Post
伯川
Circle今天发Q3财报，营收预期涨但EPS预计跌三分之一，核心原因就两条：
一是美联储降息，USDC储备收益率从4.1%掉到3.5%还在往下走；二是USDC流通量从733亿缩到约700亿，两个赚钱轮子同时减速。而且USDC放在Coinbase里的利息100%归Coinbase，外面的五五分，协议刚续签到2029年不变，Circle近60%收入被渠道分走。
今天营收超预期可能靠Arc代币预售的2.4亿美元一次性收入撑着，不算真本事。50倍前瞻PE买一个吃利息的利差生意，利率不止跌、流通量不回升，估值撑不住。
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