$BTC$ETH The CPI at 9:30 PM tomorrow might be the biggest risk this week
The market expects the overall month-on-month rate to drop from 0.6% to 0.3%, with the core month-on-month rate between 0.2% and 0.3%. But there is a big pitfall this time: last year's government shutdown caused missing year-on-year data, so we can only focus on the month-on-month figures. Any 0.1% deviation will be magnified infinitely by the market.
What we really need to watch out for is the Fed's trump card. Last week, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has been pushed close to 80%. Tomorrow's CPI is the last data before the meeting; as long as the core month-on-month rate dares to hit 0.3% or even higher, a rate hike is basically locked in.
The impact on the market is very direct. AI and semiconductor stocks have already fallen badly these past two days; if CPI exceeds expectations again, US Treasury yields will surge, high-valuation tech stocks will get hit again, and BTC won't be able to stay immune. Conversely, even if the core drops below 0.2%, it will at most be a short-term breather—don't expect a direct reversal.
My view is simple: don't bet on the direction before the data comes out. This kind of macro blind box is no different from flipping a coin to guess big or small. Reduce contract leverage early, wait for the data to land and rate hike expectations to be digested, then we can see if there is an opportunity to enter on the right side. In this market, surviving is much more important than making a lot of money. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
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