投机实验室
投机实验室
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我要验牌。
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When Bitcoin dropped below 70,000, nearly $500 million worth of positions across the network were liquidated, with the largest single order being a $31 million Bitcoin long on Hyperliquid 🥲
In 24 hours, over $1.3 billion was liquidated across the network, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $677 million, according to Coinglass.
I reviewed the 5-minute chart of Bitcoin perpetual contracts on OKX:
10:50 First drop below 70,000
11:20 Dropped below 69,000
11:50 This 5-minute candle slammed down to 68,450, with $300 million traded, and active selling was 1.7 times the active buying.
Crypto stocks weren't spared either; MSTR perpetual contracts on OKX fell 7% in 24 hours, with open interest down over 10%.
Ethereum also dropped below 2,000 for the first time since August.
There are still many long positions below 69,000; let's see how it goes when the US stock market opens tonight.
Old Huang is being chased by Congress for testimony and can't avoid Singapore: NVIDIA had $23.7 billion in revenue booked in Singapore for fiscal year 2025, accounting for nearly one-fifth, but later this Singapore entry disappeared from the financial reports 🧐
I reviewed NVIDIA's last two annual reports.
The one from February 2025 was very straightforward, stating that customers invoice centrally in Singapore, with almost all goods shipped elsewhere; less than 2% actually arrived in Singapore.
Revenue booked in Singapore rose from $2.3 billion to $6.8 billion, then to $23.7 billion over three years.
Starting from the quarter last fall, NVIDIA changed to counting revenue based on where the customer's headquarters are located, and recalculated previous years' numbers accordingly. NVIDIA says this better reflects where the revenue originates.
In the annual report from February this year, the word Singapore does not appear even once.
The company Megaspeed involved in this incident is a Singaporean company, and Alice Huang is its former executive. The C4ADS report from September said Megaspeed bought about $4.6 billion worth of NVIDIA hardware over the past few years; Megaspeed denies smuggling.
Three House committees have summoned Old Huang for a closed-door hearing on December 1 to clarify whether Chinese intelligence and chips have been transferred.
I guess that $23.7 billion in Singapore revenue will definitely be questioned that day.
Baird cut Nvidia's target price from 500 to 200, mentioning Megaspeed in the downgrade report, and said that 10% to 30% of orders in the channel might be cut early 😮💨
Analyst Tristan Gerra means that after the congressional hearing, it's unclear how the government will act, so the rating was downgraded from outperform to neutral.
He wrote two possible outcomes.
One is that the US bans selling H200 to China again.
The other is that export controls block Southeast Asian data centers, the Department of Justice takes action against Megaspeed, and data centers in this region with Chinese demand either cut orders themselves or are forced to cut.
Megaspeed is the Singapore company once managed by Huang Le, which bought $4.8 billion worth of Nvidia chips in two years.
Yesterday I checked the Federal Register; the Commerce Department hasn't added any company to the entity list in 13 months, and there is no document on Megaspeed, still zero today.
Baird also mentioned Huang Le himself; it's uncertain if he can continue until 2027.
Nvidia's earnings report is on the 17th, and on the 18th the House will hold a closed-door briefing with Huang Le.
Trump is going to Shenzhen next week for APEC without Huang. On the 18th, Congress has scheduled a closed-door session with Huang in Washington to discuss the Huang Le matter 🧐
On Sunday, when reporters asked if he would bring Huang, Trump said: "I don't know, but I will definitely bring him." By Tuesday, the New York Times reported that he wouldn't be bringing him this time.
During the May trip to Beijing, Huang wasn't originally on the list either. Trump personally called him after seeing the news, and Huang flew to Alaska on his own to board Air Force One.
The New York Times' scoop this time is about that trip: Rubio told Trump about Huang Le's intelligence on Air Force One en route to China.
On Monday, when asked at a press conference, Trump replied: "I hadn't heard about it at that time."
On the Congress side, the chairmen of the House China Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, and Intelligence Committee jointly wrote a letter inviting Huang for a closed-door briefing on the 18th, asking for a response by the 11th, which is today.
NVIDIA reports earnings on the 17th, Congress summons him on the 18th, and Trump is in Shenzhen the same day.
Today is the deadline, and the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee said on Tuesday that he couldn't say whether Huang has replied or not..
How to talk about the claim that weight loss injections cause blindness?
On the same day the FDA said weight loss injections might harm the eyes, Eli Lilly's stock closed up 4.3%, showing the market clearly didn't take this warning seriously 😂
On November 9, the FDA required all GLP-1 class drugs—including semaglutide, tirzepatide, and Eli Lilly's newly approved weight loss pills this year—to update their labels to include a risk of the rare eye disease NAION, which in severe cases can cause permanent vision loss in one eye.
On the same day, Eli Lilly issued a press release reporting that in a Phase 3 trial of their weight loss pill Foundayo, occurrences of sleep apnea dropped by over 40%, and they plan to apply to the FDA for this new indication before the end of the year.
Novo Nordisk's stock also rose 2.7% that day.
The FDA's warning added to the drug labels is not the highest-level black box warning.
I translated the FDA's original announcement: according to FDA data, among 78,000 people who received injections, only 10 cases were identified, based on a summary of 126 clinical trials.
The European Medicines Agency included this disease in the semaglutide label last June, marking it as very rare—at most one in ten thousand.
The FDA's advice for injection users is that if you have had this disease before, consult your doctor about whether to continue the injections.
Just over 20 years old and already this impressive!! JJ Simon, a finance guy from the University of Washington, used $5,000 won from playing poker to trade, and in just over a year made more than $1.8 million, equivalent to over 10 million RMB. I've exposed his strategy!!
American trader JJ Simon, just in his early twenties, has earned over 1.8 million USD, equivalent to more than 12 million RMB, all within just over a year. According to him, this money is all profit sharing from his proprietary trading firm. He started with only 5,000 USD, which he won playing poker while in college. He made a lot of money, but also spent a lot. Just on paying for assessments to get accounts, he spent over 500,000 USD, and the risks remain high. He graduated from the University of Washington in 2025, majoring in computational finance, and was an honors graduate. He says that his trading is based on what he learned in college, so he is professionally trained. Simply put, he mechanically applies that knowledge to the K-line charts. The only instrument he trades is Nasdaq futures, and he only looks at the one-minute chart, with no indicators on the chart. The one-minute chart moves very fast, so he doesn't need those. When to enter, how much profit to take, and how much loss to cut are all fixed. His trading logic is: after a large wave of buy and sell orders pushes the price out, it will sooner or later return to a fair price. For example, at 9:30 AM New York time when the market opens, overnight orders and large institutional orders flood in together, and the price often overshoots on the first move. He calls the price at the moment of the open the "fair price," meaning the fair value. The farther the price overshoots, the more profit can be made by trading back toward it. So for each time period, his approach is: first set the fair price, make a trade in the direction of the open, then wait for signals to trade back toward the fair price. First, how to set the fair price. On normal days, he uses the 9:30 AM opening price. He
Last week everyone was mocking Korean retail investors, but last night they won, no need to go to the rooftop.
They dumped $1.6 billion into bottom-fishing SOXL over the week, and last night it surged 22%🤑
SOXL is a triple-leveraged ETF for semiconductor stocks. Last Thursday it dropped nearly 40% in one day, and that was exactly when Korean retail investors jumped in. Last night, FIH (fee half) rose nearly 7%, and SOXL closed at $56. Counting from last Thursday's close, it has gained back nearly 40% in two days.
This morning, the Korean stock market also opened sharply higher, with KOSPI up 4.5% at the open.
But this rally only saved those who bottom-fished last week.
In mid-October, Korean retail investors poured over $2.5 billion into SOXL. That week, SOXL fluctuated between the 90s and 130s. Based on last night's close, those who bought that week are still down 40% to nearly 60%.
From the early October level of over 150, SOXL needs to rise another 170% to break even..
Among the 30 stocks in the US chip ETF, 29 rose tonight, with only Nvidia falling 😂
The biggest gainer was Astera Labs, up 12%, and AMD rose 9%.
Nvidia dropped more than 4%, losing nearly $200 billion in market value overnight, while AMD gained almost $70 billion.
The Nasdaq also rose 2.7%. It seems the money hasn't left the chip sector, just shifted from Nvidia to others.
