夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
全市场分析，不受局限 提供真正有价值的投资建议
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I have always been committed to sharing trading knowledge to help everyone avoid high-risk trades and investment scams. All guidance is completely free, with no charges. I do not belong to any company, organization, or platform, have no partners, no groups, and will never ask anyone to transfer money to me.
I always advise everyone to keep their money in their own accounts, learn independently, and make their own judgments. When the market declines, you can focus on coins with real projects and long-term value, buy rationally, and sell at the right time after reaching profit targets.
Sharing knowledge is done out of goodwill, with no expectation of return. Protecting your own funds is more important than anything else.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
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What supplements do super individuals need?
(Deep research version)
My stack is:
Anti-aging + High energy + Improve sleep quality + Build lean muscle strength
Basic foundation:
High-dose multivitamins
Fish oil Omega-3
D3 + K2
Nervous system & sleep:
Magnesium glycine
Anti-aging and antioxidant:
GlyNAC (NAC + Glycine) + Ergothioneine
Mitochondria & energy:
Coenzyme Q10 + PQQ
Brain & physical performance:
Creatine 5g
Core logic: supplement the foundation → antioxidant → repair mitochondria → enhance long-term energy and performance.
Also suitable for crypto community
$BTC $ZEC $QNT
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In the era of information transparency, is it really harder for financial crises to occur?
The reason past financial crises were easily brewed was largely due to slow information dissemination. Underdeveloped communication and low market transparency meant that information was held by only a few for a long time. Many risks could accumulate within the system for years, while most market participants remained unaware. By the time the problems truly surfaced, the market often had no time to react, panic spread rapidly, and it eventually evolved into a systemic crisis. Today's environment is completely different. Smartphones, the internet, and real-time information allow information to spread almost instantly worldwide. Macro data, policy changes, and market price fluctuations can all be captured by the market within seconds. Many localized risks are reacted to by the market before they have a chance to expand. From this perspective, the traditional type of financial crisis that relies on delayed information accumulation has indeed become harder to form. But things are not that simple. More information does not equal more understanding. When information spreads extremely fast, the market is also more easily surrounded by noise. True and false news mix, emotions spread faster, and market reactions are often amplified. Short-term panic, concentrated sell-offs, and instant liquidity contractions occur more frequently in modern markets. The early stage of the 2020 pandemic is a typical example. The U.S. stock market triggered four circuit breakers within just one month. It was not that the economic fundamentals suddenly collapsed within weeks, but that the market quickly formed a consensus panic under intensive information shocks. When everyone reacts in the same way simultaneously, market volatility is extremely amplified. A deeper problem actually comes from the increasing complexity of the financial system itself. The 2008 financial cri
Bitcoin has dropped to $63,800, and I am starting to reassess this bull market.
From the previous $81,000 down to $63,800, $BTC has retraced over 21% in total.
What’s more concerning is that the key support levels I’ve been watching recently have hardly produced sustained and effective rebounds.
The losses of $76,000, $73,000, and $70,000 in succession indicate that selling pressure in the market is far more severe than expected.
Now, I’m less willing to keep guessing where the final dip will be.
If BTC can’t quickly reclaim $66,000, the next step is to consider whether buying interest around $60,000 can hold.
However, my long-term view on Bitcoin hasn’t changed. $ETH $SOL
What really needs adjustment are position sizes and buying pace.
If the decline continues, I’d rather keep funds in BTC than assume altcoins are more worth bottom-fishing just because they’ve fallen more.
This round of adjustment in ETH has made me start rethinking its investment value.
Ethereum still has a huge developer ecosystem, DeFi infrastructure, and a large amount of stablecoins and on-chain assets.
But I believe that studying ETH now cannot just focus on the size of the ecosystem.
In recent years, Ethereum has continuously promoted Layer 2 scaling, and on-chain transaction costs have indeed decreased, but how the mainnet fee revenue, ETH burn volume, and the entire ecosystem's value flow back to ETH itself has become an increasingly important issue.
Especially as public chains like SOL continue to compete for users and transaction activity, ETH can no longer rely solely on its past market position to gain valuation premiums.
I still believe ETH is one of the few mainstream crypto assets worth long-term study.
But if I were to increase core positions between $BTC and ETH, I currently still lean more towards BTC.
What $ETH needs to prove is how much economic value the massive ecosystem activity can ultimately create for token holders. $SOL
If the crypto market continues to crash, what I want to buy most right now is still $BTC.
After going through so many market cycles, I am increasingly skeptical of the so-called altcoin-wide rally logic.
Many people see a coin drop from $10 to $1 and think it has fallen 90%, so it must have at least 10x potential in the future.
But the question is, why would it rise back to $10?
If the project has no stable income, no real users, and the tokens are still being unlocked continuously, then the past high price cannot serve as a valuation basis today.
In contrast, BTC at least has clear supply rules, mature market liquidity, and relatively broad institutional participation.
I am also willing to consider $ETH, $SOL, and a few protocols that can continuously generate income when their valuations are reasonable.
As for those altcoins left with only their all-time highs and community slogans, even if they drop another 90%, I probably still won’t buy.
The more the market falls now, the more I want to further concentrate my holdings.
I increasingly believe that the next crypto market cycle worth paying attention to may be DeFi protocols that can continuously generate revenue.
In the past few years, the market has given unreasonable valuations to too many projects.
A protocol with few real users and almost negligible revenue could still achieve valuations of tens of billions of dollars based on funding background, token economic models, and market narratives.
But now that capital is becoming more cautious, this approach may be difficult to sustain.
I prefer to study protocols like Aave, Uniswap, and Hyperliquid that already have actual business operations.
At least we can analyze their trading volume, lending scale, fee income, and how much value these economic activities actually create for token holders.
Of course, a protocol making money does not necessarily mean the token is worth buying.
If all the revenue belongs to the operating entity, or the token lacks a clear value capture mechanism, no matter how high the protocol’s revenue is, it may not support the token’s valuation.
In the future, I will place more emphasis on these calculable and verifiable metrics.
As for projects that only have roadmaps, funding valuations, and token unlocking plans, I am no longer very interested. $AAVE $HYPE $UNI
After this round of sharp decline, my investment criteria for altcoins will only become stricter.
In today's crypto market, I believe there are basically only three types of assets truly worth spending time researching:
The first type is Bitcoin.
$BTC remains the most important asset in the entire crypto market and is the core of my long-term holdings.
The second type includes mainstream coins like $ETH and $SOL that have real ecosystems and liquidity.
At least these public chains have real users, developers, and on-chain transaction demand, not relying solely on market speculation.
The third type consists of projects that can continuously generate revenue and whose token holders have the opportunity to share in the protocol's economic value.
For example, UNI, HYPE, etc. I focus on studying their protocol revenue, token value capture mechanisms, and whether their current valuations are reasonable.
As for the vast majority of projects without revenue, users, only token unlocks, and fundraising stories, I really see no point in holding them long-term.
The most ironic thing about this market is that many people spend years researching hundreds of altcoins, yet their returns are still worse than simply holding BTC.
Now I am increasingly unwilling to waste funds on projects without fundamental support.
Even if the market rebounds in the future, I don't believe all altcoins are worth buying.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $2 billion for two consecutive weeks.
Data released on November 14 shows that U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.07 billion last week.
Combined with the $1.28 billion outflow from the previous week, the total outflow over just two weeks is approximately $2.35 billion.
What’s even more notable is that BTC spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for seven consecutive trading days.
In the past, we believed that the emergence of ETFs would bring long-term institutional buying to Bitcoin.
But now we must also acknowledge that institutional funds are affected by macroeconomic conditions, risk appetite, and asset allocation adjustments.
When the market starts to decline continuously, ETFs do not automatically become support for Bitcoin.
What I’m most focused on now is not how much BTC has dropped, but when these funds will be willing to come back.
If ETFs continue to maintain daily net outflows of over $100 million, even if Bitcoin experiences a short-term rebound, it will be difficult to confirm that the market has completed its bottoming process. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The biggest problem in the crypto market right now might be that funds are leaving.
Recently, the supply of stablecoins has experienced a rare rapid contraction since June 2022.
This is something that deserves close attention.
Because stablecoins are one of the most important liquidity foundations in the crypto market.
When the total supply of stablecoins like USDT and USDC continues to decline, it means some dollar liquidity is exiting the on-chain system.
At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net outflows, and BTC has fallen back to around $63,800.
If funds keep withdrawing, it will be difficult for the market to recreate enough buying pressure through internal trading.
Especially since many altcoins already lack deep liquidity, once investors sell off en masse, prices could drop far more sharply than Bitcoin in a short time.
I'm not in a hurry to judge when the bull market will return.
Rather than guessing the bottom, I want to first see stablecoin supply grow again and ETF funds stop their continuous outflows. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Bitcoin suddenly plunged to $63,800!
The speed of this BTC drop has far exceeded my previous expectations.
A few days ago, it was still around $76,000, and now it has directly fallen to $63,800, a retracement of over 16% in a short time.
Previously, I thought there might be a rebound at $73,000, then I was watching support at $70,000 and $68,000, but none of these levels really held.
Now I’m starting to worry that Bitcoin might further test $60,000.
Especially with continuous net outflows from the US Bitcoin spot ETF and ongoing leveraged liquidations in the market, it’s hard to tell when the selling pressure will end in the short term.
However, BTC has already fallen sharply for several consecutive times and could see a technical rebound at any moment.
If it can climb back above $66,000 next, there’s a chance for a short-term return to $68,000–$70,000.
But before that, I won’t rush to buy heavily for now. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Recently, it is still not recommended for everyone to make too many moves
Bitcoin $BTC has already dropped this much, the liquidity in the entire crypto market is getting worse, yet retail investors are still thinking about bottom-fishing and opening leverage, trying to make back the money they lost before.
Don't forget, an exchange was previously hacked for 6.3 billion USD.
With such a huge loss, who will ultimately bear it?
I don't know what methods they will take next to make up for the loss, but I find it hard to believe that ordinary investors can easily make money from the market in this environment.
$ZEC $ETH
A warning from 10 days ago $BTC
夏木KRIS
A $6.3 billion cost
Could mean a hellish crash
Many people think that as long as full compensation is promised, this crisis is over.
But have you ever wondered where the $6.3 billion actually comes from?
This money cannot just appear out of thin air.
If it requires tapping into company reserves, risk protection funds, or even selling liquid assets to cover the gap, it means the funds originally meant to handle extreme market conditions are being heavily depleted.
What’s even scarier is that if raising funds involves selling $BTC, $ETH, or other crypto assets, the market could face a new wave of selling pressure.
And when institutions start reassessing counterparty risk and market makers reduce their exposure, overall market liquidity may also decline.
Imagine what happens when billions of potential sell orders meet an increasingly thin order book, compounded by a large number of highly leveraged positions.
Price drops trigger liquidations, liquidations bring more sell orders, and more sell orders push prices down further.
$6.3 billion might just be the first bill.
If risk reserves are depleted, asset sell-offs occur, and liquidity contracts simultaneously, the entire crypto market could face a hellish crash far beyond expectations.
比特币（BTC）在2026年11月8日的收盘价是否高于78,457美元？78K vol
