wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Strategists put themselves into the game, winning half the battle against fate. They have been doing this for 10 years already. If I don't step up to lead this time, they will continue for another 10 years. As Mr. Lu Xun said, if I remain a cold bystander today, when disaster strikes me tomorrow, no one will cheer me on. This time, with a sword raised, the sword immortals of the poker circle have all drawn their swords, slaying demons and eliminating evil, a duty they cannot shirk.
Trump painted another big promise today: if the Republicans take both chambers in the midterm elections, they will give every adult citizen $5,000. Many people in the comments section have already started calculating how much they would get.
Traders should change their mindset: such large-scale money distribution promises, if truly fulfilled, mean continued fiscal expansion → widening deficits → greater pressure on US debt supply → long-term yields harder to suppress. For leveraged risk assets, this is not candy, but a bill. Politicians' slogans are meant for voters; the market only recognizes the deficit sheet. Do you really believe he will pay it?
Woke up to more smoke in the Middle East: explosions reported near Iran's Qeshm Island waters, thick smoke and fire near a Saudi Aramco facility, and North Korea test-fired a medium-range missile again at dawn. As usual, some in the comments are shouting "War is coming, buy crypto to hedge."
Hold on. If you ask me, this kind of geopolitical escalation has never been a safe-haven buying spree for crypto. Instead, it first pushes oil prices, then inflation expectations, and finally drives US Treasury yields higher—putting pressure on risk assets. To verify, just watch one thing: whether oil and US Treasuries move. If they stay put, this wave is just background noise. $BTC, don’t overdramatize yourself.
Today $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all dropped by two points together. On the surface, this seems favorable for my short positions. But what I'm watching isn't this small floating profit, it's the underlying trend—the US stock market is rising, the dollar is retreating from its yearly high, and oil is also declining; risk appetite is actually warming up.
This is the biggest headwind for my positions: the market gives me face, but the macro environment is undermining me. The biggest taboo in trading is only looking at the half of the picture that favors you. Right now, I'm going with the short-term trend but against the medium-term one. I know exactly who I'm competing with and when I need to admit I'm wrong. For the positions you hold, the headwind side—do you dare to show it?
Many people ask me if I dare to hold positions overnight on weekends. Right now, I am short on both $BTC and $ETH, and on the spot side, I’m also holding a high beta chip as a hedge — this combination lets me sleep soundly, not because I’m certain of a drop, but because the liquidation prices of the two short legs are so far from the current price that even a spike can’t reach them.
Liquidity is thin on weekends, and the biggest fear is never being wrong on direction, but getting stopped out by an unreasonable spike. The position structure must first be able to withstand spikes before we talk about whether the direction is right or not. How do you handle your weekend? Do you hold bare-handed, or keep a backup plan?
This morning, a bunch of chip news stacked together only makes sense when viewed collectively: Broadcom is planning to invest $60 billion aggressively into AI chips, Toshiba is doubling its data center HDD capacity for the first time in five years with a major move, and even Google has raised the price of its entry-level Pixel by $100 due to storage cost increases. On one side, AI infrastructure is being heavily funded, while on the other, costs are already starting to pass on to consumers. As a trader, I don't just watch this for entertainment—when capex is burning at this level, the key question is when the returns will catch up. The more fiercely money is burned, the louder the bubble will burst. $BTC is now tied to the tech giants; when they catch their breath, crypto will tremble along. Do you believe "this time is different," or do you believe in cycles?
Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve when dealing with risk assets. This morning, Japan's Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki made consecutive statements: the government is trying to convince the market that Sanae Takaichi "is not pursuing re-inflation," and also mentioned that the exchange rate trend has changed after joint intervention. To translate— the Japanese government is sending a warning to the market, fearing the yen will be sold off again. What does this have to do with the crypto world? The yen is the world's largest source of cheap funding; once carry trades are forced to close, the first to get drained are high-risk assets, and $BTC won't escape. Everyone remembers how the flash crash in August 2024 happened. Keep an eye on the yen, not just the K-line.
The U.S. Cabinet held a closed-door meeting at Camp David for several hours on Friday, discussing the next steps regarding Iran and the Houthis—such unannounced meetings last happened just days before Israel took action against Iran last year. In the comments, some are shouting "War is here, quickly buy $BTC to hedge." Hold on. The pattern over the past two years is clear: geopolitical escalation → oil prices rise → inflation sticks → rate hike expectations return → gold and $BTC both fall. War is currently not priced as a safe haven but as "more rate hikes coming." If you really want to understand the risk, watch the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, not the crypto price line. Do you think this time will be different?
Many people think "kongshen" means going all-in short, but that's wrong. Right now, I am indeed short on both $BTC and $ETH, but I keep a high beta position on the spot side—just in case the market squeezes, it helps me bear some of the sentiment and drawdown. My net position is bearish, not naked. This morning, $BTC surged to 87,000 then was pushed back to just above 84,000, leaving a long upper wick, which perfectly confirms this rebound lacks volume. Winners at the table rarely push all their chips out at once; the real edge is "direction + structure," not "direction + all-in." When you short, do you leave yourself a hedge?