FIL at $0.89, do you dare to add to your position?
First, look at the surface: good news everywhere, but the price has dropped.
On September 13-14, FIL surged from 0.80 directly to 1.04, a single-day increase of 18%. On October 15, Filecoin's six-year linear unlock ended, cutting the annual new issuance from 88 million to 22 million, a 75% reduction in gross issuance!
Supply cut by three-quarters, yet the price didn’t skyrocket? The result? Today it dropped to a low of 0.881, currently at 0.89. Those who bought at the 1.04 peak are now stuck on the mountaintop.
First point: The supply inflection is real, but what you bought was "expectation," not "reality."
After October 15, FIL’s annual new issuance indeed dropped from about 88 million to about 22 million, a 75% cut. This is the biggest supply structure change since the mainnet launch, bar none.
October 15 will not suddenly remove any coins from the market. It just means "fewer new coins entering daily" going forward. Before the unlock ended, about 180,000 coins were still released linearly each day.
A 30% surge in two days priced in the "reduction expectation" all at once. First the bubble is squeezed, then repriced — that’s the norm.
Second point: The supply story is solid, but the demand figures are weak.
Filecoin Pay annualized revenue: about $663 in January, about $59,327 by the end of August.
Active paying addresses: 73 → 119.
You read that right. Annualized paying revenue of $59,000 with a market cap of $730 million.
So what if supply is cut by 75%? If no one pays for storage, reducing issuance just cuts the supply of something nobody wants.
This is not a fundamental bull market confirmation; it’s an oversold rebound plus event-driven impulse in a long-term bear market.
Third point: Tomorrow is the FOMC, and FIL is ten times more fragile than BTC.
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on the 17th, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.
Latest CME odds: about 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate hike expectation since July 2023 and a key dot plot meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh.
Expected hike + hawkish dot plot → altcoins continue deleveraging, FIL tests 0.80 first.
Hike but dovish statement → risk assets pulse rebound, FIL retraces to 0.95-1.00, but that’s a window to reduce positions, not a new trend confirmation.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself.
On the bullish side:
- 75% supply cut on October 15, real supply inflection
- Filecoin Onchain Cloud, Fil One (S3 compatible, $4.99/TB/month), on-chain storage gas fees down 85%
- AI/hard drive price hike narrative overlay
- Still +30% in the past month
On the bearish side:
- Annualized paying demand only $59,000, almost negligible
- Narrative peaked on September 13-14, heavy resistance at 1.04
- Open interest surged 70% then price fell back, risk of long liquidation
- 90% chance of FOMC rate hike, altcoins hit first
Resistance above: 0.93-0.95 (gap zone) → 1.00 (psychological level) → 1.04 (peak)
Support below: 0.88 (today’s low) → 0.85 → 0.80-0.81 (launch platform) → 0.77-0.78 (September lows)
Daily close below 0.77 means this breakout has completely failed.
Trading strategy
For those already in:
Current price still profitable, reduce position by 30%-50%, lock cost below 0.8. Those chasing above 0.95 should prioritize stop loss or reduce to a test position.
For those with no position wanting to trade short-term:
Wait for a rebound to short:
Light short positions at 0.93-0.96, stop loss if 4H close above 1.00, targets 0.88 → 0.85 → 0.8.
Wait for a drop then go long on rebound:
First watch for volume contraction and bottoming at 0.80-0.82, more comfortable at 0.77-0.78. Stop loss below 0.75. Rebound targets 0.88 → 0.93, reduce near 0.95.
Only if daily closes back above 0.95 and BTC strengthens simultaneously should 1.00-1.04 be considered a breakout.
The 75% supply cut is a fact, but if no one pays for storage, reducing issuance just cuts the supply of something nobody wants.
0.89 is not the start of a major uptrend; it’s the mid-slope after a peak and fall.
You’re betting on the October 15 supply cut; the whales are betting you’ll buy at 0.89.
October 15 is a mid-term theme, not a reason to go all-in today.
At 0.89, do you dare to add to your position? $BTC$ETH$FIL
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