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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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9.1美元的UNI,追L了吗? 先看表面:从没人要到抢着要,只用了48小时。 9月17日涨17%,18日再涨13%,周线暴涨45%,月线暴涨140%。24小时成交爆量,合约持仓量飙升,空头爆仓远超多头。周线突破了近两年的下降楔形,日线站上全部主要均线,多头排列,趋势转强——但短线RSI已经烫手了。 第一件事:SEC给UNI递了一把刀,市场瞬间懂了。 9月17日,SEC发布“创新豁免”,允许合格场所通过许可型AMM交易代币化美股,为期5年。 Uniswap v4的许可池,正好就是这个架构。 以前UNI是“去中心化交易所的治理代币”,现在它成了“华尔街资产上链的合规基础设施”。 第二件事:UNI不是空气了,它开始销毁了。 2025年底UNIfication落地,协议费开关打开,部分交易费用于回购销毁。8月单月销毁930万美元的UNI,2026年1-7月协议收入约2820万。 累计成交3.7万亿美元,TVL 38亿,多链部署,DEX绝对龙头。如果代币化股票真的上链,如果RWA真的爆发,UNI就是那个收过路费的。 你现在嫌它贵,等它真把华尔街的成交量吃进来,你又会拍大腿说“当初9块怎么没买”。 第三件事:技术面质变了,但短线追高就是送人头。 周线突破两年下降楔形,200周EMA从阻力变成支撑,日线均线多头排列——中期结构确实转多了。 但是: 6.6到9.3,一口气涨了40%,中间没像样回调 低周期RSI超买,周末流动性差,假突破概率高 合约资金费率偏正,OI上升,多头拥挤 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: SEC创新豁免直接利好Uniswap v4许可池 协议费开关+销毁机制,UNI有了现金流捕获 RWA+代币化美股叙事打开增量天花板 周线突破两年下降楔形,中期结构转多 一边是: 短线超买严重,回踩需求强烈 Clarity Act未通过,监管仍存变数 加息落地偏鹰,山寨流动性承压 竞争DEX(Aerodrome等)持续分流 上方阻力:9.34-9.50 → 10-11 → 12.70(楔形目标) 下方支撑:8.80-8.90 → 8.11 → 7.69 → 7.50(生死线) 操作策略 激进短线: 回踩8.8-8.9快速收回+成交量配合,轻仓试多,止损8.65下方,目标9.3-9.5减仓。 稳健波段: 等回踩7.7-8.2区间,缩量止跌或底部结构出现,再布局中线多单。中期逻辑是协议费销毁+RWA叙事,目标10.5-12.7,止损7.4或日线收盘破7.5。 空头思路: 9.35-9.5放量滞涨、长上影或背离,轻仓试空,目标8.8,止损9.6以上 6块6的时候你嫌它是治理代币,9块3的时候你又说追高风险大。 那请问,你到底打算什么时候买? UNI已经从“纯治理代币”变成“有销毁机制+RWA想象空间”的资产。中期结构转多,但短期从6.6一口气到9.3,属于情绪高潮,需要时间消化。 优先等回踩确认,而不是在9.1追高。 9.1这个位置,你敢追吗? $BTC $ETH $UNI
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
ZEC has surged 3,009% over the past year. From being outside the top 82 to breaking into the global top ten by market cap, its circulating market cap has soared to $26.6 billion. Up 34% in 7 days, 183% in 30 days. A year ago, ZEC was hovering around $82. Now? $1,588. This is not a rebound, this is revenge. Garrett Jin, one of the biggest short sellers of ZEC. Holding about 38,000 ZEC short positions, with a position value close to $59 million, average short price $665. Current price $1,588, unrealized loss of $33.83 million. Liquidation price $4,790. What did he do? Sold ETH to cover margin and added more shorts. Added another 5,000 short positions at $1,252. One person losing $33 million and still not giving up—do you think he will win? Another short seller wasn’t so tough. This morning, when ZEC pulled to $1,584, a whale holding for half a month was forced to liquidate, realizing a loss of $10.68 million. Even more painful: this address previously had a 79% trading win rate, earned $9.11 million since June, and just lost it all in this trade. Won a hundred times, lost once and back to square one. NU7 upgrade governance vote, 2.4 million ZEC participated, accounting for 66% of the eligible total, setting a record. 98.9% support retaining the Bitcoin-style halving mechanism, rejecting a smooth issuance curve. 99.9% support reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, doubling throughput. Mainnet activation on November 5. The community won’t negotiate “take it slow.” If halving is needed, do a hard halving; if speeding up, double it. Grayscale ZEC spot ETF has been online for two weeks, with assets under management surpassing $500 million, holding over 550,000 ZEC, about 3% of circulating supply. Since listing on August 25, it has attracted over $70 million in inflows, and DCG has reinvested $100 million. $500 million in two weeks—this is not retail FOMO, this is institutional accumulation. EU Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (EU) 2024/1624, effective July 10, 2027. All regulated EU exchanges must delist privacy coins like ZEC and XMR. No listing, no custody, no facilitation of trading. It’s not a question of "if," but "when." The answer is written: less than 10 months. Institutions are buying, shorts are holding, upgrades are imminent, bans are looming. ZEC’s window of opportunity is real. But the window has a time limit, that’s also real. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC逼近1600美元,多空博弈升温

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