The expectation of an interest rate hike in October has cooled down, but the market has become even more nervous.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
Because the real question now is no longer "whether there will be a rate hike," but rather—has inflation truly started to ease?
In the latest data, August's core PCE year-over-year dropped to 3.0%, below the market's original expectation of 3.3%, which clearly reduced the expectation of a rate hike in October. This change is very important for BTC: the pressure from interest rates has temporarily eased, and the sentiment for risk assets has received some support.
But don't rush to interpret this as the end of good news.
Because in the Fed's own forecast, the median core PCE in 2026 is still at 3.4%, indicating that inflation is still far from the 2% target.
So what the market will really watch next is not just whether the PCE is "good or bad," but whether the cooling of inflation can be sustained.
BTC now seems more like it is waiting for a confirmation signal: after macro pressure eases, will capital really come back?
ETH is also worth watching. If risk appetite continues to improve, will capital further spread from BTC to ETH and other high-elasticity assets?
The first hurdle in October has passed.
But what may truly determine the market's next phase rhythm might just be beginning.
$BTC$ETH
