There is no problem with revising the data; the issue lies in getting the market to trust this data. However, so far, the market has not shown much satisfaction with tonight's PCE revision.
Two hours after the August PCE was released, the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a new high. What does this indicate?
It indicates that the market does not interpret this PCE downward revision as a removal of long-term inflation risk. Moreover, the issues on the long bond side have become more complex than just inflation concerns. Term premium, fiscal supply, real interest rates, and long-term policy uncertainty are all major factors driving continued selling of long bonds.
Furthermore, the continued rise in long bond yields directly offsets the positive impact of the revised PCE on risk assets, putting more pressure on risk assets. Therefore, after the PCE data release, I believe we still need to observe the market's trust in the data before discussing what comes next.
Of course, regarding bond market risks, a concluding comment is necessary: the bond market risk has not yet fully expanded. Next, pay attention to gold's movement. If long bond yields continue to rise alongside gold, it means the bond market's credit system itself is being questioned, which is one of the biggest risk points for the bond market! #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
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