陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Why did Zhu Yuanzhang start by eliminating all the civil officials and aristocrats?
Because they really were a hindrance! Just look at the current party struggles in the US to understand—it's all about protecting their own little circles of interest, using every means possible, extremely vicious and disgusting.
They aren't blind to the bright future ahead; they're smarter than most people, otherwise they wouldn't have become part of these families or aristocratic clans.
But they can only be pushed along, driven by human greed and evil; one can only say that Musk and Huang Renxun are outstanding figures of the era, and this world doesn't deserve them…
An elderly northerner who moved to the south feels:
Having fewer children and ensuring good birth quality might really not just be a slogan. It feels like there's a pretty obvious difference between only children and those with siblings.
I have a friend’s family with 4 daughters and 1 son. Sometimes when we go out together, those 4 daughters clearly show on their faces how much they envy my son (an only child).
A discussion on my subjective perspective of the crypto space:
1. Core
$BTC and $ETH, as native core assets in the crypto space, have already been tested through several cycles; as the main BETA allocation in crypto, BTC has relatively low volatility but strong certainty; ETH has relatively higher volatility and can be unpredictable, but it offers more imagination (see Figure 1 ETH).
2. Old-timers
From the recent BTC rise from 57 to 87, many old-timers have fallen behind, including DOGE, XRP, ADA, BCH, ETC, LTC, and so on...
What does falling behind mean? BTC’s cycle is large, altcoins’ cycles are smaller. If altcoins cannot significantly outperform BTC during BTC’s rally, good market sentiment, and overall FOMO environment, then they are already stale. What we can see is that as traders have more tradable assets (like US stocks) and more ways to issue crypto assets, these old-timers’ ultimate fate is slow death (not dying outright, but gradually losing funding attention over time). ETC and LTC are already showing their endgame.
3. Platform tokens
Platform tokens like $BNB and $HYPE are completely tied to their platforms. If you want to allocate to them, I think you only need to consider whether they can significantly outperform BTC or ETH in the upcoming trading cycle. If the answer is no, then there’s no point. Platform binding has its advantages—platform support—but also its downsides—platforms can collapse. So, who still remembers the bankrupt $FTT?
4. Whales and pump tokens
Every cycle, I mean every cycle, new altcoins emerge in the crypto space (new rising altcoins). I divide them into Western and Asian types.
Western type: Similar to $ZEC, $NEAR, including last cycle’s KAS, RNDR, etc.; usually with long positioning times and growth cycles, possibly following an entire bull market, with manipulation cycles lasting 1-2 years or even several years. These are absolute high-quality ALPHA in a bull market.
Asian type: I won’t say much, there are too many. Manipulation cycles range from several months to just minutes. Personally, I think this money is better left for the pros to earn.
5. Back to the core
With the upgrades of trading platforms, around core assets, besides contracts, we now have more strategies, such as options, ETFs, 2X ETFs, DATs, and so on.
6. Still the E-guardians!
Last night the Nasdaq had a big rebound, but $BTC did not follow. My understanding is that it's a matter of timing.
1. At the start, BTC bulls showed strong resistance, refusing a deep pullback, but it was still dragged down by the US stock market;
2. So when the US stock market, especially certain tech stocks, have already fallen to a good value, naturally the priority for capital purchases will be higher than Bitcoin.
Since the timing has clearly changed, we should then deduce the subsequent trend according to the possibly changed timing;
Personally, I lean towards the black line scenario, because currently:
1. The panic sentiment in the US stock market has been fully released;
2. Oil prices are declining;
3. There is no escalation between the US and Iran.
All the negative factors visible in the market have already been realized.
From a technical perspective:
1. Bitcoin has reached a key support level;
2. The liquidity for bulls below has just been obtained.
Therefore, I believe it is unlikely to continue dropping from this position. The most probable movement is some consolidation followed by a rebound, although it might only be a rebound.
RT @qinbafrank: Three envoys are heading to the Middle East together; recently China has really been stepping up its efforts in the Middle East situation. The core purpose is exactly what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced: to urge peace talks, promote negotiations, and ease tensions.…
