tvbee
tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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Some people are focused on Google's plunge, while others are holding onto Binance Alpha's $500 profit. Has no one noticed that Bitcoin has climbed back to 81,500?
Yesterday, many KOLs said that Walsh was hawkish, but actually Walsh is dovish; the hawkish tone came from the FOMC statement.
The US stock market was dragged down a bit by Google, but BTC did catch a breather. Tonight's PCE data met expectations, and BTC climbed back above 81,000.
But actually, tonight's data is not favorable.
First, the core PCE year-over-year and month-over-month rates met expectations, but the year-over-year rate is 3.1%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value.
Although the comparability between the year-over-year and previous values is limited, what the Fed wants is not for PCE to stabilize, but for PCE to decline.
As for the core PCE annualized quarterly rate in Q3 and the GDP deflator, since oil prices hadn't risen in Q1 and overall oil prices peaked in Q2, this does not indicate inflation is easing.
It is highly likely there will be another rate hike in December.
Second, the initial Q3 real GDP exceeded expectations and was far above the previous value, indicating the macro economy is still quite strong.
The Fed should be able to handle another rate hike in December.
Third, both personal consumption and personal income month-over-month rates were below expectations and previous values.
This indicates that the overall growth of the US economy is still driven by the AI industry, but personal income and spending growth are not ideal.
Therefore, it is highly likely there will be one more rate hike in December, while the probability of further hikes next year is lower because employment and personal consumption may not withstand very high interest rates.
Yesterday I bought some $GOOGL at 325 and 303, and also placed some orders at 280 and 270 respectively.
So now I'm afraid of missing the buy, but also afraid of getting it... 🤣
Who can understand this feeling?
Tonight's FOMC meeting content is quite rich, but it can be summarized in three words — a breather
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
┈➤No rate hike in October, the market takes a breather
No rate hike in October, as expected. However, the FOMC statement described the economy as strong, employment as steady, and inflation as high. Therefore, a rate hike in December is still very likely.
┈➤Waller is more dovish, the market takes a breather
Waller proposed a financial product — an inflation swap contract, which can reflect the financial market's expectations for future inflation. Waller pointed out that this indicator shows the market expects inflation to "move in a favorable direction" in the future.
Waller's remarks can be considered quite clearly dovish.
┈➤FOMC reform, both the Fed and the market get a breather
At this FOMC meeting, Waller pushed for a reform where there may be 1 to 2 meetings per year in which officials only discuss and do not vote on rate decisions.
This means that there may only be 7 to 8 rate decisions per year. Fed officials can have an extra month or two to observe, potentially reducing work pressure.
And whether in a rate hike or rate cut cycle, the market's pace may slow down somewhat.
It is expected that in 2027 there will definitely be an FOMC meeting in September that only discusses without voting.
Are Coinbase and Binance trading in opposite directions? What is the market trend?
From Feng Xiong's perspective, the focus is on the capital flows of USDC and USDT. Coinbase mainly trades with USDC pairs, while Binance mainly trades with USDT pairs.
┈➤ USDT funds no longer show obvious outflows
Meanwhile, the market cap of USDC has decreased several times recently. The outflow of USDT funds is relatively smaller. After October 20, USDT funds basically stopped flowing in. See Figure 1.
┈➤ OTC price rises: retail funds begin to enter
Although the USD to RMB exchange rate continues to decline, as shown in Figure 2.
However, the OTC price of USDT has been on an upward trend since October 23, as shown in Figure 3. Therefore, retail funds are starting to enter.
┈➤ No obvious signs of institutional fund inflows yet
However, the overall market cap of USDT still shows no growth trend. As shown in Figure 4, on October 27, USDT had a small amount of fund inflow, while USDC experienced outflows.
On October 28, USDC temporarily had a small inflow of funds, but the USDT market cap dropped significantly again.
Institutional funds may not have flowed in.
This recent rally is most likely due to Hynix's earnings report injecting confidence into the market.
But with retail funds starting to enter and no obvious signs of institutional inflows yet, the trend is likely still downward. Around the midterm elections and after, political reshuffling may also impact the macroeconomy. There may be further reasons for a decline ahead.
SK Hynix's financial report is quite interesting, and there are also industry trends here
┈➤ The market's focus remains on the trend of actual performance
Interestingly, the Q2 financial report's net profit and EPS exceeded expectations, but the actual performance was not ideal, so the stock price fell. In contrast, the Q3 financial report's net profit and EPS missed expectations, but the actual performance was good, and the stock price rose.
Q2's operating revenue missed expectations; the net profit growth came from the depreciation of the Korean won and a large sale of idle assets.
Q3 operating revenue and operating profit grew well, but net profit declined due to the appreciation of the Korean won.
It is speculated that the Q2 EPS beat was a consolation for shareholders from SK Hynix, while Q3 did not need such a consolation.
Brother Feng lost the prediction but won the stock price, $SKHY average holding cost is $138.
┈➤ SK Hynix's performance and the storage supply-demand trend
SK Hynix's operating revenue and operating profit are still in an accelerating growth trend. However, the growth rate of operating profit is lower than that of operating revenue.
Therefore, although the operating profit margin and gross margin are still on a growth trend, there is a trend of slowing growth in 26Q2.
This may reflect the supply-demand trend of AI storage, which is still in a state of undersupply, but for now, the gap may be narrowing. Further observation of Q4 data is needed.
Looking only at SK Hynix's financial data, AI storage still has room for growth. Let's check SanDisk later. The hand-drawn charts are ugly, please bear with them.
This week, the US stock market is about to experience an exciting three days.
A number of leading stocks are about to release their earnings reports, and the new season of OKX's US stock earnings prediction battle has also begun.
Actually, accurately predicting earnings beats from start to finish is very difficult. If you base it on the company's operations to guess whether the earnings are good, that's doable. But guessing how the company's accountants will handle the numbers based on Wall Street institutions' EPS forecasts is very hard.
I still just blindly buy Yes. As analyzed before, GAAP data follows accounting standards, and accountants will most likely try to find ways to make EPS meet or even exceed expectations.
Last quarter, SK Hynix's operating profit actually did not meet expectations, but due to large asset sales, it generated significant non-operating income, so EPS beat expectations. However, this quarter is a buildup phase; HBM4 and 1c nanometer process DRAM were launched last quarter, so this quarter should be the growth stage. Although market expectations are not low, this time the earnings report probably won't cause a sharp drop right after release. I also bought some SK Hynix expecting the stock to rise on the earnings release day. This 0.59 feels like a better value, haha.
Robinhood is the opposite. Last quarter's earnings were very good. The expected EPS was about 0.43, but the actual was 0.62. So this quarter's expectations are not very high, expected at 0.56. I bought Yes, but with a relatively small position.
tvbee
Feels like this has a better cost-performance ratio
SK海力士（SKHY）财报发布后首个完整交易日会上涨吗？-18.33%
PositionYes | 21.64 shares
Current PnL-2.38 xp
Forgive me for being a bit blunt
Brother Feng has previously published several articles analyzing that the bull market hasn't arrived yet, and now it's a period of consolidation.
As a result, some bullish friends unfollowed Brother Feng, and some even specifically notified him in the comments "unfollowed."
Now, Brother Feng will bluntly borrow Lei Jun's famous phrase to ask these friends—Are you OK?
Then, more kindly, let's talk about STRC. BTC has dropped back to around 80,000, but $STRC is still above $99, having briefly fallen to 98.99 pre-market but now back above $99.
Last month, when BTC rose to around 80,000, STRC's price was approximately $95~$97.
BTC and crypto have most likely passed their darkest moment; expecting it to rise to 200,000 or fall to 30,000 is unrealistic.
We cannot rule out the emergence of macro systemic risks, which might trigger a 3/12 event, but Brother Feng does not believe it will break the 60,000~70,000 low points, since even the 3/12 event did not break previous lows.
BTC may find support around 70,000 because that is near previous highs.
Before the internet bubble burst in 2000, there were multiple instances:
The Nasdaq 100 was rising, but the S&P was falling. These occurred in August-September 1999 and February 2000.
It was likely that the leading internet tech stocks were draining liquidity from the US stock market.
The most recent similar phenomenon happened in December 2024, and indeed the US stock market experienced a correction from February to May 2025. Although this might be a coincidence, as it was when Trump was imposing tariffs.
However, from 2025 to now, such a monthly pattern has not appeared. The NDX and SPX monthly charts are highly synchronized.
Instead, in July 2026, the Nasdaq 100 was correcting while the S&P was rising.
Brother Feng has analyzed more than once that the market is deliberately avoiding a replay of past history.
Iran and Trump are exchanging barbs, and the market has gradually become desensitized to this kind of news, with speculation that there could be significant volatility by the end of the year.
Trump said Iran is a failed state, while Iran said Trump's remarks reveal desperation. Trump also said tonight, "The Iran war could end very soon."
However, oil prices have not shown any obvious reaction; the market is gradually desensitized to this kind of information. The highest point for WTI oil prices appeared in March, and subsequent highs have been declining.
But after July, the lows in oil prices have been rising.
First, oil prices are generally showing a converging trend, with the convergence peak around the end of the year. With Christmas approaching, the market may experience volatility.
Second, it is estimated that in the midterm elections, Trump's Republican Party will at least lose the House of Representatives, leading to a change in the party controlling policy, which could bring market volatility before the end of the year.
Third, with the temporary fiscal expectations expiring at the end of the year, the two parties will have to vote on the budget again. If the vote does not produce a final result, the government could shut down again.
Fourth, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise interest rates again in December. If the dot plot is hawkish or slightly hawkish, that would be another negative factor.
