彪哥_
彪哥_
100U → 1000U ♻️ 交易就是循环复利，赚了继续滚，亏了重新来。 这里记录真实交易、行情判断和复盘。 欧易官方个人社区已开启👇 一起聊行情，一起找机会，一起循环复利。
78Following
1.1Kfollowers
Feed
Feed
$BTC just opened a short position near 83400.
This time it's not because I think BTC is about to crash, it's purely that this level makes me reluctant to chase longs.
On the 1-hour chart, the price previously surged from 82501 to 84544, a big push, but it clearly met resistance near 84500, then quickly dropped to around 83000. Now the price has rebounded back to around 83400, but the volume is no longer as significant as during the previous drop.
My own thinking is simple: short near 83400, betting on a pullback after the rebound.
If it breaks below 83000 again, I will continue to watch around 82500; if instead it rallies with volume back above 84000, I will admit this short was wrong and not fight the market.
Actually, I’m increasingly disliking trading by "guessing the big direction."
Yesterday I placed a long at 81800 but it didn’t fill, and today I didn’t chase longs just because I missed the entry. I wait to act when I feel the odds are right, cut losses if wrong, no need for explanations.
This short position is currently just a trading plan, not a trend judgment.
The most interesting levels for BTC right now are actually 82500 and 84500. Which side breaks first, I prefer to wait for the market to tell me.
First, focus on managing this trade well, don’t try to eat the whole move in one bite.
+7.19%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 10:56
These past two days, I still placed a BTC long order at 81800, but it hasn't been filled yet.
Yesterday, the lowest actually hit 82501, just a bit away from my position, but it just didn't go down further. Now it's back around 83500, and I can only watch this order.
What concerns me more is that the market turnover has clearly increased; the 24-hour turnover has reached 1.55 trillion USD, much larger than before. The market isn't just slowly declining; there are buyers around 82500, and if it falls, it quickly gets pulled back.
But I won't chase longs just because I missed the 81800 fill.
From the 1-hour chart, around 83300 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears, pressure starts near 84000, and above 85000-85100 is still a dense previous trading zone. If it really wants to be strong, it needs to hold above 84000 first; if it returns to around 82500 again, my 81800 order is still there.
Sometimes trading is just this frustrating:
You want to wait for a cheaper price, but the market doesn't give it to you; you don't want to chase highs, but you're afraid it will just run away.
But I'd rather earn less than to change my plan temporarily just because I "have to get in."
Not getting filled isn't scary; chasing recklessly is what really causes problems.
+168.72%
Snapshot at Sep 29, 2026, 07:42
$BTC has been really frustrating these past couple of days.
It surged to 85242 then dropped back down, now around 84188. The 1-hour BOLL middle band is at 84605, upper band at 85039, lower band at 84171. It looks like it can't fall further, but it also can't break above 85,000.
I'm actually paying more attention to $CL now.
A few days ago, there was news of easing tensions between the US and Iran, causing CL to quickly fall back, and BTC followed with a recovery from the lows. But over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran's proposal to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days," and today crude oil is moving back up. The latest CL is around $93, and the market clearly hasn't treated the Hormuz risk as resolved.
This is very critical for BTC.
If oil prices keep rising, the energy shock will continue to pressure inflation and risk appetite; conversely, if CL falls back down, BTC will have room to continue recovering. The market has previously shown a synchronized reaction of "oil up, BTC down," so I'm reluctant to focus solely on BTC's candlestick now.
My current trading view is simple: watch if 84000 can hold first, look for a breakout above 85000, and around 86600 is a clear resistance left from before.
The biggest fear at this level is getting whipsawed back and forth.
So I'd rather be slower now, watch how oil prices move first, then decide whether BTC is truly bottoming or just sideways waiting for the next news to hit.
In trading, I've found that what really affects position sizing often isn't the candlestick itself, but whether what's behind the candlestick has changed
-122.95%
Snapshot at Sep 28, 2026, 06:46
This time shorting $BTC, I'll first lay out my own trading logic.
Shorted at 83920, now the price has returned above 84300, temporarily stuck with a loss of over four hundred points. Honestly, opening a short at this position is uncomfortable, but I'm not simply looking at whether the K-line falls or not.
A few days ago, Iran proposed a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. The market once started trading along the line of "easing → oil price falling → risk assets recovering." But the latest development is that Trump publicly rejected Iran's plan, so the supply risk behind Hormuz has not truly been resolved.
So now I'm more focused on $CL, rather than just BTC alone.
If the geopolitical situation continues to be deadlocked, oil prices rise again, and inflation and risk appetite pressures remain, this round of BTC correction from around 83200 to 84300, I would instead treat it as a rebound to observe.
From the chart, BTC surged to 87374 in the 4-hour timeframe and then dropped sharply, now grinding around 84000. 84000 is the most awkward position for this short: if it doesn't fall, I admit I was wrong; if it continues down, it means this rebound might just be a correction.
So I won't add to this position for now, nor rush to prove I was right.
After trading for a long time, I realize the real pain isn't being stuck with a few hundred points loss, but constantly finding reasons to justify your mistakes after being stuck.
This time, I'll focus on one thing: whether 84000 is true support or just a rebound giving shorts a chance to exit.
-75.48%
Snapshot at Sep 27, 2026, 07:43
Lately, I've been a bit off in my market focus. I used to keep my eyes on $BTC all the time, but today I actually think $CL crude oil is more worth watching.
There's an interesting development on the US-Iran front: Iran has proposed that if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days; the market has already started pricing in this expectation. $WTI has fallen from nearly $96 a few days ago down to around $92 on Friday. But on the other hand, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean supply risks haven't truly disappeared.
This is actually very critical for BTC.
If oil continues to fall, the market's worries about "energy shock → inflation → higher interest rates" will ease a bit, and risk assets will naturally feel more comfortable; but if the Strait of Hormuz runs into trouble again and oil prices get pushed back up, high-volatility assets like BTC will likely face another round of pressure.
BTC dropped from around 87,200 to about 82,900 a few days ago, then recovered yesterday, and is still hovering around 84,000. At this level, going long or short is easy to get slapped.
I've now set a very simple observation for myself: first see if CL can continue to hold down, then see if BTC can stabilize above 84,000.
If oil falls and BTC holds steady, risk appetite can be said to have truly returned; if oil suddenly rallies again while BTC is still grinding near 84,000, I'd rather trade less than take positions to bet on the next piece of news.
My biggest takeaway these days is: when trading news, don't just look at the headlines; see if the headlines actually move the price.
+168.72%
Snapshot at Sep 26, 2026, 08:36
Yesterday, I was actually waiting for $BTC to give me an opportunity around 81800, placing an order there, but it didn't get filled.
Later, the market really dropped, hitting a low of 82812, which was only about a thousand points away from my price. At that moment, I felt a bit regretful, thinking I missed another "buy the dip" opportunity.
But looking back today, I actually think it’s not a bad thing that the order didn’t fill.
Because the market didn’t continue to drop; instead, it recovered from 82800 all the way back up, now around 84800. The 1-hour BOLL middle band has already reached 84129, with resistance first seen near 85000, and above that is the previous high zone around 86600-87000.
This kind of market easily makes people regret: when you don’t buy, you feel like you missed out, and when it rises back, you can’t help but chase.
So this time, I’m holding back. If the 81800 order didn’t fill, it didn’t fill; you don’t have to participate in every trade.
Sometimes, the money you didn’t make and the money you didn’t lose are essentially not the same thing.
+168.72%
Snapshot at Sep 25, 2026, 10:24
Just got hit again.
Seeing $BTC break below 84000, I couldn't resist chasing a short, but the lowest it hit was 83707, then it quickly pulled back above 84200. Now the short position is directly stuck.
The most ironic part is: when I saw it break below 84000, I thought in my head, "Support is broken, there should be more downside," but the market only gave me a few hundred points of room before starting to recover.
Right now, the 15-minute BOLL middle band is around 84300, the lower band near 83980, and that recent drop clearly came with increased volume.
I won't stubbornly hold this trade or add to my position to average down.
This reminds me of an old problem again: breaking support ≠ trend confirmation; often it's just a trap to lure in those chasing shorts first.
The hardest part of trading isn't finding opportunities, but not rushing to prove yourself right after being wrong.
-36.15%
Snapshot at Sep 24, 2026, 10:34
What I find most interesting about this wave is not "BTC surging to 87,000, total market cap returning to 3 trillion," but how the market reacts after the surge.
From the chart, BTC quickly fell back after reaching 87,245, hitting a low of 83,439, and now has rebounded to around 84,300. In other words, the news looks hot, but the market has already given a stress test.
I separate "large ETF inflows" from "price continuing to rise." Funds are indeed coming in, but in the short term, there are options expirations, profit-taking after the surge, and short covering all overlapping, which tends to amplify volatility.
If it were me now, I wouldn’t rush to short around 84,000, since we just experienced a rapid drop; but I also wouldn’t chase longs just because the total market cap has returned to 3 trillion.
I want to wait for an answer: can 84,000 truly hold steady?
If it holds, it means this pullback is just digestion; if it doesn’t, the surge to 87,000 needs to be redefined.
In this market, the hype is real, and the funds are real, but when the money enters and whether it can push the price higher afterward are two different things.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
+168.72%
Snapshot at Sep 24, 2026, 08:37
Recently, $ZEC has been really strong, surging to around 1628 in 4 hours, +5.5% intraday, +30% in 7 days, and even more impressive +650% in 180 days.
But now I'm actually hesitant to chase.
Because $BTC has returned to around 85,000 in the past two days, and $ETH is also recovering, but ZEC's momentum is clearly much stronger than BTC and ETH.
I've been burned by this kind of market before: seeing strength and chasing, only to have a single pullback wipe out the profits.
Now I'd rather wait. If ZEC really has sustained capital inflow this time, we shouldn't just watch if it can break through 1628, but also see if there's support around 1500 on a pullback.
The biggest fear for a strong coin isn't slow growth, but everyone thinking "it can still go up" and rushing in together.
I'd rather earn less for a while than provide liquidity to the market again.
$SNDK I got in again this time, going long around 1742.
To be honest, I'm not particularly comfortable with this position.
The daily chart is now around 1789. Previously, it surged to 1842, then pulled back to around 1580, and has since rallied back. The price has now reclaimed the BOLL middle band above 1685, with the daily BOLL upper band near 1880 above.
What I'm focusing on is not simply "SanDisk will rise," but the recent market expectations heating up again around Trump's midterm elections and technology and industrial policies. Funds are clearly willing to re-engage in high-volatility tech assets.
So I'm willing to try at 1742, but I won't stubbornly hold on.
If the previous high at 1842 is effectively broken, I'll continue to watch; if it falls back to around 1685, I'll rather exit. There's no need to turn a trial-and-error trade into a belief trade.
Looking at $BTC, the contrast recently is quite obvious.
A few days ago, it was hovering around 80,000; yesterday it surged directly to about 86,300, and now it's still around 86,000. The market's risk appetite is clearly stronger than last week, but I won't chase shorts here either.
What I'm more concerned about now is: after BTC stabilizes above 86,000, can altcoins and tech assets truly take over?
If the market rally is just BTC pulling hard on its own, I'll be more cautious with stocks like SanDisk; if funds start to spread out, then this move in SNDK becomes interesting.
For the 1742 position, I'll hold and watch first; if uncomfortable, I'll exit.
