wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Another day of all correct $BTC
Don't just focus on the crypto circle when dealing with coins. One piece of news tonight is worth remembering: Anthropic plans to expand its frontier engineering team to 10,000 people by 2027.
This is not just a single company's expansion; the entire AI industry chain is crazily attracting capital—capital, talent, and computing power are all flowing there. Money is limited, and every bit flowing into AI is being drawn away from elsewhere.
The most comfortable days for the crypto circle in the past two years were when liquidity was abundant and money had nowhere else to go. Now smart money has a sexier destination, and the pool of risk capital is quietly being drained. $BTC, which relies purely on liquidity for pricing, fears not any particular negative news, but rather "everyone going elsewhere."
Let's talk about a detail many people overlook: the recent rebound happened on extremely low volume.
I have a habit when watching the market to first check if the volume matches the price movement. A rise with increased volume means real buying support, while a rebound on low volume usually means no one is taking over the positions, and shorts are just covering to push the price up. This morning when $BTC surged, the volume didn't keep up at all.
The worst thing at the poker table is when your opponent bets big but has no cards—low-volume rallies are this kind of bluff. To truly confirm a trend reversal, you need to see a stable rise with increased volume, not a sneaky spike in the middle of the night when no one is around. Until then, for me, a rebound is a chance to reduce positions, not a reason to add more.
For those using leverage to go long on risky assets, you should write down what Fed's Goolsbee said tonight: the job market remains stable, interest rate hikes are on hold, "all options have ample room," and inflation is more important than employment.
In plain language — don't expect a rate cut anytime soon. The market previously bet on "easing as soon as employment weakens," but officials have come out one after another to pour cold water on that.
For assets like $BTC that rely on liquidity, the high interest rates are like an iron plate overhead. A rebound is possible, but as long as this plate doesn't move, it's likely a selling point. Don't mistake the officials' "stability" for "easing."
This morning $BTC once surged to 86,000, and the comment section was full of "the bull is back." A few hours later, the price dropped back to 84,500, and $ETH was even weaker. The so-called rebound burns the shorts' fuel, not the longs' real money.
In the past two days, I've switched back to the short side. It's not out of spite, but because the situation has changed—once the short squeeze blows out all the shorts that need to be liquidated, there's no fuel left for an upward push.
The nickname "Short God" has never meant "always short," but rather standing where the odds are better. Now, with a short-term spike followed by a pullback and the mid-term still overbought, I choose to stand with the sellers. Taking it slow, low frequency, big bets—I can hold this hand.
Tonight $BTC stands back above 86,000, and this wave of momentum is not baseless—the September nonfarm payroll report has been released, with figures basically meeting expectations. The softer employment data has allowed the market to breathe a sigh of relief: the urgency for rate hikes has eased, and risk assets have rebounded accordingly.
My long positions have gained about one full point these past two days. But the more smoothly things go, the more I remind myself: profits earned are most easily given back on the next pullback. My approach is not to blindly rejoice at the price but to move my stop-loss upward—letting profits run, but never allowing them to turn into losses.
The direction at the moment the data lands is often not the true direction. When holding positions, discipline is more valuable than prediction.