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Kushner talks diplomacy while asking for money, which would be a scandal in any country. Being Trump's son-in-law is not a shield. Asking for billions from foreign governments he is negotiating with, and doing so openly without even trying to hide it. Diplomacy has become a family business.
Public reports show that during his tenure as a senior White House advisor in the Trump administration, Kushner was deeply involved in Middle East diplomacy, including promoting the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and others. After leaving office, he founded the private equity fund Affinity Partners. In 2022, The New York Times and others revealed that the Saudi Public Investment Fund invested $2 billion in it, making up the bulk of the fund's early capital. More glaringly, the fund's internal advisory group had recommended against the investment, citing Kushner's lack of traditional asset management experience, high fee structure, and unclear risks, but the Saudi crown prince's side ultimately made the decision. Meanwhile, sovereign wealth funds from the UAE, Qatar, and other places also have dealings with the fund. Kushner's side denies any exchange of interests, claiming the investment was based on commercial judgment. But the problem is: he was negotiating U.S. diplomacy with these countries at the time, then turned around to take money from their governments, the timeline and
Gold has risen again, while silver has actually fallen. This trend is more interesting than just looking at the rise and fall: the gold-silver ratio is quietly widening. The gold-silver ratio indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. When gold is strong and silver is weak, the ratio rises. Historically, the gold-silver ratio has mostly fluctuated between 60 and 80, but during liquidity crises or recession trades, it can surge to above 100 or even 120. For example, in March 2020, when the global market faced liquidity stress due to the pandemic, gold was initially sold off and then quickly rebounded; silver, however, dropped from around $18 per ounce to below $12, causing the gold-silver ratio to spike above 120. This was not because industrial demand for silver disappeared overnight, but because the market first sought safe havens and then replenished liquidity. Silver, due to its smaller market size and heavier speculative and industrial attributes, fell more sharply.
Before every Federal Reserve decision, the market usually moves in anticipation. This time is no different: gold priced in the rate cut expectations first, while silver did not follow, indicating that this round of safe-haven demand outweighs industrial demand. Gold is more sensitive to real interest rates, the US dollar, and geopolitical risks. When rate cut expectations rise, funds flow into gold first; silver relies half on monetary attributes and half on industrial demand. If demand expectations for manufacturing, photovoltaics, electronics, etc., do not strengthen simultaneously, silver struggles to match the same gains. This is also visible in the market: when gold prices approach previous highs, silver does not break through simultaneously, and silver mining stocks and industrial metals do not necessarily resonate. ETF funds flow more into gold. All these point to the same signal: the current dominant logic is more defensive.
In a vault strategy, gold and silver should not be placed in the same risk category—one is defensive, the other cyclical. Gold is more like the ballast in a portfolio, used to hedge against currency depreciation and extreme risks; silver is more like a leveraged hybrid asset, with precious metal attributes but also influenced by industrial cycles and speculative funds, resulting in greater volatility and deeper drawdowns. Treating both simply as "precious metals" in one basket can lead to misjudging positions when risks arise. A more reasonable approach is to view them separately: gold focuses on real interest rates, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts; silver focuses on manufacturing PMI, photovoltaic installations, inventories, and speculative net longs.
So what's the conclusion? I haven't figured it out yet either. The widening gold-silver ratio may mean the safe-haven theme remains strong, or it may just be silver dragged down by weak industrial demand. If the Fed cuts rates and the economy soft-lands, silver might catch up, and the gold-silver ratio would fall; if recession risks rise, gold may continue to outperform silver, pushing the ratio higher. What is certain now is that gold and silver should not be placed in the same risk category. As for whether this is a short-term divergence or a medium-term trend, I still need to observe more.
📊 Market Structure
OMI/USDT 1h K-line closed with three consecutive bullish candles at 0.0002701, a 24h increase of 12.64%, with a trading volume of 66.9K. At the 1h level, the MACD fast and slow lines formed a golden cross and the histogram continues to expand, RSI reading is 68, close to the overbought zone but not yet saturated. From the market perspective, short-term momentum is bullish, with moderate volume support. 📍 Key Levels
OMI token identifier corresponds to on-chain data, with active addresses in the past 24h up 9% QoQ, but no significant decrease in coin holding concentration. The upper resistance at 0.000285 is a previous high dense trading zone, and the lower support at 0.000245 is the 1h EMA20. Watch the breakout direction of this range, with a higher probability of maintaining a consolidating upward structure. 📉 Macro Correlation
This week’s non-farm payroll and CPI data were released sequentially, with interest rate decisions unchanged. The US dollar index fell below 104, giving risk assets a short-term breather. ENA rose 8.25% in 24h with a volume of 13.7M, MOVE up 10.10%, S up 9.46%, showing clear rotation of funds in small and mid-cap sectors. 🔍 Data Cross-Check
On-chain stablecoin net inflow slightly turned positive, OMI contract funding rate is positive at 0.012%, with no extreme crowding. Technicals and on-chain data do not show overheating resonance, leaning short-term bullish but BTC’s ability to hold above 68000 needs monitoring. Not investment advice. #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI
Russian banks' bond issuance has already stalled. The real issue is not that buyers find the yields too low, but that they doubt whether the principal can be recovered. This distinction is crucial: if it were just low yields, buyers could demand higher coupons and wider spreads as compensation; but once principal risk is on the table, no matter how high the coupon, it may only represent a "risk premium" rather than "return." In other words, investors face not the question of "how much to earn," but "whether they will lose their entire principal."
A typical example is a mid-sized Russian bank that originally planned to issue 10 billion rubles of three-year subordinated capital bonds in the local market. To attract funds, the bank offered a coupon rate above 18%, several hundred basis points higher than federal loan bonds of the same maturity, about 400–500 basis points more. Normally, such a spread should cover inflation, liquidity premium, and general credit risk, and attract local asset managers, insurance funds, and private banking clients. But the book-building results were disappointing, with less than half subscribed, forcing the issuance size to be reduced to 4 billion rubles. In other words, the plan was to raise 10 billion, but only 4 billion was obtained, leaving a gap of 6 billion.
The buyers are not short of money. At that time, there were still funds in the market seeking high-yield assets; the problem was that these funds were unwilling to bear the risk of principal being written down to zero upon trigger. The special terms of subordinated capital bonds stipulate that if the bank's capital adequacy ratio falls below regulatory thresholds, or regulators determine the bank cannot continue operating, the bonds may be written down to zero or forcibly converted into common stock. For investors, an 18% coupon looks high, but if the probability of principal loss is repriced, this coupon is no longer "return" but more like compensation for potential loss. Suppose investors buy 4 billion rubles of bonds, earning about 720 million rubles in interest annually; but once the write-down is triggered, they lose the 4 billion principal, and years of interest may not cover that loss.
More broadly, since 2022, sanctions, asset freezes, cross-border payment obstacles, and opaque bank asset quality have sharply increased the risk premium on Russian bank capital instruments. Although federal loan bonds have low yields, they are supported by sovereign credit and local liquidity, making the principal relatively safe; subordinated bank capital bonds are junior in the repayment hierarchy and come with write-down clauses. Thus, the market has diverged: sovereign bonds can still be allocated by domestic institutions, while bank capital bonds increasingly rely on a small number of high-risk-tolerant funds.
Therefore, the cooling of Russian bank bond issuance is not simply a rate issue but a principal trust crisis. As long as investors doubt the principal's recoverability, no matter how high the coupon, demand is hard to stimulate. Buyers are not short of money; they just are unwilling to risk their principal.
NVIDIA's door has been slightly pried open by China itself, and ByteDance and Alibaba might be able to buy the latest AI chips now. The previously tightest bottleneck has loosened; the most anxious aren't NVIDIA, but the domestic major manufacturers who have been waiting for chips for over half a year. The hardest part of trading isn't actually predicting the direction, but waiting for signals you understand—and now the signals have arrived. How about you?
📊 Market Structure
$S shows a volume surge and rally on the 1-hour chart, current price 0.04158, up 9.48%, with a turnover of 587.8K. The moving average system sees MA5 crossing above MA20 forming a golden cross, MACD histogram turning positive from negative, and the DIF line rising near the zero axis. RSI reading is about 63, not yet in the overbought zone, short-term momentum remains. 📍 Key Levels
The previous high at 0.0432 above is the primary resistance, a breakout requires volume support. Below, 0.0390 is the MA20 support; if broken, the probability of filling the gap increases. On-chain data shows an increase in large transfers in the past 24 hours, exchange net inflow slightly turned negative, indicating signs of token lock-up. 📉 Macro Background
US Treasury yields oscillate at high levels, CPI stickiness persists, and market expectations for rate cuts fluctuate. Dollar liquidity remains tight; altcoin rebounds mostly represent stock game, with sustainability relying on BTC stabilization. This $S rally leans more toward short-term capital rotation rather than a trend reversal. 🔍 Comparative Observation
$2Z down 8.87%, $MEW down 8.18%, showing clear sector divergence. $S strengthening against the trend indicates independent buying interest, but absolute turnover is low, depth insufficient, and slippage risk should be noted. Watch if 0.0400 can hold; if it does, the bullish structure continues. Conclusion bias: short-term bullish but limited to light position probing; exit if it breaks below 0.0390. Not investment advice. #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI
In the US stock group, people shout "keep up" every day, but I think this wave is a lesson for those chasing highs. The trend line above the S&P has been tested three times without breaking, and once the support below loosens, it triggers a chain reaction. Large sell orders are all placed at key resistance levels, and as soon as buyers hesitate, the price has to find space downward. I'll save this judgment first and come back to verify tomorrow. Keep an eye on it.
3:30 White House Oval Office, Trump is pulling the Commerce Secretary to issue something. No leaks, but just mentioning any of the words tariffs, industrial policy, or trade now can crash the market. Last time I jumped in without waiting for confirmation, set the stop loss too tight, and got stopped out twice. This time I'll first see if the candlestick can hold before making a move. Keep an eye on it if you're watching.
