天才交易员绿小勤
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Bitcoin is testing two holding groups: holders with a cost basis of about $88,350 for 18 months to 2 years, and holders with a cost basis of about $89,200 for 6 to 12 months. Bitcoin is entering this convergence zone, and related investors may react emotionally. Darkfost emphasizes that the cost basis is neither a support nor resistance line, but an average value used only to identify risk areas. He points out that the 6 to 12 months group has been overall at a loss for nearly a year, with some possibly having bought at the market top. This test will weed out the impatient, while others may continue buying to lower their cost basis and return to profitability. As Bitcoin approaches these levels, such behaviors may interrupt its previously accumulated upward momentum. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,230.71%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 19:58
Citigroup analysts have raised the 12-month target price for Bitcoin from the previous $82,000 to $113,000 and expect Ethereum's price to surpass $3,000. Analysts believe that as investment advisors and brokers gradually increase their allocation to crypto assets, it will drive more capital into Bitcoin ETFs, with an expected inflow of about $5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs in the future.
Currently, the assets under management for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs are approximately $110 billion, holding about 1.3 million Bitcoins, among which BlackRock's IBIT holds over 800,000. Citi believes that as institutional capital continues to flow in, Bitcoin ETF inflows are expected to further rebound #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,220.72%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 19:52
Bitcoin broke through the consolidation range of $82,500-$85,700 over the past week, rising to $86,913 at one point, up 14.6% from the low on September 15. The annualized funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is about 5.4%. QCP believes this rally is driven more by spot funds rather than leverage. Meanwhile, gold fell 8.5% in September, while BTC rose about 12%. They believe the current trend is more consistent with a combination of capital inflows, regulatory catalysts, and technical improvements. The US spot BTC ETF saw inflows of about $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. In the options market, clients have cumulatively sold over 4,000 call options expiring on October 30 with a strike price of $90,000, with a notional value of about $346 million, and shifted to buying options with the same strike price expiring on November 27. QCP views $82,500 as the current support level, $87,400 as the September high and an important resistance on the way to $90,000 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,231.73%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 18:41
Options settlement data for October 2 shows 30,500 BTC options expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.07, a max pain point at $82,000, and a notional value of $2.63 billion. For ETH, 116,000 options expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.17, a max pain point at $2,660, and a notional value of $320 million. Analysis indicates a clear rebound in BTC price on the settlement day, with strong bullish options block trades, marking it as a relatively active weekly settlement day. The price has oscillated around $85,000 for over a week, market confidence remains very positive, and community discussions mainly focus on expectations of major coin price increases. From the main options data, this week's primary term IV has decreased compared to last week's IV, only relatively rising from two weeks ago, currently at a low point since this bull market began. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,235.10%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 17:59
Combining the long-term K-line charts of mainstream crypto assets, the technical analysis predicts the top of this bull market cycle for major coins as follows: Bitcoin's first target is the previous high of $125,000. If this high is broken, it may reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel—close to $190,000; Ethereum's monthly chart shows an ascending channel followed over the past 5 years, with the upper channel line near $5,000 being a key level to watch. If this level is broken, the expected move points to $8,800. The SOL monthly chart appears to be forming a cup-and-handle pattern, with the neckline around $295. A monthly close above this line would strengthen the bullish case, with the pattern's potential target near $2,744. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,236.55%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 17:44
The current Bitcoin futures market buy pressure indicator has risen to 4.9, reaching the highest level since August 19. Contract open interest increased by nearly 9,000 BTC within 24 hours, indicating that traders are once again starting to build positions. The buy pressure indicator measures the balance of market buying and selling, weighted by changes in open contracts. A reading of 4.9 means the accumulated pressure in the past 12 hours is nearly five standard deviations above the average level of the past week. This surge may be accompanied by the establishment of long positions and the closing of short positions. If the Bitcoin price can maintain above $85,000 despite weakening upward momentum, it suggests this rally is likely to continue. The main risk of newly established long positions lies in the price falling below $83,000: liquidations could accelerate the decline. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,220.54%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 16:17
Renowned trader Killa posted that the current Bitcoin trend has clearly shifted, yet we are still at the peak phase of the "market skeptical bull" stage. In the 2023 bull market, if you go long every time the price dips below the "established low" (meaning a low point confirmed by the market and showing support), the price never fell more than 8% below that low; in some cases, it only dipped 4-5% before immediately rallying again. Our current "established low" is 82.5K; based on historical performance, the downward deviation is expected to be very small. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the broad market downturn on June 5. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,272.97%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 15:25
ETH now is different from before. Previously, it was a large range oscillation. Since I got stuck at 2563, it hasn't dropped anymore. Every time it dips a little, it immediately pulls back up. Analyzing ETH's chip distribution from multiple perspectives, there are too many profitable chips below. This small-scale oscillation and rally is probably to liquidate shorts. Below $2705, the long profitable chips are too concentrated. We need to be cautious of the next wave of pullback. The heat liquidation at $2620 forms an effective support. Looking at the liquidation chart, it is highly likely to have a downward pullback around $2650 $ETH #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
-597.99%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 13:56
Coinbase released a report stating that BTC profit-taking has risen to the highest level of the year, and market demand has cooled down. On September 22, holders realized profits of 25,700 BTC in a single day, the highest daily level since 2026. At the same time, the unrealized profit rate of short-term traders rose to 33%, the highest since December 2024. Meanwhile, apparent spot demand for BTC decreased by 170,000 in the past 30 days; speculative futures demand increment also dropped from 164,000 on September 14 to 16,000 on September 29 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
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Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 12:30
Tracking Bitcoin treasury company Strategy holds about 78% of Bitcoin positions, corresponding to a value of $55.78 billion. Among them, marked wallets hold Bitcoin worth $40.28 billion, and another $15.5 billion in assets are marked within the Fidelity Custody system. Arkham wallet profiles show that about 1,600 addresses related to Strategy collectively hold 478,199 Bitcoins. Fidelity Custody uses a pooled custody model, so address fund flows may reflect operational adjustments by the custodian, with no change in client asset ownership. Strategy disclosed that from September 21 to 27, it purchased 1,665 Bitcoins at a cost of $143 million, with an average purchase price of $85,681 per coin. As of disclosure, it holds a total of 847,666 Bitcoins, with a cumulative purchase cost of about $63.95 billion and an average cost of $75,437 per coin #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
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Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 11:08