美股投资young
美股投资young
美股科技投资者 ai狂热者 分享每日快讯. all in ai
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OKB rose more than 4% today, HYPE saw a slight rebound, while TRX slightly declined. However, over the past 7 days, TRX has only dropped about 1%, OKB fell 10%, and HYPE nearly 15%. A strong gain today does not mean it was stronger over the past week.
$OKB is currently around $99.3, up 4.4% in 24 hours. The first support is at $97–98, with resistance at $100–102 above. Only by firmly holding above $105 can the structure improve further; breaking below $95 means caution for continued searching for lower levels.
$HYPE is currently around $72.7, up 1.4% in 24 hours. Support is seen at $71–72, with resistance at $75–76 above. Only by breaking above $78 can the recovery expand; falling below $70 may lead to further declines. HYPE has clearly lost its previous strength recently.
$TRX is currently around $0.3166, down only 1% over the past 7 days. The first support is at $0.314–0.315, with resistance at $0.32–0.325 above. Breaking above $0.325 is needed to continue strengthening; breaking below $0.31 calls for caution for further adjustments. TRX lacks short-term resilience but shows significantly stronger weekly support than OKB and HYPE.
I remain optimistic about the AI sector in the long term, but holding onto it now requires some mental preparation.
First, why am I still optimistic?
The demand for computing power shows no signs of slowing down. Major companies are willing to spend capital aggressively. This has become a competition at the national level—whoever stops first falls behind, and no one dares to slow down.
The real bottlenecks are electricity and data transmission. The more chips you stack, the more power you need, and the more data between chips and cabinets must be transmitted via optical fiber. So I keep a close eye on power and optical communications; these two areas are unavoidable.
Now, what should you prepare for?
The current pressure mainly comes from politics—data center approvals and AI regulations. No one can say for sure when or how these will be implemented. Such news can be irrational; a single report can trigger a big drop.
If you hold AI stocks, you have to accept this experience.
My approach is to pick the strongest. The major market indices plus a few absolutely monopolistic semiconductor leaders—after they fall, they have the highest certainty of recovery. Those highly volatile small caps, once their trend breaks and funds leave, are hard to come back.
Also, avoid leverage, avoid going all-in, and avoid frequent trading. Buy in batches when prices have dropped enough, and don’t chase when prices rise.
The 2020 pandemic and 2025 tariffs both seemed catastrophic at the time but turned out to be pitfalls in hindsight. This time may not be exactly the same, but the mindset is the same: survive first, then talk about making money.
Options expiring in just a few days—most people buy them hoping to leverage a small amount into a big gain, but in the end, it usually turns into losing a lot from a small investment.
The reason is simple.
Part of an option's price is called time value, which decays faster as expiration approaches. In the last few days, it almost evaporates by the hour. When you buy, you're not just betting on direction; the price has to move enough within a very short time to cover this loss.
Even if the direction is right, if the price doesn't rise fast enough, you still lose.
This is even more obvious on earnings nights. Before earnings, everyone wants to gamble, so options get very expensive. Once the report is out, regardless of up or down, that "uncertainty" premium instantly disappears. Many people guess the direction correctly but still see losses the next day—that's why.
I'm not saying options are useless. Using them to hedge your positions or selling some longer-dated options to earn time value are legitimate strategies.
But using options expiring in a few days to bet on a single rebound or an earnings report is not much different from gambling in a casino. Winning once in a while leaves a strong impression. Losing ten times is quickly forgotten.
If you really want to express your view before a major event, use the underlying stock with a small position and just hold. Time is on your side, and that's stronger than anything else.
During the New Year, a relative's child asked me: Where is the lucky money?
I said: $NVDA, those two shots of gold bars, they are keeping it for me first.
To trap me
1. $GOOG and $INTC experienced the largest single-day drop in history
2. The Democrats had a huge win flipping Texas blue
3. Data centers are no longer being built
4. Jensen Huang's cheating scandal happened twice
5. I feel like the Democrats are going to have an even bigger one 😅
Really disgusting
Everyone can say the four words "buy in batches," but when it comes to actually doing it, most people split by time—and they get it wrong.
The common approach is to buy a little this week, a little next week, and a little next month. This is called dollar-cost averaging, suitable for indexes and for people who don't have time to watch the market—no problem there.
But if you want to catch a relatively low position during a big drop, splitting by time isn't quite right. When the price falls slowly, you buy too much; when it falls fast, you've already spent all your money.
I prefer to split by price.
First, decide the maximum amount of money you plan to put into this stock—that's your total pot. Then pick two or three price points you trust, such as previous lows, major moving averages, or the last volume breakout platform. Buy a portion at each of these points.
If the price doesn't drop to those points, don't buy—even if you miss out, accept it.
There are two benefits to this approach.
First, your mindset stays steady. When the price drops, you know where your next purchase is, so you won't panic. When it rises, you have a base position and won't rush to chase.
Second, you always keep some money reserved. The most extreme market days often offer the best prices, but many people have already run out of funds by then.
One last reminder: the premise of buying in batches is that the company itself hasn't run into problems. If the logic breaks down and you keep buying on the way down, it becomes a case of throwing good money after bad. 📌
Feels like this is very true
Victim of political turmoil
It's really hard to judge, but the worst off are probably the $NVDA shareholders
This is really exaggerated, a drawdown of 33% in just a little over a month
$NVDA Do you believe it’s not a setup?
The scariest thing about leverage is that it gives you no chance to wait for the right day.
Let's do the simplest calculation first.
If it drops 50%, you need to rise 100% to break even. If it drops 70%, you need to rise 233%. If it drops 90%, you need to rise 900%.
A 70% drop in the underlying stock is already terrible, but as long as the company still exists, there is still a chance to recover in the long term. With double leverage, if the underlying stock drops 35%, you lose 70%. With triple leverage, a drop of just over 30% almost wipes you out.
After wiping out, no matter how much the stock price rises, it no longer concerns you.
That's why I always say, in this kind of market, it's not that hard to pick the right direction, the hard part is surviving until the day you are right.
Looking back at March 2020 and the tariff wave in 2025, both were opportunities to pick up money in the pit. But many who were fully invested with leverage at the time didn't survive the rebound and were forcibly liquidated at the lowest points. They were right about the direction, but lost their money.
There is also the problem with leveraged ETFs. For triple long products, if the index fluctuates back and forth, even if it eventually returns to the starting point, it will still lose some value because it recalculates leverage daily. The greater the volatility, the more severe the erosion.
The current market, where political news triggers a big bearish candle, is exactly the environment that wears down leverage the most.
If you want to be long-term bullish, use the underlying stock and cash. Earning a little less is okay; being able to stay at the table is what matters most.
