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The diplomatic door isn’t closed yet
The U.S. and Iran are back in indirect discussions through Qatari mediators, with a new proposal focused on rebuilding trust, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and eventually returning to broader negotiations.
Personally, I think the most interesting part is that both sides are still exchanging proposals despite months of tension. That doesn’t mean a deal is close, but it tells me neither side has completely given up on diplomacy.
The biggest challenge now seems to be who moves first. Sanctions, the naval blockade, Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme are all connected, and agreeing on the order of those steps could be just as difficult as agreeing on the issues themselves.
For markets, I’m watching oil first. Real progress could remove some geopolitical risk premium, while another breakdown could quickly bring supply concerns back.
Talking again is progress.
Compromise is the real test.
#USIranTalksRestart $BTC
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