Postare
Olivia Rose
The data was better, but not good enough to stop the hike. PPI cooled to 0.3% vs 0.4% expected, but core is stuck at 5.0% yearly — and the Fed needs core falling for months before it changes course. A December hike is basically confirmed. For $BTC, that's the headwind keeping it under $70K. It's holding $68,675 for now, but every rejection makes the $67,568 low louder. Are you positioned for the hike or the pivot? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
Bull Theory
Mixed reaction in the market after the PPI data.
S&P 500 futures jumped 0.43% and Nasdaq futures jumped 0.72% in just 10 minutes after the release.
Almost all of that move has now been reversed.
The data itself was mostly good news:
• PPI (MoM): 0.3% vs 0.4% expected, down from 1.4%
• Core PPI (MoM): 0.3%, in line with expectations, down from 0.8%
So monthly inflation at the producer level slowed sharply after September's spike.
That could mean the next inflation prints come in cooler as well.
But the yearly numbers are still high, with PPI at 6.5% and core at 5.0%.
They're also hard to read, because last October's data was hit by the government shutdown.
And for December, this doesn't change much. A rate hike is basically confirmed at this point.
All three major data releases of the last two weeks have pointed to a December hike: a strong October jobs report, a hotter than expected CPI, and now a PPI where core didn't cool any more than expected.
Core is what matters here.
Headline PPI cooled a lot in one month, but core only came in as expected.
The Fed needs to see core falling for a few months before it changes course.
Fed officials have also been saying for weeks that inflation is now spreading into sectors that have nothing to do with energy.
So falling oil prices alone won't solve it.
That's why the market couldn't hold the rally.
The data was better, but not good enough to stop the hike.
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