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沐春风
$BZ $XAU The Lost Europe
If commodity prices rise → Russia, as a resource-exporting nation, earns more foreign exchange; the Russia–Ukraine war continues.
If commodity prices fall sharply → China, as a manufacturing powerhouse, sees a significant decline in import costs for raw materials, which benefits its manufacturing sector and sustains the upgrading of its industrial supply chains.
Chinese enterprises can purchase discounted Russian oil, lowering energy and raw-material costs across foundational industries such as electricity, chemicals, plastics, synthetic fibers, and metal smelting. This cost advantage then cascades downstream, giving China’s broader manufacturing base a sustained competitive edge.
By contrast, the United States, Europe, and some 35 other economies are unable to purchase discounted Russian oil. As a result, their energy and chemical-feedstock costs remain higher, and these elevated costs are transmitted layer by layer throughout their entire range of industrial goods.
If the Russia–Ukraine conflict persists for several years, this cost differential will accumulate over time. Western industrial competitiveness will gradually stagnate, widening the gap relative to China.
The United States, wielding financial and capital leverage, faces a strategic dilemma: whether it pushes resource prices higher or drives them lower, one of its rivals stands to benefit, leaving Washington caught in a structural contradiction. In this process, Europe is gradually being reduced to a middling, strategically diminished power.
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