May, White House.
Trump patted Wash's shoulder and said, "Do your own thing." ”
Four months later, what Walsh was preparing to do was: raising interest rates.
Meanwhile, Trump publicly declared in Ireland: "The United States should have the world's lowest interest rate." ”
The market has grown too lazy to guess.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September soared to 92%. Goldman Sachs urgently changed its stance from "keep it unchanged." JPMorgan Chase expects to raise rates once in September and December.
The federal funds rate will rise from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first time since 2023 that the Federal Reserve has pressed the button to raise interest rates.
If it happens, it will be less than eight weeks before the midterm elections.
Wash, nominated by Trump and in office for only four months, now has to personally pour cold water on the president's interest rate hopes.
This person used to be considered one of their own, in the crypto community.
Washh holds over $100 million in crypto assets. He has invested in more than 30 digital asset projects, including Bitcoin, Flashnet (Lightning Network startup), the prediction market Polymarket, and the decentralized exchange dYdX.
He publicly stated that Bitcoin "will not make him nervous," said Bitcoin can "fight inflation," and advocated for digital assets to be regarded as a legitimate part of the financial services sector.
The Senate approved his appointment by a record margin of 54 to 45. At the time, the market interpreted this as a "crypto-friendly signal," expecting him to bring looser regulation and lower interest rates.
Then he took office. Then he said this at Jackson Hole:
"Inflation has been above target for 65 consecutive months." "Against the backdrop of near-full employment, financial conditions are not tight." "Price stability will not self-realize."
This is not ambiguous central bank language. It directly tells the market: my policy response function has changed.
In the past, the market believed the Fed would keep rates unchanged unless data forced it to raise rates.
Now, the logic is reversed—the Fed tends to raise rates unless the data is enough to pause it.
Trump was certainly upset.
White House advisor Hassett told CNN that both he and Trump "believe there is no reason to raise interest rates at this time." Trump himself reiterated that "the United States should have the world's lowest interest rate."
But here's a historic irony—
The last time a U.S. president pressured the Fed so harshly was Nixon in 1971.
Nixon forced then-Fed Chairman Burns to keep interest rates low when inflation was already emerging. Burns gave in. What was the result? The U.S. entered a decade-long stagflation. Stocks, bonds, and currency trades were hit hard.
Walsh could not have been unaware of this history. He is 56 years old this year, served as a Federal Reserve governor back in 2006, was the youngest at the time, and experienced the 2008 financial crisis.
He faced a multiple-choice question with no correct answer:
Rate hikes → Trump is furious, causing trouble for the president before the midterm elections and being called a "traitor" by conservatives.
No rate hikes → The Fed's independence completely collapsed, inflation expectations spiraled out of control, and historians have called it the "second Burns."
Raising interest rates is political suicide. Not raising rates is historical suicide.
But the most fantastical storyline is on the crypto market.
Logically, rate hikes are the nemesis of risk assets. With rising rates and tightening liquidity, Bitcoin should be the first to be smashed.
But this time it didn't.
Core CPI for August rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. Bitcoin actually rose after the data release, climbing 1.5% in 24 hours to $78,600.
LMAX Group traders said, "Most of the risks from hawkish policies have already been reflected in prices." "21Shares' data is even harsher—over the 30 days when core CPI exceeded expectations, Bitcoin rose an average of 2.13%.
Why?
Because Bitcoin's narrative is changing. It is no longer just a "risk asset." As the market began to question the risks of U.S. government debt and runaway inflation, Bitcoin's role shifted from "speculative" to "macro hedge tool."
"We can't print oil, and Bitcoin can't be devalued." This statement is being taken seriously by more and more institutions.
So in the end, it falls to you:
If Washka doesn't raise rates, it's not up to you. Even if Trump says it, it's not up to you. The market has already set it for them—92%.
But do you know what really counts? Volatility.
Whether Walsh chooses to raise rates early Thursday morning or not, Bitcoin's sideways movement near $78,000 will be tore apart by sharp fluctuations in one direction.
Rate hikes take effect → short-term sell-off, but the rebound of "all negative news gone" may come even faster.
No rate hikes → shocked the market, but fears of a collapse in the Fed's credibility will push funds into Bitcoin.
Wash is making a multiple-choice question with no right answer. Crypto traders don't need to take sides—you just need to know that no matter what they choose, volatility is certain.
And volatility is your opportunity.
$BTC$ETH$ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes materialize?
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