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Is data adjustment useful? From the short-term market reaction, it is useful, but can it really solve the crisis? We still need to wait and see the market response.
After the significant downward revision of the PCE data calibration tonight, the market reacted well. #Bitcoin took the lead, breaking through 85,000 on the 1-hour chart, US stocks rose, and US Treasury yields for 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y all declined simultaneously.
In the short term, modifying the data calibration is useful. Although I think it is false, it doesn't matter. A lie told for a lifetime becomes the truth. Since the market now believes it, this proves that the data revision is effective.
However, whether the market fully believes it cannot be concluded at this time. The data calibration revision has reduced the probability of a rate hike in October, lowering it to 34.9%, but it has not completely dispelled the expectation of a rate hike in December. Currently, the probability of a December rate hike has increased to 59.4%, which is a success.
Secondly, the good performance of US stocks and other risk assets indicates that the data has a short-term effect on boosting the market. The collective decline in bond yields also has an effect. However, it can be seen that the 2Y yield declined more significantly, while the long-term bonds, 10Y and 30Y, fell shortly after the data release but then continued to rise.
From the perspective of suppressing long-term bond sell-offs alone, tonight's data revision clearly has limited effect. The long-term bond market still lacks confidence in endogenous inflation and is mixed with key issues such as fiscal supply. If the long-term bond market cannot slow down the sell-off, potential market risks still exist! This is something to be cautious about! #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 ⚠️Risk Warning: $ETH $cryptocurrency contract trading is highly volatile and leveraged trading carries extremely high risk. The following is only a simulated practice record and does not constitute any investment advice.
Day 9 of the challenge to reach the 10,000U target before the new year. Principal is 939U!
Tomorrow's operation:
ETH current price 2700.91
【Long Strategy】
Entry reference: around 2685
Take profit: 2730
Stop loss: 2660
Add position at: 2670
【Short Strategy】
Entry reference: around 2708
Take profit: 2675
Stop loss: 2735
Add position at: 2720 $WLD went crazy today, but don't rush to chase it!
WLD surged 11% today, the fastest in the AI sector. The market sentiment is very hot now, but the short-term rise is a bit overdone, chasing in easily leads to being trapped.
Today's trading volume reached 215 million USDT, a large volume, indicating real money is flowing in, not a fake rally.
On the news front, World Foundation just announced the completion of a $49 million financing, a positive catalyst, combined with the AI sector's momentum, bulls are driving the price up.
Technically, the 1-hour chart is above all moving averages, peaking at 0.5712 before pulling back. But the RSI has soared to 89.96, seriously overbought, indicating profit-taking could happen anytime.
How to operate?
For holders: You can take partial profits above 0.55 to lock in gains.
For those without positions: Don't chase the high, wait for a pullback to around 0.516 (MA10) to stabilize before considering entry.
Final reminder: PCE data will be released tonight, the market may fluctuate sharply, be sure to set stop losses!
#WLD #Worldcoin #AI sector The stolen Bitget funds have started to be laundered. ZachXBT: The suspected North Korea-linked attacker transferred 2,700 ZEC (about $3.8 million) into Zcash's Ironwood shielded pool; previously, the hot wallet lost a total of 18,900 ZEC, about $28.3 million.😇
In my opinion, once the shielded pool opens, even on-chain detectives will be scratching their heads. This wave of ZEC's heat is half faith, half stolen funds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC【On-Chain Trading Update｜SOL】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 122.26 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 271,670.11 USD
Note: This address has earned over 229,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +9.71% $BCH has been really stable lately, standing as one of the most upright among mainstream coins today. But don’t rush to call it strong; I’ve seen it stay in the red this week, dropping more than Bitcoin over the past week.
This is the persona of $BCH — a veteran payment coin, low fees, PoW, with a narrative so simple it can be summed up in one sentence. So every time the market shakes, funds come to it to rest. After resting, they leave.
You can tell from this cycle’s sectors. RWA, privacy, and meme coins take turns sucking liquidity, while old-timers like $BCH are forgotten when prices rise but hold firm when prices fall. It’s a purely defensive player, unable to score goals.
You know how those altcoins hailed as kings yesterday are doing today. The difference between real $BCH and stories is: stories are loudest when the market is good. $BCH ETH supply is about 120.7 million, and discussing inflation cannot rely on just one number
Current data sources show that the circulating supply of $ETH is about 120.7 million. Some people see that the supply is not capped and immediately classify ETH as "infinite issuance," which overlooks the mechanism where issuance and burning coexist.
When the network is active, base fee burning offsets part of the new issuance; when the network is quiet, burning decreases, and net supply may rise. The supply changes of ETH cannot be summarized simply as "inflation" or "deflation," but dynamically change with on-chain demand.
More importantly, the supply side is only part of the valuation. Even if net supply contracts during a certain period, if market demand is insufficient, the price will not automatically rise; conversely, slight issuance does not necessarily mean the network's value will decline.
To judge $ETH, one should simultaneously consider staking, burning, on-chain settlement demand, and capital costs. Isolating a single supply number can create sentiment but rarely provides a complete answer.In the past couple of days, several groups of people have tried to persuade me to sell HYPE, but I haven't listened to a single one.
Tonight, the US August core PCE came in below expectations, cooling bets on a Fed rate hike in October. Some people asked me what I think will happen next. My answer remains two words: hold steady.
The reasoning is simple. When rate hike expectations ease, liquidity looks for an outlet. The first place funds go is where there is real cash flow. HYPE is exactly the kind of project that throws its ledger in your face: over 90% of Hyperliquid's fee income goes to buybacks and burns, and so far more than 40 million tokens have been burned. Starting October 3, 90% of the USDC earnings on the platform will also go into the buyback pool, adding over 200 million dollars in buying power annually. Other tokens rely on storytelling; this one relies on hard income to buy back tokens—that's the difference.
Off-exchange money hasn't been idle either. A certain exchange just launched spot trading a few days ago, ETFs are entering, several US-listed companies have put HYPE into their treasuries, and even Trump mentioned it recently.
My reason for being bullish on $HYPE hasn't changed since day one: it's clear who is making money and who is buying back. I can't predict which way the wind will blow, but as long as the ship is sound, I'm not getting off. Conclusion first: $NIGHT is up 24% today, not a random pump, but a rally driven by the founder's IP.
Numbers laid out: In 24 hours, it rose from 0.031 to 0.038, with an intraday high of 0.0386, and OKX contracts traded about $30 million in 24h.
The fuse is clear. Yesterday Hoskinson publicly said two things: "I do not control NIGHT's supply" and "I support NIGHT." CMC today directly labeled it as Hoskinson hype + privacy narrative.
Looking at the 4H structure, it's actually not bad: After the Wanchain bridge was hacked in July, losing 515M NIGHT (about $9M) and hitting a new phase low, the 0.028–0.033 range consolidated for two days. This morning at 08:00 UTC, the 4H volume surged +16%, closing at 0.0379. This is a move where bad news is fully priced in + narrative takes over, not the first hour of new money chasing highs.
But a word of caution: a rally driven by the founder's IP rises fast and falls fast. If 0.0386 volume holds, the next resistance is 0.04; if it fails to hold 0.033, it will return to the range.
Do you think this privacy narrative marks the start of a new cycle, or just a one-day emotional pulse? Resistance above: $2,720–$2,750 is the real "touchstone"
ETH has currently just rebounded to a strongly validated resistance zone:
· $2,720: Upper Bollinger Band, which has repeatedly suppressed price rebounds before;
· $2,739–$2,750: A stronger resistance cluster, where ETH was twice blocked and fell back in September;
· $2,780–$2,800: The final key round number, which was touched at $2,805 on September 21 before quickly falling back.
Whether the buying pressure brought by the PCE positive news can push ETH to effectively break through $2,720–$2,750 is the core observation point to judge whether this rebound is a "one-day trip" or a trend reversal. If it cannot stand firmly in this area with volume, the market will most likely return to the $2,650–$2,750 range-bound oscillation.In fact, the decline in core PCE is due to the U.S. Department of Commerce revising the algorithm, so the core PCE data has decreased, but the previous value was also revised down from 3.3% to 3%, which is exactly the same as the 3% announced this month.
The month-on-month rate was revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%. Comparing the revised data, the month-on-month rate actually rose from 0.1% back to 0.2%, with the increase being less than market expectations. Although it rose slightly, it is not a big issue.
For the Federal Reserve, it indeed reduces the urgency of a rate hike in October. According to CME data, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 47% to 37%, so the PCE data itself is still acceptable.Japan is researching government bonds on the blockchain, which has nothing to do with coin prices.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance has established a research group.
They are studying whether government bonds can be settled using blockchain.
What others think:
As soon as they see blockchain, they assume Japan is going to buy $BTC.
Actually, the research is about government bond transactions, not buying coins.
What I think:
Currently, Japanese government bonds settle the next day.
Changing to on-chain means payment and delivery settle on the same day.
What is really saved is the overnight financing in the middle.
With fewer people providing financing, the risk is reduced.
In the US, there are already government bond products running on-chain.
Japan is observing this time, not following to buy.
Government bonds on-chain change the settlement path, not the asset itself.
$BTC is not part of this chain.
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC Brothers, this time I'm really panicking!
$ETH is charging up again, current price 2711.92. The short position I opened the day before yesterday was still in floating profit in the morning, but turned into floating loss by the evening.
ETH perpetual 100x short, opened at 2688, current price 2711.92, floating loss -89.44%.
The market changes every day, Bitcoin is rising, Ethereum is rising, and $ZEC is even crazier.
I originally thought there would be a pullback before the holiday, but now it seems I might have misjudged?
Could the bull market still not be over?
Look at Brother Maji, he holds $157 million long positions.
BTC 455 coins, 40x; ETH 36,000 coins, 25x; HYPE 200,000 coins, 10x. Although currently also at a floating loss, the base positions remain untouched, and HYPE is even floating a loss of over 1 million U.
In contrast, I’ve only been short for two days and I’m almost unable to hold on.
If ETH keeps pulling up, my 100x short position is really in danger.
I can only admit: this time I might have misjudged.
Brothers, don’t be stubborn like me and short; if the holiday really pushes new highs, I guess I’ll have to pay the tuition for this short.
What do you think, should I keep holding or admit my mistake quickly?
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Many people are still waiting for the altcoin season confirmation, but it has actually quietly passed for more than a month. Starting from Bitcoin's rally in mid-August, I reviewed the top 200 coins by market cap. The biggest gainer in this period was $PONS, nearly 18 times in a single month, followed by a batch of unfamiliar new faces. What's even more worth watching is the buyback wave: $PUMP uses half of its revenue for buybacks, and $SOON is driving prices up with a new product buyback plan. Projects willing to spend real money on buybacks at least indicate that the team hasn't run away, the product has funds, and they are willing to share. Once this positive cycle starts, the confidence to push prices up is much stronger than just telling stories. $PONSThis market, isn't it just like picking up money!!
$BTC pulled back to 85516 again.
$ETH went straight from 2650 back up to 2733.
It's starting again.
Starting to draw the gates again.
Jumping up and down, just like a roller coaster.
Staring at this K-line that keeps swinging back and forth, I suddenly realized.
Sell high, buy low.
Just these six words.
Why did I lose before?
Chasing highs and selling lows, stubbornly holding on.
Now I completely understand.
If it dares to rise, I dare to short.
If it dares to drop, I dare to go long.
Riding the waves back and forth, isn't this a cash machine?
Just now when ETH pulled to 2733, I almost laughed out loud.
Isn't this just giving me money?
What trend, what macro, what ETF.
In a choppy market, it's all damn noise.🔥 Bull and Bear Battle: BTC fights hard at 85,000, ETH breaks the September curse, SOL sees institutional buying, ZEC whales hoard coins
$BTC briefly surged to $84,540 before quickly falling back, dropping below $83,600 and failing to hold the key resistance at 85,000. A large cluster of long-term holders' chips is concentrated between 84,000 and 85,000, forming the "heaviest supply cluster," which is the main obstacle to upward movement. If it cannot effectively break through and stabilize above 85,000 in the short term, it is likely to continue oscillating and consolidating between 82,000 and 85,000.
$ETH is around $2,712, having risen nearly 10% cumulatively in September, potentially recording the best September performance since 2016, breaking the usual average decline of 8.57% in previous years. The number of accumulated addresses holding ETH has risen to 23 million, with over 43 million ETH staked, accounting for 35.72% of total supply. The continuous contraction of circulating supply provides structural support. If it breaks through the resistance zone between 2,700 and 2,800, it may launch an attack toward $3,000.
$SOL ETF net inflows in the past 30 days reached $278.2 million, far exceeding XRP's $127 million, with net assets reaching $1.93 billion, officially surpassing XRP. Digital Commodities transferred 100,000 Canadian dollars from gold to the SOL treasury, and Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea completed stablecoin cross-border remittance verification.
$ZEC has surged nearly 19 times in one year, rising from $60 to around $1,394, ranking 9th globally by market cap. After falling about 18% from the all-time high of $1,693, it has entered a consolidation phase.$SI surge to 100m? The underlying data is moving very fast
Holders increased from about 21,000 to nearly 50,000
Lifetime holder rewards on StonkFun rose from about $885,000 to $1.69 million
$SI also moved from #2 to #1 in StonkFun's flywheel, while its market cap expanded from about $20 million to $45 million, eventually reaching a peak of $67 million$CORE 🔥CORE South Korea Market Watch: Strong Institutional Foundation, September Vulnerability Severely Hits Local Retail Investor Confidence
✅ Solid Foundation of Korean Institutions
Korea's leading compliant custodian KODA connected to the Core network early on, becoming the first local custodian to support CORE BTC‑Fi, allowing institutional funds to compliantly participate in CORE staking yield products.
Local exchanges Bithumb and Coinone have both launched CORE/KRW trading pairs, serving as the main trading channels for Korean users.
⚠️ September Vulnerability Incident Impacts Community
In early September, a validator reward vulnerability was exposed, with some nodes receiving excess tokens. The project urgently hard-forked and destroyed the excess minted tokens.
Following the incident, Bithumb and Coinone simultaneously suspended deposits and withdrawals. Korean online media and KOLs extensively reported on it, causing retail investors to question contract security, and the token price plummeted nearly 20% in a single day.
Although exchanges have gradually resumed deposits and withdrawals, confidence among Korean retail investors remains slow to recover. The institutional-level infrastructure remains intact, but retail sentiment recovery will take time.
👉 Do you think the CORE South Korea market can regain its previous momentum after this incident? Like if you agree with the analysis, and share your thoughts!
$CORE
⚠️This is an objective summary of project information and does not constitute investment advice.
#Positive signals from the 3-hour US-Iran talks? $CT promotional events to earn coins, absolutely do not buy, any promotional event by Ouyi to earn coins is a chump coin, just short it directly AVGO ETF has been bought for five consecutive days, with a net inflow of about 510 million on 9/28. It closed around 355 yesterday, rebounding about 1.6%, but I won't chase it for now.
Observed: U.S. stock ETFs have net bought Broadcom for five consecutive days, about $510 million on 9/28, and approximately $674 million, $435 million, $14 million, and $147 million on the previous days respectively, all net buys over five days.
On 9/29, it closed around 355.10, up about 1.58% from the 9/28 close of about 349.57, with an intraday high of about 361.86 and a low of about 354.00.
It’s still a bit short of the 10-day high on 9/22 at about 366.55, and much further from the 52-week high of about 495. The rebound after the pullback hasn’t yet stabilized.
Simply put: the box is slowly absorbing, but the price is still stuck in the rebound zone after the pullback, so don’t mistake the consecutive gains as a full-on charge.
It’s like someone is throwing money into the basket, but the price tags on the shelf haven’t truly turned green yet.
My view: Q3 AI chip revenue of about 16.7 billion, up about 221% year-over-year, and guidance for Q4 around 21.7 billion is a mid-term story. For the short term, I’m just observing this rebound and not chasing it.
Customer concentration is still rising. With nonfarm payrolls and PCE data this week, don’t treat the ETF’s consecutive buys as a free ticket to jump in.
Invalidation would be a renewed break below the daily low of about 354, or wait until it stabilizes around 362 before discussing adding positions.
Do you prefer to see it pull back near 354 to buy, or wait until it breaks above 362 to follow?
$AVGO $NVDA $TSM
#ThisWeekKeyNonfarmAndPCEData
#USDebtYieldsHitHighestSince2007GoldDropsOver3%$CP $XDP $BTC have been trading for 2 years, and still haven't mastered any skills—what kind of mindset is that?
At 18, looking at peers around me, they are either young wealthy women on the leaderboard or people who are content with a little capital.
I used to think having a few thousand USD was enough to be happy, and later just waiting for time would grow it. Having a few thousand USD, I thought if I didn’t withdraw and rode the bull market trend to make one more trade, I could possibly reach ten thousand USD and then rest well for half a year or more, but it often turned into emotional trading.
Now I don’t want to get rich, I don’t want to do anything, I don’t even want to play game orders.
The grand ambitions I spoke of can’t withstand my own greed and dissatisfaction.$150 million pure long naked run: Big Brother Maji's high-stakes gamble and dancing on the edge
Big Brother Maji strikes again, directly pushing the market to a new level—a $150 million perpetual contract long position. This entire fund is bet on BTC, ETH, and SOL, with no hedging protection at all, embodying the ultimate "pure naked run" style.
Compared to the previous $93 million position, this time not only is the scale significantly larger, but the leverage midpoint has also been further raised. The position allocation remains clear: BTC holds the base, ETH is the core with the absolute heaviest weight, and SOL serves as the highly elastic offensive position. However, this layout has a fatal flaw: the risk attributes of the three assets are almost completely synchronized. While they can all prosper together during a bull market resonance, once the trend reverses, it will face a devastating triple strike.
What’s even more nerve-wracking is the timing is especially tense. Tonight’s PCE data leads the way, followed closely by the nonfarm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve officials’ intense remarks hang like a sword overhead. Even a slight twitch in U.S. Treasury yields will cause the net value of this $150 million to swing violently. The current market is clearly under pressure; every failed rally and subsequent pullback silently pounds on his defensive line. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The winter before last, a friend posted a screenshot in the group.
I looked at it for a long time but didn’t understand.
He said just buy a little casually, just for fun.
I blindly bought $BTC.
That night after buying, I barely slept.
I checked the price every few minutes.
When it went up a bit, I thought I had a good eye.
When it dropped a bit, I started to regret it.
Later I heard another one was popular, so I tried $ETH.
After the fees, I was stunned.
I exchanged back and forth a few times, but my principal actually got thinner.
The dumbest thing was adding more after it dropped.
Always thinking it would rebound tomorrow.
But the next day it kept going down.
During that time, I didn’t enjoy my meals and couldn’t sleep well.
My wife asked if I had something on my mind.
I said no, just tired lately.
But deep down I knew it was greed.
Later I put the app away.
Forced myself not to check for a few days.
Slowly I recovered.
Now I still have a little $SOL left.
I let the ups and downs be.
No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don’t understand.
I’ve already left the group calls for buying signals.
I just glance at those showing off profits.
If they were really that accurate, wouldn’t they just buy quietly themselves?
This circle heats up one day and cools down the next.
Chasing back and forth only tires yourself out.
Only positions you can sleep well with are worth holding.
Profits are luck, losses are tuition.
That’s about it.
All earned with real money. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 $BTC
✅ The simultaneous rise of the three is a special combination of "monetary easing expectations + crude oil supply risk": the market is trading not on a major economic recession, but on the weakening purchasing power of the dollar, while energy supply is disrupted.
📌 Key indicators to watch for the future (to judge whether the trend can continue):
1. US Dollar Index, 10-year US Treasury yield (the core common barometer of the three)
2. Whether BTC spot ETF inflows continue
3. Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ policies, crude oil inventory data
4. Federal Reserve officials' speeches, inflation data, and whether rate cut expectations will reverse again📊 AI Storage Three Main Lines｜$MU $SK Hynix $SNDK
🟢 $MU｜Micron
16 long-term contracts locked in about $100B, Q4 revenue guidance $50B, gross margin 86%, EPS $31.
Tonight's focus is on three points: HBM revenue, gross margin, and whether RPO will be raised.
🔵 SK Hynix
As the leader in HBM, Bernstein has just lowered its price expectations for HBM.
The market's real concern may not be demand, but whether HBM4 mass production will be delayed by half a cycle.
🟣 SanDisk｜$SNDK
Pure NAND logic is strong, with 8 long-term contracts totaling about $93.9B, data center business share rising from 12% → 38%.
But the stock price has already pulled back about 23% from the high, and the DCF model valuation is only about $1,204.
🧠 Conclusion: Fundamentals remain strong, but valuation divergence is widening.
🔥 Fundamentals are high, but valuation has already shown significant divergence. Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$NIGHT Short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0254%, price +1.65%, open interest +1.94%. Increase in open interest accompanies the price rise; holding shorts past settlement faces both adverse price movement and funding fee expenditure.
$SOON Long side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate +0.0174%, price -0.3%, open interest basically unchanged. During the price decline, open interest remains basically flat; holding longs past settlement faces both adverse price movement and funding fee expenditure. 【Gold Insight | Rebound Repair Officially Starts】
Yesterday I clearly emphasized that the 4100-4110 area showed signs of stopping the decline three times in a row, but at that time the bullish condition was not clear, so I did not rush to act and instead patiently waited for new trading opportunities.
Originally planned to prepare two sets of strategies at 4105 and 4090 for both long and short positions, waiting for the market to give confirmation, but unfortunately, the ideal entry points were not provided.
However, the most important thing in trading is never to catch the absolute bottom, but to wait for the market to reveal its direction on its own.
We waited a whole day, and at least now we can confirm one thing:
Gold has started to show a rebound repair, and the short-term rhythm has already changed.
From further calculations of the daily structure, the key resistance area for this rebound is expected around 4340-4350, which is likely to be an important pressure zone for this repair phase.
So tonight the idea is very clear:
Look for buying opportunities around the 4180–4190 pullback area. #黄金#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $BTC just opened a short position near 83400.
This time it's not because I think BTC is about to crash, it's purely that this level makes me reluctant to chase longs.
On the 1-hour chart, the price previously surged from 82501 to 84544, a big push, but it clearly met resistance near 84500, then quickly dropped to around 83000. Now the price has rebounded back to around 83400, but the volume is no longer as significant as during the previous drop.
My own thinking is simple: short near 83400, betting on a pullback after the rebound.
If it breaks below 83000 again, I will continue to watch around 82500; if instead it rallies with volume back above 84000, I will admit this short was wrong and not fight the market.
Actually, I’m increasingly disliking trading by "guessing the big direction."
Yesterday I placed a long at 81800 but it didn’t fill, and today I didn’t chase longs just because I missed the entry. I wait to act when I feel the odds are right, cut losses if wrong, no need for explanations.
This short position is currently just a trading plan, not a trend judgment.
The most interesting levels for BTC right now are actually 82500 and 84500. Which side breaks first, I prefer to wait for the market to tell me.
First, focus on managing this trade well, don’t try to eat the whole move in one bite. Key Price Levels
Direction Price Logic
Upper Resistance 85,353-86,100 Upper edge of the heaviest supply cluster held by long-term holders
87,300 Recent high, effective breakout needed to open 90,000 space
Lower Support 84,000-84,500 Starting zone lifted by PCE, retest confirmation level
83,000 Short-term structural bottom line
82,000 Next target if 84K is lost $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Ethereum (ETH) 180-day implied volatility is at 53.5%, the 1st percentile of its range, and the 7-day tenor sits at the 5th.Takeoff🛫 $ETH Tonight's double test of Nonfarm + CPI, I'm setting a short here. Current price 2694.36, longs and shorts are temporarily deadlocked.
Institutional buying slows, heavy selling pressure on the order book; retail longs are crowded, diverging from smart money. If data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations strengthen, volatility increases.
Resistance above at 2739-2772, long liquidation zone below near 2460. Short stop loss placed above previous high, target 2604. But with a lot of ETH staked and locked, it's not a one-sided bear market, beware of reversals.
$BTC $ZEC Focus on data tonight.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Reducing Positions to Lock in Profits: The Survival Philosophy from “Short Sellers” to “Ants”
Position reduction has already happened twice. As some short-selling brothers jokingly say, now only the “ants” remain in hand.
In the trading world, position management often tests human nature more than directional judgment. From initially taking heavy positions to now cautiously testing the waters with light positions, this is not just a numerical reduction but a return to mindset. The so-called “ant” position, though seemingly insignificant, grants traders the most valuable asset—composure.
When positions are as heavy as Mount Tai, every point’s fluctuation tugs at the nerves; when positions are as light as ants, the market becomes an object of observation rather than a gambling casino. As long as the green hills remain, there is no fear of firewood running out. These remaining “ants” are both seeds of profit and the defensive baseline.
In this market full of uncertainty, the ability to exit unscathed is a skill, and the wisdom lies in leaving calmly with profits. Even if only ants remain, as long as you are still in the game, there is always hope for a comeback. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 BTC sets the direction, serving as the consensus anchor for the entire market. The weekly trend directly determines the overall market rhythm and space, making it the most stable ballast in the portfolio.
ETH supports yield, relying on PoS staking, DeFi, and RWA ecosystems to continuously generate passive cash flow, steadily maintaining the portfolio's foundation during volatile markets and smoothing short-term fluctuations.
SOL captures explosive growth, leveraging its high throughput and low fees as underlying advantages to capitalize on traffic dividends from Meme, blockchain games, and more, rapidly amplifying return elasticity during bullish sentiment phases.
OKB stabilizes sentiment, tied to platform ecosystem rights and deflationary mechanisms, charting an independent and steady trend apart from the broader market, hedging against extreme market risks and allowing for a more composed holding rhythm. The four asset types are layered and matched to balance steady defense with excess returns. $BTC ～$ETH～$SOL ～$OKB ～#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 US inflation data released, core PCE year-on-year at 3.0% below the market expectation of 3.3%, bullish for gold $XAU
The logic behind inflation data being lower than expected and bullish for gold is: inflation pressure decreases → the Fed's need to further raise interest rates diminishes → US Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure → interest-free asset gold benefits
Especially since gold had previously been suppressed by high interest rate expectations and high US Treasury yields. The overall market is still weak and fluctuating, but LINK has already pulled back from yesterday's high of 15.7 to 14.4, WLD is steady around 0.50, and BICO has even risen more than 3% against the trend. The most interesting thing today is not who is the strongest, but that three coins at completely different levels are all testing whether the previous round of gains has real support.
#WeakMarketFundsContinueToDiverge
#SmallCoinsEnterSecondaryConfirmation
$LINK is currently around 14.44, with a high of 15.77 yesterday. Around 14.4 today has become the first support; if it holds, regaining 14.9–15 will give a chance to challenge above 15.5 again. Falling below 14.4 means watching out for further profit-taking after the recent consecutive rises.
$WLD is currently about 0.495, still up nearly 20% over the past week. The 0.48–0.49 range is the most important defense line now; after reclaiming 0.50, first watch 0.52, and only after breaking through that look for 0.54–0.55. Its issue is not lack of resilience, but that the previous gains have already been considerable.
$BICO is currently about 0.02118, up about 3.5% in 24 hours. The 0.0207–0.0208 range is the first support; above that, watch for a breakthrough at 0.0216, and only after truly standing back above 0.022 can it be considered to have shaken off the recent continuous weakness.
This lineup: LINK holds 14.4, WLD holds 0.48, BICO waits for 0.022. True strength in a weak market is not a sudden surge, but that after falling, there is still capital willing to buy back key levels.🔥 LEVERAGE IS GETTING TESTED
Today’s $BTC setup comes down to a few key signals:
➤ 🇺🇸 PCE → 10Y yields → $BTC
➤ 🟠 $BTC: $82K–$83K is the key zone
➤ ⚡ 24H liquidations: $201.8M
➤ 📉 Longs: $129.6M | Shorts: $72.2M
➤ $ETH: $45.8M | $BTC: $32.2M | $SOL: $6.5M
If leverage keeps getting flushed, the next move could become clearer.
👀 Watching $BTC closely.#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching 1700 USD
The leader has something to say
ZEC dropped from 1697 to 1360, now it has pulled back to 1460, up 4.6% in 24 hours. Grayscale ETF split has landed, 21Shares European ETP is also in place, NU7 upgrade testnet on October 6, mainnet on November 5. Institutional product expansion plus protocol upgrades, the narrative remains intact.
But my judgment is straightforward: do not chase at this position. The positive news has been realized, ZEC rose from over 800 to 1700, more than doubled, now it is fluctuating violently at a high level, daily candles show increasingly dense long upper shadows, the main force is distributing in batches. Grayscale split landing is a catalyst but could also be a selling window.
I am out of ZEC, waiting for a stable pullback near 1400 before considering light buying. If it breaks directly, watch 1300. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Long position on BTC at 83000 is already in. Stop loss set at 81500, target between 86000 and 87000. Tonight is PCE, tomorrow night Micron earnings, Friday non-farm payrolls, three events packed together, position not heavy, no single-sided bets.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set for trades, good luck.The Alpha new coin airdrop at 4 PM today lowered the threshold directly to 223 points, which is a rare opportunity for everyone to participate. The quota is 200 coins, valued off-market at about 0.15 to 0.25 USD each. If it really surges to 50 USD at the opening, it’s like casually picking up a meal’s worth of money for the National Day holiday. For those wanting to earn points, it’s better to focus on $DGAI, which currently has the deepest pool and the most stable wear, making it more cost-effective than randomly swapping for other new coins. Don’t expect to get rich overnight; first, secure this sunny opportunity in your hands. $DGAI$2737: The Real Decisive High Ground for ETH Today
As of the evening of September 30, ETH reached a high of about $2737 within 24 hours. In the current trading context, this level carries significance far beyond the psychological integer barrier of $2700. $2737 not only represents the limit that bullish funds pushed to today but also clearly marks the specific defensive line where bearish selling launched a counterattack to push the price back down.
There is often a misunderstanding in the market about breakouts. If the price only briefly pierces $2737 without a significant increase in volume and then quickly falls back below $2700, this is merely a liquidity probe rather than a trend reversal. A true breakout must be accompanied by sideways consolidation after the breakout and a retest that does not easily fail. Only when these conditions are met can it be proven that the selling pressure above has been substantially absorbed by sustained buying.
Only by firmly holding the $2737 level can the market confidently reopen discussions about higher resistance levels from earlier periods. Until then, all upward moves should be approached with caution. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 BTC could be heading toward a decisive move tonight after spending nearly two weeks locked in a tight range. I’m still holding a short position opened more than a week ago, with 50% already taken off the table. For now, I’m still leaning toward a deeper correction rather than an immediate breakout. Keeping a close eye on tonight’s headlines and market reaction. 👀📉 #AMDWorldLabsAcquisition #TokenizedStocksOnAave #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #MarketUpdateWhen the rust flakes off the bronze tripod, it never gives the priest a heads-up in advance.
I have cleared the ashes of countless civilizations in stratigraphic profiles many times. Now, the fault line where $BCH surged to 316.6 USDT strongly resembles the city-state collapse before the Common Era caused by blind expansion. The Bollinger upper band has been pushed to 314.3, the RSI reading has climbed to a hot zone of 67.2, smart money on-chain is quietly diverting in the shadows of the ruins, while retail investors are still building rammed earth platforms, thinking they can build a tower to heaven.
There is nothing new under the sun. All the expansion and carbonization of bubbles are just the same carbon-14 decay cycle of human nature's inherent flaws. Large on-chain transfers are draining liquidity from the top. Every formation of a stratigraphic discontinuity in historical records begins this way—the euphoric buying is buried under the sand and gravel at the top, waiting for a merciless geological subsidence.
Stratigraphic sampling is complete. The false prosperity unearthed at the high level, it's time to clear the scene.
- Target: $BCH 🔴
- Entry: 314.0 - 317.5
- TP1: 303.5
- TP2: 292.0
- SL: 323.8
Ancient Rome had no eternal colonnades; once the support breaks, the ground is nothing but rubble waiting to be sorted.🏛️
#StrategyPlaybook #EveryDynastyMustCollapse BTC rose, but converting to euros doesn't necessarily mean a profit
HANetf's euro-hedged Bitcoin product EBTC is here. The official website lists the listing dates as September 29 in Paris and September 30 on Xetra. I'm more interested in which layer of volatility the "euro hedge" actually addresses.
For those who account in euros, besides the BTC price changes in USD, there's also the USD to euro exchange rate fluctuation. To calculate how much profit the account makes, both factors must be considered together.
A pure hypothetical example: BTC price in USD rises 10%, while at the same time, each USD can buy 10% fewer euros. Ignoring fees, the unhedged euro return on holding is 1.1×0.9−1 = −1%. Both sides move 10%, but the result doesn't exactly offset.
The design goal of EBTC is to reduce the impact of this exchange rate fluctuation. The price volatility of Bitcoin itself still exists, and the product does not become a capital-protected instrument because of this.
My view: The highlight of this kind of new product is to let investors clearly understand which risks they are bearing. When looking at products, besides the quoted currency, you also need to confirm whether there is exchange rate hedging, how fees are calculated, and the actual effect.
For the same BTC, using a different accounting currency can lead to different profit experiences. Before discussing returns, let's first align on which currency everyone uses for accounting.
#Bitcoin #ExchangeRate #ProductWatch So happy to see this news!
PCE suddenly dropped to 3%, but “Bonk Guy” shouted: The market might take off soon!
On September 30, the US core PCE for August fell to 3.0% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3%, and the previous value was also revised down. The cooling of inflation significantly exceeded the market’s prior expectations. After the data was released, market bets on an October rate hike decreased, and US Treasury yields also fell.
This is why “Bonk Guy” believes the impact of PCE has not been fully priced in by the market and continues to be optimistic about USELESS.
His logic is actually very simple:
Inflation cooling → easing rate hike pressure → yield decline → improved liquidity expectations → risk assets supported → high Beta coins benefit first.
Adding the historical seasonal performance in Q4 and the market’s changing sentiment toward risk assets, funds may start seeking high elasticity targets again.
But it’s important to note that cooling PCE doesn’t necessarily mean small coins will definitely rise; highly volatile assets like USELESS are especially sensitive to fund sentiment.
What’s really worth watching next is whether BTC can stabilize first, and whether funds gradually spread from BTC and ETH to high Beta altcoins.
If overall market liquidity improves and altcoin trading volume expands simultaneously, the elasticity of coins like USELESS could be further amplified; conversely, if BTC weakens, the so-called “PCE positive” effect might quickly be swallowed by market sentiment.The US dollar is just a round number, not a switch that automatically turns ETH strong.
The market always has a special fondness for round number thresholds. For ETH, 2700 USD is like a conspicuous psychological barrier. It is simple, eye-catching, and easily forms a collective memory among traders. But we must clearly understand that the price surpassing 2700 does not mean the sell orders above will automatically disappear; likewise, falling back below 2700 does not mean the bullish structure collapses.
What truly determines short-term strength or weakness today is the effective range between 2664 and 2737. The 2700 level happens to be the midpoint of this range, serving more as an emotional dividing line rather than a black-or-white trading signal.
Therefore, instead of being anxious about the round number threshold, it is better to focus on the actual battles at the edges of the range. A breakout above 2737 confirms momentum, while a drop below 2664 calls for caution about a pullback. Round numbers are just signposts; the real road conditions depend on the support and resistance within the range. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The first time I bought crypto was the winter before last.
A friend posted a screenshot in the group.
I looked at it for a long time but didn’t understand it.
Confused, I just bought $BTC.
That night after buying, I barely slept.
I checked the price every few minutes.
If it went up a bit, I thought I had good insight.
If it dropped a bit, I started to regret it.
Later, I tried $ETH.
After the fees were deducted, I felt disheartened.
I swapped back and forth a few times, and my principal shrank.
The dumbest thing was buying more when it dropped.
I always thought it would rebound soon.
But the more I added, the more anxious I became.
For a while, I didn’t even want to eat.
When my family asked what was wrong, I said nothing.
But deep down, I knew it was greed.
Later, I simply stopped looking.
I put the app away to force myself to calm down.
Now I still have a little $SOL.
I let its ups and downs be.
No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don’t understand.
I also left the groups that shout trading signals.
For those showing off profits, I just glance.
If they were really making that much, who has time to shout every day?
This circle changes every day.
Today it’s this that’s hot, tomorrow it’s that.
Chasing after it all just tires yourself out.
Only positions you can sleep well with are worth holding.
Profits are luck, losses are tuition.
That’s about it.
All earned with real money. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 Results after the current market analysis data was released
PCE+GDP came out overall dovish, directly violently pulling $BTC from around 83,000 to a high of 85,639, now retreating to 85,396, with a large bullish candle on high volume in one hour.
Although the 24-hour total market turnover is still down 24.18% year-on-year, there is a clear inflow of incremental funds during this news period;
Market flow: 330 coins rose, only 69 fell, the profit-making effect suddenly opened up, showing a broad rally pattern
First resistance: 85,600-85,700, the recent high just hit, now the first hurdle
Strong resistance: 87,000-87,400
First support: 84,800-85,000, the current short-term strength/weakness level after tonight's breakout, holding here means the bulls' momentum remains
Strong support: 84,200-84,400, the key level before the breakout, if it falls back below this, tonight's rally will become a false breakout
After the broad rally now, funds will gradually overflow from $BTC to mainstream coins, but rotation is very fast, chasing late is easy to catch short-term highs.
The data release gave a short-term upward push, now standing on a new level, but there is still heavy selling pressure at previous highs, and also keep an eye on Friday's non-farm payrolls as the next major variable.Brothers, how's it going! 🔥
These past two days, I've almost run out of words — Hakata, great location, high cost performance!
For those who followed, how was the meat you had today? Enjoyed it?
Last night it surged then fell back, I didn't sell. It's not stubbornness, it's logic and value: as long as the bottom line isn't broken, I hold on.
Next, don't just get excited, focus on strength and weakness:
If it can break through the resistance above and hold steady, the upward space truly opens;
If it can't break through, just wait patiently, don't chase or get carried away.
Key points:
· BTC: Has broken through the first 4-hour resistance at 85170, next target is the second resistance at 86400.
· ETH: The first resistance at 2742 hasn't been broken yet, watch and wait, don't rush.
· ZEC: First see if the 2-hour resistance at 1500 can be taken; after breaking through, look at the 4-hour resistance at 1565.
In short:
Eat the meat, don't be greedy; if no breakthrough, don't chase.
The market rewards the patient and also punishes the greedy.
Keep watching closely, set take-profit and stop-loss in advance, let's continue to follow the trend.
$BTC $ETH Don't just focus on the highs and lows of tonight's PCE; a hidden variable might be more important.
Tonight at 20:30, the PCE data will be released, and everyone is guessing the numbers.
But this time, I think something is easily overlooked: the adjustment in statistical methodology.
The market has already priced in some "possible downward revision of inflation," so even if the PCE comes in below expectations tonight, don't immediately interpret it as BTC ready to take off.Why is it harder for people to admit they were wrong after making their positions public?
Over the years of trading, I've found that once your position is exposed, it’s no longer just about money; there’s an added layer of pride.
If you quietly buy wrong, a stop loss just means losing a bit in your account; but if you publicly call for a long position and then admit you were wrong, it feels like confessing failure in front of everyone.
So when the price drops, the first reaction isn’t to reassess but to keep looking for positives, add more logic, or even increase the position to prove you’ll be right in the end.
I’ve suffered from this myself.
After buying into a project, I posted several bullish articles on social media. Later, when the data weakened and the trend broke, I actually started doubting but was reluctant to exit.
Because once you sell, it’s not just denying the trade but also seeming to deny what you said before. In the end, the position got heavier, the conviction stronger, but the account became more honest.
There’s nothing wrong with expressing publicly, but trading must keep the right to correct mistakes.
Opinions only represent the information at the time, not a lifelong commitment. The responsible approach is to clearly write down invalidation conditions in advance and update your judgment when those conditions are met, rather than packaging losses as faith to protect your image.
The market won’t change direction just because you have many followers or speak confidently.
Remember: the biggest fear about positions isn’t being seen by the market but being held hostage by your own pride; being willing to publicly go long isn’t skill, but daring to publicly admit mistakes when conditions fail is true trading discipline.#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The 30-year yield broke 5.6%, and the Treasury's buyback plan was only launched a month ago, yet yields have risen by 400 basis points. This is not a market failure; the market is telling Washington: you can't control inflation, nor can you control the deficit.
The highest since June 2002, closing at 5.567%. The 10-year yield touched 5.297%, the highest since 2007. The curve is extremely steep — the 2-year yield actually fell 3 basis points to 4.891%, with the short end betting "rate hikes are nearing the end," and the long end betting "the fiscal situation is hopeless."
Three forces are acting simultaneously. Oil prices have returned above $100, heating up energy inflation expectations; federal debt has officially surpassed 40 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding 1.2 trillion, accounting for about 25% of federal tax revenue; the corporate AI bond issuance wave is competing with the government for funds, systematically pushing up term premiums.
Treasury intervention has already failed. Two buybacks actually purchased only 5.2 billion and 4.1 billion respectively, both below the limits, and long-end yields have risen the more they buy. On September 28, Besent urgently hired Jefferies' chief strategist Zervos as an advisor, attempting to repair communication with the bond market.
Wall Street has begun discussing the 30-year yield rushing toward 6%. The head of rate strategy at BNP Paribas said — "After breaking 5%, there is no clear upper limit." For BTC, every step up in the risk-free rate makes the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets more rigid. 5.6% is not the end; risk asset valuations are shifting.