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Monthly Crypto Market Analysis (09.30)
Summary:
1. The price behavior of risk assets under the October rate hike and rate hike cycle.
2. U.S. Treasury liquidity withdrawal, unemployment rate at a cyclical low. Conditions for a peak in the U.S. stock market are almost met.
3. The Korean Composite Index that no one cares about anymore.
4. Bitcoin is very likely in the early stage of a bull market, but currently still needs a daily-level pullback.
5. Patiently waiting for the first weekly-level secondary buy signal in the bull market.
6. The probability of a new low is extremely low, but it is still not recommended to use too much leverage; caution is advised. $BTC $ETH BTC is holding near $83.6K while ETH edges higher and SOL lags, a modest sign that capital is still favoring the more liquid end of crypto risk. ETF inflow momentum supports the bid, but rate-hike odds keep the upside conditional.
Not advice, just analysis.The rate hike conversation may have cooled for now, but I don’t think the market can relax just yet.
Attention is shifting straight to the jobs data, and personally, I think this could be the next big piece of the Fed puzzle. Inflation matters, but if the labor market stays strong especially wages and unemployment the Fed has more room to remain patient and keep policy tight.
What makes this interesting is the balance. Too strong = rate concerns come back. Too weak = growth concerns take over. Somewhere in the middle is probably what markets would be most comfortable with.
I’ll be watching unemployment and wage growth more than just the headline payroll number. One report won’t decide everything, but it could quickly change expectations for what the Fed does next.
For BTC and equities, the reaction may come down to one simple question:
Does the jobs report give markets relief or another reason to rethink rates?
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext $BTC Here are a few clean rewrites for your $PUMP update: *1. Professional / Signal Style:* $PUMP update teachers - Price now at 0.005891. Total 361 whale accounts active. Long-short ratio at 513.40%, longs are dominating completely. 218 long whales with avg entry 0.0046448 - sitting on big unrealized PnL. 143 short whales with avg entry 0.0055255 - most are underwater. As a meme coin, daily chart is pumping hard and longs are already in heavy profit. High-level profit-taking could hit anytime. Meme Micron CEO says physical AI will consume massive storage
Micron CEO said physical AI is the next big market.
Short-term traders' first reaction after hearing this is to look for storage coins.
What exactly does it do: autonomous vehicles need to store maps and images.
L4-level vehicles have over 200GB of memory, storing several TBs.
How is this number calculated: one car is like a mobile server.
The more cars sold, the more storage chips are bought.
This is demand for chip manufacturers, not demand from the crypto space.
Whether storage coins rise or not has nothing to do with how many orders Micron receives.
After reading this from Micron, the storage coins in hand remain the same few.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $HYPE 🚨 October rate-hike odds are slipping—but don’t get too comfortable. Tonight’s PCE could flip the whole narrative.
I’m the mid-term intelligence guy. 👊🏻
Over the past two days, the market’s odds of an October hike have fallen from around 70% to roughly 50/50.
But here’s the catch: this doesn’t necessarily mean inflation is cooling.
#DailyOrbit xSPCX: Has already rebounded from the bottom, 4h-level moving averages are bullish, MACD turned positive; however, KDJ is at a high level, indicating short-term overbought conditions.
1. Major structure: Rebound started from the low point of 145, short-term trend is bullish, but short-term indicators are overheated, a pullback or consolidation may occur at any time;
2. Key observation points:
- Upward: Only after breaking through and stabilizing above the previous high of 158.10 will a new round of upward space open;
🟢Positive news (bullish drivers)
1. SpaceX AI plan: Reform Grok pricing, plan to launch 4 subscription tiers; Musk aims to deploy 300GW AI computing power annually;
2. Starship acceleration: 1-2 launches per week by 2027; SpaceX + Tesla cooperation to develop solar power capacity;
3. UBS raised expectations: Q3 performance expected to benefit from Starship + AI computing power growth; Starlink expanding overseas deployment (Kazakhstan).
🔴Negative risks (potential suppression)
1. SEC sued two private equity funds: accused of illegally selling SpaceX and other Pre-IPO shares, misappropriating funds; this is a risk factor that may cause market sentiment disturbance.
Summary: Fundamentals are mostly positive, but there is a regulatory risk hanging over.
- Downward: If a pullback occurs, 149-150 is the first line of defense support; if it breaks below 145.19, the rebound is declared failed and weakness returns.
$SPCX $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 1. Current Price and Market Status As of October 1, 2026, the price of ETH is approximately $2,680, with a slight 24-hour increase of 0.17%. Over the past 30 days, it has risen cumulatively by 9.16%, rebounding from a low of $2,356 to a range of $2,747, with a current market capitalization of about $327.2 billion. The core contradiction lies in: the price is rebounding, but derivatives leverage continues to shrink. This forms the key to understanding the current ETH market. 2. Open Interest Drops to March Lows: A Signal of Leverage Unwinding The most noteworthy signal is that ETH derivatives open interest has dropped to 12.49 million ETH, the lowest level since March 1. Since the July low, open interest has decreased by 1.46 million ETH — prices have risen steadily while leverage has been continuously shrinking, a typical "price up, open interest down" divergence. More subtly, the derivatives taker buy-sell ratio remains negative, indicating that contract traders are overall biased towards selling. The 24-hour liquidation amount is about $56.8 million, with longs accounting for $32 million. This means that during the upward movement, longs are still being continuously liquidated, and the market has not formed a unified bullish force. 3. ETF Fund Flows: Inflow Pace Clearly Slows The cumulative net inflow of ETH spot ETFs is $13.94 billion, with total assets under management of $17.78 billion. However, September's performance reveals institutional hesitation: Continuous inflows from the beginning to mid-month, with a single-day peak of +$270 million. However, from September 15 to 17, there were three consecutive days of net outflows There’s something in the past three months you might have missed: ETH has risen 72%, while BTC only rose 42%.
ETH has clearly outperformed, and it’s been three months in a row.
Why? One reason is that ETH previously dropped harder than BTC, crashing from 4950 to 1570, a deep fall followed by a strong rebound. Another is that funds have started moving from BTC to ETH.
My prediction is: if the ETH/BTC ratio continues to climb, the "altcoin season" might really be coming. Because money is coming out of BTC’s safe vault, flowing into ETH, and then spilling over into bigger altcoins — this is the old pattern.
But there’s one signal I need to watch: ETH’s current gas fee is as low as 0.07 Gwei. What does that mean? Almost no one is using the chain. Prices are rising, but the chain is asleep, which isn’t very healthy.
So my judgment is: ETH can touch 2800 in the short term, maybe even 2900. But to really break 3000 and start a big rally, the chain has to come alive first, someone really has to be using ETH.
Do you have more ETH or more BTC in your hands? #Bitcoin private key vulnerability# The person catching dark web criminals secretly took 50 bitcoins for himself: 9 years later, he has to repay $2.4 million
The most ironic law enforcement story is not that the criminal is too clever, but that the gatekeeper himself reached out.
Paul Chowles, a former official of the UK's National Crime Agency (NCA), was originally responsible for investigating crypto assets related to "Silk Road 2.0," holding seized devices, wallet data, and extraction permissions. In 2017, he transferred 50 BTC from the seized wallet, passing through mixers, dismantling addresses, and using crypto debit cards, gradually turning the "public stolen funds" into "his own spending": coffee, withdrawals, travel-related small expenses, spending a total of over a hundred thousand pounds. Term Structure Radar
The annualized basis of $SOL mid-term contracts is higher than both ends: near/mid/far annualized basis +2.75%/+2.87%/+1.26%. The mid-term unit time premium is higher, and cross-period trading also depends on actual bid and ask prices; the annualized difference does not equal lockable profit.#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
Micron's earnings, is AI trading making a comeback?
Here's the conclusion first: it exceeded expectations, and it was a crushing beat.
Q4 revenue was 54.2 billion, market expectation was 51.5 billion, directly 2.7 billion more. Adjusted EPS was $33.42, expected $31.61, also beat. The most impressive was the data center business, which grew from 1.58 billion last year to 18 billion, an 11-fold increase.
There were many highlights in the earnings call. CEO Mehrotra said: "AI is becoming superintelligent, memory is enhancing this intelligence." To translate: the stronger AI gets, the more memory is needed, and the more Micron profits.
More concretely, management said supply and demand will be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026, and currently "there's no sign of when balance will be restored." 26 strategic customer agreements have been signed, locking in over 35% of revenue through 2030.
So has capital returned to AI trading? The after-hours movement was quite conflicted. It rose briefly then fell back because next quarter's gross margin guidance is 86.25%, slightly down from this quarter's 87%, mainly due to increased employee bonuses.
But frankly, revenue and guidance both blew past expectations; the gross margin fluctuation is just a side note. On Wall Street, voices are already saying "there's no negative signal indicating the cycle is turning down."
The AI story is far from over.Poolin's Texas mining farm has been put up for auction again.
I followed a round of such bankruptcy assets last year. At the time, I thought I was getting a bargain, but the delivery was delayed for half a year, and the money was tied up and couldn't be moved. The lesson is: cheap is cheap, but time is not on your side.
This time Hut 8 is still the benchmark buyer, with a maximum of 180 million, but note the structure—the delivery only covers 100 million, and the remaining 80 million is linked to AI, high-performance computing, and other data center projects, excluding mining facilities.
In plain terms, the court reopening the bidding is just trying to squeeze out more money. It's good for creditors but basically irrelevant to the $BTC market.
What’s really worth watching is who will raise their stake on October 2.
If it's only Hut 8 itself, then this price is the floor price; mining farm assets are really hard to sell right now.
Before more money comes in, I’m going to pretend I didn’t see this news.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI $BTC This kind of shitcoin, I don't know if you are shorting it or not, but I am shorting it.
It has none of value, concept, or ideology; shorting it is no problem at all.
Look at the $UNI trend, dropping all the way from 10.95, the rebound can't even hold above 9.2, the moving averages are pressing it down tightly, and volume is shrinking day by day.
This is not a shakeout; this means no one is catching the dip.
A DeFi token with no real income support, relying solely on narrative to prop up its market cap; once the hype dies down, it will crash faster than anyone else.
I entered the short at 9.285, now it's 8.843, floating profit 14%.
I'm not in a hurry to exit because once this downtrend forms, it won't end easily.
A rebound is an opportunity to add to the position, not to run for your life.
$BTC
$ETH
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Bitcoin's volatility today is insanely wild, with heavy losses on both sides 🪙
After PCE dropped to a 6-month low, Bitcoin surged $1700, liquidating $60 million in short positions within just 15 minutes
Then BTC plunged $2200 to $83,800 within 60 minutes, liquidating $56 million in long positions
Bitcoin's monthly candle closes today, setting the stage for an intense battle between bulls and bears #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Core is taking another step towards decentralization.
Since 2023, validators operated by the DAO have helped maintain continuous block production, and with the addition of independent operators, the network has been strengthened. These validators have collectively supported years of uninterrupted block production.
In the coming months, the DAO will implement its long-term plan to gradually transfer the remaining block production roles to independent validators, based on the work these operators have already done to keep Core running.
This transition marks a new chapter for Core, driven by independent operators.
Thanks to every validator and Coretoshi for their contributions to advancing Core.*Updated - $BTC This structure could get ugly fast* BTC $83,752 now — holding MA20 but losing momentum. If this weakness continues into weekly close and $88k was local top, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive Head & Shoulders develop over next few weeks. Left shoulder: late August $86k Head: $88-89k September top Right shoulder building now: $84.5k → $83k breakdown would confirm. Neckline around $83,000 — exactly where we are. Break + close below $83k opens $81.5k → $80k → $77k measured movBitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because there is no central recipient.
A Ponzi scheme requires someone to run away with the money, but it can't even find a person. $BTC In the past 7 days, BTC open interest contracts have decreased by 49,000, marking the largest weekly contraction since October 2025, yet no large-scale forced liquidations occurred. This indicates that leveraged funds are actively withdrawing rather than being wiped out by the market. With low volatility and declining funding rates, the bulls seem more like they are taking profits, and the market may be undergoing chip rotation.
Institutions are positioning contrarily: BlackRock withdrew 1,150 BTC from Coinbase Prime, while Strategy increased holdings by 1,666 BTC at an average price of $85,700. Contracts are cooling down, spot accumulation is happening; who is exiting and who is entering is more critical than the price.
Regarding price levels, $82,500 serves as short-term support, with a break possibly testing the $80,000 mark; $85,000 forms resistance above. Going forward, closely watch whether open interest can stop falling above $82,500. If contract reduction slows and price holds support, the rotation may be nearing its end; if contracts continue to decline and price breaks support, the leveraged exit narrative needs to be reconsidered.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Many people only know that Sun Yuchen made his fortune through TRON, but in fact, his real first pot of gold came from XRP. At the end of 2013, he joined Ripple Labs as the first employee in the Greater China region, officially holding the title of Chief Representative for China, and his daily job was promoting XRP to banks and payment institutions.
During those years, he accumulated his first substantial capital and built crucial connections that would later prove vital. By 2017, when Ethereum became popular, he jumped in directly: copying ETH's code to create TRX, telling stories with models on stage, while quietly selling off during his own pump. When questioned, he claimed it was just moving wallets. When the coin price peaked, he still shouted that everything was just beginning, advising retail investors to hold on, but those who chased the highs were met with a crash.
Even now, some newcomers still believe this narrative, but the outcome is very likely to be no different.
$XRP🚨 $157M IN EXPOSURE — BIG BROTHER MAJI FACES HEAVY PRESSURE.
Big Brother Maji’s latest positions are taking a serious hit, with his BTC, ETH, and HYPE longs now showing notable floating losses. Total exposure is estimated at around $157M.
The key question: how much longer can this position hold before the pressure intensifies? 👀
🔸 $BTC: 455 BTC
⚡ 40x leverage
🎯 Entry: $83,748
📉 Floating loss: ~$316.8K
💥 Liquidation: $77,184.
#DailyOrbit #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
Can the super cycle of the storage industry really be perpetual?
Micron's latest earnings report is quite impressive, with Q4 revenue at $54.229 billion and next quarter guidance raised directly to $61.5 billion, with quarterly EPS reaching $38.15 $MU
The company also secured 26 long-term contracts locking in $150 billion in orders, asserting that supply-demand shortages in 2027 and 2028 will be more severe than this year.
There are three variables worth watching:
First, customer resilience
Micron locks in short-term profits through long-term contracts, but the premise for tech giants to aggressively underwrite storage costs is that end-user AI can continue to monetize. If downstream ROI falls short of expectations, this buyer-pay model could shut down at any time.
Second, capital expenditure erosion
Micron's future capital expenditure will exceed $50 billion. The huge depreciation costs from capacity expansion will make it very difficult to fulfill promises of gross margin recovery if price increases slow down.
Third, the cycle law never disappears
Currently, HBM and high-end DRAM are extremely tight, but after Samsung and SK Hynix release new capacity, the supply-demand balance may tip faster than expected $SKHY
Micron's short-term cash flow is still expected to be unbeatable, and the stock price remains high. But the market focus has shifted from how good the performance is to how long the peak can hold. The massive capital expenditure and uncertainty of end-user AI monetization will be the biggest sources of future volatility.
DYOR Latest Position Adjustment Released｜Total holdings shrunk to 149 million, after Big Brother Maji quietly reduced positions, is the pattern still intact?
Compared to the previous round, there are obvious changes in positions: overall exposure contracted from 157 million to 149 million, with BTC, ETH, and HYPE all simultaneously reduced; the account finally shows one position turning green, but most positions are still enduring unrealized losses.
Breaking down the details of the three core positions:
- BTC｜393 coins · 40X full position
Compared to before, 62 coins were reduced, cost raised to 83795.20, current unrealized loss -143,800 U; liquidation price lowered to 71679.67.
Actively reducing positions directly lowers total risk weight, but still retains 40x high leverage, indicating no complete abandonment of BTC's bullish elasticity, just an early withdrawal of part of the front line.
- ETH｜35,000 coins · 25X full position
After a slight reduction, it became the only profitable position in the entire account, +360,300 U.
This is now the safety pillar of the entire position; 25x leverage is relatively restrained, liquidation at 2552.29, holding here means the account still has enough room to maneuver, making it the most stable part of this round's layout.
- HYPE｜191,000 coins · 10X full position
Also chose to reduce positions, unrealized loss narrowed to -248,700 U; cost 90.31, liquidation 63.95.
The improved loss is not due to a strong market rebound, but a buffer gained by cutting some chips; there is still no clear signal of a short-term counterattack.On October 1st, I wish my great motherland peace and prosperity, with a wealthy people and a strong nation!
Last year, gold prices rose more than 40 yuan/gram in 8 days during National Day; such a market is rare and cannot be expected to repeat this year.
Currently, gold prices are hovering around 4100–4200. Only if it can firmly hold 4250–4320 USD can it strengthen in the short term! Without a short-term trend, it will just sweep up and down.
Core PCE cooled in August, and the October rate hike expectation was shattered. But oil prices are not falling, so there may still be a rate hike in December. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the next key checkpoint.
October 28th’s rate decision is only 6 days before the midterm elections, so another rate hike would be awkward. Most likely, they will hold steady—which is not a big positive for gold, but at least not negative.
Gold is essentially money. Fiat currency can be printed, the US dollar can be suppressed, but not in the long term. Since 1971, gold has risen from 35 USD to this year's high of 5600, a 157-fold increase. When Walsh took office and hawkish expectations hit, the price was smashed from 5600 to 4099, leaving many trapped at the bottom.
Long-term bullish, short-term cautious. High leverage is like dynamite; physical gold plus low-leverage dollar-cost averaging is the way to keep up with time.
The 4120-3950 range has consolidated for more than 40 days before,
which is a good support level to set up long-term longs.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $BTC $ETH *Updated - BTC Drop, Can't Sleep:* BTC dropped again — now $83,342, really can't sleep. My $BTC long losing again. Luckily not near liquidation yet, so holding for now. Checked 1H & 4H liquidation heatmaps — longs getting rekt everywhere. In last 12H, long liq $87k-$85k cluster is dense, short liq above $87,687 thin. Sigh... It's October now. Looked at data: Q4 2023: +56.9% Q4 2024: +47.7% Q4 2025: -23.1% History gives hope, but also slaps. I'm still long-biased, but batch entries only, leverage$HYPE HYPE has surged nearly 6% to ~$91.4 and is now pressing the $91.5 resistance after reclaiming the $85 area. But the next 9.92M HYPE unlock (~$857M) is scheduled for Oct. 6, while OI remains elevated around $2.6B. With price approaching the $97.98 ATH, the risk/reward favors fading resistance unless $92 breaks decisively.
Short setup.
Entry: $91.5 - $93
TP: $89 - $86 - $83 - $79
SL: $96.2The Ethereum whale that has been dormant for 9 years just moved 356 million
In 2015, Ethereum ICO.
Someone subscribed to $ETH at a price of 0.31 USD.
Today, ETH is around 2670 USD. This position has yielded 8600 times the return.
For 9 years, he only did one thing: nothing
From 2015 until now, this whale has hardly moved the ETH in his hands.
The last time he made a single transfer over 100 million was 4 years ago.
Just now, he moved.
6 hours ago, 133,298 ETH, worth 356 million USD, was transferred to a brand new address.
This is one of his biggest moves in 9 years.
So the question is, do you think he’s simply changing wallets or preparing to make a move? After spending a long time in the crypto circle, you'll admit an iron rule:
The more complex the strategy, the faster you die.
The more you like to research, the more likely you are to research your account into oblivion.
Many retail investors swap several coins and multiple systems a day, calling it strategy optimization, but in reality, they're accelerating losses. Clumsy and restless, yet they think they're evolving.
After years of pitfalls, I only kept one most stable model:
Single coin, single direction, swing cycle.
Focus on one coin, only follow the trend, squeeze every bit of the trend dry. Because it's stable enough, clear enough, and most importantly, not easily swayed by emotions.
1. Only trade mainstream: choose between BTC and ETH
Don't jump from AI today, MEME tomorrow, to Dogecoin the day after. You're not trading; you're binge-watching a drama. Focus on one target, and your timing will get more accurate.
2. Only follow the trend: go long when it rises, short when it falls
Don't bottom-fish, guess tops, or bet on reversals. When the market gives a direction, follow it; when it doesn't, wait. Don't use your little cleverness to challenge the trend; the trend punishes disobedience.
3. Position splitting: structure of small losses and big gains
Light positions at low points, this is your ticket in
Add positions at key points, this is your certainty
Take profits in batches with space, this is your profit
Strict stop-loss on losses, this is your life
Maximize profits on gains, this is your money $BTC $ETH A day of universal celebration, last night I hit the most awesome HYPE with one shot, the happy National Day brother is picking up the tab for you! Wishing my great motherland a happy birthday, prosperous people and a strong country, hoping all your parents, wives, husbands, and children are on the path to a well-off life without looking back! After XAU surged to 4226 last night, the first wave of T was successfully completed, most people's average price has dropped to around 4250, today within the day it will test the 4120-4150 range, the lower the better, if the previous low breaks with volume it’s a loss, but you can T once more; XAG offers a chance below 60.5, the lower it goes, just throw in 1% casually; BTC support and resistance levels are 87550/85150/78425/75475, currently within the large range of 85150-78425, short-term 1h/2h/4h shows a balance of bulls and bears, 5min/15min indicates a need to camp and build a base, last night the ultra-short term touched 85632, no breakout yet, temporarily multi-level cycles show bulls slightly stronger; ETH support and resistance levels are 2750//2525/2400/2225/2100, the outlook is consistent with BTC! MU Micron's earnings exceeded expectations across the board, although the market had no major dips, there was also no capital chasing, overall it was moderate, even with some positive news leading to slight capital outflow, so when you encounter this, just observe, don’t always think one piece of news can change your capital class, don’t use your old A thinking to look at the Americans! Operational advice does not constitute investment basis: if the market gives opportunities during this holiday, it will be an excellent time to position, still optimistic about the end of October and November An ancient whale bought ETH at $0.31 and moved 130,000 coins today.
A participant in the 2015 Ethereum ICO subscribed to 560,000 ETH at a cost of $0.31 each.
Today, he transferred 133,298 of them to a new address, worth $356 million. This is the first time in 4 years he has made a single transfer worth over a hundred million.
Four years ago, when he last made a large move, ETH was still below $1,000. This time, ETH was around $2,700. But unlike many whales in the past, this money didn’t go to an exchange, just to another wallet.
Why would someone who has held for 11 years at almost zero cost suddenly move their position?
He doesn’t need to sell; these 130,000 coins are pocket change to him, and he still holds over 400,000. But choosing to move at this point at least shows he is reorganizing his assets. It could be splitting wallets, preparing for future operations, or just a security adjustment. No one knows what his next move will be.
But one thing is certain: someone who bought at $0.31 and has held for 11 years, every move he makes is worth a second look. He doesn’t watch K-lines or macro trends, only the timing he feels is right.
Do you think he is preparing to sell, or just moving to a different place?
$BTC $ETH *Updated - After Waking Up, Still Watching:* $AKE is crazy again — $0.03344 now, candles shooting like they're on fire. I'm a bear by nature, but facing this wild run, my hand hovers over keyboard, not daring to press. It's not I didn't judge, it's I know it doesn't play by logic. Fine to miss this money. Not shorting $AKE doesn't mean giving up. I'm shifting focus to $SOON — $0.3925. Logic simple: the more it pumps, the more I short. Not out of spite, waiting for that loose pin after sentiment #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC After an epic bull market first half, Bitcoin currently stands at a very delicate technical crossroads. By linking two core indicators—volatility (Garman-Klass) and derivatives open interest—a clear market picture emerges: prices remain firm at high levels, but volatility continues to contract, while contract open interest has dropped to a six-month low. This "low volatility + low open interest" resonance often signals that a sharp market shift is brewing. 1. Volatility contraction: "Accumulation" during high-level sideways movement From the Garman-Klass realized volatility chart, Bitcoin has seen a significant reduction in extreme event frequency after approaching historical highs, entering a "time for space" consolidation phase. The dense yellow "low volatility" markers in the chart indicate that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears at high levels is calming down. Typically, sustained volatility contraction is a precursor to a market shift. The current price holding firm at high levels shows resilience in the spot underlying buy-side; meanwhile, shrinking volatility means positions are stabilizing, and the market is digesting previous gains while awaiting new macro catalysts. 2. New low in open interest: the deep game of "price up, open interest down" Synchronous with volatility contraction is the "price up, open interest down" divergence revealed by Glassnode data. Bitcoin price rebounded to $80K+ highs since late September, but BTC-denominated contract open interest has steadily declined, reaching the lowest point since March (breaking below 4This is the RSI of $BTC on the 6-hour timeframe. You see, it’s converging around the 50 average level. That means there’s a 50% chance of going up and a 50% chance of going down. Trading right here could lead to liquidation or hitting stop-loss due to long candle wicks. Therefore:
1. Wait to see which direction the price will break out.
2. Plan to buy or sell far away at the two zones of support and resistance, which are 81k and 87k respectively.After the US August PCE data came in below expectations, Bitcoin briefly surged to $85,598, making it seem like it was about to break through. However, it quickly fell back to around $83,600. As of 8:15 AM, it was quoted at $83,680, down slightly by 0.13% over 24 hours.
Why the rise and fall? The core contradiction remains macroeconomic. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 5.28%, and the high long-term interest rates directly suppress risk asset valuations. Although PCE has cooled down, the core PCE year-on-year is still 3.0%, far from the Fed's 2% target, and the expectation of rate cuts is not so certain.
There is also an interesting contrast in the capital side: retail investors are watching, while whales and institutions are accelerating accumulation. In the past 10 days, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC. Strategy also spent $142.7 million to add 1,665 BTC. ETF weekly inflows reached $2.4 billion, the highest since last October.
My personal judgment: in the short term, expect oscillation in the $82,600–$85,600 range, with $85,599 as the recent key resistance level. But with whales accumulating so aggressively, once ETF funds continue to flow in and circulating supply tightens, a breakout may be closer than everyone thinks. Do not chase the highs; wait for the signal. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $CT premium is too high!! Brothers going long must set stop losses! Because it has no real value at all! There are no actual positive factors; it's all the personal sentiment of the manipulators pumping the price! Of course, brothers going short must keep their positions small! Don't be like me! #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH rebound encounters selling pressure above, what will Ethereum rely on for the next breakthrough?
OKX spot 24-hour range is about 2,658—2,739, with a turnover of about 313 million USDT, and the current price is in the middle of the range. Price recovery requires continuous support from spot buying; if it is only driven by contract leverage, it is more likely to fall back after a surge. Network activity and fee rebound are the key to whether mid-term demand can improve.
If the 1-hour chart shows volume and stabilizes above 2,739 and holds after a pullback, I will increase my judgment for continued upward movement; if it falls below 2,658 and the rebound volume shrinks, then be cautious of the range shifting downward first. Seeing that Anthropic signed an $84.5 billion computing power agreement with SpaceX, the group chat started hyping that the AI industry chain is about to take off again.
To look on the bright side, an order of this scale for computing power indicates that the demand for large AI models is genuinely strong, not just relying on financing stories as before. The entire computing power industry chain, from chips to servers, indeed has solid demand support.
But on the flip side, these AI companies are signing long-term orders worth hundreds of billions to trillions, and no one can be sure how much will actually be fulfilled according to the contracts. If the commercialization of large models falls behind, these huge contracts might just remain on paper, which may not be a real positive for related AI concept coins.
My personal view is that the long-term logic for AI is sound, but the market immediately pumping prices upon seeing news of hundreds of billions somewhat prematurely prices in expectations for several years ahead.
Everyone should pay close attention to the actual delivery and implementation of these computing power orders later on, and not just rush in based on contract amounts. What do you think about these trillion-level long-term computing power orders? Are they solid demand for the AI industry chain, or are expectations being overdrawn prematurely? Let's chat in the comments.
$BTC
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 SOL The lowest point of this bear market cycle is at 60, and the second peak of the previous bull market double top was 253.49. Calculating with a 0.382 retracement, 60 + (253.49 - 60) * 0.382 is approximately 133.9, meaning the range from 133 to 134 is the first major Fibonacci level and currently the first relatively strong resistance.
Once it can stabilize above this level and break through recently, the upward space will open layer by layer, the price base will gradually rise, and the short-term volatility rhythm will also increase, naturally making the profit potential more obvious. There's no need to rush near the resistance level; it's not too late to follow after it stabilizes and confirms.
$SOL#AnthropicSpaceX$84.5B Anthropic's IPO story may be turning into a race between revenue and compute costs 👀
Up to $84.5B in SpaceX-related agreements sounds huge, but the bigger number is $518B in long-term infrastructure commitments.
What caught my attention is the 90-day exit option on many deals. That flexibility matters when 2025 revenue was just $4.59B.
AI growth needs compute. But if infrastructure spending keeps outrunning revenue, scale itself could become the biggest risk.$BTC
Viewpoint of this ID
BTC has been building a consolidation zone since the low of 82563, surged to 85649.95, then pulled back, returning to the consolidation range, representing a shakeout and rest after consolidation expansion. The one-time volume from the impulse rally has been released; bulls need to accumulate strength again.
Entry: Wait for a minor-level pullback to form a bullish divergence + bottom fractal, then buy near the consolidation support (ZD); if volume breaks through the consolidation resistance (ZG), wait for a retest without breaking below ZG before attempting a third buy.
Stop loss: Place defense below the consolidation support (ZD); breaking below ZD invalidates the current-level consolidation structure.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box marks the consolidation at this level, with ZG≈84000 and ZD≈83000. Starting from 82563, multiple minor-level consolidations formed the consolidation zone. Then a surge created a high at 85649.95, but no new consolidation was formed; the price pulled back into the consolidation, forming an expanded consolidation. The key bottom line is 82563; to the upside, the price needs to hold above ZG to have a chance to challenge previous highs.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
At the surge to 85649.95, volume spiked instantly, indicating concentrated short-term demand. However, volume quickly faded after the rally, unable to sustain new highs, followed by a long bearish candle and a pullback, with supply entering—this is a classic sign of a rally stalling at highs. During the pullback, volume is less than the peak during the rally, with no panic selling, indicating a shakeout phase. Currently, bulls and bears are balanced within the consolidation, with no clear accumulation or distribution signals.
Key Points to Watch
The market is oscillating within the consolidation box, with 85649.95 as strong resistance. Only trade waves within the consolidation; do not chase rebounds. Focus on waiting for minor-level bullish divergence signals. [Fed Hawkish Signals Resurface]
🚨 Latest news: Fed officials signal the possibility of another rate hike in 2026.
Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.30% at one point, with the high interest rate environment continuing to suppress risk assets.
📉 For BTC/ETH/SOL: short-term bearish
🟢 ETF funds remain supportive
Key focus: US employment data on Friday.
In short: High interest rate pressure persists; whether ETF buying can withstand macro pressure will determine the short-term direction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 10.1 BTC Today Silk Road
$BTC rebound 842-846 to enter short positions accordingly, target 851, first target 833, second target 824
Pullback near 830 to stabilize, lightly buy calls to test, target 826, target 838
BTC surged to 85632 yesterday then faced pressure and fell back, closing with a long upper shadow, call positions lost momentum after attack. Overall biased towards a downward consolidation, the main trend favors short positions, but short-term pullbacks to support will have corrective rebounds, do not blindly short.
Do not blindly chase shorts during the decline, patiently wait for the rebound to the resistance zone before entering accordingly.
842-846 is today's key resistance; if rebound meets resistance, enter short positions; once volume breaks above 85632, resistance is broken, abandon short position strategy immediately.
There is short-term support near 830; if pullback stops falling and stabilizes, lightly buy calls to test. Short-term call positions are counter-trend rebounds, only capture small waves, quick in and out.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $SOON Typical "epic short squeeze" rally! A 160% surge in 7 days. Although extremely overbought in the short term, the spot main force is aggressively accumulating in the long cycle, which is fundamentally different from a pure zeroing scenario. Short-term observation is advised; caution is wise, everyone.
RSI has long been severely overbought. The strong resistance above is at $0.55, and short-term support lies between $0.45-$0.48.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are missing out/shorting, while large holders are moderate (extreme contrast).
OKX retail long-short ratio is only 0.66 (extremely bearish or missing out), Binance retail is 0.9497 (balanced).
Large holder count long-short ratio is 0.8119, and large holder position long-short ratio is 1.0757.
Large holders are biased long but not extremely fervent.
Fundamentals (hardcore support):
Backed by top institutions including the Chairman of the Solana Foundation, co-founder of Solana Labs, and head of Coinbase Ventures.
The project plans to burn 3% of tokens (30 million) and has locked 35.97 million SOON.
Although there was a negative unlock of 30 million tokens previously, now the funds have chosen a direction with a violent surge.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Closed position, 10x full position. After holding for about 18 days, captured approximately a 4.2% increase in coin price. With 10x leverage, the realized return reached +37.13%, pocketing 58 ETH. The maximum position size was 1,953 ETH, but the closed amount was 1,562 ETH, indicating a strategy of taking profits in batches.
The BTC trade was even more aggressive: opened long at 82,160, closed at 83,582 on 9/30, held for 9 days with only a 1.7% price increase, amplified 10x to +16.13%, pocketing 262,417 U; full position of 198 BTC, exited immediately after closing. SOL opened long at 113.16 on 9/18, closed at 114.67 on 9/24, 6 days with minimal volatility, leveraged 10x on a position of over 100,000 coins to earn +154,052 U. The key is not perfect timing, but choosing mainstream coins, giving time, and exiting partially or fully after profits, avoiding turning unrealized gains into gambling.
Currently, BTC is consolidating between 82k-84k, ETH between 2.6k-2.7k, SOL faces resistance at 117-122, with macro PCE/US bonds still pressuring. Don’t get carried away by these cases. Leverage should only be based on how much you can afford to lose; liquidation distance is always the top priority. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
The figure of 5.6% made me open my mortgage calculator again.
On September 29, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.6%, the highest since 2002. I stared at the screen for a long time, and my first reaction wasn’t the bond market, but the mortgage.
With long-term rates moving like this, it means the market is saying: money won’t be cheap for decades to come.
Strangely, short-term expectations have cooled down. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in October dropped from nearly 70% to about 50%. On one side, short-term rate hike expectations are falling; on the other, long-term yields are soaring to new highs—this kind of divergence itself is unsettling.
What concerns me more is another piece of data: by the end of 2025, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash US Treasuries, accounting for 7% of tradable US Treasuries, a historic high. Many of these are highly leveraged basis trades.
To translate: there’s too much borrowed money piled up in the bond market. It’s fine as long as yields keep rising, but once volatility amplifies, these positions will be forced to liquidate, turning into a stampede. Selling pressure will surge, liquidity will dry up, and eventually, the impact won’t be limited to the bond market.
I’m not a hedge fund manager, just an ordinary investor. But I roughly understand one thing: 5.6% is not just a number; it’s a string pulled tighter and tighter. The other end of the string is connected to mortgages, corporate financing, stock valuations, and the assets in my account.
Before closing the market software, I glanced again at that yield curve. It’s steep, so steep it makes you uneasy.Woke up already stuck, hope to get unstuck.
These past two days I've been playing $SOON, mostly shorting, but I made some profit because the dog whales dumped a few times, and I got out.
Yesterday I saw it surge from 0.4 at night to 0.56, I couldn't help but go long, but woke up to see it at 0.49. I added a position this morning, now it's 0.5, hope my luck isn't this bad—every time I go long it dumps. Gotta believe in the power of belief, hope it pumps all day today.
Then yesterday I got into a new coin called $CT, it also dumped first then pumped. Damn, I got in halfway and got stuck opening a short, luckily I got out fast. Today it pumped again. These new coins these days all act the same: dump first, pump up, then dump hard again.
Right now I played AKE yesterday, shorted a bit, made 5u profit, this counts as a relatively successful short.
As for $ZEC, I want to go long but also don't want to. At this price, damn, I've been cut multiple times, up and down, I'm scared and might stop playing.
U coin hasn't gone above 0.18 for two weeks now, holding it for the second week. Forget it, don't want to think about it.
Happy National Day, genius traders, today you can sleep in. $HYPE: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 90.40-90.80 range (near the Bollinger middle band and resistance level) and then enter short.
· The initial target is 88.80; if this level is effectively broken, then look for the previous low at 84.50; set stop loss above 91.00.
Core basis:
1. Moving average breakdown suppression: The 15-minute MA and Bollinger middle band (90.42) are sloping downward, price broke below this level and failed to rally back, establishing a short-term bearish pattern.
2. Bear trap pattern: After peaking at 91.84 and falling back, the rebound highs keep decreasing, which is a typical downtrend continuation pattern, making a direct breakout above the previous high highly unlikely.
3. Volume, price, and risk-reward ratio: The rebound shows decreasing volume, the decline shows increasing volume, and once the support at 88.87 breaks, a sell-off is likely. Using 91 as stop loss, aiming to break below 88.87 offers a very high risk-reward ratio.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million｜Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 7
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 2213 Yuan
Family, the Great Demon King's 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million battle, today I lay my cards on the table and thoroughly analyze this market wave for you!
Many have asked me why I've been so steady lately; just look at the screenshots and you'll understand.
Two empty short positions, $PONS 3.5x short, BTC 10x short, all currently in floating profit.
First, about PONS:
Entry average price 0.5532, current mark price 0.5242, already floating profit of 18.32%.
This asset surged too aggressively earlier, clearly overheated in the short term. I identified the short opportunity for profit-taking and entered. The liquidation price is pulled up to 0.7277, with a solid safety buffer. Not afraid of small rebounds or shakeouts; as long as it doesn't break the strong resistance, the short logic remains unchanged.
Now for $BTC:
Short opened at 86382.6, current price 83463.7, floating profit of 33.79%.
Failed to break previous highs, bulls lack follow-through, liquidity retreats, naturally leading to a downward retracement. I didn't chase the rally but chose to stand on the side of trend reversal. The liquidation price is pulled out beyond 320,000, almost no short-term liquidation pressure. Holding steady is the key.
From 500 to 100 million, it's not about getting rich overnight with one bet, but about seizing every opportunity, controlling position size, and maintaining safety boundaries.
In a bull market, you don't have to only go long; after sharp rises, corrections offer great shorting opportunities.
The market always harvests those chasing rallies and panicking on dips, while the Great Demon King is the one who calmly lies in wait, letting the market play out according to his script.
Next, I will continue to hold and observe:
If BTC fails to hold the 83000 support, the short space can still open; once it strongly pulls back above 86400, I will accept the loss and exit, never stubbornly holding on.
As long as PONS doesn't firmly stand above 0.55 again, I will continue to hold this short position.
Step by step, the 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million is a long road, but every step I take is clear and deliberate.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
After the market close on September 30, Micron will release its earnings report. I still hold some Micron shares, so it's not like I'm not nervous.
The company's guidance is very attractive: revenue of 50 billion ± 1 billion, EPS $31 ± 1, gross margin about 86%. The market expects a bit more—revenue between 50.8 and 50.9 billion, EPS 31.5. Last quarter was only 41.46 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of over 20%. The demand from AI data centers is indeed pushing HBM and advanced DRAM forward; HBM4 has already been shipped in large volumes to major customers, and certified samples have been sent to several companies.
But the problem is, the market already knows these stories.
I'm not an analyst, just an ordinary retail investor. I only care about three things: first, can the 86% gross margin be maintained? No matter how hot HBM is, if DRAM and NAND prices start to soften, profits will be eaten away. Second, what will the guidance say for the next quarter? If it just meets expectations, the stock price may have already run up in advance. Third, the supply and demand outlook for fiscal year 2027—that's the key to deciding whether I keep holding or sell.
Earnings numbers are about the past; guidance is about the future. If Micron only delivers a "meets expectations" report this time, the market probably won't buy it. The AI storage narrative is very attractive, but the valuation has already gotten ahead.
We'll see after the market closes. I just hope it won't be another classic scenario of "earnings beat expectations, but the stock price drops."The sideways king is back again, rising from the ashes!
Today it surged to 0.07 again, but I don't believe it can break the previous high this time; I shorted directly at 0.07.
$CAP has rebounded from around 0.05 to 0.07025, up 8.39% in 24 hours.
It looks strong, but if you look closely, the previous high of 0.07902 is pressing down right above. This time it didn't even touch the previous high, clearly the volume can't keep up.
Looking at the MACD, DIF and DEA are sticking close near the zero line, and the red bars are pitifully short, showing a serious lack of upward momentum.
SAR is at 0.05344; although the price is still above it, the daily chart shows some fatigue after continuous rallies.
Now it’s facing resistance again near 0.07. This kind of rebound can’t hold at all; it looks more like a false breakout to lure buyers.
Why am I confident to short at this position? Because the logic hasn’t changed.
First, there is a lot of trapped positions above.
Between 0.075 and 0.079, how many people got trapped last time it surged?
Every time it rebounds here, it’s ruthlessly suppressed down.
Second, macro pressure is the nemesis of altcoins.
The non-farm payroll data will be released on October 2, and there’s a rate hike meeting at the end of October, with about a 50% chance of a hike.
In a high interest rate environment, Meme coins without real value support will face a stampede once funds withdraw.
So I decisively shorted at 0.07031; now around 0.07025 you can try a light position, set stop loss above 0.075, and target first 0.06; if it breaks down, it will head to 0.05.
Today is National Day, happy National Day to everyone.
If this trade profits, I can treat myself to hotpot tonight. Let the dog whales fall!
$BTC
$ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点