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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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今天凌晨,美国参议院《CLARITY法案》程序性投票定格在49:50。 通过门槛是60票。差了整整10票。 比特币瞬间跌破7.5万美元,Coinbase暴跌10%,Circle跌超11%,Strategy跌5.3%。 整个加密概念板块,一夜蒸发数百亿美元。 但有意思的是——没一个人敢说它“彻底死了”。 共和党参议员Ted Cruz引用了一句电影台词: “《公主新娘》里有句话:'死了'和'基本死了'之间存在很大区别。我希望它能够重新活过来。” 翻译成人话就是:现在还没断气,但ICU的灯已经亮了。 那它到底卡在哪了? 表面上看是票数不够——共和党53席,需要至少7名民主党人倒戈,结果一个都没争取到。 但真正的原因,比票数更扎心。 伦理条款。 说白了就是:特朗普家族到底能不能一边制定加密政策,一边靠加密赚钱? 民主党参议员Warren直接在投票前开炮——她说这个法案会在近百年的证券法上“撕开巨大漏洞”,特朗普家族可以通过World Liberty Financial继续获利,而新加的伦理条款不过是“小小的遮羞布”。 共和党这边呢?已经接受了民主党约95%的修改要求,特朗普本人也同意把加密资产转入盲信托。 但还是不够。 有民主党人私下承认“其实快谈成了”,但共和党领导层在投票前最后一刻关掉了谈判窗口。 你品品——不是谈不拢,是不想在选举前谈拢。 因为11月就是中期选举。 政治算计压过了一切。Warren要拿特朗普的加密生意做靶子拉选票,共和党也不想在选举前给民主党送政治筹码。 加密行业,成了两党互殴时躺在地上的那具“尸体”。 Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse投票后在X上发了一句话: “这一刀,真疼。” 他还说了一句更狠的:“民主党的反加密大军,把政治凌驾于好政策之上了。” 你信不信,这话换个人来说——加密行业自己也是这么被政治的。 那还有救吗? 参议员John Kennedy说了——法案还没死,可以等“跛脚鸭会期”再推。 什么叫跛脚鸭会期?大选已经结束,但新国会还没上任的那段过渡期。 落选的议员还在位子上,说话还算数,这时候推法案,不用怕选举报复。 这是最后的窗口。 但问题是——选举之后,国会格局可能翻天覆地。 如果民主党拿下参议院,CLARITY法案直接进了棺材——不是“基本死了”,是“真死了”。 即使共和党保住多数,跛脚鸭会期还有预算案要过、人事任命要批、国防授权法要审——CLARITY法案排在第几位,谁说了都不算。 数字商会CEO Cody Carbone直接泼了盆冷水:“指望跛脚鸭会期迅速完成补救,可能性并不高。” 白宫加密顾问Patrick Witt的话更狠: “今天这一票的代价,可能要好几年后才能真正知道。但有一件事是确定的——未来全球金融市场的标准,可能不再是华盛顿和纽约定的,而是布鲁塞尔和北京。” 所以现在是什么状态? 法案没死。只是半身不遂,躺在参议院的走廊里等担架。 跛脚鸭会期是最后的救生艇。但救生艇上有没有座位,取决于11月的选举结果。 而这艘救生艇能不能准时出发,取决于国会那帮人愿不愿意把打嘴炮的时间拿来干正事。 在华盛顿,最稀缺的资源从来不是选票——是意愿。 $BTC $ETH $SOL
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Senate vote ended: 49:50. The bill fell far short of the 60-vote threshold. In theory, with 53 Republican seats, a little bipartisan effort should have passed it. But throughout the entire vote, the real sticking point wasn’t the technical details of crypto regulation. The sticking point was one person—Trump. First, look at some numbers. In 2025, Trump declared over $1.4 billion in income from crypto businesses. What does that mean? It’s more than the revenue of any publicly listed crypto company in the U.S. last year. How did he make it? Trump Coin: sold about $635 million World Freedom Financial: took nearly $800 million, including over $520 million from crypto token sales and over $250 million from business equity sales And this World Freedom Financial is run by his two sons, Donald Jr. and Eric. The president personally pushes policies, and his two sons personally collect the money. Then before the vote, the Republicans came up with a "final compromise plan." Core content: The president must transfer "large" crypto assets into a blind trust and is prohibited from issuing or promoting digital assets while in office. Trump agreed. Sounds tough? Look at the exemption clauses and you won’t be laughing. The restrictions cover the president, vice president, members of Congress—and their spouses. But not their children. To translate: Trump has to put his crypto assets in a blind trust. But World Freedom Financial, held by his two sons, doesn’t have to move a muscle—and this company already got a banking license earlier this year. The bill’s ethics clause restricts the president but not the president’s sons. This is the essence of Washington-style compromise: it looks like something is done, but actually nothing is done. It’s not just people in the crypto community who are angry. Warren directly called this ethics clause a "weak fig leaf" before the vote. She was even harsher—this clause seems to ban the president from issuing coins, but the enforcement switch is controlled by the attorney general appointed by the president himself. State attorneys general have no authority over the president, vice president, members of Congress, or federal judges. Having the president’s people enforce laws that constrain the president. This design itself is already dark humor. Warren added another jab: Trump and his family profit $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, while buyers of his crypto projects lost tens of billions—meme coin buyers alone lost nearly $4 billion. Who makes money and who loses—it’s crystal clear. Even law enforcement isn’t buying it. The day before the vote, the New York Attorney General led a coalition of 17 states and the District of Columbia attorneys general to jointly send a letter to the Senate, explicitly opposing the CLARITY Act in its current text. Reason: The bill would weaken states’ enforcement power against crypto fraud, preventing states from continuing to serve as the first line of defense against crypto scams. The letter cited numbers: crypto-related fraud losses reached $11.4 billion in 2025, a 22% year-over-year increase. Crypto scammers are harvesting profits, and the bill is about to loosen the reins around their necks. After the vote failed, the market voted with its feet. Bitcoin plunged as much as 5.3%, falling below $75,000; Ethereum dropped over 8%, both marking the largest single-day declines since June. Coinbase plummeted 10%, Circle crashed over 11%. Globally, 115,716 people were liquidated within 24 hours. The "regulatory clarity" the industry spent years pushing was paused by a single exemption clause. What’s the most ironic? Before the vote, Trump said he agreed to the concession because "this will be the strongest arrangement in federal ethics law." The strongest arrangement—the clause doesn’t cover his sons, enforcement power is in his appointee’s hands, and it expires on January 20, 2029. Just coincidentally, it ends on the last day of his term. A person who made $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025 rolled out a "regulatory framework." The core ethics clause of this framework precisely avoids the actual operators of his family’s crypto business. Then the Senate said: No. The 49 senators present upheld a basic common sense: you can’t be the referee, the player, and have the goalposts in your own backyard. $BTC $ETH $SOL

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