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The procedural vote on the "CLARITY Act" just ended: 49 in favor, 50 against. The threshold was 60 votes, missing by 11. Then the market exploded. Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, hitting a low of 74,989. Ethereum dropped to 2,358, SOL fell below 100 to 97, and XRP plunged over 10% to 1.32. But did you notice one thing—the Senate vote happened in the early morning, but BTC only dropped later in the morning. What does this mean? The vote result was just the fuse; the real bomb is in another direction. Let's talk about the bill itself first. The core of this bill is to clearly define the jurisdiction boundaries between the SEC and CFTC; the industry wants "regulatory clarity." Before the vote, Republicans even proposed a "last, best, and final" revision, adding state attorney general enforcement mechanisms, authority to respond to stablecoin deposit outflows, and developer protection clauses. Trump also agreed to transfer crypto assets into a blind trust to try to resolve ethical controversies. And the result? Warren still wasn't convinced, and Democratic senators collectively voted against it. What does a 50:50 vote mean? It means the problem isn't the bill itself; it's political games hijacking crypto legislation. With 53 Republican seats, they must cross party lines to get votes. Neither party wants to bear the political cost of deciding "who regulates what between the SEC and CFTC." Kennedy put it bluntly: it might have to wait until the lame-duck session. Cruz self-mockingly quoted a movie line: "There's a big difference between 'dead' and 'mostly dead.'" In plain language: the bill isn't dead, but it's been thrown into the political meat grinder of the midterm elections. What does this mean for traders? Don't expect regulatory benefits in the short term. The boot hasn't dropped yet, and that's the biggest bearish factor. Now let's talk about the really important thing—the biggest bomb this week. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. The market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has soared to 92.4%. Goldman Sachs changed its forecast, JPMorgan changed its forecast, HSBC changed theirs too—all shifting from "no change" to "rate hike in September." The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.045%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield briefly touched 5.402%. Have you thought about what this means? A 10-year Treasury yield above 5% means the return on "risk-free assets" is higher than your expected returns from crypto trading. Why would institutional funds take risks? That's why Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling $449.4 million, with net assets dropping from 101.3 billion to 97.49 billion. Liquidity is tightening, and it's a more fundamental tightening than the CLARITY Act. The bill's boot has dropped, but the Fed's boot hasn't. The real test is at the interest rate meeting, not in the Senate. How to watch key levels? Downside: 74,900-75,000 is today's low and today's lifeline. The 4/8 Murray level is near 75,000. The 75,500 support that Jiang Zhuoer mentioned has already been broken. If the daily close falls below 74,900, the next stop is 72,000-73,000, and further down is the daily Fibonacci 78.6% at 72,620. Upside: 78,000-80,000 is the first wall. A new catalyst is needed to break through effectively—either weak nonfarm payrolls or a recovery in ETF inflows, one of the two. Solana is worse off, dropping from above 100 last week to 97 now, with staking yields falling from 5.8% to 2.2%. Altcoins are getting hit doubly hard in this environment. Trading discipline—three things: First, don't chase longs on the first rebound candle after bad news hits. This is the dumbest thing retail investors do. The bill failed, the first green candle appears, they feel "the bad news is over," and rush in. Then they get hammered by the second wave and get cut clean. Second, wait 24-48 hours to see if BTC can stabilize above 74,000. If it can hold and close above 74,000, a short-term rebound is possible, with a target of 78,000. If it can't hold 74,000, don't hold on; reduce long positions and reassess at a lower level. Third, position size. Now is not the time for heavy positions. Before the macro boot drops, any heavy position is a gamble. You're not betting on direction, but on the Fed's wording. Three variables ranked by importance: Fed > US Treasury yields > CLARITY Act. The bill is noise; the Fed is the signal. Stop obsessing over the Senate vote results. What really determines your account's profit or loss this week are the few words coming from Powell's mouth early tomorrow morning. $BTC $ETH $SOL