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Written before the interest rate meeting, when the rate hike expectation is locked in, the focus of the market is on Waller's speech! After tonight's retail data release, combined with previous CPI and employment data, the U.S. economy shows a typical K-shaped pattern—high inflation + hot employment + economic resilience. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is basically locked above 90%, with a 40% chance in October and 49% in December. From a probability perspective, the September hike is no longer the focus; instead, attention is on the policy guidance brought by Waller's speech—whether it will push for a rate hike in October or December. According to Waller's previous policy of reducing forward guidance and focusing on data, the current data indeed gives Waller more policy space, but he still needs to consider the bond market issue, as this is currently a typical phase of coordinated policy adjustment between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Different expectations bring different market dynamics: No rate hike, or even a rate cut, is a very low probability event. Risk markets shift from suppression to optimistic rise, with a short-term rebound; bond yields for 2, 10, and 30 years decline in the short term, but the market then faces a key question: under high oil prices and high inflation expectations, if the Fed does nothing, will the economy get out of control? Bond yields will quickly rebound later, and high interest rates will again suppress risk markets. Dovish rate hikes, more dovish? Market performance varies under different degrees: a) rate hike, while the dot plot shows no further hikes needed, combined with Waller's statement that this hike is just an insurance measure to control inflation. Risk markets rebound, bond yields for 2, 10, and 30 years