FIL at $0.81, have you been cut?
First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a drop, the whole network is full of complaints.
August low was 0.61, surged to 1.03 in September, up 70%. Then a sharp drop to 0.75 in two days, now back to 0.81. The monthly line is still up 25%, the yearly line still down 68%. The candlestick tells you: 0.75-0.77 held as support, the 20-day moving average is close to the price, RSI 50-55 is neutral, the first wave rebound is not dead, now it’s box consolidation, not a crash.
First thing: 75% supply cut on October 15, this is FIL’s biggest card this year.
Protocol Labs and the Foundation unlock 66.7 million FIL annually, block rewards add another 21.7 million. After October 15, new supply will only be block rewards, annual issuance will be cut from 10% of circulating supply directly down to 2%—a 75% cut. This is the core logic behind the September surge to $1.
But the market has already priced in one round. The drop from 1.03 back to 0.81 shows the supply cut expectation was front-run.
Second thing: the product is moving toward "real charging," but the scale is negligible.
Filecoin Onchain Cloud, Filecoin Pay, Fil One (S3 compatible, $4.99/TB/month), NV28 upgrade—all directions are correct, shifting from "stacking capacity" to "selling orders."
But on-chain payment annualized revenue is about $140,000.
Yes, you read that right, $140k. Corresponding to a $660 million market cap, it’s almost zero.
Third thing: the technicals tell you this is a box, not a trend.
Strong support: 0.75-0.77 (sharp drop low, losing it would lead to 0.72/0.68)
First resistance: 0.82-0.86 (retracement supply zone)
Strong resistance: 0.90-0.92 (rebound confirmation level)
Previous high: 0.98-1.03 (only a volume-backed hold counts as a second challenge)
Price is close to the 20-day line, above the 50-day line, but still below the 200-day line. Typical "mid-term bottoming, long-term no trend reversal."
Only a volume-backed break above 0.86 qualifies to look at 0.92-1.00; breaking below 0.75 ends the first wave rebound, looking for buy orders at 0.68-0.62.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
October 15 supply cut of 75%, supply structure changes fundamentally
August low rebound structure still intact, 0.75 held
Funding rates slightly positive, bulls haven’t fled
AI storage + DePIN narrative brings huge elasticity
On the other side:
1.03 already priced in the supply cut, front-run
Paid ARR only $140k, fundamentals can’t support $2-3
200-day line still pressing overhead
Macro rate hikes landing, no liquidity easing
Key level 0.81, only 6 cents above the death line 0.75.
Those 6 cents are the bulls’ lifeline.
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Pullback to 0.775-0.790 stabilizes, 1h chart doesn’t break previous low, light long position, targets 0.845/0.86/0.9, stop loss 0.748. If rebound stalls at 0.845-0.86, reverse to short, targets 0.80/0.775, stop loss 0.878.
Swing traders:
Buy in batches at 0.72-0.78, target 0.92-1.0, reduce positions around October 15.
Mid-term players:
Only add positions if all three conditions are met: hold above 0.86 + paid data doubles + BTC holds 75,000. Otherwise, FIL remains a "narrative rebound coin," not a "fundamental revaluation coin."
FIL fell from 1.03 to 0.81, you panic. FIL rose from 0.61 in August to 1.03, you missed the ride.
The two easiest groups to get cut now:
Those chasing 0.81 as a "bottom start"
Those blindly shorting from 1.03 down, ignoring the rebound structure since August
Supply cut is in October, now is September’s chip exchange.
Position size smaller than conviction, don’t treat FIL as faith, it’s only fit for swing trading now.
0.75 is the lifeline. Break it, the story resets. Hold it, there’s still play.
At 0.81, do you dare to catch the dip? $BTC$ETH$FIL
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