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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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Bankless联合创始人David Hoffman,5月21日清仓了持有六年的ETH。 然后他买了五个币:ZEC、HYPE、LIT、NEAR、VVV。 三个月后成绩单出来了:ZEC涨110%,LIT涨369%,NEAR涨54%,HYPE涨55%,VVV跌6%。同期ETH只涨了8%。 组合整体收益率约90%-120%,跑赢ETH超过70个百分点。 但今天我不想跟你聊“该不该抄他作业”。 我想拆的是——他为什么买这五个,而不是ETH。 先看他的钱分成了两拨: 50%等权重买了VVV、NEAR、ZEC、HYPE。剩下50%定投了LIT。 五个标的,覆盖四条叙事轨道: 隐私 → ZEC 链上衍生品 → HYPE、LIT 跨链基础设施 → NEAR 去中心化AI推理 → VVV 没有一条和L1估值叙事有关。 不是“ETH不行了”,而是他判断L1叙事这套估值逻辑,已经走完了它的周期。 这五个币的共同特征就一个:能证明自己。 ZEC的催化剂是ETF。 灰度Zcash现货ETF(ZCSH)8月25日在NYSE Arca上市,不到两周积累近7亿美元资产规模,净流入超1.79亿美元。ZEC今年涨超160%,比特币同期跌了13%。隐私赛道的钱是实打实进来的,不是喊单喊出来的。 HYPE和LIT的催化剂是协议收入和回购机制。 Hyperliquid把约99%的手续费用于回购销毁HYPE,年化收入7.48亿美元,累计销毁4817万枚HYPE。Lighter的回购速度约为HYPE的两倍,自TGE以来已程序化回购约1550万枚LIT,占流通供应量约6.3%。每一笔交易都在变成买盘。 VVV的催化剂是代币销毁和AI收入挂钩。 7月起,每100美元API积分购买中的5美元自动回购销毁VVV,年发行量从1400万枚降到200万枚。AI用量涨,回购就涨。 NEAR的催化剂是隐私永续合约。 通过整合Hyperliquid推动机密衍生品,Hoffman甚至给它贴了“ZEC通用化版本”的标签。 每一个标的,都能说清楚:钱从哪来,什么时候来,来多少。 那ETH呢? Hoffman自己在清仓解释中说得非常清楚: “ETH即货币”的叙事,不是失败了,而是已经达到了它潜力的天花板。 翻译成大白话:ETH的故事讲完了,市场已经把该给的价格给了。 未来网络的增长,可能更多由Layer2和应用层捕获,而ETH本身的价格结构上下重估空间有限。 ETH不是技术不行。是它的估值逻辑已经跑完了。 “ETH即货币”这套叙事,在2021年值3000美元,在2026年还是值2500美元。叙事没变,价格也没变。市场已经把它定价得明明白白。 所以Hoffman的框架到底是什么? 一句话:在当前流动性稀缺的环境下,买那些“能证明自己”的资产。 不是买“我觉得它会涨的”,是买“它的收入在涨、回购在跑、资金在流入”的。 不是买“叙事还没兑现的”,是买“叙事正在被链上数据验证的”。 ZEC有ETF资金流入,不是白皮书上的隐私理想。 HYPE有每天回购的现金流,不是画饼的去中心化愿景。 LIT有可验证的zk电路,不是“相信团队”的口号。 Hoffman 9月18日喊出“山寨季比想象中来得更早”。 当天ZEC报1512美元,较他约560美元的入场价涨了约170%。NEAR单日暴涨30%至3.54美元,HYPE创下89.92美元历史新高。 山寨季来没来,你说了算。 但他5月就埋伏好了。 $LIT $NEAR $ZEC
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
On May 21, Bankless co-founder David Hoffman announced he had liquidated all his ETH. On the same day, Ryan Sean Adams posted that "the first era of Bankless has ended," stepping back behind the scenes and handing full control to David. Also on that day, former employee Lucas revealed on social media: "Bankless clearly laid off most of the team yesterday. There was no word of thanks, nor any public announcement to help team members find new positions." One liquidated, one stepped down, one exposed layoffs—three people took three actions on the same day, with timing so precise it seemed rehearsed. But the story gets even more interesting. On June 3, Hoffman disclosed his buy list: VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, LIT. Entry prices were clear: NEAR around $1.40, HYPE about $45, ZEC about $560, LIT about $1.35. On June 5, these coins plummeted. What was Hoffman's response? He only casually mentioned a floating loss on ZEC. He had just announced his holdings two days earlier, then two days later the prices crashed, and he chose silence. Do you think he panicked or was waiting? On September 18, the answer was revealed. Hoffman posted on X: "We have now entered altcoin season, and the real market moment has come earlier than expected." On the same day, he labeled NEAR as "a generalized version of ZEC," saying ZEC encrypts capital, while NEAR encrypts business activity. Let's look at his portfolio at this time: LIT: $5.02, entry price $1.35, up 272%. ZEC: $1512, entry price $560, up 170%. NEAR: $3.49, entry price $1.40, up 149%. HYPE: $86.51, entry price $45, up 92%. VVV: about $25, up about 58%. During the same period, ETH rose from $2127 to $2473, up 16%. Returns five times that of ETH. Then he chose this moment to publicly declare "altcoin season has arrived." Do you think he was sharing a market judgment or managing his own holdings? Don't rush to criticize him. Put emotions aside first. Hoffman's chosen tokens do have real catalysts: ZEC—Grayscale spot ETF launched, asset size approaching $700 million. Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly confirmed holding ZEC, calling Zcash a privacy complement to Bitcoin. NU7 governance vote showed 98.9% support to retain the halving mechanism. HYPE—Protocol has burned 48.17 million HYPE tokens, worth about $3.9 billion. After AQAv2 mechanism started, an additional $135 million to $160 million is repurchased annually, with ETF cumulative net inflows around $301 million. NEAR—Fee Switch mechanism activated in February, with 100% of protocol fees used to repurchase NEAR on the open market, forming a textbook value capture flywheel. He is not shouting blindly. The coins he chose have real substance. But the timing of his shout is the real thing to ponder. Look at another data point. BlockchainCenter's altcoin season index read 37 on September 9. The threshold for altcoin season is 75; only above 75 is it considered altcoin season. 37. Not even half the threshold. Where is mainstream capital flowing? As of September 9, the net inflows to ETFs in the past 30 days were: Bitcoin $3.42 billion, ETH $1.76 billion, SOL and XRP about $200 million each. Money is revolving around top assets, with no spillover into the broader altcoin market. The "altcoin season" Hoffman talks about is the rally of a small group of coins. Not a rotation across the entire market. When he calls altcoin season, the altcoin season index is only 37. This is not market judgment; this is portfolio management. Here comes the core issue. When a person controls one of the most influential media platforms in crypto, every "market judgment" they make naturally carries leverage. Bankless has 200,000 email subscribers and 2 million podcast downloads monthly. Their voice in crypto is not "just a Twitter account," but a media machine that shapes narratives. What did Hoffman do with this machine? He liquidated ETH in May, completed his build-up, experienced a crash, saw his holdings soar, then at this point declared "altcoin season has arrived"—and conveniently packaged his second largest holding NEAR as "a generalized version of ZEC." ZEC is surging, and tagging NEAR as "ZEC 2.0" is perfectly timed. I do not deny Hoffman's judgment ability. His reason for liquidating ETH is logical—"The 'ETH is Money' narrative is complete, most fees and profits have been diverted to Layer 2, and ETH has limited room for market revaluation." His coin selection logic is clear: betting on privacy track with ZEC, derivatives track with HYPE and LIT, cross-chain infrastructure with NEAR, decentralized AI inference with VVV. The results prove he was right. Five times ETH's returns—who can argue? But please remember one thing: When a person's media power highly overlaps with their holding direction, every word they say requires you to ask one more question: Are they sharing insight or looking for buyers? Hoffman may be right. But he is not predicting altcoin season; he is seeking more participants for his altcoin season. His holdings need a narrative to support their valuation, and his platform just happens to have the ability to create narratives. Put the two together, and you are that "more participant." $BTC $ETH $ZEC

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