My thighs are numb from all the clapping!
Yesterday afternoon, the $BTC Dual Currency Win just came out. If I had held on a bit longer, I could have sold at a good price in the evening. But I got impatient and bought back in at 8:30, and by 9 it started to rise~ fate is unpredictable.
Alright, let's look back and talk about what happened these past two days.
Two major events hit at the same time: one scary in the short term, the other providing long-term support.
First, the October rate hike. The probability has already broken 55%. In principle, this is short-term bearish, and funds will be suppressed. But note, this is just an expectation and hasn't officially happened yet. The market has priced in part of it in advance, so when it actually happens, the bearish impact might be fully absorbed. Therefore, the current market won't crash directly because of this; it will more likely fluctuate back and forth.
Next, look at the US crypto tax and Bitcoin reserve bills. These are the real long-term variables worth watching.
Both bills have only passed committee so far; there are still congressional procedures ahead. But the signal is clear: after CLARITY was blocked, the US did not pause crypto legislation but shifted toward more detailed tax and reserve systems. The policy logic is moving from "allowing transactions" to "state ownership + clear taxation."
With rate hike expectations weighing down on one side and the bills providing long-term support on the other, it's hard for the short term to see a one-sided big rise or fall; most likely, the market will continue to oscillate and consolidate.
Previously, after the rate hike was implemented, the market didn't crash; ETH even bounced back near 2630, indicating the market is less fearful of bearish news than before.
In the short term, don't chase rallies or panic sell, and don't heavily bet on direction. Hold your spot positions; the long-term logic is moving in a positive direction.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
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