Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise, BTC Surges to $87,000: The Real Change Is the October Rate Hike Odds!
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings fell to 3.0% year-over-year.
Coupled with downward revisions to employment data from the previous two months, the cooling U.S. labor market is not just a one-month anomaly but a sustained trend.
Weaker employment suggests that continued rate hikes could amplify economic downside risks; the slowdown in wage growth also eases pressure on service inflation from rebounding.
However, core inflation remains around 3%, and oil prices and geopolitical risks have not disappeared, so it is still too early to discuss rate cuts.
That said, weak data is not purely positive.
If upcoming economic data continues to deteriorate, the market will no longer trade on the expectation of no rate hikes but on recession. If U.S. stocks open high but close lower, BTC could also see profit-taking.
The $87,400–$88,000 range is a key resistance level; a strong volume close above this opens the way to $90,000–$93,000.
$85,500 is the short-term strength/weakness line; holding above it indicates a valid breakout.
Breaking below $83,000–$84,000 signals weakening upward momentum; losing $82,000 means this round of nonfarm-driven gains is basically fully realized.
Weak employment significantly reduces the risk of further rate hikes in October, increasing BTC’s chances of testing $90,000 this month. However, how much it rises after the data release is less important than whether it can hold $85,500 after the U.S. market opens and turn $88,000 into support. That will determine whether this is a trend start or just profit-taking.
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