Everyone is watching the drama unfold, but the most interested question is definitely when to bottom-fish Nvidia.
This mainly depends on whether he will step down and the handover situation afterward. The short-term decline has already gone quite far, basically pricing in emotional panic and the imminent loss of Nvidia's soul founder.
According to Polymarket information, the probability of Jensen Huang stepping down is over 80%.
We can divide the future into four scenarios:
1. Jensen Huang is retained and does not step down, then the stock price will likely rebound sharply above 170.
2. An orderly handover: an acting leader and a significant name are announced simultaneously. The price range would be $145–160, with a chance of closing higher that day.
3. Only an acting leader is appointed, with a statement "initiating selection": $135–150.
4. Chaos: no decent acting leader or additional investigations follow. $120–135.
From the perspective of chip support, the next major daily support is near 100, which is too far away and would require a long time plus many black swan events to reach. The next weekly support is around 111–118, which matches the worst-case scenario if Huang steps down and can be considered a safety zone. So, friends eager to bottom-fish now can set their liquidation price below 110–120 and then count their money when the situation improves. Those not in a hurry can watch and wait for better opportunities. $NVDA#美媒曝英伟达拟罢免黄仁勋，股价盘后跌超9%
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