夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
全市场分析，不受局限 提供真正有价值的投资建议
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I have always been committed to sharing trading knowledge to help everyone avoid high-risk trades and investment scams. All guidance is completely free, with no charges. I do not belong to any company, organization, or platform, have no partners, no groups, and will never ask anyone to transfer money to me.
I always advise everyone to keep their money in their own accounts, learn independently, and make their own judgments. When the market declines, you can focus on coins with real projects and long-term value, buy rationally, and sell at the right time after reaching profit targets.
Sharing knowledge is done out of goodwill, with no expectation of return. Protecting your own funds is more important than anything else.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
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What supplements do super individuals need?
(Deep research version)
My combination is:
Anti-aging + High energy + Improve sleep quality + Build lean muscle strength
Basic foundation:
High-dose multivitamins
Fish oil Omega-3
D3 + K2
Nervous system & sleep:
Magnesium glycine
Anti-aging and antioxidant:
GlyNAC (NAC + Glycine) + Ergothioneine
Mitochondria & energy:
Coenzyme Q10 + PQQ
Brain & physical performance:
Creatine 5g
Core logic: supplement the foundation → antioxidant → repair mitochondria → enhance long-term energy and performance.
Also suitable for crypto community
$BTC $ZEC $QNT
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In the era of information transparency, is it really harder for financial crises to occur?
The reason past financial crises were easily brewed was largely due to slow information dissemination. Underdeveloped communication and low market transparency meant that information was held by only a few for a long time. Many risks could accumulate within the system for years, while most market participants remained unaware. By the time the problems truly surfaced, the market often had no time to react, panic spread rapidly, and it eventually evolved into a systemic crisis. Today's environment is completely different. Smartphones, the internet, and real-time information allow information to spread almost instantly worldwide. Macro data, policy changes, and market price fluctuations can all be captured by the market within seconds. Many localized risks are reacted to by the market before they have a chance to expand. From this perspective, the traditional type of financial crisis that relies on delayed information accumulation has indeed become harder to form. But things are not that simple. More information does not equal more understanding. When information spreads extremely fast, the market is also more easily surrounded by noise. True and false news mix, emotions spread faster, and market reactions are often amplified. Short-term panic, concentrated sell-offs, and instant liquidity contractions occur more frequently in modern markets. The early stage of the 2020 pandemic is a typical example. The U.S. stock market triggered four circuit breakers within just one month. It was not that the economic fundamentals suddenly collapsed within weeks, but that the market quickly formed a consensus panic under intensive information shocks. When everyone reacts in the same way simultaneously, market volatility is extremely amplified. A deeper problem actually comes from the increasing complexity of the financial system itself. The 2008 financial cri
One of Germany's largest banks has officially started to establish its crypto asset custody business.
On November 11, Deutsche Bank announced the launch of its digital asset custody service.
What is noteworthy about this is that traditional financial institutions are gradually building their own crypto infrastructure.
In the past, institutional investors who wanted to hold digital assets like $BTC and $ETH often had to rely on specialized crypto custodians.
Now, large commercial banks are also entering this market.
For banks, digital asset custody can further extend to asset management, tokenized securities, and future on-chain financial services.
Especially as more traditional financial institutions study RWA and stablecoins, whoever controls the asset custody and settlement gateway has the opportunity to secure long-term client relationships.
However, the launch of custody services by banks does not mean they will immediately buy large amounts of cryptocurrencies.
I am more interested in how many institutional clients will actually use these services in the future, and whether banks will continue to expand into tokenized assets and on-chain settlement.
$ZEC
The development of the AI industry is enabling some decommissioned nuclear power plants to regain commercial value.
On November 11, German energy giant E.ON announced that it is evaluating the possibility of converting parts of decommissioned nuclear power plant sites into data centers.
The most interesting aspect of this is that although these nuclear power plants have stopped generating electricity, the original land, grid connections, and some infrastructure still hold value.
In the past, when tech companies built data centers, the most important factors were purchasing GPUs, servers, and network equipment.
Now, power supply, grid connection speed, and land resources are also becoming important factors affecting project progress.
Especially as the power consumption of large AI data centers continues to rise, industrial facilities with existing grid connections may be more attractive than finding new land and applying for grid access.
However, E.ON is still in the evaluation stage and has not announced any formal conversion projects.
If more energy companies start using old industrial facilities to build data centers in the future, competition for AI infrastructure may further extend to land and grid resources.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see $1.6 billion in outflows, while stock ETFs experience a capital bottom-fishing
Despite the market decline, the capital flows for stocks and Bitcoin ETFs are completely different.
According to data released on November 11, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $95 million again on November 10.
Since the beginning of November, the cumulative net outflow has reached about $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, after a significant adjustment in the US stock market, stock ETFs have attracted a large amount of capital inflow.
This data indicates that some institutional funds are willing to absorb the stock market decline but are not as actively buying $BTC.
More notably, on-chain data shows that short-term holders transferred over 47,000 BTC to exchanges on November 10, and these bitcoins were moved at prices below their holding costs.
This means some investors who recently bought are transferring chips at a loss.
If BTC continues to fluctuate around $73,000, I will prioritize observing whether ETF funds can turn positive again.
As long as institutional funds continue to flow out, short-term rebounds should be approached with caution
$ETH $ZEC
Alibaba may be about to incubate another giant tech company.
On November 11, Alibaba's chip business Pingtouge (T-Head) received preliminary confirmation from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for its spin-off listing plan.
According to Nomura Securities' estimates, the potential valuation of this business could reach $85 billion. Founded in 2018, Pingtouge is mainly responsible for Alibaba's chip research and development.
With the growing demand for AI computing power, Alibaba aims to establish a complete technology system from underlying chips and cloud computing infrastructure to AI models.
The company previously announced it will invest over $53 billion in AI-related businesses over the next three years. If Pingtouge successfully goes public independently, Alibaba can not only gain a new financing channel but also allow the capital market to evaluate the value of its chip business separately.
However, the listing still requires regulatory approval, and the $85 billion valuation is only an institutional estimate, not the final IPO pricing.
For Alibaba, this could be an important attempt to unlock the value of its tech assets again.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
TSMC splashes $1 billion! Simultaneously investing in OpenAI and Anthropic
TSMC $TSM has started directly investing in AI model companies. On November 10, TSMC's board approved two investment plans:
Up to $500 million investment in OpenAI, and up to $500 million investment in Anthropic, totaling up to $1 billion.
What’s noteworthy is that TSMC, originally at the core manufacturing segment of the AI industry chain, is now preparing to directly hold equity in AI model companies.
In the past, whether it was Nvidia, AMD, or other AI chips,
as enterprises expanded orders, TSMC could benefit from the demand for advanced process technology. Now it also aims to share in the growth profits of AI application companies.
Meanwhile, TSMC expects revenue growth of about 44% in 2026, with advanced process capacity still in short supply.
However, investing in AI model companies also means taking on new valuation risks, especially as Anthropic is seeking a listing valuation as high as $1.4 trillion.
TSMC is evolving from being a core supplier in the AI industry to becoming a capital investor in AI companies.
$BTC $SNDK
AI tech stocks have started a collective rebound.
On November 11, the US tech sector saw a significant rebound.
CoreWeave ($CRWV) surged about 25%, Nvidia ($NVDA) rose about 3.8%, and Micron ($MU) at one point increased by over 13%.
CoreWeave's recently released earnings report may be a key factor driving the shift in market sentiment.
The company’s third-quarter loss was lower than market expectations, and it raised its full-year revenue forecast.
More notably, CoreWeave expects to receive approximately $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.
Previously, the market’s biggest concern was that AI companies kept borrowing to build data centers but failed to generate sufficient cash flow.
Now, at least some companies are starting to present actual orders and financial arrangements, proving that customer demand still exists.
However, one earnings report is not enough to eliminate the valuation risks across the entire AI industry.
If other AI infrastructure companies can also deliver similar data going forward, this tech stock rebound could continue to expand.
SanDisk makes a strong rebound! I believe the storage chip market is not over yet.
On November 11, SanDisk (NASDAQ: $SNDK) surged 16.4%, with its stock price climbing back above $1,000, closing at $1,001.02.
Previously, SanDisk plummeted 22.26% in a single day on November 5, hitting a low of $803.97.
In just a few trading days, the stock price has rebounded over 24% from the low point.
This rally is not just SanDisk alone; the entire storage sector saw significant buying, with Micron rising about 7% and Western Digital up about 5%.
One reason driving the capital inflow is CoreWeave's latest earnings report, which eased market concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.
In recent weeks, the market has been worried that AI capital expenditure has peaked, but as long as data centers continue to expand, demand for NAND flash, DRAM, and enterprise storage will not suddenly disappear.
I currently tend to view this downturn as a severe valuation adjustment experienced by the storage sector.
If $SNDK can continue to hold above $1,000, it has the opportunity to challenge $1,100 again next.
Bitcoin drops to $73,000, is the final drop not over yet?
BTC previously rebounded to $81,000, but has now fallen back to around $73,000, a nearly 10% pullback in a short time.
What’s more notable is that the US Bitcoin spot ETF has recently seen continuous net outflows, indicating the market buying pressure remains weak.
I previously thought the last drop might occur near $73,500, but now the price has fallen further, showing the market has not yet completed bottoming.
Currently, $73,000 can no longer be considered a reliable support.
If it fails to quickly recover to $75,000, I will start to be cautious about BTC further testing $70,000 or even $68,000.
However, after continuous declines, the market could also see a sharp rebound at any time.
If BTC can climb back above $76,000, there will be a short-term chance to challenge $78,000–$80,000 again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The latest US CPI has been released, and the result once again exceeded market expectations.
The October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.3%.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining the same increase for three consecutive months.
Among them, food prices rose 0.5%, housing costs rose 0.3%, and energy prices rose 0.7%.
The most troublesome aspect of this data is that US inflation has yet to show a clear cooling.
The market has basically priced in another rate hike in December and has even started discussing the possibility of a 50 basis point hike.
However, as of the morning of November 10, the market's probability pricing for a 50 basis point hike remains only about 15%.
If employment data continues to be strong, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to ease monetary policy.
This is obviously not good news for US tech stocks, which are already overvalued, and for the liquidity-dependent crypto market. $QQQ $NVDA $XAU
The U.S. stock market just showed a strong rebound yesterday, but started to decline again today.
On November 10, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, with the Nasdaq falling about 1.25% intraday and the S&P 500 down about 0.84%.
NVIDIA once plunged more than 5%, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.99%.
Over the past two years, AI tech stocks' valuations have been based on sustained capital expenditure growth and future profit expectations.
But if U.S. interest rates remain high, investors will need to recalculate the value of these companies' future cash flows.
Especially NVIDIA faces controversies within the company itself, with its stock price affected by both market conditions and individual events.
I currently do not believe that a one- or two-day rebound in tech stocks means this round of correction is over.
If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to break through 5%, high-valuation tech stocks may still face selling pressure. $QQQ $BTC $NVDA
