陈小晖
陈小晖
夫唯不争，一位略懂投机之道的混子。 只用2倍杠杆。 且看能小资金3年能不能走出来。
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This month, I really have to thank $SNDK and $SKHYNIX
and also Elon Musk's big rocket $SPCX for the opportunities, which allowed the account to have a relatively good increase.
Victory and odds were controlled, and I also appreciate the company of brothers along the way. Let's see how far we can go this year, proving that a small capital of 1500u can also compound and grow.
I hope the market continues to provide opportunities next month, aiming to reach 12,000u next month #Elon Musk responds to Morgan Stanley, $3.5 trillion revenue may come seven years early
-2.46%
Snapshot at Aug 29, 2026, 16:13
Just reviewed Micron's earnings report and organized some key points. $MU
Revenue: The consumer segment's share is almost gone. Now it's mainly data centers.
The earnings report's long-term orders lock in about a quarter of 30 years' revenue,
with a margin of 32 billion and receivables of 150 billion. About 17% is deposits.
The current production expansion bottleneck is the lack of clean rooms, but the clean room construction cycle is about 2-3 years, corresponding to storage starting from 2024. It's roughly okay now. The equipment for clean rooms is not very scarce; the shortage is in manpower and time. Physically, the limit is about this time.
Also, the data center cycle is 2-3 years, and the current limitation for data centers is the queue for grid connection. This is a physical limit that can't be solved by stories, so although computing power is still lacking, the essence is the inability to get data center grid connection approvals.
If the factory building is ready but can't be used, buying chips first doesn't benefit oneself, so locking orders plus queuing for data center grid connection is a win-win.
Therefore, the key is to watch the speed of data center grid connection. This is the hardest and requires a 3-5 year queue, during which storage prices can drop before buying.
So, in terms of the cycle, it's time to start shorting, although there can still be short-term rebounds, the space is insufficient.
But Micron is at least US-based, so still short Hynix.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
-1.57%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 16:07
After the $MU earnings report came out, it neither rose nor fell. Although it is not far from the previous high, yesterday the Nasdaq plunged at the close, yet funds flowed into the semiconductor sector. The more important thing is how it performs after today's opening.
PCE met expectations, reducing the probability of inflation-driven rate hikes, combined with falling oil prices, but the Nasdaq did not show much reaction, and US Treasury yields remained unchanged.
I still feel that the rebound cycle is nearing its final stage. The rebound has been oscillating around this level, with little arbitrage space, so only short-term trades are possible, which I am a bit reluctant to do.
Waiting for a higher probability opportunity to open short positions. If the Nasdaq does not break the previous high and Micron remains stagnant, then it's time to increase short positions.
Open a small short position on Hynix first to see the direction of this wave. Set a 10-point stop loss if it follows a trend. Waiting for specific nodes, as the current movement is indeed too chaotic.
As long as TEM's trend is not broken, I will hold on a bit longer.
Going forward, I will no longer do short-term arbitrage, only trend trading.
The direction will emerge.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
-1.81%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 12:48
Yushu closed his position, too bad he didn't send a holiday red envelope 😂. Next, I'll focus more on short positions. For the $TEM long positions I hold that aren't weakening, I'll continue to keep them.
I'll also look for suitable entry points to open short positions on $SKHYNIX and crude oil.
Tonight probably won't be calm. Let's watch the show; if there are upper and lower wicks, it’s still okay to open a short position.
Starting from 8:30, there will be wicks, and at midnight, another earnings report will cause some volatility. Let's see if it will consolidate or prepare to retest the previous high.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
-1.98%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 14:45
Short crude oil and go long on American aircraft manufacturers, it seems worth a closer look.
Although the talks still haven't reached an agreement this time, the period of high crude oil prices has reached a critical point. If high oil prices combine with high inflation, very bad things could happen. The reason oil prices haven't continued to soar is that countries have been using their own oil reserves, and occasionally a few ships pass through.
The trend of oil is also starting to weaken a bit.
Recently, there has been more talk about crypto and stocks. Different assets still need to be handled according to your own understanding and whether they fit your own trading logic.
$CL
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限
The market is indeed a bit sluggish right now. $MU's earnings come out at midnight, plus the uncertainty of the PCE and GDP at 8:30 PM tonight. Basically, those avoiding uncertainty have mostly exited.
This afternoon, I'll look to close the $UNITREE position. Still haven't sent the red envelope, big A, whether you send it or not, I have to close the position 😂. The volume hit a low, but I didn't see much support.
For $TEM, the AI pharmaceutical stock, I'll check the situation when the market opens tonight. Yesterday it surged then dropped about 10 points. Let's see if the pullback to the platform range can hold; if it holds and the trend isn't broken, it can still be held.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
-1.15%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 11:33
$LINK's on-chain finance and derivatives expansion is indeed a trend. They just released ccpi2.0, the cross-chain infrastructure, and the market is quite receptive to it right now. It also coincides with this wave of collective rebound in the crypto space. Its resilience is definitely stronger than Bitcoin and Ethereum, although it can't surpass $ZEC, but it's enough. If the short-term new highs can continue, then just keep holding it. Treat this spot asset as a dollar-cost averaging investment; consider selling some only if it reaches the final stage.
Currently, I only hold Ethereum and this spot asset. I'll look for opportunities as they come. Anyway, I prefer infrastructure coins, so it's a bet that might pay off. Plus, you can earn some interest on the side.
#ChainlinkCCIP2.0正式上线
Crypto Circle: The mid-to-long-term logic for $BTC still belongs to the oversold rebound cycle, with short-term opportunities remaining. The major mid-to-long-term adjustment cycle is insufficient, so the final phase of the adjustment after the oversold rebound is not yet complete. Unless there is a significant event, continuous rate hikes and depletion of reserve oil, basically, the oversold rebound needs to finish before entering a formal adjustment phase to complete the final correction.
U.S. Stocks: The Nasdaq has basically formed a double top, while the other two indices have already adjusted in advance. The market is rotating rather than focusing on the AI sector. Rotation is happening among pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and energy sectors, indicating that capital is starting to switch.
Example: Leading AI hardware stocks like $NVDA and $SNDK have also failed to break new highs.
So now capital is diverting to software, small-cap stocks, and other themes, indicating a retreat.
The odds for mid-to-long-term bullish positions are no longer high. The short-term rebound cycle has formed an M-top, which dispels the idea of a rebound continuation and suggests that the rebound is suitable for establishing short positions.
Moving on to gold and crude oil:
From a macro perspective, gold is a non-yielding asset. Due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of rate hikes, it faces pressure, but this is short-term pressure. The dollar system now needs to re-anchor its backing assets, which are commodities and precious metals—gold, minerals, and energy.
Therefore, the true major cycle for commodities has not yet arrived. The short-term adjustment will continue until the U.S. fully controls oil pricing power, which will roughly mark the start.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
Recently, there should be fewer long positions opened, or if none are opened, just finish the directions that haven't weakened. The recovery of $SNDK still hasn't returned to the upper side, and the Nasdaq's recovery is also insufficient. The market feeling is a bit unfavorable. Yesterday's judgment that there was no quick recovery means it might be forming an M top.
Open a position to play the oversold rebound of the big A market, no need to look at individual stocks, just those three. Let's see if the holiday red envelopes are given; if not given tomorrow, then exit.
Try to open as few positions as possible, and if Hynix $SKHYNIX goes up, continue to open short positions.
Plus, since the non-farm payroll data is coming out tomorrow, with no good confidence, just hold small positions in the directions that haven't weakened.
#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData
-0.74%
Snapshot at Sep 29, 2026, 10:46
$SNDK SanDisk long position hit stop loss and closed. This small cycle was indeed not well executed. We'll wait for new signals to appear and still maintain the original view that it is within a rebound range, approaching the secondary support level.
For now, just observe. Small fluctuations have no major impact and can be ignored. When certainty emerges, we'll look for better opportunities.
Stop losses on long positions during a rebound cycle are kept relatively small, so hitting a stop loss is normal. If it's wrong, it's wrong. The next position will still be opened at this node unless there is a sudden negative news adjustment.
The $TEM long position will be kept for now; as long as it doesn't weaken, it will be left alone.
This month is almost over, wishing everyone a prosperous account next month.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
-7.66%
Snapshot at Sep 28, 2026, 22:44
Tonight, it depends on whether $SNDK can quickly recover. If it doesn't recover, admit defeat and exit. Plus, the Nasdaq is also preparing for a big gap down, so we need to see if it recovers. If the trial position was wrong, it was wrong—avoid expanding the position again. If it can still rebound, look for new entry points; the odds up and down are about the same.
As for short positions, there isn't much cost-effectiveness right now. Around 1620 is a strong support level during a rebound cycle, so it's not considered. Also, don't short SK Hynix or SanDisk.
Let's see how it performs tonight. If it rebounds and shifts from weak to strong, then you can add to your position. For those with more courage, you can try to play the weak-to-strong shift.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
-5.80%
Snapshot at Sep 28, 2026, 16:57