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Why couldn't Newton, 300 years ago, get out at the stock market peak? In 1720, Newton didn't get out either At the beginning of 1720, South Sea Company stock was over 100 pounds. In July, it was 1000 pounds. In December, 124 pounds. Within one year, it rose eightfold and then fell back to the starting point. There was a special participant in this bubble: Isaac Newton. He calculated the trajectories of celestial bodies and laid the foundation of classical mechanics. He invested 7,000 pounds to test the waters. After doubling in two months, he sold and secured his profits. After he sold, the stock price kept surging. Friends, neighbors, and relatives around him all got rich from this stock. He couldn't sit still. Near the top of the stock price, he reinvested more money. Then the bubble burst. Three hundred years have passed, the market has changed, but people haven't. The following two mistakes are still being made today. First mistake: The fundamentals are fine Before the bubble burst, the South Sea Company’s fundamentals were flawless. The government granted a charter, the story was dazzling, and the numbers on the books matched. When Newton added to his position at the top, the fundamentals he saw must have been good. If the reports were full of holes, he wouldn’t have entered. The problem is that stock prices and fundamentals are not synchronized. Guosen Securities did a study in July this year. Since 2009, in six high-growth industries—consumer electronics, communication equipment, semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, and energy metals—the absolute stock price peaks led the ROE peaks by 8 to 19 months, with a median of 12.6 months. Consumer electronics led by over 9 months, semiconductors by 8 months, photovoltaics by 19 months. By the time you see ROE still hitting new highs and the financial reports looking great, the stock price may have already peaked more than a year ago. The reason is simple. Stock prices trade on expectations. Reality waits for financial reports, but expectations have already played out. The sharpest money in the market buys on whether the future can be better. How good it is now, they already know. Once there’s no marginal improvement, even if absolute numbers are still hitting new highs, some will exit first. By the time this change is reflected in the financial reports, it’s already several quarters later. Saying "the fundamentals are fine" is an expensive self-comfort. Of course, the fundamentals are fine. But when they do have problems, it’s already too late. Second mistake: This time is different Newton didn’t leave during the high-level pullback. I guess his reasons were similar to those of people today. The version 300 years ago was like this: friends were making money, the market was hot, the king and parliament were endorsing it. Tulips went crazy too, how could this be the same? Today’s people have a new set of reasons. You can’t look at PB anymore, you have to look at PE; the valuation is actually quite cheap. This time is the AI super cycle, different from previous cycles. All financial reports beat expectations, no problem. Concentration is a bit high, leverage is a bit much, just deleverage and it will be fine. The boom won’t just last this year, it can last until 2030. The narrative has changed, but the structure hasn’t. The two most expensive phrases in investing are: "the fundamentals are fine" and "this time is different." The story changed from carriages to railways, from the internet to artificial intelligence. But human nature hasn’t been updated in 300 years. Summary 1. Everything is cyclical; the profit cycle is the most critical. When the profit cycle shifts from the first half to the second half, sectors rotate. The representative of the previous cycle is semiconductors; the mid-cycle representative is high-quality stocks. When to shift depends on three things: the second derivative of profits, the second derivative of price increases, and the breadth of profit revisions. 2. A stock’s momentum equals logic plus performance plus proactivity. Proactivity means leading gains and resisting declines. The order of turning points is reversed. Proactivity weakens first, then logic weakens, and the performance turning point comes last. By the time you see performance deteriorating, it’s already too late. 3. The most dangerous thing in investing is what you think you understand (but you only have faith, no research). The more you believe, the easier it is to lose money. Things you don’t understand won’t hurt you because you won’t take heavy positions.

Elon Musk did the math: the most expensive investment is time This statement can be calculated. He really did the math, and very thoroughly. Money lost can be earned back. Time cannot. What he calculated was how much longer this money could keep a company alive. Most people focus on returns, a few on risk, and hardly anyone seriously calculates costs. These three elements behave completely differently over time. 01 Cost Returns increase, costs also rise, only risk fades away Musk has a judgment that is quite counterintuitive. The more returns compound, the heavier the costs become, while risk actually diminishes. Cost is the easiest to overlook. The larger the account and the more frequent the turnover, the heavier the friction. Bid-ask spreads, trading commissions, fund fees, and the tax that’s easiest to forget. In the U.S. stock market, holding for more than a year before selling means a maximum 20% federal long-term capital gains tax. Less than a year, it’s taxed as ordinary income, up to 37%. The same amount of money can have a huge tax difference just because you held it a few months longer. So frequent traders may look diligent on paper but are actually working for the cost. Compound interest is slowly eaten away by these details. 02 Commitment Only those willing to spend time accompanying have the right to talk about compounding Willingness to stay committed is the only qualification to discuss compounding. Musk’s 2008 investment is the clearest example. In December that year, Tesla’s cash would last less than a week. The board approved a $40 million convertible note, but just before signing, an old investor suddenly withdrew. Musk himself put in another $12 million to cover the gap. At that time, he had only two choices: let Tesla die that winter or put more money in. By then, he had invested over $70 million in Tesla, and another $100 million in SpaceX. The cash he could move was basically depleted. The deal closed in the last few hours of Christmas Eve. He later said that if it had been one day later, salaries couldn’t have been paid. SpaceX’s first three launches all failed; the fourth succeeded. By December 23, NASA’s $1.6 billion contract was secured, and both companies had just stepped back from the edge. At that time, almost no one on Wall Street was optimistic about Tesla. A car company with no profits, no production capacity, and no money in the bank—no one wanted to stick around. Car manufacturing is a capital-intensive business. Without pouring money into production lines and supply chains, it’s impossible to tell if the product can succeed. On June 29, 2010, Tesla went public on NASDAQ at $17 per share. By November 10, it closed at $379.78. Accounting for stock splits in 2020 and 2022, $1,000 invested then is worth about $335,000 today. Time doesn’t speak for anyone; it only separates those who dare to bet big from those who don’t. 03 Honesty The premise of long-term holding is rational judgment and risk awareness Holding a company long-term depends on whether your judgment can withstand bad news. Faith alone won’t last that long. Musk stumbled on this point. On August 7, 2018, he tweeted that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share and that funding was secured. The stock rose over 6% that day. The SEC later charged that he hadn’t discussed specific terms with any potential funders. The SEC sued him for securities fraud. The settlement was a $20 million fine each for him and Tesla, he stepped down as chairman for three years, and had to get legal approval before tweeting. This tweet became a negative case study in U.S. stock market textbooks. The market priced an unfounded statement at $40 million plus a title. Courage and honesty may sound intangible, but they are the most valuable. Courage is holding on when others laugh at you. Honesty is whether what you hold is real. Finally. Standing with time relies on self-discipline. Musk himself didn’t hold forever. From the end of 2021 to 2022, he sold about $39.4 billion worth of Tesla stock in several rounds, much of it to fund the Twitter acquisition. So don’t treat “never sell” as a creed. The only real measure is this: do you sell because the company changed, or because you need money? The former is judgment. The latter is compulsion. If you can’t think of any company worth holding for ten years, it’s probably just a chip, not an asset. Cash flow doesn’t compete to be first; it competes to be continuous. May you also find that company willing to stay with you for a long time, letting time work for you.

Effective Paths for Ordinary People to Achieve Financial Freedom (This article is priceless, recommended to save) Financial freedom doesn't come from luck; it comes from taking the right actions and accumulating over time. If ordinary people want to achieve financial freedom, they might first try to do these three things. 01 Control Spending, Keep Accumulating What is the first step for ordinary people to achieve financial freedom? It's not about chasing quick profits. It's about holding onto your money. Many people have decent incomes, but as soon as they get paid, their money is gone in just a few days. Because they want too many things, they buy a bunch of stuff that isn't very useful—pure waste. Controlling spending isn't about being stingy; it's about distinguishing between consumption and investment. Things that bring short-term pleasure but quickly lose value count as consumption. Things that improve your skills, health, relationships, or generate cash flow count as investments. From now on, when you get paid each month, first hold back the impulse to shop and compare, and save a portion of your salary. Every penny you save could be the principal for your future wealth. Principal is the core of the wealth snowball; without principal, no matter how high the return rate, freedom is hard to talk about. Controlling spending isn't pressure; it just means focusing your investments on truly important goals. There is no myth of getting rich overnight in this world, only day-by-day accumulation. Make control a habit, and the wealth accumulated after a few years might allow you to shift from working for money to having money work for you. This is the foundation of financial freedom. 02 Where Attention Goes, Achievement Follows Everyone knows how precious time is, but attention is an even scarcer resource than time. Time is fair to everyone, but the quality of attention determines output. Whether you spend your daily time scrolling short videos or learning skills, reading financial reports, exercising, in a few years, you will have two completely different lives. Wealth doesn't appear out of thin air; it is the monetization of cognition and action. Where attention goes, ability grows, and opportunities appear. Ordinary people often have their attention stolen by algorithms, gossip, anxiety, and comparison, leaving no energy to focus deeply. So actively turn off those useless distractions, reduce low-quality socializing, and dedicate 1 to 2 hours daily to high-value, high-return activities like learning finance, writing, or sales. Focus, then persist relentlessly, and you can become an expert in a field. What you focus on is what you become. To achieve financial freedom, you must give your best energy to the most important things, focus and cultivate deeply every day, and persist long-term. That's how the gap widens. 03 Financial Freedom Is Learning to Do Compounding Compounding is the core engine of financial freedom. It's not just money making money; knowledge, skills, relationships, health, and influence all have their own compounding effects. Compounding requires three things: time, continuous input, and positive returns. The earlier you understand this, the easier it is to take action. Don't fear not seeing results in the short term; slow is fast. Many people fail because they don't see early results and give up. Doing compounding things requires long-term, correct persistence. No short-term feedback doesn't mean no long-term results. During this time, you also need to invest in yourself. Reading, exercising, writing, and reviewing daily will compound your abilities. The biggest enemies of compounding are giving up easily, rushing for results, and blind speculation. After all, no one is perfect; everyone makes mistakes. As long as you don't make big mistakes, let time do the fermentation. One hour of study today, persisted for ten years, will yield amazing results. So, choose things that can accumulate, patiently wait for the turning point, and you will eventually see the returns time gives you. Final Words If you've read this far, it means there's a voice inside you. You don't want to worry about money forever, you want more choices, and you want a more comfortable life for yourself and your family. Then start today, don't just stop at knowing—make a small change.

45 Essential Mindsets for Living in the Celestial Empire! In the Celestial Empire, being too honest makes you vulnerable; being too slick makes you annoying. Truly smart people aren’t scheming; they just know what’s going on. They know what to say and what not to say, who to get close to and who to keep at a distance. The following 45 points aren’t about scheming others, but about protecting yourself. 1. When asked about private matters, don’t tell everything. Say half and keep half, leaving room for yourself. 2. Don’t rush to spread gossip. What you spread might end up being said about you. 3. Don’t reveal your cards easily. The more you know, the less you expose, the safer you are. 4. Be specific when praising, vague when criticizing. Specific praise makes people comfortable; vague criticism avoids grudges. 5. When others brag, don’t pour cold water on them. Say a few agreeable words; it’s more likable than contradicting. 6. When lending money, be prepared not to get it back. Don’t lend money you can’t afford to lose. 7. Don’t badmouth others behind their backs. You never know who might hear it. 8. When asking for help, don’t just say "Are you free?" Be clear about what you need so they can decide. 9. When someone helps you, don’t just say thanks. Keep it in your heart and return the favor when possible. 10. If you can’t fulfill a promise, say so in advance. Don’t wait until the last moment to bail. 11. When dealing with difficult people, don’t confront head-on. Stay calm first, then find a way. 12. Don’t reason with someone when they’re emotional. Wait until they’re calm. 13. Don’t treat colleagues as friends. Work is cooperation; don’t bare your heart. 14. Don’t believe everything your boss says. Some things are just for show. 15. Don’t be the first to speak in meetings. Let others talk first, observe the atmosphere, then speak. 16. Don’t steal credit, but don’t let others steal yours either. Make sure to clarify what’s yours. 17. If someone blames you unfairly, clarify on the spot. No need to argue, just state facts. 18. When faced with sarcasm, pretend not to understand. Let them feel awkward. 19. If pressured to take a stance, say "Let me think." Don’t be pushed around. 20. Don’t drink too much at dinners. Only sober people can see who’s saying what clearly. 21. When someone treats you, don’t order the most expensive dish. Don’t order the cheapest either; choose moderate. 22. Don’t accept red envelopes immediately. Wait a bit to seem less eager. 23. When receiving gifts, say thank you regardless of liking it or not. 24. Don’t share too many private matters on social media. What you share might become gossip. 25. When others complain, don’t rush to give advice. Sometimes they just want to vent. 26. When strangers try to get close, be polite but keep your distance. 27. When asked about your salary, give a rough estimate. Don’t specify numbers. 28. Don’t send long voice messages in groups. No one likes them; it seems unprofessional. 29. Don’t reply with just "Hmm" or "Oh." Add a few words to show sincerity. 30. When someone is late, don’t blame immediately. Ask "Was the trip smooth?" first. 31. When refusing, don’t make excuses. Just say "Not convenient". 32. When someone apologizes, don’t hold grudges. Give them a way out; they’ll remember your kindness. 33. Don’t always be a pushover. Say no when needed, or others will think you’re easy to bully. 34. When praised, don’t rush to deny. Saying "Thank you" is more appropriate than "No, no." 35. Don’t tolerate unfairness. Express your stance gently but firmly. 36. Don’t make decisions when emotional. Handle things after calming down. 37. When someone complains about a third party, don’t join in cursing. Your words might spread. 38. Don’t give advice lightly. If it doesn’t work, they might blame you. 39. When asked for opinions, first clarify what they want. Don’t assume. 40. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Have backups for work, connections, and income. 41. When you meet a benefactor, don’t just take. Offer value proactively for lasting relationships. 42. Don’t envy those better than you. Learn from their strengths; it’s more useful than jealousy. 43. Don’t always aim to win. Sometimes yielding gains you more. 44. Think before you speak. Words once spoken can’t be taken back. 45. The most important mindset: Be kind to yourself. Don’t sacrifice yourself just to please others. Mindsets aren’t for harming others, but for self-defense. You don’t have to be sharp in everything, but you must have a clear sense. Be soft when you should be, hard when you must, don’t live a stifled life. Remember this: Kindness needs an edge, or others will just treat you like a soft target.