还是那个王先生
还是那个王先生
星球创作者📝 | 合约爆仓常客💥 | 多币种持有者💎 | 无情交易员❄️
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Mr. Wang Talks Crypto | 2026.10.01
Happy National Day to everyone 🙂 Today's highlights: BTC is hovering around 83.4k, SOL dropped 1.1%, and HYPE rose 2.9% against the trend. Lion Group liquidated SOL to buy HYPE; this portfolio adjustment is very obvious. $BTC Current BTC price is 83,407, down 0.81%, falling from 85,525. Lion Group sold off SOL and also sold some BTC, then increased holdings by 38,102 HYPE tokens; institutional funds are switching tracks. Resistance above is 83,840, support below is 83,457. Those wanting to get in should wait for a pullback near 83,000 before acting; if it breaks below 82,500, exit. 📉 RSI6 is only 16, the drop is a bit sharp, but the market hasn't collapsed; wait for stabilization before making a move. $SOL Current SOL price is 117.90, down 1.13%, falling from 122.77. USDai and sUSDai have expanded to Solana, with cumulative cross-chain transfers exceeding $2 billion; ecosystem funds are still flowing in. Resistance above is 118.48, support below is 117.47. Those wanting to get in should wait for a pullback near 116 before acting; if it breaks below 114, exit. 😴 There's some pressure from Lion Group liquidating, but ecosystem data is not bad; wait for the right position. $HYPE Current HYPE price is 90.22, up 2.94%, rising from 84.5 to 91.8. Lion Group specifically increased holdings by 38,102 HYPE tokens; institutions are putting real money in, this signal is strong. Resistance above is 91.
$CT surged 31% in one day, and I stubbornly opened a small short position betting on a pullback 👊
CT climbed from 0.3423 to 0.53 today, a single-day surge of 31.58%, with a 24-hour trading volume of 117 million. The new coin listing combined with TGE benefits caused funds to rush in wildly. RSI6 hit 74, the upper Bollinger band at 0.5348 was pierced, clearly indicating short-term overheating.
Seeing it stall at 0.53, I opened a small short position around 0.5195, betting on a pullback after the spike. But with this new coin plus TGE driving bullish sentiment strongly, the risk of topping against the trend is very high. My stop loss is just before the previous high at 0.53; if it breaks, I’ll admit defeat immediately.
This is purely a small position trial and error; I’ll exit once I get a pullback.
Brothers, would you dare to short such a new coin after a sharp rally? Can I wait for a pullback on this trade? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
+5.23%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 21:27
The US core PCE in August rose 3.0% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected, and the month-on-month increase of 0.2% was also below expectations. Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped directly from 50% to 38%, and the probability of holding steady returned to 62%. Goldman Sachs then pushed the next rate hike expectation from October to December.
However, the Federal Reserve has not yet backed down. Kashkari clearly stated that inflation is still too high and that another rate hike is needed within the year. The cooling of the PCE is a good thing, but 3% is still far from the 2% target, and no one dares to say the task is complete.
Now the focus is entirely on tonight's nonfarm payrolls. ADP gave a signal first: private sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, higher than expected and much stronger than the miserable 36,000 in August. ADP's chief economist directly called it "a strong report."
So the situation is very conflicted: inflation is cooling, employment is recovering. For the Federal Reserve, this is even more complicated—the inflation data gives a reason to pause, but the employment data shows the economy does not need rescue. If tonight's nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations again, a rate hike in December is basically locked in. $BTC has been hovering around 83,000 these past two days, waiting for this number. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
+0.37%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 21:21
$BTC pulled back right after opening a short, this trade feels a bit rough 👊
Today, Bitcoin dropped from 85650 to 83168, then pulled back to 83633, down 0.59% in 24 hours. MACD shows a bearish crossover downward, RSI6 is around 43, and the Bollinger middle band at 83843 is pressing down on the price, overall still a weak consolidation pattern.
I just opened a short near 83600, but it pulled back from 83168 again, currently holding an unrealized loss. 84300 is resistance above, 83168 is support below; until the range breaks, both longs and shorts feel uncomfortable. I'm betting it will fail to rebound and continue downward; if it breaks 84300, I'll accept the loss and stop out.
The news of the US judge dismissing the $BTC claim of 120,000 coins is bearish, but the market hasn't really reacted; short-term focus remains on technicals.
Brothers, do you dare to short at this level? Can this trade wait for a pullback? Let's discuss in the comments.🙈#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #波动雷达：币种异动观察
-0.13%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 18:11
$BTC That short position is still holding, entered at 81494, now the mark price is 84260, floating loss of 34 points, pushing up again, it's grinding people down. No new positions opened, just holding this one, waiting to see when it will turn back. Screenshot attached.
In this market, surviving is a victory. Did you hold on today? #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
-34.62%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 00:09
Today's Q in the comments: What are your single-trade risk and account drawdown limits?
My answer: I set single-trade risk at 2% of total capital, and account drawdown limit at 15%. This applies to all assets, whether mainstream like $BTC $ETH $OKB or altcoins!
The 2% figure isn't arbitrary. I used to risk 5% or even 10% per trade, thinking I could always make it back if I was right. But after losing three trades in a row, my account dropped by 30%. Even when I was right afterward, I couldn't focus on trading because I was obsessed with recovering losses, and my trading became distorted. Later, I lowered it to 2%, and even after five consecutive losses, I only lost 10%, which helped me maintain a stable mindset to keep trading.
The 15% account drawdown limit is a red line I set for myself. Once the total account drops 15% from its peak, no matter the reason, I force myself to stop trading for a week—no new trades, just reviewing past trades. This rule has saved me several times. Otherwise, with my personality, I'd rush to recover losses immediately, which only leads to bigger losses and eventually wiping out my principal.
To put it simply: You have to be able to afford the loss on a single trade for your account to survive. If you risk 10% on a single trade, a few losses in a row will knock you out, so forget about what comes next.
What are your single-trade and total drawdown limits? Let's chat in the comments.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
On September 28, the U.S. Senate Democrats released a report directly naming $USDT as the main payment channel for Iran's shadow banking. They investigated 846 sanctioned wallets related to Iran and its proxies, finding that 84% primarily or almost exclusively used USDT for transactions. The report estimates that Iran processes about $20 billion in cross-border transactions through these networks, and Tether's freezing actions "often take weeks," providing a window for fund transfers.
On the same day, Tether pushed back hard, stating that by 2026 they have already cooperated to freeze nearly $550 million of Iran-related $USDT, with a single freeze in April amounting to $344 million[citation:3][citation:9]. CEO Ardoino's exact words were "$USDT is not a safe haven for sanctioned entities, terrorist organizations, or criminal networks."
The interesting part of this issue is not the numbers but the timing. Tether is currently working on compliance with U.S. law enforcement agencies while being pursued by Congressional Democrats. The report also mentions Tether's connections with people from the Trump administration—Cantor Fitzgerald holds a 5% stake, and former White House digital asset chief Bo Hines now manages Tether's U.S. division.
$BTC has not experienced major volatility and is hovering around 83,000. But if the stablecoin issue continues to escalate, it will affect liquidity across the entire blockchain.
#Tether年内冻结近5.5亿美元伊朗相关USDT
-23.56%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 10:52
$BTC is stuck in a sideways grind, and my short position is still trapped, which is frustrating 👊
Today, Bitcoin has been oscillating between 82930 and 84545, currently priced at 83413, with a slight 24-hour increase of 0.43%. The MACD green bars are shortening, RSI6 is hovering around 37, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and volume has shrunk to 9.21M—classic sideways exhaustion action.
My short is still stuck. I originally bet it would keep dropping, but it neither falls nor rises, just grinding here. 82550 is the low of this wave, 84545 is the resistance above. Until the range breaks, both longs and shorts feel uncomfortable. I'll hold on and see; if volume breaks above 84000, I’ll have to consider cutting losses on this trade.
HANetf launched the world’s first euro-hedged Bitcoin fund, which is a positive news factor, so I don’t dare hold the short for too long.
Brothers, in this grinding market, do you stay out of the market waiting, or hold through the trap like me? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #波动雷达：币种异动观察
-23.61%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 09:50
Two key data points are coming out this week, PCE and non-farm payrolls, both crucial for the Fed's decision on whether to raise rates in October.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the August PCE will be released first. The market expects a year-over-year rate around 3.7%, unchanged from July, still far from the 2% target. If core PCE also stays above 3%, it won't move.
Friday's non-farm payrolls are even more critical. August's non-farm surprised with a cold 162,000, far exceeding the expected 55,000. If September's data remains strong, a rate hike in October is basically locked in — CME data shows a 73% probability of a hike in October.
Fed officials haven't been idle this week, each more hawkish than the last.
On Tuesday in Detroit, Governor Barr directly said, "Further policy adjustments are needed under the baseline scenario," with inflation risks rising and employment risks declining. Counting earlier statements from Musalem, Barkin, and Harker, the hawkish lineup already numbers five or six.
But the market's reaction to BTC is different from before. Last week, BTC surged to 87,000, with ETF net inflows of $23.9 billion in a single week, setting a record high for 2026.
Regarding $BTC, 85,000 is a short-term watershed. If both PCE and non-farm come in hot, a rate hike in October is nailed down, and $BTC may continue to face pressure after a rally and pullback near 87,000; but if one of the data points is soft, the market will reprice the "rate hike cycle nearing its end," and $BTC might actually see this as positive. Let's wait for tonight's PCE first. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
-26.19%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 07:44
Mr. Wang Talks Crypto | 2026.09.30
Today's Highlights: BTC rebounds back to 83.7k, ZEC recovers to 1,400, GRASS surges 13% in one day. Bitwise says sovereign wealth funds are selling gold to buy Bitcoin, this story is quite big. $GRASS GRASS current price 0.7734, up 13%, rising from 0.5699 to 0.8191. The old DePIN project is regaining popularity with the "AI agent internet access" narrative, doubling in two weeks, and funds are coming back. Resistance above at 0.7999, support below at 0.6808; those wanting to get in should wait for a pullback near 0.700 before moving, exit if it breaks below 0.650. 🔥 RSI6 reached 70, a bit hot in the short term, no matter how good the story is, wait for a correction. $BTC BTC current price 83,705, up 0.78%, rebounded from 82,726. Bitwise research director says sovereign wealth funds are selling gold to buy Bitcoin, a national-level asset allocation shift, this logic is solid. Resistance above at 83,751, support below at 83,380; those wanting to get in should wait for a pullback near 83,000 before moving, exit if it breaks below 82,500. 📈 RSI6 reached 61, neutral to strong, holding above 83k is an opportunity. $ZEC ZEC current price 1,419, up 2.04%, pulled back from 1,355 to 1,488. Zcash developers have introduced Tachyon code into Zakura Common, aiming to achieve per-second... performance upgrades are still underway, technical weaknesses are being addressed. Resistance above at 1,433, support below