天才交易员绿小勤
天才交易员绿小勤
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In the market reflections for Q4 2026, it was stated that the bottom of the crypto market most likely appeared at some point in July. She had written in early July that the bottom seemed near, at which time Bitcoin was $59,000, Ethereum was $1,600, and ZEC was $420. She said the question has shifted to whether the bull market is truly starting or is a false rally, and which projects will benefit most in the early bull market, assuming the market is in the early stage of a new crypto bull run. Levin stated that the growing consensus is that marginal funds are most likely to flow into protocols that serve as stores of value as money, and protocols that can generate income. She believes Bitcoin is the dominant asset for digital value storage currently, and other competing assets will be valued according to their market cap as a proportion of Bitcoin's market cap and its changes. Regarding income-generating protocols, she expects investors to examine whether the income comes from crypto-native activities (such as Pump) or traditional financial activities (such as Hyperliquid), whether income persists during market downturns, and profit margins; projects with exposure to real-world assets and stablecoin growth, expected to attract institutional users, and still led by founders after surviving bear markets, are more likely to achieve higher multiples #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH
-2,400.42%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 01:16
Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next 12 months, citing increased activity in the crypto market, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and a renewed inflow of ETF funds. Citigroup raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000 and Ethereum's target price from $2,240 to $3,028. In a report released Wednesday, Citigroup stated that inflows into the crypto market are expected to resume, but at a slower and more stable pace than before. As advisory firms and brokerages gradually increase Bitcoin allocations, inflows are expected to continue. Citigroup anticipates $5 billion in inflows into the crypto market over the next 12 months. The U.S. Senate last week failed to advance the CLARITY Act, which aimed to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets; its setback poses a certain blow to the entire crypto industry. After the U.S. Treasury recently repurchased long-term government bonds, the dollar weakened, reigniting upward momentum in the crypto market. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH
-2,460.95%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 17:45
"Big Brother Maji" Huang Licheng's address continues to reduce positions in BTC and ETH longs. Currently, the total unrealized profit in the account has narrowed to $73,000. The current positions are as follows:
• 25x long 35,224 ETH, average entry price $2,676.32, unrealized profit $590,000;
• 40x long 272 BTC, average entry price $83,788.3, unrealized loss $20,000;
• 10x long 209,000 HYPE, average entry price $90.19, unrealized loss $220,000;
• 10x long 1.225 billion PUMP, average entry price $0.005784, unrealized loss $277,000. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $HYPE
-2,463.47%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 17:34
During the past week of overall sideways movement in the crypto market, there has been a clear divergence in the holdings of whales across different assets. Data shows that Bitcoin whales reduced their holdings by about 30,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.52 billion, indicating that large holders are decreasing their Bitcoin exposure. In contrast, Ethereum whales increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH during the same period, valued at around $162 million. Regarding XRP, whale holdings remained basically stable, with total holdings staying near 3.9 billion XRP over the past week, showing no significant change. Analyst Ali noted that the current market exhibits a differentiated pattern of “Bitcoin whales reducing, Ethereum whales buying, and XRP whales holding,” and these changes are worth attention. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,476.39%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 17:14
Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $83,700, about 14% above the short-term holders' (STH) cost basis. Data shows that over the past week, the short-term holders' cost basis rose by 1.2%, increasing from $72,800 on September 24 to $73,700. Despite the rising cost basis, short-term holders still maintain about 13.7% unrealized profit, down from 15.4% a week ago. Meanwhile, the long-term holders' (LTH) cost basis for Bitcoin decreased from $48,900 to $48,800 over the past week, a drop of about 0.3%, marking one of the faster weekly declines this year. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about 72% above the long-term holders' cost basis, and this group still holds significant unrealized profit potential.
Axel Adler stated that changes in the long-term holders' cost basis are mainly influenced by changes in holding duration; some high-cost coins may transfer to the short-term holders group, thereby pushing up the short-term holders' cost basis. If the weekly change in the long-term holders' cost basis returns to zero, it may indicate that this metric is stabilizing. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,493.00%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 16:44
Because in the past, everyone was used to looking at top indicators, which are becoming less effective.
The top in 2017 was easy to recognize. Retail investors were extremely euphoric, FundingRate exploded, all on-chain indicators were overheated, and it was obvious the market had gone crazy. But for the later highs of 69,000 and 126,000, the market did not show that kind of widespread frenzy. The reason is that the marginal buyers have changed. Previously, at high levels, retail investors bought frantically while large holders started selling; now, when BTC is at a high, what really determines whether it can continue to rise is whether institutional funds keep flowing in. So our Institutional Liquidity Index mainly looks at three things: first, overall US dollar liquidity, including some fiscal data; second, MicroStrategy's mNAV; third, the net flow of BTC ETFs over the past 30 days. When BTC price keeps hitting new highs but institutional liquidity does not keep up, we mark it as Divergence. Mild cases are yellow, severe cases are red. Benson: We backtested several past cases where red Divergence coincided with the previous round's roughly 123,000 and the prior round's roughly 67,000. Yellow Divergence mostly corresponds to #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,505.46%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 15:26
Bitcoin's apparent demand is currently at -112,500 BTC, still clearly negative, reflecting continued weak spot demand. However, compared to -207,000 BTC on September 20, this indicator has improved. During this period, ETFs increased holdings by about 28,000 BTC, supporting the demand improvement. Darkfost believes that in this context, a slight pullback in Bitcoin cannot be ruled out as it seeks actual buying interest. He explains that apparent demand here is calculated as the difference between newly issued BTC and supply idle for over one year, used to estimate whether structural accumulation is sufficient to absorb the new supply generated by the Bitcoin network #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,421.34%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 13:56
After half a year, the address OxE1A..c1691 has built a position again with 5,000 ETH, valued at approximately $13.43 million. This address previously conducted a swing trade involving 6,899 ETH on March 3, ultimately losing $195,000 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH
-603.30%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 13:54
US August PCE inflation was lower than expected, briefly pushing BTC up to about $85,500, but the gains were mostly given back afterward, with Asian early trading falling back to around $83,700. Data shows that the US 10-year Treasury yield remains around 5.28%, and the 30-year yield is about 5.62%, near highs not seen since 2002. LVRG Research analyst Dan Khus stated that cooling inflation reduces the likelihood of the Fed raising rates again in October, making December a more likely window for the next policy adjustment. However, with the 10-year Treasury yield still close to 5.3%, inflation easing alone is not enough to support BTC staying consistently above $85,000 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,423.46%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 13:37
Due to the easing of inflation in the United States reducing the pressure to raise interest rates, Bitcoin may benefit from a more accommodative interest rate environment. Data shows that the overall US PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year in August; the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. The US August personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index was below market expectations, lowering market expectations for another Fed rate hike in October, which may support Bitcoin and other risk assets. Brendan Ma, Head of Investment Strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation, stated that a 0.2% month-over-month increase in core PCE is a positive signal for the Fed. If the September CPI data continues this trend, the pressure for the Fed to raise rates in October will further ease #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC
-2,469.58%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 12:03