Web山大王
Web山大王
长期关注 Crypto、AI、美股与宏观趋势。 相信 BTC 是数字黄金，也相信市场与万物皆有周期。坚持以价值发现为锚、以周期思维应对波动；OKB Holder，长期主义践行者。 专属社群已开启，点击右上角「群聊」即可加入。群内定期分享市场观点、交易策略与福利活动，期待与你一起交流、洞见周期。
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Bitcoin looks bearish based on many data releases, it clearly should have plunged hard, but stubbornly refuses to have a big waterfall drop? 🤔️ Is Bitcoin really that strong?? 🤔️
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen so high that ordinary people find it worthwhile to put money in banks or buy government bonds. The Fed just raised rates once in September and may raise again at the end of October.
The US spot ETF saw institutional inflows of over two billion dollars in one week in late September. Many listed companies treat Bitcoin as reserves, and big holders no longer easily sell off. So the price is holding up, institutions are indeed buying with real money, buying, buying.
$BTC has a lot of trapped positions between 84000 and 86000, and with the 10-year Treasury yield high, money feels safer buying government bonds.
$ETH has been hovering between 2680 and 2720. It closely follows Bitcoin’s pace, rising when the market is good and falling quickly when bad. There is support between 2620 and 2660, and 2500 is a key strong support below that.
$SOL is the most volatile! It’s bouncing around the 119 area. The ups and downs are quite fierce. 116 to 117 is a nearby support, 112 is strong support; if it can’t hold, a big waterfall drop may happen!
Now it’s Friday night with the US September nonfarm payroll data coming out. If employment is too strong, rate hike expectations will definitely rebound again!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
+9.43%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 15:36
The PCE data felt like a sudden cool breeze in summer.😄
Inflation was lower than expected, so the market sentiment somewhat relaxed, and the crypto prices jumped a bit accordingly.
But the fact is that bond yields are still hanging high, so now all eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls! If jobs are easy to find and hiring is strong, the higher-ups will be even less likely to cut interest rates.
$BTC spot ETFs are still surging, with institutions treating it as digital gold to hoard. If the 83100 level can hold, consolidation will continue; if it can't break above 84900, reaching previous highs will be even harder.
$ETH's basic trend is following $BTC without deteriorating, but ETFs have seen some outflows recently. The 2660 level is a key battleground between bulls and bears, with the overall trend still consolidating.
$SOL ETFs have had buyers for many consecutive weeks. Online discussions say it’s still speeding up block production, highly elastic, rising fast but also falling quickly. On nonfarm days, its volatility usually intensifies, so managing position size is the top priority.
Friday's data is very critical and may set the major direction going forward! Let's wait and see! Trading opportunities come to those who wait!
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
+0.01%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 06:26
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
$BTC
Looking out the window at the bustling, hurried crowd, everyone usually wonders if the prices of daily expenses have really gone up?!🤔️
Actually, the number to watch isn’t CPI but PCE! Tonight’s report is the last one before the October rate decision meeting. The market expects the core PCE to rise about 0.3% month-over-month and stay around 3.3% year-over-year.
If it’s lower, the rate hike hand might pull back first. If it’s higher, the rate hike blade will be swung again at the end of October. Bitcoin has been sideways these days, just waiting for this news.
By the way, take a look at ZEC—is it a wild coin?!
The U.S. already has the first privacy coin spot ETF, and Europe’s Valour has also launched an ETP. About 30% of coins on-chain have entered shielded pools, so fewer can be sold immediately outside.
Holders just voted to approve NU7, aiming to reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds by November 5, making private transfers faster. It has recently pulled back from highs somewhat and will still be influenced by macro news in the short term.
Before the data comes out, it’s all a gamble. A proper trader doesn’t gamble but waits for the data to land before making a move!
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
-4.63%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 15:36
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
When interest rates rise, people naturally put their money into places that earn income even while they sleep.
This is a result that anyone can figure out.
US Treasury yields keep pushing higher every day! The 10-year yield has reached around 5.2, and the 30-year yield has topped just above 5.5, levels not seen in nearly twenty years. 😱 Witnessing history again!
The expectation of another rate hike in October has risen to about 70%. Gold doesn’t generate interest, and with bond yields so attractive, funds naturally flow into the dollar and bonds.
Neither gold nor Bitcoin generate interest, so is it possible that big money might flee?! 🤔️
Bitcoin has also fallen along with gold! But gold is worse off this time, being directly crushed by the high interest rates.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain relatively stable. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted over two billion dollars in the past week, pulling this year’s net inflow from negative back into positive.
But if yields don’t fall, don’t expect a sudden surge to 100,000!
This week also brings PCE and nonfarm payroll data. Until the data lands, no one knows the outcome!
Expectations for PCE and rate hikes need to ease for Bitcoin to get some breathing room!
The current situation is very awkward 😅 with the direction unclear!
Learning to wait is actually part of a trading system!
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
+0.31%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 06:32
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Where does $BTC get the confidence to hold around 84,000?! 🤔️ Who's buying?
It used to be driven by retail sentiment, but now veteran asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity are pushing in daily with spot ETFs, and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is quietly increasing its position.
Could it be that inflation and employment data can't stop Bitcoin from charging toward $1 million for institutions?! 😊
This Wednesday at 8:30 PM, August PCE will be released first. The market roughly expects core year-over-year at 3.4% and month-over-month at 0.3%.
The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot hints at possibly one more hike this year. PCE is their most trusted inflation data; if the numbers are soft, the urgency for further hikes can ease.
Otherwise, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again. At the same time on Friday, September nonfarm payrolls will be released. The expectation is an increase of 80,000 to 90,000, less than August's 160,000, with unemployment possibly at 4.2%. If employment remains strong, it means the economy isn't falling apart, making rate cuts even harder.
Currently consolidating around 84,000, no one can guess the direction before the data drops. The safest approach is usually to build a small position and wait for the data to come out and the market trend to become clear before making a move to seek steady wins!
This PCE is still very important for the market; a mature trader won't go all in recklessly!
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
-0.19%
Snapshot at Sep 29, 2026, 15:50
$BTC dropped sharply yesterday! Many people felt like the sky was falling with this drop.😩
Actually, Bitcoin has never followed the heartbeat of ordinary people since its inception. It has always challenged your heart's endurance.😂
Institutions have been rushing into ETFs recently, with over two billion USD flowing in just last week.
Yesterday's drop looks more like a breather after a strong rally. Big money hasn't fled; it's just short-term rotation. There are still data releases ahead, so the sentiment will naturally shake a bit, which is within the normal fluctuation range.
Moreover, the price has already stopped falling and rebounded. I, the big boss, remain optimistic about the overall market trend ahead! The support at the 83,000 level is still very strong.
The market spends 70% of the time consolidating, so you need to be patient and wait for the best entry point. Your entry position determines your position's profit and loss ratio.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
+4.25%
Snapshot at Sep 29, 2026, 07:02
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Why did $BTC drop? 🤔️ Didn't ETF inflows hit new highs? Aren't there a bunch of positive news?! 😩
Actually, even grandma understands the principle: the more money printed, the less valuable the cash in hand becomes.
There are only 21 million bitcoins in the entire universe, about 20.09 million have been mined so far, and only around four hundred new ones come out daily.
The US spot ETF has locked up over one million coins, and many listed companies' treasuries are hoarding a large amount.
The next halving won't happen until 2028. The coins are getting scarcer, turning into increasingly hard-to-mint digital gold.
The price has dropped these days, hovering around $83,000. Actually, everyone is keenly watching the two key reports from the US.
At 8:30 PM Wednesday, the August PCE will be released, which is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge; the last core reading was 3.3%.
At the same time on Friday, the September nonfarm payrolls will be announced. The market expects around 100,000 new jobs, while last month was just over 160,000. The Fed just raised rates in mid-September, and the biggest fear is that prices won't come down and hiring remains very strong.
It would be best if both reports are soft 😊, so the dollar isn't too strong, and Bitcoin has the strength to push upward. 💪
Also, everyone is betting on another rate hike in October, so with so much data uncertainty, it's indeed hard for the price to break through! 😑
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
+1.01%
Snapshot at Sep 28, 2026, 15:37
At the vegetable market, when pork prices rise by two yuan, the aunties instinctively wonder if the price will keep rising tomorrow? 🤔️
$BTC just touched $85,000, and it's the same question! Breaking through is actually not that hard.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has bought over two billion dollars in the past week, with a single day peak close to one billion dollars!
Moreover, companies like Strategy still hold over 800,000 coins on their books, long-term holders control more than 70% of the circulating supply, and the amount available for sale on exchanges is getting thinner.
Looking at these numbers, it seems like the price could skyrocket! 😄
These Wall Street guys are now buying crypto through formal channels just like buying gold ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity placing orders for institutions every day.
After the AI hype, some funds have actually started flowing back into crypto.
So $85,000 is just an appetizer; the big moves are still ahead. The inflow of incremental funds from outside is the best proof since the bull market began!
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
-0.52%
Snapshot at Sep 28, 2026, 06:31
#BTC spot ETF net inflows have continued for 7 consecutive days, nearly $3 billion
Many people watch Bitcoin's rise or fall every day, feeling very anxious.🤔️
The market's ups and downs are like a heartbeat, sometimes fast, sometimes slow, all following the market's mood.😩
The question now is whether those wealthy people are still buying, buying, buying? As long as they keep buying, someone is supporting the bottom. If they stop buying, the market tends to weaken.
In the past few days, the US $BTC spot ETF has been buying for 7 consecutive days, with about $2.4 billion coming in this week, setting a new weekly high for this year, totaling nearly $3 billion over 7 days.
This indicates that Bitcoin is currently moving from exchanges into funds.
Institutions entering the market are not here to double their money today and run tomorrow; they treat it as a long-term asset allocation.
So when the price drops, someone is there to catch it at the bottom.
Even though institutions have bought so much, the price doesn't immediately skyrocket. They are not short-term speculators.
With US Treasury yields so high now, keeping money in banks also yields returns, so people are not in a rush to pour all their money into crypto.
Bitcoin remains the benchmark and barometer in the crypto world! Keeping a close eye on Bitcoin's movements and understanding who is buying and how much is just as important as analyzing the market itself!
#US Treasury long-term yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies
#Earnings Watcher: Micron earnings approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
+2.95%
Snapshot at Sep 27, 2026, 15:48
The city at 4 a.m. is as quiet as a ghost town, with only the K-line on my screen still moving.😩 My schedule is completely reversed because of the big coin 🙃️!
$BTC is now consolidating around 84,000, it surged to 87,000 a couple of days ago but quickly couldn't hold and dropped back down.
The market is thin during holidays, with less capital, so prices are more easily tossed around. If you hesitate, it crashes down; if you sell, it rushes back up. This is the most common behavior when liquidity is insufficient.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has been attracting money these days, with over two billion dollars flowing in within a week. Institutions really seem to be buying blindly.😄
The Fed just finished its meeting, and the market's panic over interest rates has started to ease. September usually sees a downward trend, but this year it has held up.
Maybe the ETF is just a probe for the market now?🤔️
Ultimately, we still need to watch PCE and interest rate expectations to make the direction clearer.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变
-1.35%
Snapshot at Sep 27, 2026, 06:36