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$HYPE fluctuated around $87 to $88 as of October 2, 2026, with a 24-hour high of approximately $91.9 and a low of about $86.7, down roughly 10% from the historical peak of $97.96 on September 23, consolidating at a relatively high level in the short term.
Resistance is between $89.8 and $92; if volume breaks through, the $95 to $98 range can be observed. Support lies between $85 and $86; if broken, a retest near $75 is possible. On October 3, a buyback plan supported by Circle funds will be launched, but the monthly unlocking of about 9.92 million tokens remains a structural pressure. With derivatives leverage relatively high, short-term risks of a pullback after a surge should be watched closely.Morning Trio: BTC holds, ETH accumulates, ZEC charges
The 30-year US Treasury yield climbs to 5.6%, hitting a record since 2002, macro pressure remains. Micron's earnings report is upcoming, AI storage is the focus; US-Iran negotiations restart, but room for concessions is limited. External variables intertwine, crypto still follows its own pace
$BTC at 83074, after surging to 86,000 yesterday and stabilizing at a high level, the 80,000 support conversion is complete. Currently watching 85,000 defense and 87,000 breakout: if stable, expect 88,000-90,000; if it falls below 85,000, no chasing longs, wait for 83,000 to catch. Rate cut expectations fluctuate, ETF flows swing, 85,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears
$ETH at 2660, stronger than before, 2700 is the first short-term defense line. 35% staked locked supply supports price, but ETF inflows are not continuous, pure locked supply rise has hidden risks. Hold 2700 to target 2800, breakout looks at 2850-2900; if it falls below, reduce positions first
$ZEC at 1392, still the strongest on the board, momentum to 1600 is strong. Key levels: 1550 defense, 1600 contest, 1650 breakout, if stable look at 1650-1700; if below 1550, don't chase hard, wait for 1500 to catch
Overall, BTC steady, ETH holding back sales, ZEC squeezing shorts, but the whole network's high leverage tolerance is very low, liquidity thin over the weekend. Operate with light spot positions, absolutely no 50x, set stop losses firmly and don't hold losing positions. The three musketeers each go their own way
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Entered long before the PCE release on 2026.9.30, and I believed my entry point was very good, with the PCE release direction consistent. I originally thought it would continue to rise the next day, so I went to sleep early. When I woke up, everything had returned to the starting point, and I could only break even and stop loss.
First, I failed to fully understand the market.
Second, I failed to track the market in time. $PEPE 4h multiple, RSI 57.8 upper edge; 1h RSI 57.3 upper edge, MACD downward
Range: 0.0000043556–0.0000043883 (1h pullback zone), currently above the zone, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above the zone, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when target reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 0.00000451
Invalidation: Break below 0.0000042946
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Not recommended to chase
For analysis only, not advice or trading instruction.$BTC is slightly strong on the 4h long, RSI 60.5 is slightly high; 1h RSI 63.2 is slightly high, MACD is upward
Range: 84041–84263 (1h pullback zone), currently above the range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above the range, wait for the pullback to be in place for confirmation.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends once the upside target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target: 85629
Invalidation: Break below 83460
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback$ETH 4h bullish, RSI 54 mid-level; 1h RSI 55.8 slightly high, MACD trending upward
Range: 2686–2695 (1h pullback zone), currently above the range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above the range, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends once target is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 2749
Invalidation: Break below 2673
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback
For analysis only, not advice or trade instruction.$BTC Good morning, second day of the holiday, the market continues to grind in this lukewarm state. Current price is 84,682, up 0.61% in 24 hours, climbing from the low of 83,168 to the high of 85,266, now consolidating around 84,600, with volatility much lower than yesterday.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the moving averages are starting to turn bullish again. MA5 (84,728), MA10 (84,687), and MA20 (84,278) are diverging upwards, with the price running above the moving average system. The Bollinger Bands middle line is at 84,278, upper band at 85,197, and the price is oscillating between the middle and upper bands, indicating a recovery structure. Since the rise from 82,902, the lows have been steadily rising, showing short-term improvement.
Glassnode data also confirms this, as the sell wall near 85,000 has been absorbed by buyers, reducing pressure at this level. However, note that volume continues to shrink; the holiday market has little real capital participation, mostly retail traders speculating.
Resistance above is at 85,266 in the short term, with a breakout targeting the previous high at 85,650. Support lies between 84,000 and 84,200 at the moving averages; breaking below that looks toward 83,300.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 On the surface, this adjustment did not result in large-scale liquidations, nor a clear reversal in the long-short direction. Compared to aggressive bets, it seems more like maintaining an overall bullish outlook while making minor adjustments to the position structure. However, high-leverage long positions still carry significant risks, and changes in holdings alone cannot be used to assume the market is about to rise. 📊 Latest position changes: 🟠 BTC: Slight reduction, continue to hold long positions - Positions: 546 → 543 - Leverage: 40x cross-margin long positions - Unrealized profit: about $125,600 - Estimated liquidation price: $74,610.29 Bitcoin has only decreased by 3 coins, indicating limited overall position changes. The liquidation price is at a lower level, meaning the theoretical liquidation buffer range has expanded based on current prices. However, 40x leverage remains very aggressive, and when facing rapid declines, risks should not be ignored. 🔵 ETH: Position remains stable - Position: about 34,000 - Leverage: 25x cross-margin long position - Unrealized profit: about $890,200 - Estimated liquidation price: $2,539.93 ETH remains the main source of profit in this position. No significant reductions indicate that the current position structure is temporarily stable, but this does not mean there will definitely be no adjustment in the future. 🟣 HYPE: Continued slight reduction - Position: about 225,000 - Unrealized loss: about $517,300 HYPE position has decreased, and unrealized losses have narrowed. However, the narrowing of losses is ultimately due to price differencesThe September non-farm payrolls at 20:30 tonight (Beijing time) is the biggest macro variable this week. The market expects an increase of 84,000 jobs, a sharp slowdown compared to 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. My personal understanding is: if the data significantly exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will be suppressed, the dollar will strengthen, and BTC will face short-term pressure; if the data is significantly below expectations, recession concerns might actually drive funds toward safe havens, which may not be good for BTC either. The most comfortable scenario might be moderately weak data that is "below expectations but not collapsing."
This morning, BTC fluctuated around $84,700. Overnight, it touched $85,000 at the highest point but was pushed back down; the sell orders at the $85,000 level are indeed heavy, but Glassnode data shows that yesterday's buy orders have almost digested this sell wall, and liquidity above is clearly thinning. If tonight's non-farm payrolls provide an excuse, the breakout could be faster than expected.
Personally, I do not plan to heavily bet on direction before the non-farm payrolls. Historically, BTC's average volatility on non-farm payroll days is only about 2.1%, similar to usual. But if tonight's data first causes a downward spike to around $82,500 and then quickly recovers, one could consider lightly going long with a stop loss below $82,000. Nighttime spikes on non-farm payroll days are normal; staying alive is more important than making money. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 This market situation really makes it impossible to just lie flat.
Brothers, the turning point window is getting closer.
Both mainstream and altcoins will most likely have to choose a direction.
The market signals are very straightforward: the rebound lacks strength, and support is thin.
The manipulative whales are pulling back and forth, trying to wash out the undecided chips.
Don’t be fooled by $USELESS’s sideways movement; it’s not stable, it’s exhausting the bulls’ last breath.
After a spike above 0.35, it has been steadily declining; today it lost 0.23 as well, with intraday losses continuing to widen.
EMA bearish alignment remains unchanged, the rebound can’t even reach the midline, volume is shrinking, and buying power seems to have evaporated.
The trading range is narrowing, and the narrower it gets, the more dangerous it becomes. Once the lower boundary is effectively broken, acceleration is likely.
Currently around 0.228, it’s a weak equilibrium. If the rebound lacks volume, bears still dominate; look first to around 0.2 below, and in extreme cases 0.18.
Don’t overcommit, don’t hold positions stubbornly; stop-loss is more important than wishful thinking. Confirm direction before taking action.
I’m not in a hurry; those still waiting for a big bullish candle are the ones anxious.
$BTC
$ETH
#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key point#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key 🔥 PCE softened, rate hikes retreated, non-farm payrolls to decide: BTC 84.6K, ETH 2,704 stuck at the threshold of "good news not fully priced in"
August core PCE YoY 3.0%, MoM 0.2%, both below expectations → market breathes a sigh of relief:
CME rate hike probability for 25bp dropped from a high to 38%, no change rose to 62%; Goldman Sachs pushed rate hike from October to December.
But Kashkari insists "inflation still too high, another hike needed this year," September ADP +90K also proves employment hasn't collapsed — macro is not turning dovish, it's "hawkish with softness."
BTC 84,600: rate hike expectations ease → 85,200 false breakout possible; but 10Y yield still above 5.2%, 85,800/87,374 can't be passed with just one bullish candle. Hot non-farm → pull back to 83,200; cold non-farm → surge to 85,800 short squeeze
ETH 2,704: end of a triangle fuse burning out. PCE good news didn't trigger a rally because institutions are waiting for "non-farm + yield" double confirmation. Hourly close above 2,700 = bullish, touching 2,738 with low volume = exit, break 2,640 = altcoin season postponed
Rhythm: PCE is the appetizer, non-farm is the main course, 10Y yield is the spatula — without putting down the spatula, no matter how good the dish is, it won't cook through
BTC is calm, ETH is testing the line.
It's not "the bull is back" now, it's the final tug-of-war of "rate hikes scaring halving, demand still strong." $BTC $MINIMAX MINIMAX current price is 32.17, have been following this company for a long time.
Personally experienced the product, the intuitive feeling is average experience, pricing is relatively high, product competitiveness is not as strong as imagined. It has fallen from a high of 64.48 and is currently fluctuating in a low range, with KDJ at a low level.
The domestic AI track is extremely competitive, with Zhipu, Tongyi, and DeepSeek iterating in turn, MINIMAX's product advantages are not outstanding. Although there are open-source moves, product experience and pricing are hard drawbacks.
In the short term, 28.28 is the Bollinger lower band support, with resistance at 34 and 40 above.
The mid-to-long term logic is questionable, product strength cannot keep up with industry competition, making it difficult to have a strong main upward trend.
Can keep tracking, but will not heavily invest. In the AI track, ultimately the product speaks.✅ Resistance Level (Upward) 1. First Resistance $85,600~$86,000: Most important in the short term, with significant unwinding and selling pressure concentrated here. Only by effectively holding the position will it continue to challenge the $88,800 upper band target 2. Second Resistance $88,800: Upper Bollinger Band, strong resistance ✅ Support Level (downward) 1. First Support $82,000–83,000: Short-term bullish lifeline and the average cost band for ETF institutions. Breaking below this will weaken bullish confidence 2. Second Support $80,000: Strong support, with a large amount of leveraged long positions concentrated here. Once it falls below it, it will trigger chain liquidations of long positions and accelerate the decline. 3. Third support at $71,000 (200-day moving average): An important mid-term bull and bear defense line 3. Bullish Drivers (Positive) 1. US spot ETF institutional funds: The core driver of this round of rally. As long as continuous net inflows are maintained, there will be buying pressure to support the bottom. Citibank raised its one-year target to $113,000, indicating continued institutional allocation. 2. Macro Rate Cut Expectations: The market continues to speculate on future Fed rate cuts, and falling US Treasury yields benefit alternative assets like Bitcoin. 3. Q4 Historical Seasonality (Uptober): Statistics show that Bitcoin was overall strong in the last quarter, with high average returns for Q4, indicating seasonal buying expectations. Long-term Chip Lockup: Whale addresses continue to hoard coins, with Bitcoin reserves on exchanges declining and flowingLong and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$CT short side unit holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.1124%, price -3.24%, open interest -11.8%. Decline accompanied by position reduction, new positions have not yet matched; holding short positions across settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.
$MEGA short side unit holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0225%, price 0%, open interest +7.78%. Total position expansion, price has not shown significant advancement, holding short across settlement still incurs holding costs corresponding to the current rate.Alert!
Before the non-farm payrolls even appear,
the crypto world is already acting out a "collective lying flat".
BTC 83962, down 0.20%.
The damage is minor, but the insult is strong.
US Treasury yields at 5.3% are draining liquidity,
PCE benefits vanished instantly.
ETF outflows of 148.7 million,
9 consecutive gains, now broken.
85,000 sell orders blocking the door,
77,200 feels as distant as a delivery.
ETH 2679, down 0.15%.
ADX 12, momentum exhausted.
2683 physically defending the price, accounting for 54%.
Losing 2650 triggers a pullback,
break 2738 and we’ll talk again.
ZEC 1375, down 4.72%.
Long positions liquidated at 1.81 million,
Bulls aren’t running, they’re being carried away.
SOL 117, down 1.76%.
Sell orders double the buy orders, congestion over 65%.
Breaking 116 triggers chained liquidations,
resistance above at 121.84.
Total market cap 2.86 trillion,
stuck for 8 days.
Non-farm payrolls open the mystery box,
the whole market awaits judgment.
Just venting, don’t get worked up.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 197,000! US initial jobless claims cool down again, is rate cut off the table?
US initial jobless claims dropped to 197,000, below expectations, staying near the 200,000 low for several consecutive weeks. The market hoped to see cooling employment and a dovish Fed, but the data proved otherwise: layoffs remain low, and the labor market is still tight.
Strong employment means economic resilience, but if wages and consumption hold up, inflation pressure may return, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cut schedule. For crypto, the core is liquidity expectations: rate cuts heating up would boost sentiment for BTC, ETH; delayed cuts combined with US debt pressure tighten funding and increase short-term volatility.
ETH perpetual contract around 2,706.67, +1.03%. Next, watch inflation data and Fed statements. When do you think the first rate cut will be delayed to?
$BTC $ETH $SOL Old Highs & Lows:
* All-Time High (ATH): $1,108.21
* Recent Local Low: $903.75
* 24h High / Low: $1,098.00 / $1,024.19
* Current Price: $1,092.45.
Short-Term Prediction:
The price rallied strong from $903.75 back toward its peak.
If buyers keep holding above the $1,034.17 support (20-day MA), xMU can retest $1,108.21 and push for new highs. Dropping under $1,034 risks a pullback toward $975.00. #SEC Chairman Atkins says will advance clarification of on-chain fundraising rules
SEC Chairman Atkins stated that while Congress legislation is not yet decided, the SEC will use existing authority to push the rules forward
The core is the Regulation Crypto Assets framework, opening fundraising channels for crypto projects
Two tiers of limits: up to $5 million startup exemption within 4 years, and up to $75 million fundraising exemption every 12 months, with corresponding disclosure requirements and safe harbor
Bitwise CIO believes that obstacles to CLARITY might actually force reforms to be implemented faster at the administrative level
So my judgment is this is not a green light, but an administrative power supplement
The threshold changes from compliance to suitability for disclosure
$OKB $BTC #SEC #OnChainFinanceAt 9 AM on October 2nd, the OKX market page displayed an interesting set of numbers: total market cap $2.90 trillion (+1.00%), 24h volume $96.824 billion (-4.06%), BTC market cap dominance 58.5%. But BTC ETF flows showed: daily net outflow of $9.8 million, net outflow of $196 million over the past 30 days.
Price is rising, money is withdrawing. This divergence is exactly what deserves the most attention right now.
First, looking at the macro picture, this round is the real pricing anchor.
Last night, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly touched 5.344% intraday, the highest since 2002, and the 30-year broke 5.65%. Oil prices: WTI at 92.87, Brent at 102.31, rising 2.7% and 4.37% in a single day. The US Dollar Index at 102.03, a one-and-a-half-year high.
More importantly: two Federal Reserve vice chairs dovishly spoke on the same day. Jefferson said "more time may be needed," Bowman said "no urgent need for further action." Market pricing for an October rate hike dropped from 35% to 24%.
Don’t underestimate this 11 percentage point drop. The crypto market now shadows US Treasury yields—the long-end yields cap prices, but easing rate hike expectations provide support. Both ends are moving, so prices can only grind within a narrow range.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US September nonfarm payrolls report will drop. This is the real bombshell of the week. Reference previous data: September corporate layoffs announced 43,281 people (lowest since 2022 for the same period), initial jobless claims below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks at 197,000; but September hiring plans only 90,787, down 23% year-over-year, the lowest since 2011. Fewer layoffs, even fewer hires—the labor market is freezing. If this data suddenly reverses, the direction will be violent.
Next, looking at market structure.
BTC $84,686 (+0.66%), range $83,128-$85,237. Above $87,660 there are about $245 million potential short liquidations; below $80,811, if broken, $4.35 billion of long leverage will become the most vulnerable link. SOL $118.72 (+1.19%) is the strongest among major coins, LTC $69.09 (+3.15%) is quietly strengthening too—small caps are rising, indicating on-exchange funds are still seeking beta, not truly withdrawing.
Then there’s ZEC, where I feel a bit of irony is needed.
ZEC $1,334 (-3.20%), 24h high $1,450, low $1,305, range volatility 8%. Looking back at its rise logic: Grayscale’s ZCSH spot product launched on NYSE Arca at the end of August, AUM surged to the $900 million level; 21Shares Europe physical ETP followed; when the sector price fell below 1000 and 1200, tens of millions in short liquidations occurred in a single day; hidden pool supply rose from 4.38 million mid-year to about 4.91 million, with hidden trading accounting for up to 59%.
The narrative chain is complete. But today ZEC is the worst performer among major coins, while Grayscale just completed a "3-for-1" share split—the split doesn’t change fundamentals, but it often appears at sentiment peaks.
After rising more than 20 times, the Q4 test is no longer "how compelling the story is," but "whether hidden pool usage can continue to grow." The former is fully priced in; the latter is the real variable.
My judgment, three points.
One, the $80,000-$88,000 range will likely grind for a while longer; a breakout will wait for nonfarm payrolls to give direction. Don’t guess direction, wait for data.
Two, BTC ETF continuous net outflows with price holding rely on long-term holders stepping in. On-chain data shows long-term holders’ net position has turned positive to 23,172 BTC. This signal carries more weight than daily ETF flows, but it supports the bottom, not the top.
Three, ZEC, as an "institutional channel" asset, will be strongest during a "rising rate cut expectations" window. Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls are strong and long-end yields step up again, its pullback will be the harshest. Don’t use the "privacy narrative" as an excuse for position.
Finally, a question for everyone: ZEC rose from $50 to $1,334—do you think the real Q4 driver is incremental funds from the Grayscale channel, or actual demand supported by hidden pool usage? I lean toward the latter—because the marginal increment from the former is visibly declining.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Zcash #Macro #MarketAnalysis $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL
The above content is only personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and bear your own risks. October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with average returns and median gains both approaching 20%. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach around $95,000. I sold part of my position at $87,000 and have bought back near $83,000, while keeping a position to watch for support at $80,000. Another key variable is the Nasdaq: after consolidating for half a year, it has returned near its previous highs. A successful breakout would boost risk appetite and benefit the crypto market; if the breakout fails and forms a double top, the resulting pullback pressure will also be transmitted. For ETH, short-term support is at 2650 and resistance at 2750, suitable for range trading, but a long horizontal trend will eventually break, so it's wise to keep a backup plan. $BTC $ETH$BTC US economic data is cooling down again!
ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 54.5.
Market expectation was 55.
This marks the lowest level in nearly 3 months!
But this can't be directly taken as a "big dovish signal" this time!
The US September ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly dropped from 54.6 to 54.5, below the market expectation of 55, but still firmly above the 50 expansion-contraction line, meaning manufacturing is still in expansion. More importantly, new orders actually rose from 53.7 to 55.3, and the employment index increased to 52.7, so this data looks more like a slight cooling in growth rather than a sudden economic weakening.
What really needs attention is the inflation component: the prices paid index surged from 71.1 to 77.9, indicating that cost pressures on the business side are actually stronger. For BTC, this data is mixed; PMI below expectations is somewhat positive for rate expectations, but rising price pressures will limit the Fed's dovish space. The key focus next is the reaction of US Treasury yields.
Economic cooling gives bulls some room, but inflation hasn't fully cooperated yet.
$BTC wants to catch a true macro tailwind, it still needs rate pressures to ease together!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $ETH $DOT's current situation is like a rook forced to the edge of the chessboard—only 0.1% of maneuvering space left before hitting the upper Bollinger Band; one more push and it's out of the game.
It moved only 1.74% in 24 hours. To outsiders, it looks calm; to insiders, it's the silence of midgame: both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move. The short-term RSI has climbed to 65.6, surpassing the 64 warning line; the long-term RSI is only 46.8, stuck in the equilibrium zone. These two lines are completely disconnected—the short-term has taken the initiative, while the long-term is still slowly repositioning on the rear wing. I've seen this structure many times in grandmaster matches: it looks like an attack but is actually bait before sacrificing a piece.
Looking again at the Bollinger Bands. The mid-term price position has already hit 101%, with the upper band breached by 0.0%. This is not a strong breakout but an overextension. Looking downward, the mid-term lower band still has 3.5% depth—that's the real corridor for pawns to advance; the short-term lower band has only 2.1% distance, indicating volatility has been compressed to the extreme—the longer the compression, the fiercer the breakthrough will be.
My judgment is clear: I will not place a move at 0.83. This is a classic stalemate where whoever moves first loses. I will wait for the opponent to push the pawn to 0.87—4.7% above the current price—that's my preset exchange point and the last decent entry window for the bears. If the price fails to break through and weakens directly, the support near 0.80 is just a false fortress in the endgame.
Trading plan:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.87 (current price +4.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.77 (-6.5%)
Take Profit 2: 0.80 (-3.3%)
Stop Loss: 0.97 (+17.1%)
From a risk control perspective, the 17.1% stop loss seems wide, but compared to the 1.74% intraday amplitude, this is the buffer for the chess clock—being swept out by a single upper shadow is more humiliating than being checkmated elegantly. The first target's 6.5% space is enough to cover the risk exposure; the second target's 3.3% is my pre-lock on half the position, dragging the situation into a controllable endgame.
The containment is already formed; the weak long-term pawn line at 46.8 will eventually drag back the short-term's rash advance. In this $DOT game, the initiative is in the bears' hands; any bull counterattack only delays that checkmate. #strategyplaybookThis round of institutional upward revisions is mainly based on several logics: 🔹 crypto market trading activity is rebounding 🔹, marginal improvement 🔹 in macro environment, about $5 billion is expected to flow into crypto investment products/ETFs over the next 12 months, 🔹 the US Treasury continues to conduct long-term Treasury repurchases 🔹, and new room for US crypto regulatory policies is emerging. Meanwhile, Citigroup has raised its 12-month price target for ETH from $2,240 to $3,028. However, there is still a clear contradiction in the market: BTC ETFs had seen inflows for several consecutive days, but on September 30, there was a net outflow of about $149 million in a single day, interrupting the previous inflow trend. On the macro front, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds once surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2002; September nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, and employment data will continue to influence market pricing for the Fed's subsequent policies. Therefore, $113,000 can be seen as Citi's scenario target based on current capital flows, macro environment, and policy expectations, and does not mean BTC will rise in a straight line. In the short term, focus should still be paid to: ETF capital flows + US Treasury yields + September nonfarm payrolls + Fed rate hike expectations. Institutional targets can be referenced, but what truly determines the market trend are funds and macro data. ⚠️ #加息预期推迟 #9月非农 #比特币ETF #美债收益率 #BTC #ETH #ZECMON current price 0.03353
After a rapid surge in 4 hours
Entered a high-level pullback phase
Resistance at 0.03374, support at 0.03304
Short-term bullish trend still intact
Just surged high then pulled back to digest profit-taking
Holding above 0.03374 resistance
Likely to challenge previous high of 0.03522 again
If it breaks below 0.03304 support
This short-term upward structure will weaken
Approaching positive events
Market volatility will increase
$MON $CT $ZEC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $AUDM This blueprint is currently in the quiet period of minimal wind load—24H amplitude is only -0.06%, with almost all load-bearing columns stationary in their original positions, but the price has already touched the 5% level below the short-term Bollinger Band lower band, which is a typical stress concentration zone. Anyone who truly understands structures knows that the calmer the floor slab, the tighter the rebar underneath is stretched.
Looking at the short-term Bollinger Bands: the current price is only 0.0% away from the lower band and just 0.1% from the upper band, compressing the entire range into a thin plate. The mid-term is even more intriguing; the price is stuck at the 25th percentile, with only +0.2% buffer down to the foundation and +0.7% clearance up to the ridge—this is not balance, but a cantilever structure waiting for the load direction.
RSI1H has fallen below 38, entering the oversold condition zone. In my professional experience, this signals the end of the concrete curing period, where the formwork can be removed but loading has not yet started. Panic selling has released short-term stress too aggressively, yet no settlement cracks have appeared in the foundation.
My trading plan is arranged according to construction milestones:
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.68 (current price -2.1%)
Take Profit 1: 0.71 (+2.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.70 (+0.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.62 (-11.6%)
Note that Take Profit 2 is deliberately set below the first target—this is not a mistake but layered acceptance: first confirm that the original floor at 0.70 is reloaded, then advance to the upper layer at 0.71. The stop loss is set at 0.62, which is the original casting surface of this round of foundation; if breached, it indicates the load-bearing wall design itself needs to be re-approved.
The essence of risk control is not to avoid setting stop losses, but that the stop loss level must fall on the hard bearing layer confirmed by the geological survey report. 0.62 is that rock layer. #美债收益率冲上高位, liquidity pressure remains unresolved #BTCETF九日流入结束, ETH funds continue to weaken. The US job market has once again given the market a "tough" answer. The latest data shows that initial jobless claims in the US fell to 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, and has remained below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks; Continuing jobless claims also fell to about 1.701 million, at the lowest level since 2023. There are no obvious signs of deterioration in the job market so far. So here's the question: The market originally hoped employment would cool and give the Fed more room for easing, but although companies keep citing costs and operational pressures, actual layoffs remain limited. The stronger the job resilience, the harder it is for the Fed to quickly switch to easing. What's even more noteworthy is that the September nonfarm payroll report is about to be released, which is the real macro focus ahead. If employment data continues to beat expectations, rate cut expectations may be further delayed; Conversely, if employment cools significantly, the market may re-trade easing expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market remains challenging. The 10-year Treasury yield recently surged to about 5.34%, and the 30-year yield also surpassed 5.67%, with long-term financing costs remaining high. Although yields have subsequently declined, the high interest rate environment has not yet truly eased. A notable change has also occurred in the crypto market: previously, U.S. spot BTC ETFs had net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.1 billion, but suddenly on September 30,Nonfarm Night: BTC Stuck in 81.7–85.5K Range, Tonight Decides the Direction
Conclusion first: BTC has been consolidating in the 81,700–85,518 range for four days. Tonight at 20:30, the September Nonfarm Payrolls will be released (expected new jobs: 53,000; unemployment rate: 4.1%). This data is the key to breaking the box. No move before the data; after the data, only trade breakouts with retests—the upper and lower boundaries of the range are the only meaningful levels tonight.
Background clarified first. BTC closed September at 83,563 and last week’s weekly close was 84,450, the highest weekly close since late January, showing a strong pattern. But overhead pressure comes from the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.34%, the highest since 2002, with real rates near a 15-year high—this is a constraint for high-beta assets. On the capital side, spot ETFs had a net inflow of $6.34 billion in Q3, but on September 30 alone, there was an outflow of $148.7 million, indicating weakening marginal flows. The pattern favors bulls, but macro and capital factors hedge each other, resulting in the range.
Trading plan:
If data is weaker than expected (new jobs far below forecast or unemployment rate rises): bias bullish. Trigger: 4H close above 85,518, then retest 85,500–84,800 without breaking down. Stop loss: below 84,200. Targets: 87,400 (September high), 90,000.
If data is stronger than expected (new jobs exceed 80,000): bias bearish. Trigger: 4H close below 81,700, then rebound suppressed at 81,700–82,500. Stop loss: above 83,100. Targets: 80,000, 78,500.
No-trade zones: chasing back and forth in the mid-range 82,500–84,500; the first 15 minutes after data release; if data meets expectations and price remains stuck in the range, close positions for the day.
Risk control: Volatility on Nonfarm night is several times the usual. Only trade breakouts with retests, do not chase the first move; reduce single position size by half; stop loss is discipline. Breakouts can be true or false—only a stable retest counts. A common scenario on data nights is a sweep to one side followed by a reversal; surviving is more important than capturing the full move.$GRASS The overall trend of GRASS is upward, but short-term indicators are clearly overbought. I took profits from several pullbacks earlier and am no longer in a hurry to open new short positions; I have a high-level pending order at 1.1 waiting.
KDJ has entered a high-level range, and short-term fluctuations and pullbacks may occur at any time. The first resistance ahead is 0.75, with the previous high at 0.819 being a strong resistance. 1.1 is a high-level ambush order for the distant term, not for short-term speculation.
In an uptrend, shorting with heavy positions prematurely is most taboo, as it is easy to get stopped out by trend extensions. Maintain a light position ambush approach and wait for the market to surge to the target area before acting. The support below is at 0.60; if it breaks down effectively, the bullish trend structure will loosen.
Be patient and wait for a bull trap surge; do not stubbornly resist the trend prematurely.$ETH just delivered an impressive quarter—but I wouldn’t chase the move blindly. $ETH gained around 70.8% in Q3, rebounding from roughly $1,570 to $2,680 after two weak quarters. It also outperformed $BTC , which gained about 42.7%, while ETH/BTC climbed roughly 19%. Spot ETH ETFs attracted around $3.1B in net inflows, showing renewed institutional demand. But the bigger question is what comes next. ETH is still below its previous ATH, and a strong Q3 doesn’t guarantee another strong quarter. FShort-term focus includes: 🔹 Resistance above: $🔹 120.35; Support below: $116.90 🔹; Core oscillation range: $116.9–$120.4. Currently, both bulls and bears are clearly in a stalemate; the closer the price gets to the edge of the range, the more likely volatility will be after a breakout. Recently, SOL spot ETF funds have also changed, with a net outflow of about $11.1 million recorded on September 30. The pace of inflows has slowed recently, so the breakout near $120 is worth watching. On the macro side, market attention has shifted to the US September nonfarm payroll data. After PCE data cooled, expectations for a rate hike in October have clearly declined, but employment data may still re-impact the interest rate path; Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields previously rose to multi-year highs and remain a source of pressure for risk assets. So don't rush to chase gains in the short term: hold above $120 → watch for further breakout space; break below $116.9 → watch if the oscillation structure weakens. $SOL $XRP $ZEC #加息预期降温 #9月非农 #Solana #SOL行情 #比特币ETF #美债收益率 #加密市场$368 million in trading volume cannot be directly translated as net buying
As of 17:25 on October 1, OKX's $ETH spot 24-hour trading volume was approximately $368.5 million, with a volume of about 136,700 ETH. This figure proves market activity but does not tell us how much capital is "net inflow." Every trade has both a buyer and a seller; an increase in trading volume could come from active buying, panic selling, arbitrage turnover, or market makers continuously adjusting inventory. To determine whether capital is truly pushing up the cost, the trading volume needs to be put back into the price structure: after a volume surge and price rise, can the high level hold? Does selling pressure weaken during a pullback? Is the rebound sustained rather than just a spike? Today's price dropped from 2738.98 back to around 2691, indicating that the high-volume trading did not fully convert into stable support. Activity level is necessary information but not a directional conclusion. For $ETH, I prefer to see a higher platform formed after increased volume rather than using a nice total volume figure to mask a spike and fall. The volume-price relationship must be observed continuously; single-day trading volume cannot replace judgment.
If volume continues to increase but the price falls, the implication is completely opposite to a volume surge that holds steady at 2739.The recently released US August PCE was significantly below expectations, with core PCE falling year-on-year to 3.0%, giving risk assets a breather, and BTC briefly climbed back above the $85,000 mark. But the problem is, US Treasury yields remain high, and macro pressure has not truly disappeared. The real test remains tonight's US September nonfarm payroll. Currently, the market generally expects about 90,000 new nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate to stay around 4.1%; Previous ADP data showed that private sector employment in September increased by 90,000, higher than the market expectation of 70,000. So the significance of this nonfarm payroll is very direct: if employment is clearly stronger than expected, the market may re-trade the logic of "high interest rates lasting longer," and both US Treasury yields and the dollar could once again put pressure on risk assets; If employment cools significantly, it could further strengthen market expectations for a shift in monetary policy. $BTC BTC is currently fluctuating around $84,200–84,500. At this stage, I am more focused on two positions: support: $82,500–$83,000; Resistance: $85,000–$85,500. Over the past week, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $2.39 billion. Institutional demand remains, but the inflow rate in the following days has clearly slowed. So now is not simply bullish or bearish, but rather whether BTC can truly hold above $85,500. If it can't rise, the previous high remains just resistance; If it can't hold $82,500, the consolidation structure may continue to move downwardWoke up early in the morning
Saw $ZEC made a 50% profit, decisively took profits this time, didn’t hold on to die, learned from previous losses, afraid the profit would be completely given back in the end
Then continued shorting $SOL, after observing these two days, found sol is still weak, tried a small short position 📉, will hold for a couple of days first
Still holding the short position on $XIAOMI, the market will open soon, let's see how it performs today. Many people are bearish on Xiaomi just by looking at the recent financial report. Stock trading is about expectations; the recent financial report has already been reflected in the stock price, it will rebound later, this expectation won’t change, let’s wait and see!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 $SOL is currently around $117.7 to $118.1, after reaching a 24-hour high of $119.6 and then pulling back, fluctuating in the short term between $116.7 and $120. In the medium term, it has rebounded from the June low with a structure leaning towards recovery. Continuous weekly net inflows from ETFs provide support, but it has been blocked twice near $125, and momentum has yet to confirm a breakout. Key resistance above is between $120 and $125; only a breakout with volume will have a chance to challenge $132 to $150. Support below is between $115 and $117; if broken, it may retest $106 to $110. The current trend is cautiously recovering, and in the short term, it is more suitable to observe whether $125 can be effectively reclaimed rather than chasing longs based solely on the rebound. "Slap of Leverage"
This move by the green-haired trader is like throwing a match into a pot of oil.
On $BTC, he simultaneously opened a 75x isolated long and a 100x cross long, both with entry costs above 84000. The positions were just opened around midnight, and within two to three hours, the market only dropped less than 1%, about seven to eight hundred dollars, yet the account was already severely damaged: one position lost 71%, the other 60%, totaling over 3000 U. It’s not that the direction was wildly wrong, but leverage amplified normal fluctuations into fatal wounds.
$ETH was even more urgent. With 100x isolated leverage, 30 long contracts entered at 2693, within an hour the price dropped to 2678, just a 15-dollar, less than 1% decline, but the principal evaporated nearly 62%, over 500 U lost. There were also short orders below that weren’t fully closed, likely repeatedly harvested in the crossfire of longs and shorts.
The cruelest part of high leverage is that the market doesn’t need to crash; it only needs to shake lightly for the positions to collapse first. Frequent order openings and heavy positions charging forward may seem aggressive, but in reality, they leave life and death to minute-level fluctuations. The market doesn’t target anyone; it’s just that leverage first wipes out the margin for error.
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Looking at this account, I fell into deep thought.
Both are long positions, both are "buy," so why is the difference so huge?!🤡
Big coin (BTC) 10x full position, steady as an old dog, comfortably floating profit +5892 U (+7%). Estimated liquidation price at 75,000, this position is so safe I even want to take a nap.😎
Then look at the neighbor's SOL... 50x isolated margin, opening average price 120.33, current price 118.74. Although it only dropped less than 2 points, the power of leverage directly turned the profit into -66.06%!💀
Floating loss of 159 U is not much, but this -66% red number is literally torturing my heart. Liquidation price 80.73, now it's like walking a tightrope.
The worst tragedy in crypto is: using money earned from big coin to pay tuition for altcoins. $BTC $SOL $BTC $ETH $USELESS The volume of coins on today's gainers list is generally low. The main reason is that most of the listed tokens are small-cap altcoins and Meme coins with very thin order book depth. These types of coins don't require huge funds; a small number of buy orders can quickly push the price up by seven to eight percent, which is completely different from large-cap coins like BTC and ETH.
Many of the rallies are not driven by large inflows of new funds but are more passive buying triggered by short stop-losses, resulting in a pulse-like market. The exchange's gainers list sorts only by percentage increase, naturally filtering out low-liquidity small coins, while large-cap coins with small fluctuations rarely make the list.
Just like the USELESS I hold, this rebound is a volume-shrinking recovery without a large amount of new funds taking over. This kind of market rises quickly but lacks support; after the heat fades, the decline is equally rapid. It is only suitable as a window to reduce losses, not as a trend reversal.13 days into this short, and instead of crashing, the market is slowly testing my patience. $BTC is still around $84K,$ETH near $2.68K, and my short positions remain stuck in limbo. The plan was to hold for 2–4 weeks, but the market keeps refusing to break down. Even with high Treasury yields and plenty of bearish headlines, PCE gave buyers another boost. Now NFP is next. Will weak data trigger another drop, or will the market once again turn bad news into a bullish reaction? No more adding. JWaiting for Nonfarm Payrolls
The Federal Reserve is caught in the middle. Price pressures have indeed eased a bit, and the core PCE decline makes the market think a rate hike in October is unlikely. Goldman Sachs has even postponed rate hikes until the end of the year. But the labor market is not convinced; once ADP data came out, resilience remains, and Kashkari continues to hawkishly signal that the door for another hike this year is still open. Inflation gives hope, employment holds it back, no one dares to move first, so everyone waits for the Nonfarm Payrolls.
The crypto market is similarly stuck. BTC's upward momentum is weak, and its pullbacks find support, oscillating at high levels with no one daring to take heavy positions before the data. ETH's decline is limited, and so is its rise; ETF and upgrade expectations support it, but it can't break out into an independent trend. SOL rose too fast earlier, and this round of pullback is also quick; first, watch for support. OKB's volatility is small, suitable for long-term holding, but no short-term highlights. XRP still follows declines but not rises, lacking catalysts for improvement.
Now both bulls and bears are waiting. Inflation easing is good news, but strong employment is a constraint. Without Nonfarm Payrolls data, any directional guess is half likely to be wrong. Rather than taking sides early, it's better to wait for the data to land and sentiment to digest, then see how BTC chooses. Take light positions and follow the trend.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH $BTC It's the 14th day of shorting the grid, and I'm starting to doubt my own judgment,
feeling a bit mentally exhausted!
I've held the position for almost two weeks. The price has never returned to the cost line. Last time, bad news suddenly turned into good news, and at midnight today, there was no good news, yet Bitcoin pulled from 83,000 to nearly 85,000.
The most frustrating thing is not just losing money, but the repeated tug-of-war of "it looks like it's going to drop but it just won't." BTC and ETH have failed to break resistance several times; according to previous logic, there should have been a pullback by now, but each time it bounces back. Bad news fully priced in turns into good news, PCE below expectations spikes then falls back, non-farm payrolls haven't come yet, and I'm already getting anxious.
Three grids, and I'm floating at a loss again!!
Tonight is the non-farm payrolls. I know I shouldn't predict the direction, but I can't help thinking:
If the data is weak, will I be forced to hold again?
If the data is strong, will it give me a breather?
Will bad news turn into good news again?
Will bad news be fully priced in again, and then the price won't fall?
Are there any brothers holding positions like me? How long have you been holding? What are your thoughts now?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ETH ETH is currently around $2,705, having reached a 24-hour high of $2,722 before pulling back, with short-term pressure repeatedly near $2,720. The mid-term structure has been somewhat recovering since the rebound in September, but ETFs have recently seen net outflows again, causing fluctuations in capital flow. Key resistance above is at $2,720-$2,750; only if volume increases and it stabilizes there will there be a chance to challenge $2,850-$3,000. On the downside, support is first seen at $2,650-$2,660; if broken, a retest of $2,550-$2,600 is possible. Current volatility is relatively low, and the trend has not yet confirmed a strengthening. In the short term, it is more suitable to observe key levels and capital flow changes rather than chasing longs based solely on rebounds. Today's market situation actually feels quite comfortable for me. ZEC is currently around $1,435, and after surging to $1,493, it started to pull back. The 24-hour drop looks slight, but what's really worth noting isn't how much has fallen, but rather the changing rhythm of the uptrend. Short-term indicators have started to cool down: RSI6 has fallen back to around 48.6, having fallen from a high into neutral territory, and short-term buying is clearly less aggressive than in previous days. Currently, the MACD DIF is still above DEA, but the bullish bars have clearly shortened. If a death cross occurs later, the short-term correction may expand further. KDJ's J value has also turned downward from its high. So now it seems more like: the price hasn't truly broken down yet, but the upward momentum has started to weaken. Of course, the recent fundamentals of ZEC cannot be completely ignored. Recently, large addresses have been transferring ZEC from exchanges on-chain. On September 30, about 2,000 ZEC, worth approximately $2.8 million, was withdrawn from Binance and concentrated at a single address. At the same time, Zcash-related ETF funds also experienced phased outflows. This means the market is not simply "no one wants ZEC," but rather: some are accumulating, others are reducing positions, and short-term longs and bears are repricing. Now let's look at the broader market. The strong record of BTC spot ETFs with net inflows of 9 consecutive days and a cumulative total of about 3.1 billion USD has ended, with the latest single-day rebound$FIL, what a joke, the halving is about to happen, don't blame the knife for being sharp
The halving countdown is about ten days, and FIL is still playing dead. It neither falls nor rises, moving sideways like a flatline on an ECG. Who is this show for?
Don't treat the halving like a resurrection. Every halving in the crypto world gets hyped in advance. Expectations shout bullish every day, but when the day comes, fireworks go off, people scatter, and only chips remain on the ground. Good news turns into bad news, an old script, just with a new batch of believers each time.
Look at the miners: some run, some shut down, but they still hold inventory. On-chain chips are as chaotic as a night market—bottom-fishers, position fillers, stubborn holders, layer upon layer. I just ask: who will pull it up? Faith? Calls from group friends?
This sideways movement now doesn’t look like building momentum, more like fishing. Fishing for that phrase “it must rise after halving.” When it really lands, it might not take off but trigger a waterfall. Is there a safety net below? I doubt it.
Don’t rush, let the bullets fly for a few days. $FIL at this position looks more and more like a bull trap. Not advising you to trade, profits and losses are on you, I just feel—this play is about to reach its climax.$BERA Damn it! This $BERA chart is giving me a headache. At 0.2392, it's purely a capital game with no fundamental support at all. The manipulative whales are calling each other idiots inside, playing with sharp spikes up and down, and retail investors just can't hold on—they're all shaken out by the washouts.
Looking at the K-line, the rebound volume is shrinking sharply, and the resistance around 0.245 is tight as hell. This is a classic bull trap. No matter what others shout, I only trust the short side in this setup.
Trading plan: Short directly around the current price of 0.2392, stop loss at 0.2485, first target at 0.2250, and if that breaks, then look for 0.2180.
Don't say I didn't warn you, this trade goes against the sentiment, so control your position size strictly. Brothers who want to follow, check the market card below and analyze the chart yourself—don't come asking me later why I didn't lead you.
👇👇👇U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Thursday: the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7666 points, the Nasdaq was basically flat, and the Dow Jones edged up. The market rallied during the session but gave back some gains by the close — the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 5.24%, not far from the high of 5.34%. The real big mover was oil: WTI rose 2.75% approaching $93, and gold also touched $4208. The market is trading a tricky combination: the cooling August PCE gave stocks a breather, but as oil prices rise, inflation expectations can't be suppressed. To put it plainly: before the rate decision at the end of the month, the steering wheel is not in the hands of the stock market, but in the hands of long-term yields and oil prices; tonight's nonfarm payrolls report is the next referee.Currently, Ethereum's official data shows the network staking APR is only about 2.6%, which is clearly below the 3%–4% many people imagine. In other words, if your sole purpose in buying ETH is to earn this staking return, it's easy to wonder: Why not directly allocate funds to money markets or other low-volatility yield products? After all, ETH itself has to bear price fluctuations. Suppose ETH earns 2.6% per year by staking but the token price draws back 20% over the same period, that staking gain is quickly swallowed by price fluctuations. Staking yields themselves cannot turn ETH into a traditional "zero-risk interest asset." So I think the logic for understanding ETH should be reconsidered: staking yields are just additional returns from holding ETH, not the core reason to buy ETH. What truly supports ETH's long-term value is still Ethereum's own ecosystem—DeFi, stablecoins, L2s, on-chain settlement, RWA, and the future demand for ETH across the network. The significance of staking is that long-term holders can participate in network security while also earning some protocol layer rewards. Ethereum officially defines staking as part of the network's consensus and security mechanisms, not just as a "wealth management product." Even more interestingly, by 2026, the US market has already started to adopt this$XCH minimum setup is a Raspberry Pi 4 with 4 GB RAM for CLI farming, or 8 GB for GUI farming. (This guide will show how to set up a GUI farm.) Many farmers choose Pi because it consumes very little power.
Plotting, on the other hand, is resource-intensive. Fortunately, once a plot is created, it can be farmed for years. A Pi can be used for plotting, but the speed will be quite slow. The same goes for laptops. In the long run, these are not very good options.
However, for creating your first plot, it’s a good idea to use the device you already have. Once you get a feel for Chia farming, you’ll have a better idea of what to buy later.
Plot storage
For this guide, we will create a single plot. This will require:
4 GB of available memory
If you don’t have that much, Linux swap space can be used, but it will be slow
275 GB of temporary storage space
Hard drives can work, but will be slow
Solid-state drives are much faster; a good choice for this tutorial
RAM is the fastest option (minimum for RAM plotting is 256 GB; if you don’t have that much, don’t worry for now)
108.8 GB of free space for the plot to reside
Solid-state drives can work but are overkill
The vast majority of plots are stored on HDDs
A laptop or desktop with 400 GB of available space will meet these requirements. Micron's earnings report led to a roughly 3% rise to 1097, with customer commitments raised from 22 billion to 32 billion. I'm observing first and not chasing.
Here's what I saw: Q4 revenue about 54.2 billion, non-GAAP EPS about 33.4, next quarter guidance revenue about 61.5 billion, EPS about 38.2, all clearly above market expectations.
Strategic customer agreement amount about 32 billion (mostly deposits), gross margin still around 87%, the AI premium in storage won't ease anytime soon.
The market opened around 1054, dropped to about 1023 during the session, then pulled back to about 1097, with a high near 1099, volume about 44.76 million, quite volatile.
Simply put: the performance is really strong, but the price has already priced in the super cycle, chasing higher is like buying into others' realized emotions, don't mistake the earnings celebration for a free lunch.
I think in the short term, don't treat the beat as a buy signal; first see if it can hold today's high area before deciding whether to follow.
What I do: just observe, no chase.
If it breaks below today's low around 1023, continue down; or if it reclaims about 1099 with a strong move, then consider chasing.
Are you waiting for a pullback confirmation before acting, or do you think the guidance is strong enough to jump in directly?
$MU $NVDA $AMD
#Rate hike expectations delayed, September nonfarm payrolls become the next focus #US Treasury yields frequently hitting new highs, long-term rate pressure not easingThe PCE data obtained by the market this time is indeed favorable. In August, core PCE fell year-on-year to 3.0%, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%; Overall PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, both below market expectations. After the data was released, bets on further rate hikes in October cooled significantly, and risk assets were temporarily boosted. But the problem is: improving rate cut expectations does not mean capital will immediately flow back into BTC. What truly suppresses the market is U.S. Treasury yields. Recently, the 10-year yield has hovered around 5.2%, while the 30-year yield briefly broke through 5.6%, reaching its highest level since 2002. In other words, even though inflation data gives the Fed breathing room, the bond market is still telling investors that long-term funding costs are not low. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have further fueled inflation expectations. US-Iran tensions continue to affect transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recently briefly broke through $100 per barrel, and rising oil prices suggest inflationary pressures may reemerge in the future. High oil prices + high long-term bond yields—these two forces are simultaneously suppressing highly volatile risk assets. So BTC now seems to be experiencing a "tug-of-war" between long and bearish: PCE cooling → rate hike expectations lowering → positive for BTC, but US Treasury yields remain high→ increasing opportunity costs of capital → suppressing BTC valuations. Oil prices are rising→ inflation concerns are heating up→ limiting room for rate cuts. On the ETF funding front, previous continuous inflows have indeed supported BTC, but the latest data#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved
#Bitcoin ETF inflows continue for 9 consecutive days, ETH outflows
Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 197,000, below the expected 200,000, staying under 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, while continuing claims fell to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. The labor market is as tough as a rock.
Once this data came out, the market was stunned. Originally, it was hoped that cooling employment would give the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates, but companies verbally express pressure while being reluctant to lay off employees. Rate cut expectations have been dampened again.
For the crypto space, the logic is straightforward: strong employment → consumption and wages hold up → inflation pressure could rebound at any time → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates easily. Goldman Sachs has long "surrendered," abandoning rate cut predictions for this year and even doubling the probability of a rate hike to 20%. If rate hike expectations combine with soaring US Treasury yields, tightening liquidity will hit high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum first.
Currently, $BTC is struggling around $84,000, $ETH is under pressure below $2,700, and after continuous ETF inflows, there was also a single-day net outflow of $149 million. The crypto market doesn't want to go independent; the macro faucet hasn't been turned on yet. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the day the Federal Reserve truly eases.