wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Tonight $BTC stands back above 86,000, and this wave of momentum is not baseless—the September nonfarm payroll report has been released, with figures basically meeting expectations. The softer employment data has allowed the market to breathe a sigh of relief: the urgency for rate hikes has eased, and risk assets have rebounded accordingly.
My long positions have gained about one full point these past two days. But the more smoothly things go, the more I remind myself: profits earned are most easily given back on the next pullback. My approach is not to blindly rejoice at the price but to move my stop-loss upward—letting profits run, but never allowing them to turn into losses.
The direction at the moment the data lands is often not the true direction. When holding positions, discipline is more valuable than prediction.
Went long and won a position these two days. The most common question in private messages is: Since you were right, why not add more?
My answer has always been simple—low-frequency large bets, focusing on "low-frequency" and "when to act," not "pressing up after winning." One of the most dangerous pitfalls in poker is called "winning and expanding the pot": when luck is on your side, you feel invincible and turn what should be small bets into big pots, only to lose it all in a comeback.
I only add bets in one situation: when the market gives a new, independent reason to enter, not because I already have unrealized profits. Unrealized profits are never a reason to add positions; they are just a number on the ledger.
Controlling your hands is more likely to keep you alive for the next round than just being right about the direction.
An easily overlooked number: Piper slashed Nike's target price from $38 directly down to $28. On the consumer side, things are declining, while on the other side, AI and tech leaders' market caps hit new highs every day—within the same economy, it's a tale of two extremes.
This is the key term to understand now: K-shaped. Money isn't broadly rising; it's squeezing into a few winners. What does this mean for trading? Don't expect a "flooding the market, everyone rising" scenario. This cycle is about the strong getting stronger and the weak being weeded out. Those holding leading assets like $BTC are riding the tailwind; those holding a bunch of altcoins without narratives or funding support will likely continue to slide.
Choosing the right side is sometimes more important than picking the right direction.
Don't just focus on that line on the chart when trading coins. This morning, Nomura raised Alibaba's net profit forecast for fiscal year 2027 by 7%, citing that it has secured positions in almost every key link of the AI value chain—chips, infrastructure, models, applications.
What does this have to do with the crypto world? Because the big narrative behind this round of risk assets is fundamentally the same: AI capital expenditure is still increasing, with money concentrating on computing power and leading tech companies. As long as this money keeps flowing, crypto, as a high-beta risk asset, has the confidence to follow along; the real time to pack up will be when the AI capex story turns around.
Focusing on the right macro engine is more practical than counting K-lines every day.