Orbit Post Sitemap
Really don't make your brother laugh, is this the non-farm payroll? $ETH can't even break 2800, previously it broke through 2530 to 2700 continuously, the 2700-2800 range was mostly short squeeze stop-loss buy-ins pushing the price up to 2800, with 9 days of range oscillation. Today it broke out of the box structure and stabilized above 2700.
Before today's non-farm data was released, it already stood above 2700 during the day, I felt something bad might happen and prepared stop-loss plans, $BTC. So this is it? Now $ZEC is still floating with a profit of 200,000 USD, all short positions remain unchanged, continue holding.Pullback to Re-Enter: SOL Short-Term Trading Strategy Analysis
The current SOL trend is not suitable for blindly chasing gains. A more prudent strategy is to patiently wait for the price to pull back to the 118.50–119.00 range, near the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line at approximately 118.54, and confirm stabilization signals before considering going long. The first target above is 119.76; if volume breaks through this level, the price could further rise to the upper Bollinger Band at 120.11. If the price falls below 116.90, it is recommended to exit promptly to control risk.
The logic supporting this strategy mainly includes three points:
First, the chip structure shows a short squeeze situation. The nominal long-short ratio of whale accounts reaches 372%, with the average long position price around 112.37 and current unrealized profit close to 81%; meanwhile, the average short price at 113.55 is already at a loss. As the price rises, the risk of short squeeze intensifies, potentially driving the price higher.
Second, the technical pattern remains healthy. Since the rally started from the low of 95.66, the price has consolidated with decreasing volume near the middle band, with pullback lows gradually rising, showing a typical bullish continuation pattern; the uptrend remains intact.
Third, there is a clear selling pressure zone above. The areas near 119.76 and 124.95 are previous dense trading zones with strong resistance, making a direct breakout difficult; accumulation and consolidation are needed before a further breakout.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Tonight's nonfarm payrolls, don't just focus on the 84,000 figure.
Conclusion first: I don't plan to take a long or short position in advance, but I will control my position size so that "even if I'm proven wrong, I won't be liquidated."
I know this sounds like a cliché, but think about it yourself—haven't there been many times in past nonfarm reports where the first spike wiped out stop losses, and only the second wave showed the real direction?
---
On the news front, there's a detail many people haven't noticed.
The market consensus is an increase of 84,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, but the forecast range is wildly broad—from 35,000 to 180,000. What does this mean? It means that no matter where the data lands tonight, someone will have correctly predicted it in advance, while most others will be on the passive side.
More importantly, there's another factor: CTA trend funds currently hold about $390 billion in global bond short positions. The U.S. 10-year Treasury short position is at 99% of its historical maximum, and the 30-year is at 100%. If the nonfarm data is weak and the unemployment rate jumps to 4.2%, these players will be forced to cover their shorts, causing violent fluctuations in the bond market and a much sharper dollar weakness than most expect. This is the truly underestimated "explosion point" tonight—not the new jobs number itself, but the crowdedness of bond shorts.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, the probability of a rate hike in October has plummeted from 70% to about 25% over the past week. Williams said "no rush to raise rates," and Bowman said "no urgency." But note, this does not mean a policy shift; they are just holding their cards until December. The October 27-28 meeting will most likely see no change.
---
On the market front, here are some of my judgments.
$BTC is currently around 83,200, with 82,000 as a short-term watershed and 80,800 as the bulls' cost zone; the repeated test of 84,800 above failed to hold, so resistance is strong. ETH is at 2,690, with 2,630 as intraday support; if 2,570 breaks, the trend turns weak, and there are many short positions accumulated above 2,760.
But one divergence is worth noting: $BTC spot ETFs ended a 9-day streak of net inflows, with a total outflow of 173 million over two days starting September 30; $ETH spot ETFs have had three consecutive days of outflows, yet the market is rebounding. Why? Because ETFs represent institutional funds, and the current rebound is the market betting on dovish nonfarm expectations. The capital flow is bearish, the expectations are bullish, and this divergence makes the rebound's foundation weak.
If tonight's nonfarm is stronger than expected, the logic of institutions that fled earlier will be reinforced, and the market's pullback speed will be faster than many expect. If weaker, expectations temporarily dominate, and the rebound may continue, but the hidden risk of continuous ETF outflows won't be erased by the data.
---
My trading approach, for reference only:
I won't act before the data tonight, nor will I bet on direction. After the data is released, I'll wait for the first spike to end and the direction to stabilize before making moves. If the nonfarm surprises to the downside, bond short covering could trigger a quick move, but I won't chase the first wave; I'll wait for a pullback to confirm. If $BTC breaks below 82,000 effectively, I'll consider reducing positions rather than bottom-fishing; if $ETH breaks 2,570, it's not a "buying opportunity" but a signal of trend weakening.
I see the oversold recovery in $ZEC, but on nonfarm night I won't touch small caps; liquidity risk is much greater than directional risk.
Finally, a sincere word: Tonight, what's important is not whether your directional call is right, but whether you can stay at the table after being wrong. Data can be redone, but principal cannot.
The above is only my personal market review and does not constitute investment advice. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 After all that, the non-farm payrolls are just hyping things up again, right?
$ETH short positions show no signs of getting tighter nor any signs of being unwound.
So what kind of market is this now? It mysteriously rose this afternoon.
Then it just stayed sideways at night, hovering around 2750, stubbornly refusing to drop.
Right now, the bears really have no way out, living in constant fear all day long.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH Dog Chuan made a move, continuing to revise the data, and the non-farm payrolls directly disappointed with a cold surprise.
Only 29,000 new jobs were added in September, while the market expected over 80,000; the unemployment rate is 4.2%, and hourly wages only rose 0.1% month-over-month.
Even worse, July was revised down to a negative number, cutting a total of 60,000 jobs from the previous two months.
Translation: Employment is cooling down, wages are no longer rising, and the Fed has one less big reason to keep raising interest rates.
Traders instantly understood, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from over 60% a week ago to less than 20%.
Fed: Okay, okay, so this is how you want to play? 🤣At midday, I said the rate turned negative and told you not to scare yourselves. Now here’s the update: BTC rate returned to +0.0061%, the negative phase lasted only half a day. Price is 86,681, up 3.8% in 24 hours, and earlier it even dipped to 83,432. Honestly, that spike probably scared off a lot of long positions. The old conclusion that "a single negative turn is mostly a shakeout" matched tonight. But to be clear: this is just a tendency from my 15 tests, not a prophecy. If the rate stays negative for two or three days straight, I’d still call it dangerous. OI is 29,454 BTC, 2.55 billion U, actually down by over 700 since midday. Price rising while positions shrink likely means shorts got squeezed out, effectively buying for the price. New longs? The rate at +0.0061% tells you no one is lining up to enter. ETH rate is +0.0047%, still flat. SOL is the strongest tonight, +4.8% to 122, rate exactly 0.01%, the only one of the three brothers not faking it. Greed index 71. Sentiment is high, leverage still playing dumb. My previous falsification line was rate back above 0.01% and OI over 30,000: tonight OI reversed, rate still just short, so no need to revise the conclusion yet. 86,000 was held, the squeezed shorts won’t come back. Next, watch whether the rate rises first to cover positions, or the price drops first to catch them?$BTC Tonight's non-farm payrolls could easily trigger a major market reversal. The market looks like it's taking off across the board, but don't get impulsive and chase longs—it’s very easy to get caught at the peak after a sudden waterfall drop.
BTC has been consolidating for a long time, and after stabilizing support, it’s gaining strength again. This morning it surged straight from 84000 to 86800, hit resistance at the top, and has now pulled back to hover around 86000. As long as it can hold key support levels, there’s still a chance to move higher.
Compared to BTC, ETH’s trend is clearly weaker. It held above 2700 this morning, only reaching 2730 initially, then caught up later to a high of 2777, but then lost momentum and pulled back. Non-farm payrolls cause fast volatility; chasing highs carries high risk, so don’t enter blindly.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Old Chive Observation】
$CPOOL did not experience extreme surges of 20% or 30% today; the current price is around $0.0365.
But there is a clear event node today:
CPOOL → CLEAR governance voting deadline. This is not an ordinary parameter adjustment.
According to the proposal, CPOOL will subsequently migrate to CLEAR at a 1:1 ratio, while redesigning the token economic model. One key point is the plan to allocate part of the protocol fees for: buyback + burn.
Additionally, Clearpool has recently been advancing: institutional credit + XRP Ledger + RLUSD.
So what the market is really waiting for now is not how much CPOOL rises today, but two outcomes:
First, whether the migration plan from CPOOL to CLEAR can pass.
Second, whether the institutional credit and RLUSD line can truly be implemented later.
CPOOL now looks more like:
The event is approaching, but the price has not completely broken out of the original trading range.
Entry: $0.0340–$0.0371
Take profit: $0.039 / $0.043 / $0.048 / $0.054 / $0.062
Stop loss: $0.031$ATOM ATOM Value Foundation: Technical Strength and Current Ecosystem
Technical foundation remains solid
1. IBC Protocol: Connected to over 115 networks, processed over $5 billion in transaction volume, with no exploits ever occurring.
2. Cosmos SDK: Used by more than 200 chains, including Polygon, Hyperliquid, Binance, and others.
3. IBC v2 Upgrade: Soon to support Solana and all EVM/L2 chains in production, aiming to upgrade from an "ecosystem internal standard" to an "industry-wide interoperability standard."
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
The leader has something to say
The treasury is still buying. Strategy increased holdings by 1,665 BTC at an average price near 85,000. Strive bought 1,107 BTC. BitMine's ETH holdings surpassed 6 million.
The model hasn't changed, relying on financing to buy coins. Common stock, preferred stock, all available tools are used. But with long-term US Treasury yields at 5.6%, financing costs are so high. If coin prices fall or financing windows tighten, this model becomes risky. Continuous accumulation is a long-term support but cannot change macro pressure in the short term.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson said AI development is pushing inflation, requiring more time to judge interest rates. Non-farm payrolls are released tonight; ADP employment at 90,000 is higher than expected. If non-farm is also strong, rate hike expectations will rise, putting pressure on BTC. If weaker, the probability of no action in October is higher. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I took profits on BTC longs at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, now fully in cash. No directional bets before non-farm data; will find positions after data is released.
No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.4:45 AM, before dawn, the account is already awake.
After holding Bitcoin for half a month, I finally saw a decent surge, but I couldn't smile. The most heartbreaking thing is never losing money, but losing money that was borrowed. Even more ironic, ZEC keeps slipping down slowly, bleeding every day, while Bitcoin seems to be deliberately going up relentlessly. One side's short positions get liquidated, the other side's shorts keep sinking, hedging both sides, a whole night wasted.
85500, that's my line of admitting a mistake. Now the price is hanging just below, like a knife hanging over me, watching my every move. Holding on, afraid it will surge again; cutting losses, afraid it will rebound.
The most frustrating thing about trading is not getting the direction wrong, but clearly seeing it right, yet being worn out to death before dawn because of position size and leverage. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Traditional validators and compounding validators have different reward processing logic.
The effective balance cap for traditional Type 1 validators is 32 ETH; any excess is periodically swept to the withdrawal address, and the surplus balance does not continue to increase consensus weight. Type 2 compounding validators allow rewards to continue accumulating up to a maximum of 2048 ETH, increasing the effective balance and reducing frequent sweeps. Neither mode is absolutely superior: the traditional mode returns earnings to the available account faster, while the compounding mode improves capital's sustained participation efficiency but also leaves more balance within the validator system. Operators need to choose based on cash flow, key management, and risk management, and should not assume higher returns simply because of the word "compounding." Actual returns are still affected by online rate, network rewards, and fees. For $ETH holders, understanding which credential the service provider uses, when rewards become available, and how exits are handled is more reliable than using a simple annualized calculator to project multi-year results.
The compounding mode also changes accounting and operational habits: rewards no longer flow out frequently, and balance growth is more concentrated. Teams need to monitor effective balance, exit permissions, and risk exposure, rather than just the number of validators.
Compounding is a balance structure, not a guarantee of returns.The biggest concern for $SUI is not the price fluctuations, but that the price has moved while participation hasn't kept up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.65 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends appearing strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires confirmation from the next candlestick.
The current price is 1.2029, about 6.30% above the 1-hour support at 1.1271, and about 1.31% below the resistance at 1.2186. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: regaining and holding above 1.2186 means taking back the initiative in the short term; breaking below 1.1271 shifts focus to the 4-hour support at 1.0922. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 1.2186 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
Is this volume contraction a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Only 29,000 non-farm jobs were recorded in September, with an expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. Once the data was released, rate hike bets were immediately cut. Interestingly, Bitcoin had already broken through 87,000 before the data was announced, reaching a high of 87,036, with a 24-hour increase of over 3.7%.
The logic here isn't complicated: ETF funds continue to flow in, institutions are accumulating below 85,000, and the non-farm data just added fuel to the breakout. On-chain data shows there is indeed profit-taking around 87,000, so be cautious about chasing short-term highs.
The daily chart breaks through the previous consolidation zone of 82,500 to 85,700, with 85,000 to 85,500 turning from resistance into support, and heavy selling pressure concentrated between 87,000 and 88,000. Keep positions light and leverage low; spikes are normal. $BTC $ETHTonight, the U.S. employment data is about to be released, but the crypto market seems to have already given its own "answer" in advance. 📊 The market currently expects about 76,000 new nonfarm jobs in the U.S. for September, down from about 162,000 previously; the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.1%. Interestingly, before the data is even out, risk assets have already rallied: ₿ BTC → around $85,700, up about 2.1% in 24 hours 🔵 ETH → around $2,680, up about 2.0% 🟣 SOL → around $121, up about 3.3% 🟢 ZEC → also following the market rebound This looks like a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. 📰 【Market Focus】 Recently, traders have been closely watching signs of cooling in the U.S. employment market. If September's nonfarm payrolls are significantly below market expectations, it could further strengthen expectations for a future shift toward looser monetary policy, thereby supporting risk assets like BTC and ETH. But what really deserves attention is not just the number of new jobs added in September. 👉 Whether August's data is revised downward is equally critical. If August employment figures are significantly revised down, then even if September's published number is just slightly above expectations, it could still mean the overall U.S. labor market is cooling. 📌 This can be simply viewed as three scenarios: ① Nonfarm payrolls significantly below expectations Employment cooling → easing expectations rise → BTC/ETH may continue to gain support. ② Data basically meets expectations Market can$BTC $SOL — Why the rally today? 🚀
Three forces are supporting crypto:
• Fed hike expectations cooled sharply
• Short-term Treasury yields and the dollar weakened
• Crypto liquidity improved, with strong BTC ETF inflows
Add short-covering and renewed institutional demand, and the move looks broader than simple retail hype.
Citi also lifted its 12-month BTC and ETH targets, citing stronger market activity and recovering ETF flows.
#BTC #SOL #Crypto
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge The new app has launched, but how many days will the buzz last, meow?
For $DEEP, I'm more interested in seeing its performance after going live. On September 24, DeepBook launched its trading app, with over 150,000 people already on the waiting list before launch. Previously, it mostly provided matching services for other apps; now users can trade directly. It's like moving from working behind the scenes to having a storefront of its own. But the number of sign-ups can't be taken as active users, let alone revenue. I'll be watching to see if these people actually make trades and if they come back after a few days. If they stick around, the launch will have real momentum.
Regarding $AVAX, the recent upgrade includes a change that's easy to understand. Helicon, launched on September 22, shortened the minimum staking period from two weeks to 48 hours. Funds no longer need to be locked for so long at once, which is more convenient for those needing flexible turnover. However, easier participation doesn't necessarily mean more coins will be locked. We need to see if new participants can compensate for the changes caused by the shorter period; don't assume supply will decrease just because the threshold is lower.
As for $OP, it's turning operations and maintenance into a business. On September 30, it announced providing managed operations for Soneium, handling nodes, upgrades, and fault responses. Clients can worry less about the underlying infrastructure and focus more on their own applications. What’s worth tracking is whether this service can continuously generate revenue, not just add another partner name. As for how the revenue translates into token value, we still need to watch closely; this step cannot be skipped.Big Brother Maji's Position Slight Adjustment｜Bullish Base Unchanged, Preemptive Defense Preparing for Nonfarm 🛡️
Big Brother Maji quietly adjusts his holdings again! Total exposure is 159 million USD, the overall bullish framework remains unchanged, no liquidation or reversal.
Using classic tactics of slight position reduction + lowering liquidation price, rolling adjustments to strengthen account defense, preparing for tonight's big nonfarm volatility.
• $BTC 🟡
Position reduced from 546 to 543 coins, 40X full position long unchanged
Unrealized profit expanded to 125,600 U, liquidation price lowered to 74,610.29
Further broadening the account's drawdown resistance space
• $ETH 🔵
Position almost unchanged, 34,000 coins 25X full position long continues to hold
Unrealized profit 890,200 U, the core earnings ballast of the account
Forced liquidation line lowered to 2,539.93
• $HYPE 🟢
Slightly reduced to 225,000 coins, unrealized loss narrowed to 517,300 U
No cut-loss exit, retaining this emotional position, waiting for rebound opportunity
Summary of thoughts: Optimistic about mid-term bulls, but preparing defense in advance.
Nonfarm market volatility is intense, the big players are actively widening safety buffers, not blindly holding on.
⚠️ Big players' position cases are for community review only and do not constitute investment advice; high leverage carries extremely high risk! Looking back now, I still feel a bit scared
Looking back now, I still feel a bit scared.
The "calm" before yesterday's nonfarm payroll data release was just like the sea before a storm—calm on the surface, but with turbulent currents underneath. I was holding those two long positions with 100x leverage, and no matter how high the floating profit numbers jumped, my heartbeat accelerated in sync. The moving averages were tightly converged, and the market was like a compressed spring; everyone knew it could explode at any second, but no one could predict the direction.
In hindsight, BTC's surge was indeed beautiful, with shorts completely wiped out. But if I had been greedy and held on a bit longer, a reverse spike could have wiped my account to zero instantly. High leverage is not a sign of courage, but a disregard for risk.
The scariest thing in trading is not losing money, but thinking you truly understand the market after making a profit. That night, what I won was not the market, but restraint. Now that I think about it, being able to exit proactively is more worth celebrating than catching a big surge. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, BTC has already touched around 87000, I think the truly critical time of this wave has arrived.
Just finished reviewing the nonfarm data, September added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs, significantly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate reached 4.2%. With employment data continuing to cool down, the market is now clearly starting to trade around the Fed's future policy expectations.
I consider around 87000 to be the first very important resistance level now.
Because BTC has already tested this level today, if it can truly break and hold steady in the 87000–87500 range later, the short-term structure will be much stronger. Then I will continue to watch 88000 above, and further up is the 90000 round number.
But if 87000 cannot be broken through and there are continuous spikes or rallies followed by pullbacks, then be cautious that funds may start to cash out after the news stimulus ends.
Currently, I mainly watch several positions below:
First support: around 86000.
This is the first position to observe now; as long as the price can stay stable above 86000, the short-term bullish structure is not yet broken.
Second support: 85000–85500.
If it falls back to this range, I will focus on whether funds are absorbing. If it can quickly recover here, I think it still counts as a normal pullback.
The third relatively critical position: 83500–84000.This is not a data release, it's literally an "opening a blind box"!
Good morning to all the genius traders! Woke up to a red-hot account, and the mood is definitely great!
I have 100x full-position long orders on ETH and BTC. Currently, ETH is floating with a 25% profit, BTC with a 68% profit. On the surface, it looks very promising, but inside I'm really anxious. Look at the 15-minute chart, the moving averages are all tightly converged, even tighter than 502 glue. This clearly signals the dead calm before the storm, with both bulls and bears scrutinizing for direction under magnifying glasses.
Tonight at 20:30 is the non-farm payroll data, with expectations ranging from 35,000 to 180,000 — such a huge span it could fit a whole cow! This is not economic data, it's literally "Schrödinger's cat." Regardless of the outcome, in such extreme volatility, preserving profits is the real deal. I'm cashing out first; you all do as you please! #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $MANA When you see all the posts are bullish, you know it's time to short $NIGHT closing has surpassed the high point
The short-term cycle can be viewed as continuing upward for now. The high and low points in the previous few hours were 0.04878 / 0.043204 USDT, and the just-closed 5-minute candlestick is at 0.049945 USDT. The price position is high, and the close has surpassed the previous high point; this fact itself does not rely on volume to be proven.
The recent 15-minute volume is noticeably more active than in the previous few hours. This indicates increasing attention but does not change the fact that the price has already surpassed the high point. If the close later falls back below the previous high point, the idea of an upward continuation must be withdrawn.$SAND this fee rate seems to have trapped the short whale, but at this position, I don't dare to go long yet, so I'll wait and see Let's first check the high, low, and close for this XRP candle. Is the XRP 1.550 candle deep enough?
Yesterday's low was 1.474, the high touched 1.514 but didn't break through, closing at 1.487. Today opened at 1.487, with a high of 1.550, a low of 1.479, and the current price around 1.535. Volume slightly increased.
1.550 above is still resistance; above that is 1.561–1.630. If 1.479 below breaks again, it's likely to see 1.474 first, and if that breaks, then look at 1.466.
In the short term, watch if 1.487 can hold. If it doesn't hold, treat it as a rebound digestion and don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 1.479 can support; if it can't, consider reducing your position. $XRP $ATOM Ecosystem Logic: The Transformation from "Technical Ideal" to "Commercial Reality"
The core contradiction of ATOM has always been: the Cosmos ecosystem is thriving, but ATOM token holders hardly capture any value. Recent progress shows that the project team is trying to fundamentally solve this problem.
1. Accelerated Institutional Adoption: In September 2026, Cosmos launched the Partner Network, partnering with 17 institutions (including BitGo, Galaxy Digital, Blockdaemon, etc.) to help banks move tokenized deposit projects from pilot to production. Wells Fargo plans to launch a cross-border tokenized deposit platform based on Cosmos technology in fall 2026.
2. Clear Technical Roadmap: Cosmos's 2026 roadmap focuses on performance improvements, interoperability expansion, and enterprise-grade features. Key advances include: doubling TPS on internal testnets; upcoming production deployment of IBC v2 light client, aiming to connect Solana and all EVM/L2 chains.
3. Tokenomics Reform Advancement: Cosmos has commissioned Gauntlet to redesign ATOM's tokenomics. The core direction is to reduce unnecessary inflation and establish a truly value-creating economic model. Osmosis has proposed canceling new ATOM minting and instead using protocol revenue to repurchase on the open market.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#OKX全球资产便利店 Recently watching $BTC, I've had a thought:
Thinking of adding more only if $BTC drops to 82k or 81k.
If it drops a bit more, I'll go long.
But waiting and waiting, it just doesn't drop to the level I want.
Now that I think about it, it seems I'm no longer watching the market, but waiting for the market to cooperate with me.
When it rises, I think it will fall back; when it consolidates, I also think it will fall. My mind has already fixed on that script.
Now I've realized:
Trading can be planned, but you can't be obsessed.
If the level you want to wait for doesn't come, maybe that trade just isn't meant for you.
Missing out is missing out, but you can't short just hoping for that level,
That was the problem before as well. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data just dropped a bombshell on the market!
September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with expectations at 90,000, and the previous value was sharply revised down. The private sector added 46,000 jobs, expected was 85,000, also disappointing. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3%. The US job market really can't hold up this time, showing a broad cooling.
This data basically means no more rate hikes to consider, and expectations for rate cuts are taking off. The dollar is weakening, and funds will definitely flow into risk assets, with the crypto market naturally taking the lead.
BTC is currently priced at 86,806, with a high spike up to 87,194. Looking at the daily chart, it has rebounded sharply from the previous 57,750, now firmly holding above MA5 and MA10. The MACD shows a golden cross with volume increase, indicating a very clear bullish trend. The 4-hour support has been raised to 77,876, and the 1-hour support is at 84,602.
On the 15-minute chart, it is a bit overbought at high levels now, with MACD momentum shrinking, so a short-term pullback to digest profits is needed.
Better to wait for a pullback to the 84,600-85,000 range (around the 1-hour support and moving averages) before scaling into longs, targeting a breakout above the previous high at 87,300.
If you want to short for a quick trade, you can try a light position around 87,200-87,400, aiming to catch a 15-minute level retracement and then exit. Stop loss must be set if it breaks 87,500.
In summary, the big trend is definitely bullish. Hold your spot positions well, control leverage on contracts, and don’t get shaken out by short-term volatility.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Personal opinion, not investment advice $BTC The probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped to 16%, and the number of hikes within the year has been pushed down to less than one.
The interest rate has been suppressed a bit too harshly by the bears this round.
So, the current rebound in the US stock market feels somewhat mechanical to me. Previously, value stocks were oversold due to the pressure from interest rates, and once rates ease, they naturally start to recover first.
Non-farm payrolls themselves are not the sole factor determining the Fed's decisions, but under the current interest rate expectations, once the data is released, how else can the market trade?
Interest rates can only continue to be pushed down, and the US stock market can only rebound.
As for whether it will continue afterward depends on whether there is anything new that pushes interest rates back up.$BTC TOKEN2049 Singapore Conference will be held on October 7-8 at Marina Bay Sands. The conference is expected to attract over 25,000 participants from 160 countries worldwide, including heads of exchange projects such as OKX, Binance, Hyperliquid, senior executives from traditional Wall Street institutions like BlackRock and Nasdaq, as well as well-known macro traders and VC investors like Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee, AI and Meme track project teams, and industry KOLs. The speeches are expected to focus on on-chain DEX tracks, AI Agent on-chain intelligence, RWA real-world asset tokenization, Federal Reserve macro cycles and crypto market trends, stablecoins, global regulatory policies, and new mechanisms for primary launches of Meme coins. In terms of market trends, the conference acts as a short-term sentiment catalyst; before the event, the market is prone to preemptive bullish speculation causing oscillations with a strong bias. During the conference, the market will fluctuate following the sentiment of key speakers, but after the conference, it is highly likely that bullish expectations will be realized and prices will retreat. The medium- to long-term trend of crypto assets will still be dominated by macro fundamentals such as US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve monetary policy. $ETH $ZEC $SAND $ETH $ZEC
SAND surged again on the back of the positive non-farm payroll data, reaching a high of 0.07120, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 50%.
On the 15-minute candlestick chart, after a violent rally, it oscillated at a high level; after hitting the high point, the MACD red bars turned green, and the KDJ turned downward. The price retraced to the short-term moving average, with 0.07120 becoming a strong resistance in this rally.
Currently, it is in a high-level divergence phase after a big rise. With the positive non-farm data realized, there is a need for profit-taking. Holding the moving average support still offers a chance for a second rally; once the moving average is broken, a correction will begin.
A. Hold the moving average support and challenge the 0.07120 high again
B. Profit-taking at the high level leads to a gradual price pullback
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Where are the risks hidden when $ENA yield narratives attract funds?
ENA still holds a relatively high market value in the market rankings. Yield products tend to expand rapidly during high demand phases, but hedging costs, funding rates, and redemption pressures can alter actual yields.
If the scale continues to grow while the sources of yield narrow, I will pay more attention to whether the mechanism can operate under pressure.Bitcoin peaked near 86900, right at the pressure zone repeatedly emphasized in the previous round. Now, the dividing line between bulls and bears is just one number: 86600.
If it holds steady, the short-term structure remains relatively strong, and the next step is likely to test 89000; if it doesn't hold, it will most likely return to the familiar consolidation range. The strategy at this position leans more towards taking profits rather than attacking—gradually reducing positions above 87000, cutting one batch for every thousand increase, lowering the overall position to below 40%.
At this stage of the market, it's no longer the time to aggressively buy at low levels. Take profits while it rises, and leave the remaining positions for the trend, also keeping an exit route for yourself. $BTC $SOL$QNT — $292
Quant pulled back to $292 after a 530% two-week surge from $59 to $369. Whale wallets hit a record 645 transactions above $100K in a single day.
The founder's wallet moved $6.97M in QNT after years of inactivity.
$430 is the critical resistance. Analysts floating $2,000 targets.
#StrategyEndsBuyTheDip Today's core market keywords: Nonfarm cooling, interest rate expectations shifting.
The US September nonfarm employment data was below expectations, and the combined nonfarm job additions for July and August were revised down by 60,000, indicating that the US labor market is gradually cooling.
This directly changes the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that the weak employment data makes a Fed rate hike in October "unlikely," and traders are also reducing their bets on an October rate hike.
The market transmission logic is changing:
Cooling employment → Reduced rate hike pressure → US Treasury yields fall → Dollar pressure eases → Risk assets benefit.
This is also an important background for BTC's recent rebound.
However, the market is not without disagreement.
Fed's Logan still believes the FOMC should continue raising rates and suggests a target increase of at least 50 basis points, indicating internal controversy over inflation risks.
Besides interest rates, the energy market is also a variable.
The EU is discussing releasing diesel inventories; France proposes Europe release 50 million barrels of diesel, and IEA member countries release 50 million barrels of crude oil to ease energy supply pressure.
If energy prices fall, it helps reduce inflation pressure; if oil prices rise again, it may limit the Fed's room to pivot.
For the crypto community, the next focus is on three directions:
First, whether US Treasury yields can continue to decline;
Second, whether the dollar enters a correction;
Third, whether BTC ETF funds continue to flow in.
Additionally, the Ethereum EIP-8363 proposal has been withdrawn and will not enter Hegotá ⚠️ $ETH this market is getting more and more interesting.
Ethereum has been consolidating sideways continuously, repeatedly testing $2730 but being pushed back, with rebound highs steadily decreasing, indicating that selling pressure above remains obvious.
On the other hand, the lows have not moved down correspondingly; around $2680 there has consistently been capital support.
📉 Resistance above is gradually lowering
📈 Support below is continuously rising
🔥 Volatility range is rapidly contracting
This "lower highs, higher lows" compression pattern often signals that a big move is brewing.
Next, focus on $2650.
If there is a quick spike down and a break below this level, bears may release further pressure, making the $2550–$2500 zone worth close attention.
Of course, if $2730 is broken out with volume, the entire bearish structure needs to be reassessed.
Don’t rush to guess the direction; wait for the market to choose the answer itself.
#ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #OKX #TradingUS September nonfarm payrolls only +29,000, far below the expected 89,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, August was revised down by about 29,000. Employment cools down, rate cut expectations rise, $BTC data later touched about 87,200, now about 86,900 (Beijing 21:05, Coinbase). For the positive news to take effect, first watch the US Treasury and US stock market opening; only holding above 87,000 counts as a real breakthrough. #Nonfarm #PCE month-on-month turns negative, GDP growth slows to 1.5% Going all in to short $ZEC 🤑🤑🤑
Although the nonfarm payroll data is weak 🤔🤔🤔
The probability of a rate hike in October has decreased 👿👿👿
Market manipulators, don’t you like to pump? 😂😂😂
Come on! Keep pumping! My position is right here!!
I beg you to just liquidate me directly. 😏😏😏
But the more it’s times like this
The less I want to chase longs
Just entered, currently at a floating loss
Only about a dozen points
No big deal
Today I just want to see
Those who chased the rally today
Will probably start feeling bad soon
When it goes up, it’s like there’s no ceiling
When it comes down, it won’t negotiate with you slowly either
Let it perform a bit more
It’s actually much more comfortable here
It’s already been smashed down nearby
50x leverage
Waiting for profits already over 800%+
Everyone thinks it can keep flying
Now?
What needs to be vomited out still has to be vomited
So sometimes the market is like this
When it’s rising, everyone thinks they understand it
When the real top starts to loosen
Everyone runs faster than the next
I’m not interested in chasing at this position for now
Market manipulators, keep pumping!
Don’t stop!
I actually want to see
Whether this time you liquidate me
Or you yourself pump high then start dumping!!
All in right here!
I beg you to keep pumping!!
Not telling you to follow my trade
In the end, who gives up first
Let the candlestick speak for itself
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% ETH: $3,000 could become a turning point
On the daily chart, ETH/USDT is forming an upward impulse after a decline.
However, the price is now approaching a zone that previously acted as a supply cluster.
Therefore, further growth does not necessarily mean a continuation of the trend: the market may first take liquidity above local highs and then move into a correction.
The main resistance zone is $3,000–3,268.
$ETH
#USNFPDataCools $SOL Support Hold Bullish Momentum Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Long
Entry: 122.20–122.70
SL: 120.90
TP1: 123.80
TP2: 125.20
TP3: 127.00
SOL is holding above the 121.50–122.00 support zone after a strong upside move, showing buyers remain in control near the entry area. A sustained hold above support can open the path toward the 123.80 resistance and higher targets, with momentum favoring continuation.
Buy and Trade $SOL
#USNFPDataCools $SAND originally had a take-profit set at 0.0695
Later, I saw many orders placed at 0.07
Thinking the market maker would eat those, I changed it to 0.072
But it only reached 0.071, what a pity
In the end, the closing price was even lower than the initial setting
The direction was right, but I was still greedy, cutting the profit in half🎉【Day 387 of Dollar-Cost Averaging: Working Hard at My Cousin's Wedding, Getting 'Backstabbed' by BTC and the Groom】
Today was a day of intense hard work at my cousin's wedding! From the morning's bride pickup and blocking the door, to running around all afternoon handing out cigarettes and pouring drinks, my legs barely felt like mine anymore.
Then, just as I was exhausted and hiding behind the Red Double Happiness backdrop to catch my breath, my phone dinged in my pocket—my steadfast 0.1U per hour dollar-cost averaging bot made its scheduled deduction.
I opened the app for a quick look and suddenly the wedding candy in my hand didn’t taste sweet anymore; the market’s flavor was far more enticing:
📈 Total days of DCA: 387
💰 Holdings: 0.0093153 BTC
⚡ Trigger count: 7,628 times (this bot is more dedicated than me clocking in at work)
📊 Average price: 86,896 (BTC hit a new high again, 7.48% return, 378 yuan profit, just enough to give my cousin a big red envelope!)
Wishing my cousin a happy wedding!
See, while everyone’s joyfully celebrating on the red carpet in real life, BTC is quietly powering up on the candlestick chart. That’s dollar-cost averaging for you—whether I’m delivering takeout or serving plates at a hometown hotel, it’s silently building my future confidence.
$BTC $ETH Direction: Short
· Entry: Around 2,760 - 2,780
· Stop Loss: 2,800
· Take Profit: 2,720 / 2,680
· Position: Light position, strictly with stop lossThe six major sects are not besieging Bright Summit! Are they besieging Chongqing instead?
Going out to play is never as comfortable as staying at home 😌
Didn't buy Bitcoin during the day, just waited for the 8:30 PM non-farm payroll data, and it suddenly shot up. It's not that I couldn't afford 85,000 in the afternoon, but 87,000 at night is even less cost-effective 😅
Superman 100U dollar-cost averaging $BTC, Day 49, purchase price: $86643.36, purchase amount: 0.00115Just after the major non-farm payrolls were announced, the CME rate hike probability website crashed again. Now it finally refreshed, showing the October rate hike probability has indeed dropped to the teens, closing at 16.1%.
This probability basically defines the minimum probability range for no rate hike in October, but as always, maintaining a no rate hike probability for over 20 days from now is still too long. The Federal Reserve will not tolerate such market consensus lasting too long.
So, the fastest scenario is that some information will come out next week to push the October rate hike probability back up, and then it will be pushed down again closer to the 10.26 FOMC meeting.Information Screening: The market is full of news, learn to filter out the noise📰
Every day, a large amount of information floods the market, most of which are just short-term emotional disturbances.
Realistic Dilemma:
Immediately increase positions when seeing good news, panic sell when seeing bad news;
Get information from social group short videos, lacking independent verification;
Mistake short-term news for signals of long-term trend changes.
Two optional paths:
Path A: Only track core macro information of $BTC and $ETH, reduce browsing fragmented social group messages.
Path B: When seeing hot news, first observe the capital reaction on $CRV and MKR market, do not impulsively act immediately.
News-driven market moves are mostly short-lived, do not let short-term news change your long-term holding framework.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The short-selling funding rate for $SAND is ridiculously high, annualized over 1000%. The 24-hour trading volume suddenly surged to 1.7e, making it popular. Currently, it has risen 56%. There is support during short-term declines, so it can't fall much further. Could it suddenly spike to over 0.1 like that coin did half a month ago? Right now, the short positions dominate the long-short ratio. If I were the market maker, I would definitely pump it hard and aggressively absorb the short sellers' chips. Let's see how it goes later; I'll wait and watch for now and dare not open a position.OKB was still below 122.3 yesterday, but today it directly spiked to 122.9.
Yesterday's low was 120.5, the high touched 122.3 but didn't break through, closing at 121.51. Today it opened at 121.52, with a high of 122.9, a low of 120.76, and the current price is about 122.53. Volume has increased.
122.9 above is the immediate resistance. If it breaks below 121.52, it’s likely to first see 120.76, and then further down to 120.5.
In the short term, watch if it can hold around 122.5. If it can’t hold, treat it as a pullback after a breakout and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 121.52 can hold as support; if not, consider reducing your position. $OKB The phrase "synchronous outflow" doesn't add up.
Farside 10/1 COMPLETE: BTC +102.7 million, ETH −55.4 million, SOL −1.1 million. The yellow label still lists outflow side by side, but BTC had already flowed back that day.
The room is debating whether it's a mass exodus or waiting for the non-farm payrolls—I’m breaking down the accounts: IBIT held +195.6 million that day, while ETH side is still leaking. The synchronous narrative is already cracking.
Do you accept this layer?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Currently, from the market perspective, both gold and Bitcoin have returned to the small highs caused by the positive PCE data on Wednesday night. If the US stock market cannot effectively break through after opening later, there might be some changes over the weekend closure until next week. The duration of this positive effect is somewhat short.