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Anthropic is targeting an IPO in mid-November, with a potential valuation reaching up to $2 trillion — the formal roadshow is expected to start as early as the week of November 9, with trading anticipated to begin before Thanksgiving (November 26).
The May 2026 funding round was completed at a valuation of $965 billion, raising $65 billion.
The most astonishing figure here is, of course, the "$2 trillion" valuation — this means that Anthropic as a single company would be approaching the annual GDP of many countries.
But beyond the numbers, what’s noteworthy is the timing it represents: AI leading companies moving from "private funding" to "public listing" signifies that this sector is officially entering the "public market pricing" phase.
The AI narrative is shifting from "bets by a few funds" to "stocks available for everyone to buy."
Previously, we discussed how AI consumes massive amounts of computing power and electricity, with energy becoming a bottleneck, and related infrastructure stocks (like optical interconnects) benefiting — the real fuel behind this is such massive capital expenditure.
The IPO is a key answer to the question of "where the money comes from" in this chain:
The primary market funds are no longer sufficient, so money must be raised from the secondary market.
And every additional penny poured into AI increases the demand for computing power, electricity, and the infrastructure to "measure and settle computing power."After 10 days of trading, today felt like the most exhausting session.
$BTC survived a $2.5K drop and is still down around $700. If $85.2K fails as support, the next consolidation zone could be $83K–$85K.
$ETH is around $2,702. I opened a short on 20 ETH with a max loss of $1,500. Thankfully, ETH weakened enough for me to exit safely and enjoy a pork knuckle meal. 😅
If $2,700 breaks, the next range to watch is $2,650–$2,695.
$BTC
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge There won't be much news before the 14th, but from PCE to non-farm payrolls, the expectations for rate hikes have been continuously weakening. The market momentum has mostly been consumed during this period, especially last night's US stock market, which felt a bit breathless. My personal expectation is to look for a pullback and bearish trend before October 12, roughly back to around 81000. It's the weekend now, so there's not much liquidity, but market makers tend to use liquidity to sweep stops back and forth, especially with $ETH. I suggest not trading during the weekend. However, I think $HYPE is worth watching; I plan to short one position around 89.4 over the weekend 8 million ZRO tokens, 14.98 million USD, have entered Coinbase Prime.
This wallet received 40.57 million tokens from a LayerZero strategic partner a year ago, and now less than one-fifth has moved.
Honestly, my first reaction to this kind of news is not panic, but fatigue.
Tokens from a strategic partner, unlocked and held for a year, are now moving to exchanges—if you say this is preparation to dump, the evidence is insufficient; if you say it’s completely fine, that doesn’t seem right either.
But the direction is clear: this batch of chips has started moving.
The biggest mistake retail investors make is seeing the words "transferred to exchange" and immediately imagining a crash, then nervously selling at a loss.
My attitude: don’t panic, but take note.
If these two addresses continue moving tokens to exchanges later, then it’s worth paying serious attention. For now, treat these 8 million as a signal, not a conclusion.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $ZRO BTC briefly surged to 87,000 last night, then was sharply pushed back to 84,600.
This is already the third failed attempt to break 87,000.
The first was in late September. The second was on September 24, triggering $280 million long liquidations within 4 hours. The third was last night—despite poor employment data, a significant cooling of rate hike expectations, a broad rally in US stocks, and Nvidia hitting a new high.
All the positive factors were given to you, yet you still can’t hold above 87,000.
This is the real question that needs to be clearly understood today.
📊 Let’s first clarify the current market status
Price position: BTC is oscillating around 84,000, having experienced a rollercoaster this week from “82,000 → 87,000 → 84,000.” On the 4-hour chart, the price is just being suppressed by the EMA50 (83,986 USD).
Key levels: Resistance above lies between 85,500 and 87,300 USD, where Glassnode data shows a dense wall of sell orders. Support below is at 77,200 USD, which is the average holding cost line of active investors (True Market Mean); breaking below this could weaken the current upward momentum.
Capital flow: The good news is ETF net inflows have returned, with $102.7 million net inflow on October 1, of which BlackRock’s IBIT alone took $195 million. Q3 ETF net inflows reached $6.34 billion, a quarterly high for the year. The bad news is—after nearly $1 billion single-day inflow on September 21, the inflow pace has clearly slowed, dropping to $24 million on September 28.
Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 72 to 67, indicating cooling greed.
Macro: September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with the previous two months revised down by 60,000, and unemployment rising to 4.2%. Market pricing for October rate hikes plunged from 70% a week ago to less than 20%.
🔍 But here’s an overlooked detail
Everyone is focused on the cooling rate hike expectations, thinking it’s bullish.
But look at the 10-year US Treasury yield—after the nonfarm data release, it briefly fell from 5.34% to 5.15%, then quickly rebounded above 5.27%.
What fell has all risen back.
What does this mean? The market verbally says "rate hike expectations are cooling," but the bond market votes with its feet saying "long-term rates won’t come down."
BTC’s current rebound has never followed FedWatch; it follows US Treasury yields. If Treasury yields don’t fall, BTC can’t rise. It’s that simple.
🎯 Three scenario simulations
Scenario A: Hold above 85,000, break out above 87,000 with volume
Probability: Medium
Trigger: ETF net inflows exceed $100 million daily for more than 3 consecutive days, or new institutional allocation announcements (e.g., pension funds, sovereign wealth funds) appear.
Direction: Target 90,000–92,000.
How to act: Don’t chase at 86,000. Wait for price to break above 87,000, then retest 85,000 without breaking it, and volume to significantly increase before entering on the right side. Only a breakout with volume counts; a low-volume fake breakout will just cause you losses again.
Warning signal: If price stands above 87,000 but ETF inflows shrink, it’s likely another fake breakout.
Scenario B: Range-bound between 82,000 and 87,000
Probability: Relatively high
Trigger: ETF inflows and outflows alternate, no new macro variables. Market enters a "waiting for the next catalyst" mode.
Direction: Continue bottoming. Don’t expect direction; wait for the next variable.
How to act: Buy low, sell high within the range. Buy near 82,000, reduce near 86,000. But honestly, most people aren’t suited for frequent trading in a choppy market—the small spreads you earn won’t cover fees and emotional costs.
More pragmatic approach: If your position is heavy, reduce some above 85,000; if light, consider buying near 82,000. Don’t do anything in the middle.
Scenario C: Break below 82,000 support
Probability: Low but must be guarded against
Trigger: 10-year Treasury yield surges back above 5.4%, or geopolitical conflicts escalate, pushing oil prices up and triggering new inflation concerns.
Direction: Retest 78,000–80,000, extreme case down to 77,200 (True Market Mean support).
How to act: Cut losses decisively if it breaks below 82,000; don’t fantasize. Wait for price to stabilize and climb back above 82,000 before considering entry. 77,200 is the bottom line; breaking it means a new story.
Have you noticed—each of the three attempts had stronger bullish factors than the last.
The first relied on sentiment, the second on technicals, the third on employment data collapse + halved rate hike expectations + Nvidia new highs.
The result? Each high was lower than the previous one.
In technical analysis, this is called a "lower high"—usually a sign of trend exhaustion, not accumulation.
Of course, on-chain data offers some comfort: about 50,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges in the past two weeks, exchange balances dropped to a six-year low, and supply is tightening. This means selling pressure is decreasing.
But supply tightening is just a condition; demand explosion is the catalyst. Without new funds coming in, tighter supply just means "no one is selling," not "many are buying."
Don’t mistake "no sellers" for "buyers present."
Stop focusing on FedWatch. Focus on the 10-year Treasury yield.
If Treasury yields don’t fall below 5%, BTC hitting 87,000 is a dream. If Treasury yields surge back above 5.4%, 82,000 won’t hold.
The real scenario isn’t in the Fed’s words, but in bond market prices.
$BTC $SPCX $NVDA #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Employment data only increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, which should have been positive for gold.
But after a brief surge, gold prices turned down, closing down 0.95% at $4162, while silver fell 1.24% to $60.4.
The issue is not with the data, but with the bond market.
The 10-year US Treasury yield earlier this week hit the highest level since 2002, with the 30-year around 5.57%.
Gold does not yield interest, and with risk-free yields at a more than twenty-year high, the holding cost is too high.US September Nonfarm Payrolls: 29,000. Expected 90,000. A full threefold difference.
July and August data were also revised down by a total of 60,000 jobs. Unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Once the data was released, CME FedWatch showed the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October jumped directly from 78% to 86.2%. Traders no longer fully price in at least one more rate hike this year.
What about the US stock market? The Dow rose 0.49%, the S&P 0.74%, and the Nasdaq 1.19%.
NVIDIA hit an intraday all-time high, with a market cap approaching $5.7 trillion, less than $300 billion away from $6 trillion.
And Bitcoin?
At the moment the data came out, BTC briefly surged to $87,000, then — pulled back. Currently at $84,643, down 0.7% in 24 hours.
Employment data is positive, US stocks went crazy, but Bitcoin got stuck.
This is no coincidence. Looking at these three sets of data together, you’ll find a very clear pattern.
📊 Data ① — Employment: The positive impact has landed, but was eaten up by AI stocks
Don’t rush to celebrate.
September nonfarm payrolls of 29,000 looks like a “positive for risk assets,” right? Poor employment → Fed won’t dare to hike → loose liquidity → positive for Bitcoin.
But the market didn’t react that way.
Nasdaq rose 1.19%, NVIDIA hit an all-time high. The liquidity expectations brought by employment data were all intercepted by AI stocks.
Funds didn’t flow into Bitcoin, but into NVIDIA, Tesla, SpaceX, Broadcom, ASML. All gains are AI narratives.
What’s more painful: The Fed just hiked 25 basis points last month to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in three years, still hawkish. Even if no hike in October, the probability of at least one more hike this year remains 86.8%.
Employment data is positive. But Bitcoin didn’t benefit from this positive.
📊 Data ② — Fund flows: Inflowing, but not enough to break $87,000
Look at ETF funds.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows of $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days, the strongest wave this year. On Wednesday, there was a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending the streak.
But on Thursday it immediately recovered: single-day net inflow of $103 million, BlackRock IBIT led with $196 million net inflow, total net asset value $109.3 billion.
Funds are not systematically withdrawing. But the willingness to chase above $85,000 is clearly insufficient.
IBIT alone carried $196 million, other ETFs either zero inflow or net outflow. Fidelity FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $60.73 million.
This is not a broad-based inflow, it’s BlackRock alone holding the line.
📊 Data ③ — Price: $87,000 is an iron ceiling, three attempts all failed
Technicals are more straightforward.
BTC tried three times to break $87,000, three failures. Formed a small double top structure. $85,000 became resistance, $82,000-$83,000 became support.
Glassnode data is even harsher: the amount of long-term holder coins clustered in the $84,000 to $85,000 range is higher than any other price range. Price must break and hold above this range for the rally to continue.
More worrisome: BTC’s Bull Score remains at 90/100 but shows signs of fatigue. Profit-taking activity is increasing, derivatives trading volume hit one of the largest single-day records in 2026.
Translation: Someone is selling.
🔗 Putting the three data sets together, the conclusion is one sentence:
Employment positive → eaten by AI stocks
Fund inflows → just enough to support, not enough to break through
Price → $87,000 iron ceiling, break means $90,000+, no break means continued consolidation
💡 So what are we waiting for now?
Waiting for a catalyst. Either continuous large ETF inflows (not $100 million level, but over $500 million), or macro unexpectedly positive (e.g., Fed clearly signaling pause in hikes).
Before that, $82,000 to $87,000 is the current battleground.
Bitcoin isn’t not rising, it just can’t rise.
It’s not that no one is buying, it’s that buyers aren’t aggressive enough.
🎯 To be honest.
Last night’s data combination, in any normal market environment, Bitcoin should have broken $87,000.
But it didn’t.
What does this mean? It means the market is waiting for a stronger signal. Not the “poor employment” old positive that’s been digested repeatedly, but the moment the Fed truly turns.
AI stocks are absorbing all liquidity, Bitcoin is waiting in the cracks.
This is the real current pattern.
$87,000, break means $90,000+. No break, continue grinding.
$BTC $ETH $NVDA #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% After the weak data release, $BTC dropped sharply from a high of $86,700 to around $84,000, and $ETH weakened in sync, with prices falling from the intraday high of $2,779 to around $2,648.
The market logic is that although the weak nonfarm data reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike in October (from 29% down to 17%), traders are more concerned about the economic outlook weakening, which suppresses corporate profits and risk appetite.$MSTU Damn it! It's quiet outside, the market is dog-eat-dog, this kind of scene old pros have seen many times.
MSTU was strongly pulled up to 43.958, but the volume can't keep up, clearly a manipulative dealer fishing with a sickle. Don't get carried away, chasing longs at this level is just feeding bullets to the dealer. Pure capital-driven pull, no news support, basically a bull trap before a shakeout.
I'm placing a SELL order, shorting near 43.95, stop loss must be set at 45.2; if it breaks 45, I'll admit defeat. Downside targets are first 41, then more aggressively 39.5.
If you want to follow, set up an ambush on the lower market card, don't ask me why, just market intuition. Do you dare to catch this knife? 👇👇👇
(This is only a personal review, not investment advice, control your position size and always set stop loss)Good morning! After making trades, I actually feel that waking up early every day is very fulfilling. The first thing I do when I open my eyes in the morning is definitely to check the market. For me, trading is also a form of inner growth. I am a fire sign and a bit impatient, but in the trading market, I simply can't be impatient at all, so it really tests my overall emotional stability. Recently, I made a few trades. I was holding positions, but actually, this is unhealthy. If you do short-term trading, you need a short-term approach; if you do long-term trading, you need a long-term mindset. I happened to be stuck in the middle, doing short-term trades while thinking about long-term profits, which led to me enduring these trades with difficulty. I'm very grateful that I didn't fall victim to this wrong approach. Buffett once said, "If I knew where I was going to die, I would never go there." So before trading, you must calmly analyze and avoid big pitfalls first. Then think about how to earn your share. Doing the right key things, with a broad vision combined with imaginative and proactive thinking beyond conventional frameworks, is ten thousand times better than shooting blindly. Because the market is always there, don't rush; what is yours will eventually be yours. Maintaining a good mindset and trying to be at ease in the market is always better than just holding positions stubbornly. Wishing everyone all the best and continued success!Nonfarm payrolls shocked, the October rate hike is basically killed, but don't rush to celebrate a fully dovish outcome. Bitcoin once surged past 87,000 and closed near 86,600, up about 3% for the day; Ethereum falsely broke through 2,770 but then dropped back to 2,660, closing down on the daily chart. Macro gave some sweetness, but liquidity didn't catch it, which is the biggest divergence between the two. The stock market ate it all up, with the Nasdaq hitting another intraday all-time high, and the Dow and S&P following suit. Gold couldn't hold at the 4,220 level and fell back to around 4,140. US Treasury yields rose instead of falling, which is the most worrisome signal in this rebound. Weak nonfarm payrolls changed expectations for October but not for December. $BTC $ETHOn Saturday morning, I checked the BTC perpetual contracts thoroughly — spot price around 84635, contracts close at 84591, funding rate slightly negative at about -0.0013%, with open interest nominally still at 2.42 billion. Slightly lower compared to Shanghai's opening at 85330 at midnight, daily high touched 85510, daily low 83884.
The funding rate hasn't turned positive, and OI hasn't clearly dropped; short-term focus is whether it can hold above the daily high of 85510; if it falls back to around 84100, don't try to hold hard. $ETH is hovering near 2681, rhythm not yet aligned.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #ContractMarket #FundingRate #SaturdayMorning #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice, the market carries risks, please trade cautiously. Bitget这次3.87亿美元被盗，真正值得关注的已经不只是“又一次交易所被黑”，而是加密资产跨链洗钱和链上追踪正在进入AI对AI的阶段。
Chainalysis披露，9月24日攻击发生后，仅3小时内，约3.87亿美元就通过23笔转账快速分散到四条链：以太坊占49.7%，XRP占40.8%，Zcash占7.6%，TRON占1.8%。随后攻击者又利用跨链流动性协议，把XRP转换成BTC，数千万美元在大约一天半内继续流转，最终进入目前仍被监控的攻击者BTC地址。
这套路径很典型：先快速分散资产，再跨链转换，最后进入更难直接关联的地址。过去面对这种操作，人工追踪可能需要大量时间，但Chainalysis表示，这次利用内部AI和自动化工具，把原本超过20小时的跨链对账压缩到了10分钟以内。
这里其实出现了一个很有意思的反差：攻击者利用自动化和跨链工具加快资金转移，调查方也开始用AI加快资金追踪。加密世界的透明性正在进入一个新阶段，链上资金并不是消失了，而是在不同网络和协议之间不断改变形态。
更值得警惕的是，Chainalysis称，这起被归因于朝鲜相关攻击者的事件，使其统计的2026年朝鲜相关$CIEN AI Optical Communication Dual Leaders Brief Review: CIEN Stable Moat, LITE Strong Resilience
The explosive demand for AI computing power is driving a major upgrade cycle for global submarine optical cables. CIEN and LITE are the core dual targets in optical infrastructure, with clear complementary advantages in high and low segments.
CIEN has completed its transformation into a leader in AI network infrastructure, monopolizing 60% of the global market share for submarine cable terminal equipment. It masters core technology for ultra-long-distance high-speed transmission, with ample order backlog and visibility extending to 2028. Its performance growth is highly certain, making it suitable for medium-term stable allocation.
The upstream optical chip leader LITE has stronger resilience in its sector, deeply tied to submarine cable upgrades and AI computing interconnection demand. Technically, the daily chart has ended its adjustment and entered the main rising phase. $1002 is a key support level; stabilization there is a good entry point, with a target of $1236. A break below should trigger a stop loss.
⚠️ Note: U.S. stocks are highly volatile, with risks including overvaluation, capital expenditure shortfalls, and technical pattern failures. This article does not constitute investment advice.It's not just one person selling; several forces are moving simultaneously.
In the past week, Bitcoin whales collectively reduced their holdings by about 30,000 coins, valued at approximately $2.52 billion at the time.
But this is a statistical measure, not a specific individual dumping.
During the same period, another set of data shows that whale holdings were overall "basically flat," with significant differences among various tracking tools.$BTC In the next three months, my judgment is straightforward: October will be a time to consolidate and digest the trapped positions, and the main battlefield for this bull market rally will be in the fourth quarter and beyond. The current price is $86,800, just hitting the highest since September 23, but the real tough battle is still ahead.
First, let's look at the fundamentals. BTC surged 43% in Q3, the strongest quarter since Q4 2024, and this rally was driven by real institutional money — spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $6.3 billion in Q3, pulling this year's net flow back into positive territory, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for 80% of that. More importantly, leverage has been cleaned out: futures open interest dropped to 644,000 contracts, the lowest since January this year. Without a bunch of people adding leverage on top, the foundation of this rally is actually stable. Citi just raised their 12-month target from 82,000 to... no, actually up to 113,000, and their model's median year-end estimate is also around 98,000.
But don't get too excited yet, there's a lot of supply overhead. The $84,000–86,500 range holds about 1.39 million BTC, and $88,000–90,000 is another dense supply zone. So October will likely see repeated grinding or even a fake breakdown; only a strong volume-backed break and hold above $87,300 will truly open up space. The next target is $95,000–97,000, and beyond that is the 100,000 mark.
The key to the rhythm lies in macro factors: the Fed meeting on October 28 is the biggest quarterly variable, with the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.2% and oil prices breaking $100, all weighing on risk appetite. The support at $82,000 is the lifeline. $BTC structure has turned bullish, with the price running close to the upper edge within a narrow range. The 1-hour buy side is dominant, whale movements align with the daily trend, and pullbacks are opportunities to go long with the trend. Enter by placing an order at the Bollinger middle band at 84525.2, which coincides with the recent consolidation pivot and is the most solid position for a pullback catch. The upper target is the resistance wall at 86081.5, and the stop loss is set just below the 20-period swing low at 84375. A break below here indicates the pullback has turned into a breakdown, invalidating the bullish logic. The main risk is that the overall 24-hour trend remains weak, and net active selling in the market is negative. If selling pressure intensifies, it may first sweep downward before rebounding.Soft employment ≠ automatic long positions: wages low for five years, interest rate hikes press down about 20%, growth panic is also lining up
Nonfarm soft, participation rate rises to 61.8%, wages year-on-year about 3% (public reports about the lowest since May 2021) — more like "soft but not collapsing," not an overnight crash. OKX BTC≈84600, ETH≈2680, ZEC≈1319 (ZEC retreated about 4% from the Asian open at around 1372), don't just look at the big coins for color.
My own stance (not a trade call): ① October maintains narrative dominance (publicly about 82%) ≠ immediate full risk appetite; ② weekend range about 83.9–87.2, break below 84,000 reduce risk first; ③ altcoins follow the rise but not the stability, ZEC category chases the color.
Public sources: CNBC / St. Louis Fed nonfarm interpretation, OKX spot.
Poll: A Liquidity narrative dominates first / B Growth panic more real, deleverage first / C Just defend the boundary over the weekend?Made money but feel more anxious than losing money, who understands this feeling?
Brothers, I opened my account and saw that $BCH and $SOL, these two old pals, really made me proud, but also pushed me to the edge of a cliff.
Position update:
BCH: MVP of the whole market! Full 10X leverage, entry at 261.02, mark price 313.40, unrealized profit +326.47U, ROI as high as +167.10%! Position value 1,953.68U, margin 195.37U. SOL: steady and solid! Full 20X leverage, entry at 115.63, mark price 119.03, unrealized profit +179.79U, ROI +57.12%.
$ETH: forever the drag. Full 5X leverage, entry at 2718.24, mark price 2677.44, slight loss -33.17U (-7.62%). $BCH $ETH $SOL
Clearly BCH earned 167%, SOL earned 57%, total unrealized profit over 470U, but I just can’t smile at all! Why? Because the overall margin ratio is stuck at 0.29%!
What does 0.29% mean? As long as the market makes a 0.3% spike, this 470U profit plus principal will instantly evaporate on the spot! No time to react. Having experienced big storms, from deep LTC and BCH traps, to ZEC’s resurrection, to BCH doubling now, I know too well the suffocating feeling of desperately testing the edge of liquidation.
My rational mind keeps pounding: close the position immediately! Take the profit! Pocket this 167% gain!
But the gambler’s mind is screaming: what if BCH surges to 320? What if the big bull market really comes? Wouldn’t it be a huge regret to run now?
I’m really tired of waking up in the middle of the night to check liquidation prices. This 0.29% number is like a knife hanging over my head; no matter how much I earn, it’s just a number on paper until I cash out—it’s all at the mercy of the market.
Brothers, do you think I dare to hold this position overnight tonight? Should I just clear it and sleep well? Please wake me up in the comments!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 There are indeed traders on Kalshi betting on reaching $92,000 in October, but this target appeared on October 1st, when #BTC was around 86,357, and the four-hour structure remained bullish.
Calling it a "market consensus" is not accurate.
Another contract from the same period shows that traders price the probability of reaching 90,000 this month at about 56%, reaching 87,500 at about 72%, and reaching 100,000 at only 9%.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% Just saw from mid-term intelligence brother: an old address dormant for 15.4 years since May 2011 moved, transferring 20.43 $BTC, about 1.7 million USD,
From early mining earnings of Slush Pool, fees less than 1 dollar, not entering exchanges. The market is shouting Mentougou, Silk Road old coins dumping? Don't get misled.
On-chain view: no deposits, no selling, just transferred into SegWit addresses, like old miners repositioning.
Last night BTC dropped from 87,200 to 85,200, $ETH from 2,777 to 2,690, basically using data to sweep liquidity;
Plus Glassnode said the 85,000 sell wall has been absorbed by buy orders, selling pressure is decreasing, not increasing. Majhi still holds long positions of 33,950 ETH and 409 BTC.
Old coins waking up does not mean selling, hold core positions steady, bullish unchanged, waiting for upward acceleration.Nonfarm payrolls hit +29,000, crypto surged close to 87k then retraced back to 84.6k over the weekend — is the good news fully priced in or just normal digestion?
Confirmed: September nonfarm payrolls only +29,000 (consensus around 84,000–90,000), unemployment rose to 4.2%, monthly wage growth just +0.1%. Public reports show FedWatch holding around 82–83% probability, with rate hike odds down to about 18%. On OKX, BTC≈84600, 24h high about 87238, low about 83884 — bullish pulse pushed price up first, then half was given back over the weekend.
My own stance (not a trade call): ① Don’t treat "touching 87k" as a confirmed breakout, consider the weekend as digestion; ② Watch the range: whether it holds above low 84k, and if daily can reclaim 85.5k; ③ Soft employment is good for liquidity, but don’t forget growth fears — better to have less position than full.
Public sources: CNBC/BLS Nonfarm, CME FedWatch second report, OKX spot.
Poll: A Good news fully priced, wait and see / B Retracement to boundary swing / C Stay flat and avoid trading over weekend? Glassnode says BTC absorbed the major sell wall near USD 85,000, leaving thinner overhead liquidity. This may reduce short-term resistance, but I’ll watch whether BTC holds 85K before judging the breakout.
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $BTC
#USNFPDataCools
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Setting a stop loss does not mean it will be executed
On the first day of October, a $BTC short position lost 6472.
The price rose from 83123 to 87239, up more than 4000 points.
What was the stop loss price:
The stop loss was set at 85400, it should have closed at that price.
But the hand didn’t move, wanting to wait for it to drop back.
Where did it blow up:
The short position bets on a drop, the higher the price rises, the more the loss.
It didn’t close at 85400, and every jump afterward added to the loss.
The 4000 points didn’t happen all at once, it was pushed up step by step.
Once it passed 85400, this position was already out of control.
The stop loss price is just a number you wrote down in advance.
The one who presses the close button is the hand, not that number.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC I admit, I was really wrong yesterday
Just pure luck.
Went all in with 100x isolated margin,
At night $ETH just shot up for me.
Marked price went up to 2777.7
My stop loss was stuck tightly at 2778.5.
A distance of just 0.8U!
The tip of a needle almost pierced my stop loss line!
At that moment, I really didn’t even dare to breathe hard.
I thought I was going to fall.
But what happened? Fake move! All fake moves!
The manipulator touched 2777.7 then immediately smashed it, crashing all the way down!
Closed my position with profit at 2673.88 in the morning, pocketing +145.88%.
Looking at this green profit, I can’t feel happy at all
Only fear afterward, 100x leverage, just 0.8U away from zero.
This time the manipulator spared my life, but next time?
I really can’t play like this anymore, respect the market, everyone take this as a warning.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously experiencing outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm.
The market has already given a real signal: both BTC and ETH spot ETFs have shifted from inflows to net outflows.
This is also the key underlying logic behind the market rallying and then retreating after last night's strong non-farm payroll data.
Previously, the market was supported by macro expectations: a cold surprise in non-farm payrolls, easing rate hike expectations, and optimistic market sentiment.
However, institutional funds have already chosen to take profits and withdraw first. Once incremental funds dry up, lacking real money to support, the bullish sentiment cannot sustain prices, leading to a typical profit-taking decline.
Current market status:
1. Institutions are taking phased profits, overall capital enthusiasm is cooling, and long momentum is somewhat exhausted;
2. Macro conditions are currently just "no longer bearish," without easing rate cuts, lacking sustained upward momentum at high levels;
3. The market bids farewell to capital-driven moves and re-enters a technical consolidation and shakeout phase.
Key levels
Resistance:
85000‑85600 short-term pressure
87000‑87500 strong stage top
Support:
82000‑82500 bull lifeline
79500‑80000 deep pullback defense level
Outlook:
With ETFs starting to see outflows, the market tends toward consolidation and shakeout; avoid blindly chasing highs. Most rebounds are repairs, not a new round of reversal.
Watch two things going forward: whether ETF redemptions will continue, and wait for CPI data to ultimately set the direction.
Brothers, what do you think next? Let's discuss in the comments…🔷 Buyback $6B, yield 5.34%
• The US Treasury bought back government bonds worth $6 billion
• 10-year yield: 5.342% (highest since April 2002)
• Investors offered $46.4B, Treasury selected $6B
• Purchased bonds from 2041-2042
• Since August 19: minimum $4B per auction
• Program: September 9 - November 4
• Reasons for increase: deficit, inflation, AI borrowing
• Purchasing Managers' Index: 77.9, oil $91
🧠 Treasury buys back $6B, but yield rises to 5.34%. Pressures BTC. But Cathie Wood: 5%+ = market health
$BTC Hardware wallets can isolate private keys but cannot identify malicious transactions for you.
Hardware wallets isolate private keys and the signing process within a dedicated device, making it difficult for attackers to directly extract keys even if the computer is infected with malware. However, users can still confirm a malicious authorization, incorrect address, or high-risk contract call on the device. Once the signature is valid, the blockchain will execute according to the rules. If the device screen does not display the complete asset, amount, and authorized party, the user is effectively blind signing. Supply chain tampering, recovery processes, and mnemonic phrase management also affect security; purchasing hardware does not equate to zero risk. For holders of $ETH, hardware wallets are best suited to solve the problem of "keys not touching the online environment," while transaction semantics rely on clear signatures, address verification, and independent validation. Security is a multi-layered structure: the device protects the keys, the wallet interprets operations, and the user decides the intent. Any layer that shifts all responsibility to another may leave exploitable gaps.
The real advantage of the device is making it harder for attackers to complete a signature without the user's knowledge; if the user actively confirms everything, the isolated chip can only faithfully execute the wrong decision. Purchase channels, firmware sources, and screen verification together determine whether this layer of isolation is ultimately trustworthy.A significant piece of news:
Tether's USDT, worth 184 billion USD, will "officially return to Bitcoin" this month — the Tether-supported project Utexo has obtained permission to issue USDT on the Bitcoin network.
The practical use is: users can privately transfer USDT, directly swap USDT with BTC, and use Bitcoin as collateral for loans, all without needing to "wrap" Bitcoin.
The key phrase here is "no wrapping."
In the past, to use stablecoins or DeFi on Bitcoin, you usually had to cross-chain wrap BTC into tokens like wBTC — and this "wrapping" step is exactly the part hackers love to attack (many theft incidents have occurred on cross-chain bridges and wrapped assets).
Utexo claims to achieve "direct use without wrapping," which, if true, means bypassing the most vulnerable link in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
An even bigger highlight is **the fact that "USDT is returning to Bitcoin" itself**.
Tether originally (in 2014) issued on Bitcoin's Omni layer, then gradually migrated to Ethereum, Tron, and other chains.
Now, after a full circle, it’s back to BTC, indicating that the Bitcoin ecosystem is regrowing the infrastructure capable of supporting stablecoins and DeFi.$BTC has not broken through the new high of 87300
The non-farm payroll data ultimately turned out to be a false alarm.
After the data was released
All the positive factors have basically been fully absorbed by the market.
The market decline is so smooth
How can one resist shorting in such a situation?
Short position floating profit is 4060.91 $USDT
The return rate has reached 137.31%
The market has already given the answer
Expectations are fulfilled, the rest is up to the trend.
Wishing everyone a happy National Day 🎉 $BTC Today's Crypto Market (October 3, 2026)
Saturday Crypto Circle: BTC holds steady, ETH is weak, AAVE quietly strong. Uptober doesn't rise every day; first shake out the chase buyers before talking.
Today's assessment:
"Uptober" starts without volume: BTC sideways, ETH one level weaker, funds hiding in AAVE/UNI/BNB, small caps start cutting yesterday's chasers.
Macro side: US 10Y ~5.24%, post-weak nonfarm rate cut expectations rebound, dollar rebounds, crypto market is not blindly bullish.
Dark lines:
BTC ETF net inflow at October start (Thursday +102 million), but ETH ETF net outflow for 3 consecutive days → institutions only recognize BTC
On-chain: dormant ETH abnormal movement on 9/30 (age consumed surged to highest since June), not immediate dumping, but old chips are moving
24h total liquidations ~150 million, longs and shorts half and half, not long squeeze, just weekend volume play
Next catalysts: 10/14 Core PCE, 10/9 BTC/ETH options expiry (~1.9 billion), 10/29 FOMC
Trading mantra:
BTC volume breakout above 85k → only then next leg; if can't break, reduce
Support at 83.9k–84k → hold
Break 83.9k / ETH 2.63k → turn weak, deleverage
$BTC $ETH #BTC dropped $2200 in 4 hours, returning to around 84,000, with over 60 million in liquidations.
The speed of this decline is faster than in the past few days, indicating leverage is being released in concentration.
84,000 is a short-term reference level, previously tested.
If it can hold here, it might just be a pullback.
If it continues downward, 80,000 to 82,000 is the next area with support.
The liquidation volume is not particularly large; 60 million is a moderate level in recent volatility.
But the direction is weak, and the decline after being rejected at 87K shows no signs of ending yet.🔻 SHORTS WORLD
🐋 Whales are heavily positioned LONG — but that doesn’t mean price must rise.
$ONE → Long/Short 142.6%
⚠️ Longs under pressure → downside risk if support breaks.
$AKE → Long/Short 318.7%
💰 Profitable longs dominate → profit-taking could trigger a pullback.
$USELESS → Long/Short 236.8%
🔥 Meme volatility is high → crowded longs can become a target for a flush.
🇺🇸 Weak U.S. jobs data is adding another macro variable to crypto volatility.
🎯 Watch support + volume +Let me see, a deep pullback has thrown so many people off the train, scared so many out of their wits.
$ETH smashed down from above 2800, now consolidating sideways around 2690. A slight 0.39% drop in 24 hours, doesn’t look like much? Behind it is a total liquidation of $339 million across the network in the past 24 hours, with $260 million in short positions liquidated, $78.93 million in long positions also liquidated, and Ethereum alone liquidated $91.89 million. This sharp plunge slapped both the bulls chasing highs and the shorts.
But what are institutions doing? Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.11 billion in Q3, marking the third highest quarterly record ever, with 10 consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA alone swallowed $83.79 million. In the past week, Ethereum whales increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH against the trend, worth $162 million. While you were shaken off the train, smart money was down below with open mouths catching chips.
Key levels are crystal clear. Breaking below 2565 means $1.238 billion in long positions waiting to be liquidated below; breaking above 2832 means $1.132 billion in short positions will explode above. At this position, both long and short triggers are set, just waiting for one candlestick to decide who dies first.
Citibank just raised the ETH target price from $2240 to $3028, citing macro improvements and ETF demand recovery. Arthur Hayes is even more aggressive, saying ETH could see $10,000 to $20,000 in this cycle.
The structure isn’t broken, the trend isn’t interrupted. Are you the one washed out, or the one staying on the train waiting for the next stop? If you can’t hold on, get off early. Stablecoin giant Circle is publicly "resisting" Europe's crypto regulatory rules.
Their argument is strong: among the world's 25 largest stablecoins by market cap, only 3 are regulated under MiCA — meaning Europe's rules have a pitifully low "reach," and the biggest stablecoins are actually outside the EU's regulatory scope.
Circle wants to push the EU to amend some of the existing rigid requirements.
The most interesting part of this is that "compliant parties are criticizing the compliance rules."
Intuitively, Circle is the "well-behaved student" who should welcome regulation; but the reality is — when regulatory rules only constrain a few, while most competitors are unregulated, being compliant becomes a competitive disadvantage.
It's like a class where only 3 students submit homework to the strictest standards, while the other 22 casually write theirs and still get high scores; naturally, those 3 will protest.
Behind this is a recurring core contradiction in stablecoin regulation:
"Who is regulated" matters more to the competitive landscape than "how strict the regulation is."
If regulation only covers issuers with an entity in the EU, offshore-issued stablecoins can enjoy freedom while capturing market share.
Circle's demand essentially calls for "rules to be applied equally to everyone" — otherwise, a strange outcome will emerge in the European market: the most compliant products will ironically be the hardest to operate.This short position on SpaceX has finally been fully closed 😮💨 Shorted at 156, fully closed at 145.85, held for about 10 days, with a single contract yield of +491.71%. The floating profit was tossed around a few times earlier, but ending near 146 as planned this time feels really good.
Interestingly, right before and after closing the position, SpaceX actually accomplished something significant: on September 28, Starship's 14th test flight truly entered orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. From a technical progress standpoint, this is definitely positive news.
However, my short position was not based on "the rocket can't fly," but rather on whether the price had already priced in too much of the good news ahead of time. Although this mission successfully reached orbit, there was still an engine failure during the process, and the mission ended earlier than planned; the reasons will need further investigation. Reuters reported that SpaceX's stock price actually dropped about 2% that day.
This actually confirms a point I've always cared about: company progress does not mean the stock price will rise every time. The market is really trading on "whether the results exceed original expectations." If everyone has already priced in the first successful orbit and smooth V3 deployment, then when the achievement is realized, as long as there is no bigger surprise or even a slight flaw, the stock price may not react or may even fall. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% ACE mid-term long position | 3-5x leverage
Position: 1000u divided into 3 batches (40%/35%/25%)
📍 Ambush zones
• First batch 40%: $0.175–0.185 (current price zone + daily EMA21 support)
• Add 35%: $0.155–0.168 (previous low platform + channel lower boundary)
• Deep water 25%: $0.135–0.150 (extreme panic zone + above historical low)
🛡️ Stop loss: $0.125 (daily close below previous low platform, -32%)
🎯 Targets
• TP1: $0.24 (+30%, reduce 40%)
• TP2: $0.32 (+73%, reduce another 35%)
• TP3: $0.45–0.60 (+143%~+224%, clear position)
Core: GameFi narrative warming up + Endurance ecosystem Game2 test progressing, but monthly 2.85 million ACE unlocking (about 1.94% supply) creates continuous selling pressure, need to wait for pullback below $0.17 before buying on dips. Binance Labs endorsement + biweekly burn mechanism provide long-term support, small market cap with high volatility, keep position small $SAND #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% HYPE October 6 unlock has flooded the screen
The calendar shows about 9.92 million tokens, roughly over 800 million USD, the largest single transaction in the entire market in October
But don't just look at the calendar
In the past few months, Labs has actually unstaked about 140,000 to 530,000 tokens per month. This is not even close to 9.92 million
This time it's a bit different
On September 30, Labs unlocked 3.75 million tokens at once, 7 times the monthly average. The co-founder said it was done OTC with institutions, not through the public market. Buyer, price, and lock-up period were not disclosed
——
First look at claims and transfers, not nominal values
"Claimable" far exceeds "actually claimed" has happened before.
OTC delayed the supply, it didn't disappear. The 6th to 7th is still a volatility window, but unlocking is not automatically bearish.
$HYPE 山寨币行情越热，越要警惕杠杆堆积后的集中回撤。
10月1日，交易员Doctor Profit发文表示，考虑到山寨币市场杠杆过高、现货交易量达到BTC的4倍，且市场情绪明显升温，他选择对部分山寨币获利了结。其中，ONDO以73%的利润卖出，HBAR和XRP也在小幅盈利后退出。
更值得关注的是他的BTC空头布局。此前他已在8.62万美元附近建立空单，并在8.65万至8.95万美元区间设置额外空单，预计BTC可能回调至7.9万美元。不过，他并未全面转向看空，BTC以及ETH、CRCL、COIN相关仓位仍然保留。
我认为，这次操作真正值得关注的不是他预测BTC会跌到哪里，而是高杠杆环境下，部分交易员已经开始主动降低山寨币风险敞口。
当资金集中涌入高波动资产，价格上涨可能伴随杠杆快速累积。一旦BTC转弱，山寨币往往更容易受到风险偏好下降和杠杆清算的双重冲击。但现货交易量达到BTC的4倍，并不能单独证明市场见顶，交易员减仓也不等于行情必然反转。
短线需要重点观察三个信号：第一，BTC能否守住关键支撑；第二，山寨币现货成交量是否持续降温；第三，合约未平仓量和资金费率是否同步回落。
如果BTC走弱、杠Floating profits just arrived and are about to fly away again, my mindset is directly tense!
Damn it!
I've been messing around with a small real account until now, currently holding a long position in $ETH, with floating profits of 8.58%.
I caught the chips at the low point in the early morning, and the highest floating profit pulled even higher early on. I was secretly happy thinking I nailed the dip buy during this pullback, planning to hold for a rebound.
Who knew the big coin $BTC rebound was weak, it couldn't push past 84688, just grinding in place. The volume to push up was totally insufficient, and the market's long-short ratio shows bears already occupy 70%.
It just keeps tugging back and forth slightly, slowly swallowing back the profits I made.
This kind of market is the most frustrating now: not enough funds to break upward, and no new lows smashed downward yet. Holding the pattern means profits can be given back anytime; pocketing gains and running risks missing a direct surge.
Many people like me have fallen in this kind of choppy market. The big picture is clear, but we die in the back-and-forth shakeouts.
The big coin is stuck jumping sideways around 84500, and the second coin ETH completely follows the big coin's rhythm, unable to form an independent trend, showing no temper at all.
#BTCHighLevelPullbackChop #ETHFollowsMarketFluctuation $BTC $ETH2026.10.3 Market continues intense dual-sided volatility with BTC/ETH/XAU analysis. Tonight, 580 million dollars vanished into thin air, 110,452 people went bankrupt to zero, with both the amount and number of volatile trades increasing. Especially, the number of people tripled, increasing by 65%, showing many impulsive traders in the market. One piece of news, one indicator anomaly, and a swarm rushes in, then the manipulative whales turn the tables and plunder, it’s basically free money; Are you the impulsive one? Haven't you learned position management yet? BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85150/78425/75475. After two consecutive days of slight bullish strength, the market surged to 87250 last night. Although it has fallen back below 85150 now, the 1h/2h/4h charts still maintain a slightly bullish trend; ETH support/resistance levels: 2750/2525/2400, following BTC’s trend; XAU surged to around 4220 last night, with an immediate recommendation to reduce positions again. You can hold a small remaining position; wait for Monday’s opportunity to see if it breaks below 4100 to test 4065 or even spike to 4015; if it doesn’t break, then above 4100 is basically stable, give the main force some time to decide; no trading over the weekend; Operation suggestions do not constitute any investment advice: BNB last night’s orders executed strategy, either loss or profit. For other orders in hand that hit breakeven, do not enter new positions, wait quietly for new low-level opportunities. It is recommended to keep no more than 2 contract orders in hand (orders without breakeven stop-loss set are counted; those with breakeven stop-loss set are not). No rush to place spot orders, set good replenishment levels.Just in September, Coinbase launched an IPO new share subscription entrance, reached a stablecoin partnership with Citi, provided access capabilities to over 1,000 community banks, and even started AI agent stock trading.
This list only makes sense when read together—it does not describe four isolated functions, but four touchpoints of the same strategy.
IPO new share subscription = bringing securities business in;
Citi stablecoin = connecting traditional bank settlements;
1,000 community banks = providing an "encrypted backend" for the offline banking system;
AI agent stock trading = making machines the main trading entity.
These four things point to the same goal: transforming Coinbase from a "cryptocurrency exchange" into a "new generation comprehensive financial infrastructure."
North Dakota banks issuing stablecoins choose Solana, tokenized stocks aim to conquer long-term holders, and traditional institutions become the main force of on-chain adoption—all talk about the same thing:
The boundary between crypto and traditional finance is being actively dismantled, and the parties tearing down the walls are large institutions, not retail investors.
But we must stay clear-headed: behind this are compliance costs, licensing battles, and lengthy regulatory communications—pushing securities, banking, stablecoins, and AI simultaneously relies not on technological superiority, but on the trust accumulated within the regulatory system. This is the hardest part of Coinbase to replicate.#US troops stationed in Iraq#
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved The more realistic tails are threefold:
First, pro-Iran militias are not disarming; the "non-state weapons" roadmap is delayed until June 30, 2027, and groups like the Hezbollah Brigades do not recognize the government's timetable at all;
Second, the Kurdish region is panicking; originally, the US military was an air defense shield, but now the skies over Erbil are open;
Third, the US has not truly left—training, intelligence, petrodollars in the New York Fed, the new consulate in Erbil, all remain. US officials themselves say "re-deployment is not ruled out."
So this withdrawal is not an imperial exit but a shift from "soldier garrison" to "leveraged garrison":
Iraq gains nominal sovereignty with the flag, the US retains the reins in energy and finance, Iran happily accepts strategic space, and ISIS remnants await the next chaos to sprout.
The oldest script in the Middle East has never been "end of war," but rather—
Foreigners leave, leaving a mess for you to handle; when chaos erupts, they come back to negotiate terms. Nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly released 📊
US nonfarm payrolls for September increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, employment clearly weakened, and expectations for an October rate hike have significantly cooled.
However, US Treasury yields and the dollar remain relatively strong; weak employment ≠ immediate rate cuts, CPI is the key.
Market: BTC stands near 87,000, ETH and SOL follow with rebounds, SOL showing the best elasticity.
The market is only mildly recovering, no big splash. High interest rate pressure remains, and based on this single nonfarm report, a full bull market cannot yet be confirmed. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Don't argue about which public blockchain is the strongest. Look at the hackers' choice: various stolen tokens are ultimately all converted into Ethereum. The ability to cross-chain handle large assets and maximize liquidity—that's ETH's hard power. $ETH The 500u challenge to 10,000u, the pullback from yesterday has already been earned back, currently over 900u! The crazy surge of BTC and ETH yesterday and the positive non-farm payroll data were all scripted! But why were BTC and ETH suppressed without breaking the previous highs? I personally believe it was profit-taking after the positive news was realized. Also, the most important and noteworthy point is that after the non-farm payroll data was released, US Treasury yields first fell, then rose again. Plus, the Middle East conflict escalated again. So I took a short position. I want to say that besides paying attention to the non-farm payroll data, we also need to watch whether US Treasury yields rise. This is the key factor affecting the bulls and bears of BTC and ETH. I closed my short position on ZEC yesterday. Holding short positions on BTC and ETH, waiting for Monday's situation to decide whether to close them!Woke up and immediately saw that Blast, which once made the points gameplay very popular, announced it is ceasing operations.
For a moment, it brought back so many memories. It used to be a top project, but because it often delayed things, it became both annoying and dragged on.
I once hoped to make big money from this project.
Because when I participated, ETH was only 2200, and by the time I could withdraw, it had surged past 4000.
It's really a pity that it all ended in a mess.Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 alongside a rising unemployment rate, causing the macro balance to tilt instantly. The most direct market split lies in the fact that the rate cut bets, which should have boosted valuations, instead saw risk assets collectively face resistance after initial gains. $BTC hit 87,220 before quickly encountering selling pressure and falling back to around 84,388, engaging in fierce contention near the EMA200; the safe-haven $XAU also slid from a high of 4228 down to 4145, while crude oil $BZ bucked the trend, rallying past 104.
US stocks showed relative restraint, with the Dow slightly pulling back and the Nasdaq barely holding its ground. This cross-market divergence sends a clear signal: capital is shifting rapidly from purely speculating on liquidity easing to defensively pricing in an economic growth slowdown.
When the cooling of employment data exceeds the buffer zone, macro funds’ expectations for lower risk-free rates are overshadowed by substantive demand concerns. Traders rushing to exit risk appetite amid liquidity stampede fears have imposed the first round of repricing pressure on crypto assets’ high beta characteristics.
In the short term, the market’s battle focus remains on $BTC’s ability to hold support at 83,186. If risk-off sentiment in US stocks and commodity markets spreads further, the crypto market may need more time to digest the valuation reappraisal brought by the macro slowdown.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The US nonfarm payrolls for September were a huge surprise, with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. At the same time, employment data for the previous two months were revised downward, clearly signaling a cooling labor market.
Personal view
This data directly crushed the market's bet on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates. US Treasury yields quickly fell, bringing short-term benefits to risk assets like BTC and gold. The market logic is simple: weaker employment reduces the necessity for rate hikes, easing fears about high interest rates.
But there is a trap here: weak employment does not mean an immediate rate cut. Inflation data has not fully declined yet, and the Fed will remain cautious, not shifting to easing based on just one nonfarm report. The short-term rebound is driven by sentiment, not a trend reversal.
In terms of operations, do not chase the highs directly. The nonfarm market is highly volatile, and short-term gains are easily followed by rapid declines. Contracts must strictly control leverage and set stop losses. Next, focus on the PCE inflation data, which is the indicator the Fed truly cares about.Brothers, my account crashed badly today, hands shaking.
$CAP: The unlucky one caught chasing highs. 20X long position, opened at 0.08210, now 0.07352, down 21%. Doubled down yesterday, today dropped 12 points, set stop loss at 0.068, will accept loss if it breaks below.
$PONS: Tried to bottom-fish halfway down the slope. 20X long position, opened at 0.5530, now 0.4461, down 38%. It has been steadily falling from 0.988, insiders are still selling, if it drops further, liquidation is coming, panicking.
$2Z: The manipulator who fell back to the starting point in three days. 20X long position, opened at 0.06180, now 0.04515, down 54%, about to liquidate. Rose for a week, fell for three days, can’t even look at the account anymore.
All three lost over 700 U, chasing new coins at highs is a death sentence. CAP stopped out, PONS hoping for a rebound, 2Z leaving it to fate. Lights off, eating noodles, brothers don’t get carried away.
#NewCoinCrash #CAP #PONS #2Z #LiveTradingDiary #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温