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$BTC has not broken the new high of 87300
The non-farm payroll data ultimately turned out to be a false alarm.
After the data was released
The positive factors have basically all been absorbed by the market.
The market decline is so smooth
How can one resist shorting in such a situation.
Short position floating profit is 4060.91$USDT
The return rate has reached 137.31%
The market has already given the answer
Expectations are fulfilled, the rest is up to the trend.
Wishing everyone a happy National Day🎉
$ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 According to a Wells Fargo report, AWS will raise the reserved GPU computing prices by 15% starting next week, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of price increases. This affects mainstream AI training chips such as H100/H200, B200/B300, following a previous price hike of 20%. From a news perspective, AI training and inference demand continues to exceed cloud providers' supply, keeping high-end GPUs scarce in the cloud. This cost pressure strengthens the value proposition of decentralized computing power networks like Bittensor as alternatives to centralized cloud computing power, constituting a structural positive for the AI and DePIN sectors. TAO is a related target in this theme.Liquidated several times, but these days I finally managed to avoid holding losing positions and strictly cut losses. Made a small profit and closed positions in 4 days, won 8 consecutive trades, and the feeling of conquering the inner demons is really great.
$ETH $ZEC $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI
Staking WLFI requires providing a reward of 50 million to 100 million USD1 to have any staking effect. Who has such a large volume to stake? Only the Trump family and the companies partnered with them.
Do you retail investors have such a large volume to stake?
This shows that the market doesn't have high trust in this coin. Everyone is selling off.
The role of WLFI is actually to pump blood into USD1,
It's a very simple principle. The Trump family stakes the chips they hold. They get rewarded every time. Their price will keep dropping.
How much can you retail investors buy? You stake it, but it has no effect at all.
And they will secretly sell as well.
So this is basically a scam.
The volume of this coin is too large. People trapped since last September are still holding.
There's nothing they can do. The Trump family has no trust. Originally, it was a partnership with Sun Yuchen to harvest.
Neither of them has a big vision.
That's how it ended up like this.
This coin is dead.
They won't pump the price for you.
Pumping the price to let you break even.
You stake your coins and can't move them, but they can pump the price while selling their coins out.
Even if they don't sell, the volume of coins Trump holds is huge. The weekly rewards he gets are more than all retail investors combined.
It's just a cycle of cutting leeks.
To keep USD1 alive. The latest round of Injective community buyback is expected to permanently burn nearly $300,000 worth of INJ. Participants receive ecosystem revenue shares based on their contributions and can claim tokenized stock rewards called Stockdrop. After the burn, circulating supply is further reduced, strengthening the deflationary framework. Compared to the $737 million market cap, the burn volume in a single round is limited, and the actual price impact depends more on the continuity of subsequent rounds.Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND Short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.2425%, price -0.05%, open interest -9.46%. Total position contraction, limited net price change, short positions across settlements still bear holding costs corresponding to the current rate.
$XAU Long side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 8-hour rate +0.0408%, price +0.15%, open interest +2.41%. Price rise and position increase are synchronized; holding long positions beyond settlement at the current rate, funding fees will raise the breakeven price.Injective's Meridian mainnet upgrade (IIP-701) has been approved with about 99% support from stakers and launched as v1.20.4. The upgrade embeds compliance rules directly into tokenized assets, allowing issuers to set holder and transfer conditions, and enables EVM applications to access native liquidity and settlement systems; meanwhile, the network has started testing a private RFQ market for institutions as a preparatory step for the upcoming privacy layer CypherOS. INJ deposits and withdrawals, which were paused by some exchanges during the upgrade, have now resumed.Canary Capital has submitted the third revision of the S-1 for the staked INJ ETF. The plan is to use at least 90% of the trust's INJ holdings for staking, with a 21-day unlocking period for staked shares. Staking rewards belong to the trust and may be reinvested. If approved, institutional funds entering the market will need to lock their positions through staking, which could simultaneously increase spot demand and staking scale while reducing available circulating supply; however, the third revision does not guarantee approval, as the final outcome depends on regulatory approval pace and actual capital inflow.🚨 ETH WHALE GOES FULL LONG AHEAD OF NON-FARM PAYROLLS!
Big Brother Maji is making a massive bet ahead of tonight’s 8:30 PM NFP data release. 👀
🐳 BTC Long • Position: ~440 BTC
• Entry: ~$84,627.80
• Position Value: ~$37.98M
• Unrealized PnL: +$746.3K
🐳 ETH Long • Position: ~32,000 ETH
• Entry: ~$2,683.08
• Position Value: ~$87.11M
• Unrealized PnL: +$2.05M
🐳 HYPE Long • Position: ~190,000 HYPE
• Entry: ~$90
• Position Value: ~$17.13M
• Unrealized PnL: +$273K
🔥#DailyOrbit As of around midnight Beijing time on October 3, the BTC reference price was approximately $85,269, down about 2.1% from the intraday high of $87,071. The short-term trend is a rise followed by a pullback; the macro outlook is bullish, but the upward momentum has not yet recovered.
Support levels to watch first are $85,000, then $84,000 to $84,100, with a more important range support at $82,500. On the upside, first see if $85,700 can be reclaimed, then watch resistance between $87,000 and $87,400. Only after breaking through and holding on a retest will conditions be favorable to challenge $90,000.
Adding positions should wait for confirmation: a stop in the decline after testing support, a recovery back above the price level, or stabilizing above $85,700 and holding on a retest before considering gradually increasing spot holdings. If volume expands and support is broken, it is not advisable to keep adding positions just because the price has dropped. Currently, lacking volume, open interest, and continuous order book verification, it cannot be confirmed that major players are absorbing the supply.
On the macro side, September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, below the expected 90,000; unemployment rate at 4.2%, average hourly earnings up 0.1% month-over-month, and the previous two months’ employment figures were revised down by a total of 60,000. The data reduces recent rate hike pressure and is bullish for BTC in the short term, but does not indicate that rate cuts have begun.
Going forward, attention should be paid to U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices. CPI will be released at 20:30 on October 14 Beijing time, and PPI at 20:30 on October 15; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may offset the positive impact of cooling employment. $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Ondo's treasury token USDY currently has over 90% of its supply deployed on the Sei Network, with an on-chain value of approximately $259 million. Sei claims it has become the primary issuance and custody chain for USDY. USDY is a tokenized product pegged to U.S. Treasury bonds and is a core asset in the RWA (Real World Asset) sector. This concentrated deployment reflects institutional-grade real-world asset preference for the network and also confirms Ondo's deep integration in institutional scenarios. For ONDO, this distribution also means a high concentration on a single chain: if the liquidity or user structure of that chain's ecosystem changes, the stability of USDY's deployment and the sustainability of Ondo's ecosystem narrative could be affected. Currently, the token price has not shown a clear correlation with this, and the event is more of a mid-to-long-term ecological structural insight.Nonfarm Night Crypto Market Review: Oversold Signals Emerge, How Far Can the Rebound Go?
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The data seems bullish, but the market votes with its feet—good news fully priced in becomes bad news; the real pricing logic lies in the expectation gap.
BTC current price 85888, 15-minute RSI6=26.63 deeply oversold, MACD bearish momentum continues to expand. After surging to 87239, it quickly fell back under macro pressure, resistance at 86600, support at 85200, strong defense at 83700. Short-term rebound repair demand exists, but sentiment has clearly weakened.
ETH current price 2723, moving down in sync with BTC, RSI6=27.78 also oversold. Resistance at 2760, support at 2680, key defense at 2672. Lacking independent narrative, fully following the overall market rhythm.
ZEC current price 1378, after oversold rebound, fell back with the market, RSI6=45.46 neutral. Resistance 1410-1420, support 1340, bottom 1305. Relatively elastic, highly sensitive to sentiment.
Core view: Stronger nonfarm data pushes up rate hike expectations, triggering risk asset pullback. All coins are oversold short-term, technical rebound is expected, but trend sentiment has weakened. Coupled with simultaneous outflows from BTC and ETH spot ETFs and US Treasury yields hitting new highs frequently, capital enthusiasm continues to cool. Do not chase the rebound; wait to hold support before considering opportunities.
The above is only a technical market review and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ENJ is still up about 14.6%, but two-hour contract open interest has shrunk by about 76.7%.
As of 23:36 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.03316, with a 24-hour high of $0.04077 and a low of $0.02893, a volatility of about 40.9%; the current price has retraced about 18.7% from the high, with a trading volume of about $2.11 million.
OKEx daily chart shows the median trading volume over the past 7 full trading days is about $115,000, which has expanded about 18.4 times in this round. Hourly statistics show the nominal value of open interest dropped from about $6.72 million at 21:00 to about $1.56 million at 23:00; the current funding rate is about -0.0782%, with perpetual contracts trading at a slight premium of about 0.12% over spot.
My judgment is that the price still maintains double-digit gains, but high-leverage positions are rapidly exiting, and the market has shifted from a squeeze phase to a chip re-pricing phase. The easiest misjudgment is to interpret the decline in open interest as risk fully released; the negative funding rate still indicates shorts are paying fees, and the current price has not fallen back to the intraday low.
Next, watch $0.04077 and $0.033. If open interest no longer surges when approaching the previous high and the funding rate converges, spot support is more credible; if $0.033 is broken and open interest continues to decline, the pullback looks more like a position reduction that is not yet over.
$ENJ Solana's leading treasury company Forward Industries disclosed that as of the end of Q4 fiscal year 2026, its holdings of SOL and equivalents increased from 7.553 million to 8.501 million, a single-quarter increase of 948,600, up 13%, accounting for about 1.4% of the circulating supply, with an average cost of approximately $83 for the new holdings. On a fully diluted basis, the SOL per share rose from 0.0730 to 0.0806, a quarterly growth of 10.4%, indicating that financing purchases of coins continue to increase the SOL exposure per share, and the company's long-term allocation demand is strengthening.Payment technology company Fiserv launched a digital asset platform on Solana, becoming the first to support Roughrider Coin issued by banks in North Dakota, enabling more than 90 banks and credit unions to complete payment settlements within seconds without managing wallets and private keys themselves. This is a practical case of the state-level banking system directly accessing the public chain stablecoin payment track through existing software infrastructure, providing institutional-level adoption endorsement for Solana.$TRUMP must be staked for 180 days and voted at least once every 90 days to receive rewards. The initial reward pool only has 1.25 million USD1, distributed over 180 days. This is a shared pool; the more people stake, the less each person gets. Even if retail investors stake a lot, it can't dilute the Trump family's 4.6 billion tokens. Unlocking pressure remains.
WLFI is currently about $0.055, with a circulating market cap of about 1.8 billion, but a fully diluted valuation of 5.4 billion — nearly 70% of tokens are locked and will be gradually released over the next few years. Those who got trapped in September last year are still inside; these people face ongoing pressure.
Justin Sun has turned hostile.
Justin Sun invested $45 million and was once the largest external investor. But WLFI used smart contract freezing features to lock his tokens, and he sued, accusing WLFI of leaving a "backdoor" in the contract. The court has rejected WLFI's request to move the case to secret arbitration; Justin Sun's personal claims will be heard in open court. The lawsuit is not yet decided, but the notion of a "partner harvest" no longer holds — now it is an open hostile relationship.
Reports say WLFI sold 5.9 billion tokens from the treasury without notifying the community, allowing insiders to cash out over $1.6 billion, while early investors are locked for two years. Meanwhile, wallets associated with the team burned 100 million tokens, but 17.8 billion tokens (worth about 11.9 billion) remain in the unlocking contract waiting to be released.⚡ FRIDAY COULD SET THE TONE FOR BTC
All eyes on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.
With PCE showing signs of cooling, Friday’s jobs data could shift expectations around the Fed’s next move.
➤ Strong NFP → fewer rate cuts expected
➤ Weak NFP → more easing expectations
➤ Either way → BTC volatility could pick up
$BTC is hovering around the $87.4K resistance zone.
If NFP surprises, expect that level to get tested.
Watch the data. Watch the reaction. 📊
NFA. DYOR.Writing
🚀 7U Challenge to 100 Million! | Day 42
💰 Principal: 7U
🎯 Target: 100 Million
📈 Current Balance: 3,900U
🛡️ Survival Fund: 2,600U
🔥 Available Capital: 1,300U+
During the National Day holiday, many market makers, funds, and whales may be less active. That could create an interesting window for the market to consolidate, with fresh catalysts and sentiment shifts potentially emerging after the holiday. 👀
1️⃣ whether these developments translate into sustained progress.
#DailyOrbit Non-farm payrolls weaken, but the Fed is still talking tough
In September, non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with expectations around 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by just 0.1% month-over-month. More importantly, July and August data were revised down by a total of 60,000.
On one hand, job growth is stagnant, unemployment is rising, and wage growth is cooling; on the other hand, the Fed continues to emphasize labor market resilience and wages as a source of inflation. They verbally defend against inflation, but the reality is that employment pressure is being felt.
Expectations for rate cuts have not emerged yet, but expectations for rate hikes have clearly retreated. As long as upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to weaken, easing expectations will gradually return, and risk assets will truly have a tailwind. $BTCThe US added only 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, below the expected range of 84,000–93,000, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2%, and the data for the previous two months significantly revised downward. The data reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening, providing marginal support for risk assets; however, the cooling labor market also heightens concerns about slowing economic momentum. These two transmission paths point in opposite directions, resulting in an overall neutral impact.#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
The US has deployed a set of "Patriot" systems to both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, not to secure oil, but to control airspace.
▪️ Saudi Arabia's system protects oil production facilities, Qatar's system protects natural gas production facilities
▪️ Large-scale strikes require Saudi airspace; if facilities can't be protected, Saudi Arabia is "unlikely" to grant permission
▪️ In early August, Saudi Arabia and Qatar advised against striking Iran, after which the US shifted to economic pressure
▪️ Another angle: the US demands Europe release 120 million barrels of diesel over 6 months, or threatens a diesel export ban
▪️ Brent crude December contract closed at 102.31 on 10/1, up 4.37%; the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier departed on 9/27, arriving mid-November
The disagreement isn't whether Brent crude can hold above 100, but why the US must first protect others' oil — without protection, it can't secure airspace and thus can't strike Iran.
Currently, there is only one carrier strike group in the Middle East, which will increase to a maximum of three.
120 million barrels exceed one-third of the EU's emergency reserves, to be released within six months; European diesel has hit a new high of €2.24 per liter.
The ticket to strike Iran is half paid from others' tanks — who do you think foots the bill? 10u challenge to 100,000u
Current total funds: 306u
Initially, 10u was used for options and polmarket predictions to reach 200u
Now switching to contracts, earned 22u today, opened a short position on SOL. I judge today's pump was just to cooperate with news to liquidate shorts, not a valid breakout. Based on BTC's 15-minute candle turning from bullish to bearish, I opened a short on SOL and have taken profit
I believe the current major trend is still a volatile downtrend. The earlier pump was to support Trump's crypto policy narrative and strong liquidation of shorts.
Without effective capital support, the bullish market cannot be maintained.
Currently mainly watching whether around 82,000 will form a valid breakout to shift from long to short and enter a major correction
Or whether the resistance at 87,000 above can be strongly broken to continue the trend
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC Kalshi and CME FedWatch data show that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October has risen to about 85%, while a week ago the market expected a 64% chance of a rate hike. Short-term tightening concerns have clearly eased, providing temporary support to interest rate-sensitive risk assets including Bitcoin; however, there is still an expectation of another rate hike within 2026, with medium- to long-term uncertainty not yet resolved, and this expectation has already been largely priced into the market. $BTC Nonfarm payrolls surprise, why didn't the crypto market "get hyped"?
September's nonfarm data landed with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The data is weak enough, but the market's anticipated "rate cuts and easing" did not materialize immediately—U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the dollar has not weakened significantly. Between the poor data and policy shifts lie multiple hurdles such as inflation and the Fed's stance.
The crypto market reacted mildly. BTC rose above $86,000 in the morning and briefly touched around $87,000 after the nonfarm release, gaining two to three percent intraday, which helped stabilize the position. ETH climbed from $2,600 to around $2,750, breaking out of the late September sideways range, but the momentum was lukewarm. SOL showed more resilience, surging to about $122, up 3% to 4% in 24 hours, outperforming BTC and ETH.
Overall, the market did not make a big splash. Interest rates and the dollar still weigh heavily overhead, and capital enthusiasm is cooling down—BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows. It's too early to declare a bull market return. The nonfarm report is just the prelude; the real direction depends on the Fed's next moves.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Glassnode on-chain data maps out a significant sell wall in the $85,000–$85,500 range, which was previously a supply zone and is now being retested. The market is watching to see if it can turn into effective support: holding $85,500 sets short-term targets at $86,800 and $87,600; if it closes below $85,000, the bullish structure fails and may trigger further pullbacks. This key level test coincides with a 1.04% drop within the 60-minute window and a technical pullback after RSI overbought conditions on the 4-hour chart. $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Q: In your trading rules, which red line must never be crossed?
The most important red line is not to lose all your own funds, or not to have a drawdown exceeding 50%.
A drawdown exceeding 50% means the price needs to rise 100% from the current level just to break even.
Not losing all your own funds is the most important rule; this means game over, you cannot participate in the market's subsequent movements. Even if your view is correct, or how much profit you could make based on your view, it will all be destroyed once your total capital is wiped out. Finally, invest only with "spare money".
This means that even if you lose this part of the funds, life can still go on 🤔
$BTC $ETH Nonfarm payrolls haven't started yet,
but the shorts are already getting wiped out.
The most dangerous thing isn't the pullback.
It's when the shorts start to collectively retreat.
They run faster than the data release.
When BTC lifts its head,
ETH gets excited.
High Beta altcoins like ZEC
directly show off:
"I'm not just rising, I'm taking off."
In the past, with rate hikes and high interest rates,
the market looked utterly hopeless.
Now that risk appetite is back,
short positions are as fragile as paper.
Either they're forcibly liquidated,
or they scare themselves into closing.
ETH naturally has more elasticity than BTC.
When BTC breaks key resistance,
ETH is like a compressed spring.
ZEC is even crazier,
outperforming the market during the short squeeze phase.
BTC rises 5%,
high Beta altcoins:
I rise so much you'll question your life.
The key now isn't guessing how much more ZEC can rise.
Look at the chain:
BTC breaks out → ETH follows → sentiment warms → shorts stop out → leverage chases the rally.
Once linked together,
rebound?
No, it's a short squeeze.
Shorts?
No, they're the fuel.
Shorts fear not the rise.
They fear that as prices rise,
they'll be forced to buy back their own shorts.
Buy? Add fuel to the rally.
Don't buy? Keep getting lifted out.
The market never follows the script.
When the trend truly starts,
the first thing to disappear isn't opportunity,
but the margin for error in counter-trend positions.
Just venting, don't get too hyped.
$ETH H $BTC
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Brothers, the ETF capital flow has already turned. The big cake $BTC spot ETF had a net inflow for nine consecutive days, accumulating over three billion USD, but starting from September 30th, it experienced net outflows for two consecutive days. On the $ETH side, it was even more straightforward, with net outflows for three consecutive days; the capital flow shifted from divergence to synchronized escape. The Coinbase report also pointed out that the recent profit-taking scale of the big cake has reached a yearly high, and spot demand has clearly slowed down.
But while capital is running out, the market is still rising. Why? Because the market is betting on a non-farm payroll surprise. On the evening of October 2nd, the data came out showing only an increase of 29,000 in non-farm payrolls, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The big cake immediately surged to 87,000, rising more than 3% intraday. This wave is purely driven by macro expectations and completely disconnected from ETF outflows.
However, when the market calmed down, it realized that the 29,000 non-farm payroll increase is not a soft landing but a hard landing warning. The 4.2% unemployment rate combined with the employment cliff triggered recession fears that outweighed rate cut expectations. Profit-taking and panic selling hit together, causing the big cake to quickly fall from its high, wiping out today's gains.
The core contradiction now is very clear. ETFs are flowing out, spot demand is slowing, and the market briefly held up on non-farm payroll expectations. After the data was released, those expectations were fulfilled. If ETFs continue to flow out, it will be hard to sustain this momentum. The macro data-driven rally surged hard in the first wave but has the worst sustainability. Don't chase highs, don't heavily bet on direction. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 @OKX星球 $SOL｜Bullish bias, pullback in place, can be referenced
4h RSI 52.7, mid-range; 1h RSI 47, mid-range, MACD trending down.
Observation: Pullback zone 120.03–120.64 (1h pullback zone) reached, current price within the zone.
Timing: Within pullback zone, suitable for reference (do not chase the rally).
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 123.74; break below 117.81 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
Summary: Bullish bias, pullback zone can be referenced, trade depending on invalidation.
$PEPE｜Bullish bias, has fallen out of observation zone
4h RSI 52.9, mid-range; 1h RSI 45.5, slightly low, MACD trending down.
Observation: Original pullback zone 0.0000044235–0.0000044647, current price has dropped out of zone, do not enter yet.
Timing: Out of zone, do not enter yet.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 0.000004751; break below 0.0000043114 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
Summary: Bullish structure remains, but out of observation zone, do not enter yet.
For analysis only, not advice or trading instruction.$SAND This position will play sideways here to eat fees, absolutely refusing to go downHello, friends, I am Chao Ge 🤝
👉 Is this $BTC whale going crazy killing longs?
BTC just dropped sharply from 87238 to 85155, and there are two reasons.
👆🏻 First: On the news front, although the non-farm payrolls were soft, Federal Reserve officials spoke hawkishly in the early morning, emphasizing that inflation remains resilient, cooling down rate cut expectations.
👆🏻 Second: ETF profit-taking, with a single-day net outflow of 148 million, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows, triggering long stop-loss orders directly. Technically, on the 1-hour chart, the price quickly fell below MA5 (86152) and MA10 (86175), MACD formed a death cross downward, and bearish momentum was released intensively.
🚩 My suggested night trading strategy:
The first support below is between 84500 and 85000, with core support at 83500 to 84000. Resistance above is between 86200 and 86500. For contract trading, lightly go long on a pullback to stabilize between 84500 and 85000, with a stop loss at 84000, targeting 85800 to 86200; short on a rebound near 86200, with a stop loss at 86800, targeting 85000.
Hold your spot position at the bottom and do not move; consider reducing positions only if it breaks below 84000. There are often spikes between midnight and 1 AM in the night session, so don’t chase shorts before sleep. The worst now is chasing highs and killing lows; control your hands and wait for the 4-hour MACD golden cross before acting.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The 30-year US Treasury yield stands above 5.6%, the highest since 2002, with macro headwinds persisting. Micron's earnings report is upcoming, with AI storage demand again in focus; US-Iran talks have resumed, but substantive concessions remain limited.
$BTC is quoted at 83,074, after hitting a high of 86,000 yesterday and then entering a high-level consolidation. The 80,000 level has shifted from resistance to support. Currently, watch the 85,000 defense line and 87,000 resistance: holding above suggests a target of 88,000-90,000; losing 85,000 means no chasing longs, wait for support near 83,000. Rate cut expectations fluctuate, ETF fund flows are uncertain, and 85,000 remains the key dividing line between bulls and bears.
$ETH is quoted at 2,660, showing a clear strengthening compared to earlier periods, with 2,700 forming the first short-term defense line. A 35% staking lock-up combined with reluctance to sell supports the price, but ETFs have not seen continuous net inflows, so relying solely on locked-up tokens to push prices up carries risks. Holding above 2,700 targets 2,800; a breakout looks toward 2,850-2,900; if it falls below, reduce positions and contract.
$ZEC is quoted at 1,392, still the strongest overall, with momentum undiminished after surging past 1,600. Key levels to watch are 1,550 for defense, 1,600 for contention, and 1,650 for breakout; holding above targets 1,650-1,700; breaking below 1,550 means no aggressive chasing, wait for support near 1,500.
Overall, BTC is defensive, ETH is consolidating, ZEC is short-squeezing, but the entire network’s high leverage leaves very little margin for error, and liquidity is thin over the weekend. Operationally, keep light spot positions, avoid 50x leverage, and set stop losses properly without holding through adverse moves Many people are struggling with whether Bitcoin's next market move will be up or down.
From the indicators, the daily RSI and MACD have already shown divergence.
MACD has also formed a daily death cross.
Yesterday, the daily chart closed with a high-volume inverted hammer bearish candle.
In the past, this pattern was basically a clear bearish signal,
but this time it reversed and went up.
However, I believe this upward move is nearing its end.
Intraday, around 8.68, the price showed a volume contraction pullback.
The lack of selling pressure volume indicates there will be another push upward.
Most likely, this will form a secondary high and create an M-top pattern.
The new high is estimated to be below 8.75K.
If the M-top plays out as expected,
the power of the daily divergence and death cross will be fully unleashed,
and the real wave two correction will officially begin.🧊 The non-farm payroll cooled down, so why didn't the coin price keep rising?
$BTC's data tonight gave the market a reason to catch its breath. The US added 29,000 jobs in September, below Reuters' expected 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Hiring isn't that fast, so the reason to continue raising interest rates is somewhat reduced, but that doesn't mean rates will be cut immediately. The quote at 22:45 was about 85,600, still below the evening level above 86,000. My understanding is that the news is somewhat positive, but the price hasn't responded as optimistically yet. We'll have to see if buyers are willing to keep buying; don't assume the direction is stable just by reading the headline.
$ETH also doesn't show signs of rushing upward. Near 23:00 it was around 2709, up only about 0.6% in the past week. Easing expectations can improve sentiment, but it still needs its own demand to catch up. Whether on-chain transactions, lending, and capital inflows can increase is more important than just a quick boost from macro news. If business and capital don't improve simultaneously, I wouldn't consider this rebound as a full market rally.
For $HYPE, we need to distinguish between platform trading activity and token price increase. It returned to around 90 in the evening, still down about 2.8% over the past week. Large volatility may bring more trades, but active trading doesn't necessarily mean more people are buying the coin. I'll watch if the platform can retain traders after the hype fades. A single night's trading can look impressive, but sustained income over several weeks better indicates whether the business has improved.#SEC Chairman Atkins stated that efforts will be made to clarify on-chain fundraising rules. This is a regulatory positive for the leading decentralized exchange UNI, but the current price is hesitating around 9.074. I judge that the short-term trend is still dominated by market divergence.
The contradiction lies here: both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but the 24-hour trend shows a slight decline of 0.5%, with a high of 9.304 retreating and a low of 8.853, indicating that the bulls failed twice to break through; the trading volume of 14.392 million is relatively low, the funding rate of 0.0074% is almost neutral, and the open interest of 5.929 million tokens shows no significant increase or decrease. Although buyers have an advantage with a buy-sell ratio of 1.21, their willingness to chase higher prices is weak.
In the short term, one can place a long order at 8.965 with a stop loss at 8.842 and a target of 9.273; if the price first surges to 9.288 but encounters resistance and falls back, then lightly try short positions with a stop loss at 9.356 and a target of 9.012. Single position size should not exceed 5%, and exit immediately if the position is broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$UNI#SEC Chairman Atkins stated that efforts will be made to clarify on-chain fundraising rules
#SEC Chairman Atkins stated that efforts will be made to clarify on-chain fundraising rules $UNI Earnings report observers are actively discussing Micron's raised guidance and strengthening storage demand, with risk appetite warming but not yet transmitted to BSB. I judge that the short-term trend will mainly be consolidation. Looking at the market, the price is reported at 0.09948, down 1.9% in 24 hours, the high of 0.10234 failed to hold, the low of 0.09851 was quickly recovered. Both the one-hour and four-hour trends are upward, but still 12.7% below the four-hour high. The top ten buy orders are 689 versus 2847 sell orders, with a strength ratio of 0.24, indicating obvious selling pressure. The funding rate is 0.005%, bullish sentiment is moderate, open interest is 11.453 million, with no signs of panic selling. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 0.09867, with a stop loss at 0.09742 and a target of 0.10183; if volume breaks below the stop loss, exit and wait, keeping position size within 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $BSB 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 比特幣今天到了高點之後，有往下跌。這篇最重要的一句話先講：能止盈的，就一定要跑。 比特幣原本的計畫（留作參考）： ▷ 做多：83,000 跟 83,500 之間，當時現價可輕倉。 ▷ 止盈點：86,000。 ▷ 加碼點：81,000。 ▷ 止損點：78,000。 ▷ 現在的動作：能止盈就跑。 先把今天的經過講清楚，時間都是台灣時間、OKX 永續合約。中午 12 點那根 1 小時 K 就衝過 86,000，最高到 86,888；之後在 85,700～86,600 之間來回好幾個小時，都沒有跌回 85,700 以下。晚上 8 點半非農公布，那根 15 分鐘 K 最高摸到 87,239，是今天的最高點。接著 9 點半美股開盤又上衝到 87,111，沒有創新高；10 點之後開始往下，10 點 33 分左右跌破 86,000，11 點多一路到 85,100，截圖時在 85,200 附近。 所以今天這一段，價格有到我們說的止盈點位，也有往上多走了一千多點，最後又回到 86,000 下面。這就是為什麼這次要講得很直接：能止盈的，就一定要跑。 這篇只講到這裡，比特幣不另外給#财报观察员：Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen, the current computing power narrative has limited impact on CL, I lean towards a bearish view. The 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages are synchronously pressing down, rebound highs are progressively lower, the risk of chasing longs is clearly high. Current price 90.99, down 1.4% in 24h, the high of 93.66 failed to hold, the low of 88.3 was tested twice without breaking, entering a short-term weak consolidation. The top ten order book buy/sell ratio is 0.66, selling pressure is heavy, funding rate at zero indicates neither longs nor shorts are willing to pay a premium, open interest at 369,000 contracts has not significantly decreased. Trading volume is 20.357 million, volume is average, rebound lacks support, inclined to short on rebounds. Strategy 1: Short at rebound to 91.86, stop loss at 93.42, target 88.64, risk-reward about 2:1. Strategy 2: If it breaks below 88.17 directly, lightly short, stop loss at 89.55, target 85.73. Position control within 20%, single loss no more than 1.5% of total capital, take profit in batches at target, do not hold losing positions.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$CL#财报观察员：Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen
#财报观察员：Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen $CL Position Update｜Big Brother Maji's total open position has reached $142 million! Slightly increased positions, bullish conviction remains full
The latest position changes are very clear:
‑ $BTC: Increased to 440 coins, 40X full position long, entry at 84627.80, unrealized profit +746,300, liquidation price raised to 66257.79, safety margin further expanded
‑ $ETH: Still holding a base position of 32,000 coins, 25X full position long, entry at 2683.08, unrealized profit +2,054,600, this part of Ethereum contributes the most elasticity to the entire portfolio
‑ $HYPE: Slightly increased to 190,000 coins, 10X full position long, continuing to maintain an aggressive position in the popular sector
Overall strategy remains unchanged:
BTC+ETH as the absolute main force, willing to continuously bear huge funding costs daily, not shaken out by interim volatility; then using a small portion of funds to speculate on sector Beta trends.
One detail worth noting:
He does not blindly increase leverage; instead, as he adds positions, he pushes the overall liquidation range lower and farther away, a strategy of holding large positions for trends and reserving buffers.
But risks are also on the table:
The $142 million full position long exposure is there; as long as a sudden liquidity crunch occurs, it will be very difficult for such a huge position to exit smoothly; no matter how thick the unrealized profit is, it does not mean he can rest easy.
In the end, big money competes not on how much short-term profit is made, but on whether it can orderly lock in gains before the market turns.Network usage growth only affects $ETH through fees and staking.
Ethereum hosts more stablecoins, assets, and applications, but this does not mechanically cause $ETH to rise proportionally. Usage growth primarily drives demand for transactions and data, some of which is paid in Gas and may impact burning; applications and users may also hold ETH as liquidity, collateral, or security assets. Meanwhile, fee reductions, improved L2 settlement efficiency, and meta-transaction mechanisms change how much ETH each activity requires. Value capture is a pathway, not an equation where more transactions equal higher price. To judge long-term logic, one should observe whether real users increase, the network's revenue structure, staking security demands, and whether applications can persist in an open environment. If activity relies solely on subsidies, fees barely return to the protocol, or assets remain controlled by centralized issuers, the activity's liveliness may not translate into $ETH demand. Optimism about $ETH is valid but must clarify through which mechanisms value is transmitted.
Therefore, observing $ETH requires not only monitoring on-chain transaction counts but also examining how much each activity type is willing to pay, whether usage is repeated, if open settlement is needed, and whether the protocol can convert income into security and scarcity. Brothers, I'm stunned, really stunned.
In the time it took to have a meal, my floating profit on the short position directly turned into a floating loss.
Previously, the floating profit had already reached 50%, 60%, and now it's directly a floating loss.
To be honest, I couldn't accept it for a moment. Actually, I thought this trade was almost a sure thing, but unexpectedly the manipulator came in hard and forcibly pushed the price up.
Yesterday when $CAP dropped to 0.0665, I didn't exit. I originally thought the downside space was completely open, aiming for 0.06.
But what a surprise, a big bullish candle directly pulled it back to 0.0824, with a high of 0.08423, precisely back to my entry price.
It's false to say I'm not upset.
The duck that was about to be caught flew away, really gave me a harsh lesson: in this market, taking profits is always right, securing gains is more important than anything.
Now my forced liquidation price is at 0.14698, so no risk of liquidation, but the psychological gap is even harder to bear than liquidation.
I still set my stop loss at 0.087 for this trade. If it really forcefully breaks through the previous high of 0.08888, then I'll admit my mistake and exit, definitely won't hold the position.
If the subsequent rebound is weak, I'll find a position to break even and close out, absolutely cannot let a profitable trade turn into a big loss.
Today's tuition fee hurts, but discipline is discipline: no adding capital, no holding losing positions, no all-in, daily public review.
$BTC
$ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 你在链上挂一笔代币化美股的卖单，点确认，成交价比你看到的价格少了1%。没人割你，是池子太浅。 一、资产早就过剩了 Ondo的资产目录超过430个，Bitget一家上了500多只代币化美股和ETF，再加上xStocks、bStocks、gStocks，想买的股票基本都有对应代币。「有没有货」早就不是问题。 问题从你下单那一刻才开始。 二、一单下去，深度立刻露馅 今年的风险研究测过：很多代币化股票市场上，一笔1万美元的订单，成交均价能比预期差出1%，就因为订单簿太薄。CryptoRank七月的实测更直白，同样5万美元的单子，不同平台滑点能差45%到58%。 美股休市后更惨：盘后和周末订单簿明显变薄，价差拉大，大额卖单能把价格短时砸脱锚。头部产品也躲不开，Bitget的NVDA永续，深度只有自家比特币现货的75%左右。 三、深度为什么稀缺 传统金融的账户背后，是央行、一级做市商、回购市场堆出来的万亿级缓冲垫。 链上的深度是租来的：挖矿补贴一停，马上蒸发。几十条L2和跨链桥还在把本就不厚的深度切得更碎。 大资金算的是另一笔账：千万级头寸一进一出，滑点加MEV磨掉1-2%，RWA一年4-5%的无#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC This type of real-yield asset on-chain is causing the collateral narrative of MMT to be repriced. I tend to be cautiously bullish but strictly control position size. Looking at the market, the current price 0.1873 has risen 50.56% from the 4-hour low, with the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages both trending upward, and the longer-term structure is bullish; the 24h high/low of 0.1921/0.1837 forms a narrow range box, with a trading volume of only 503,000, a funding rate of 0.0050% which is mild, and an open interest of 8,697,000 coin-margined contracts. The top 10 buy/sell orders are 15,000 vs. 14,000, with the buy side slightly dominant. It remains in a strong consolidation before breaking above 0.1923. Strategy-wise, place long orders on a pullback to 0.1841, stop loss at 0.1793, target 0.1949; if volume increases and it breaks above 0.1923, you can lightly chase longs with a stop loss at 0.1871 and a target of 0.2017. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total capital; exit immediately if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $MMT $NEAR was hacked yesterday, with about $3.2 million in user assets stolen. The project team has promised full compensation. Dragged down by the news, NEAR quickly declined. A few days ago, when NEAR was still around 5.4, I posted that I had shifted part of my MEAR position to $ZAMA. Looking back now, that move was quite correct: although both pulled back simultaneously, NEAR's drop was significantly larger.
In the short term, both $NEAR and $ZEC have most likely reached a phase top. Especially $ZEC, whose daily oscillation range has already broken down, and high-level chips will need more time to be digested, so the recovery pace might be slow. However, this is only a short-term peak, not the end of the trend. After sufficient chip turnover, NEAR and ZEC still have the chance to start a second wave of rally. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Whale portfolio adjustments show divergence: $BTC is being reduced, $ETH is accumulating against the trend, and $XRP remains watchful
Crypto analyst Ali, citing Santiment data, reveals that during the past week’s market consolidation, significant cracks appeared in the movements of whales holding major cryptocurrencies.
For Bitcoin, whale addresses collectively reduced holdings by about 30,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.52 billion, signaling phased profit-taking or risk reduction. Ethereum showed the opposite trend, with whales increasing holdings by about 60,000 ETH, worth around $162 million, clearly positioning against the trend. XRP whale holdings remained stable at about 3.9 billion tokens, showing no significant portfolio adjustments and staying in a wait-and-see mode.
Analysis suggests that the divergence of whale funds among BTC, ETH, and XRP reflects inconsistent outlooks on the market’s future. BTC reductions may indicate rising short-term caution, ETH accumulation could be a bet on ecosystem catalysts or relative value recovery, and XRP’s inactivity suggests waiting for clearer directional signals. If this divergence pattern continues, it may become a key indicator for the market’s search for a breakout direction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The focus remains on $BTC and $ETH, with small coins just accompanying.
Big brother Maji's 161 million position seems diversified, but the real fate of the account is still decided by the two major mainstreams.
· BTC: 40x full position long, 546 coins, opened at 84548.90. The leverage is fierce, but the liquidation price is at 75542, clearly leaving enough buffer to cope with the long wicks and intense volatility commonly seen around non-farm payrolls.
· ETH: 25x full position long, 34,000 coins, the largest ballast in the portfolio and the main source of current floating profit. The liquidation line is at 2550, giving the market more room for oscillation and digestion.
· HYPE: Only a small part, more like an emotional trial position, not affecting the BTC and ETH dominated overall situation.
The core of this strategy is not to cast a wide net, but to heavily invest in the main lines, layer leverage, and use small positions to chase heat. When a big market move comes, the winning hand is always handed to BTC and ETH: one responsible for elasticity, the other supporting the base.
But it must be clear that 40x and 25x full positions still carry extremely high risk. Even if the liquidation price seems far away, under extreme liquidity conditions it can lose control instantly. He has backup positions to add, but ordinary people may not have the same tolerance, so don't blindly copy. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 "Big Brother Maji's 154 Million Snapshot: Mainstream Leading, HYPE Still Enduring"
Latest positions released, total exposure 154 million, bullish faith unchanged. No major reductions, no reversals, continuing to hold main profit positions, slightly reducing positions, firmly holding emotional targets.
$BTC: 525 coins, 40X full position long. Continuing slight volume reduction, unrealized profit +337,800 U. Entry at 84,548.60, liquidation price lowered to 72,421.25, safety buffer further expanded, still the pioneer of elasticity play.
$ETH: 33,000 coins, 25X full position long. Account's profit ace, unrealized profit +1,475,400 U. Entry at 2,678.32, well above cost, forced liquidation at 2,517.70, supporting the confidence of the entire large position.
$HYPE: 221,000 coins, 10X full position long. Still unrealized loss -306,300 U, no cut loss, only slight position reduction. Using lower leverage to isolate volatility, allowing the sector time to recover.
Those familiar with his strategy understand: during major macro windows, no back-and-forth swings; rather, hold onto mainstream positions that have already made profits, using unrealized gains to cover the time cost of smaller positions.
This layout is designed to let profits keep running: BTC and ETH reap enough dividends, becoming a solid safety cushion; HYPE is still enduring the emotional turning point, overall still betting. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm payrolls froze! 29,000 smashed expectations, BTC bulls eyeing 90,000? US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, expected 90,000; unemployment rate 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1%. The employment engine suddenly stalled, signaling economic cooling, weakening the Fed's excuse to maintain high pressure, and easing trades quickly heated up. The dollar retreated, US Treasury yields dipped, and risk assets got a breather.
On the BTC side, the price returned above 86,000, with sentiment clearly warming. Technically, first focus on the previous high of 86,914: if taken with volume, trend funds may chase in, bringing the 90,000 psychological level into range; if it’s a low-volume false breakout, a pullback to support is not unexpected. Macro gives the wind, the market gives the momentum, but position sizing and stop-loss remain lifesavers.
$BTC $ZEC $CORE #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Piper sharply cut Nike's target price. The number itself isn't earth-shattering, but it hits reality: consumption is retreating, while AI and tech leaders are still surging. In the same market, there's a split between hot and cold sectors; the K-shaped recovery is no longer just a macro term but a trading map.
Money has become smarter and scarcer. It doesn't spread out but concentrates on a few certainties. As a result, strong assets continue to attract capital, while weak assets lose liquidity. Don't expect a "flooding the mountain with water" style broad rally; that script is outdated. Leaders like BTC have consensus support at the bottom, so the tailwind remains; a bunch of altcoins without narratives or funds mostly rebound as a flight for survival, with a slow decline being the main theme. Aave supports tokenized US stock collateral borrowing of USDC, indicating that the boundaries of on-chain assets are being broken. SNDK, as a similar narrative target, shows a slightly warm short-term sentiment linkage but the market has not yet broken through; I tend to expect consolidation before a change. Current price is 1738, with a 24h slight drop of 0.2%, the high and low points 1806 and 1716 form a box range; trading volume is 526,000, relatively light, funding rate 0.0000% indicating neutrality, open interest at 47,000 unchanged, order book buy/sell ratio 1.12 slightly favors buyers, but 1-hour distance from high is -3.5%, 4-hour distance from low is 14.09%, upward momentum is marginally slowing. Strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 1721, stop loss at 1704, target 1793; if volume breaks above 1809, then chase long, stop loss 1786, target 1846. Keep position within 10%, exit immediately if broken.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$SNDK#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $SNDK