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A weak U.S. jobs report pushed down Treasury yields while igniting hopes that the Fed will hold steady in October, causing the market to rally.
September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, the weakest among all "positive growth" employment data in 2026, showing just how sharply U.S. hiring is slowing.
More noteworthy than the "4.2% unemployment rate" alone is the market's reaction sequence: weak jobs → falling Treasury yields → cooling rate hike expectations → rising risk assets. The starting point of this chain is "employment," and the endpoint is "prices," with the two middle links being the real mechanisms determining market moves.
"Weakest positive growth" — not "negative growth," but "still positive, yet pitifully so."
This distinction is crucial: if employment turns negative, the market would immediately switch from "rate cut optimism" to "recession panic," a complete reversal in nature.
So this stage is the most delicate — the data is just weak enough to boost rate cut expectations but not weak enough to trigger recession fears.
This window is comfortable but also the most fragile: if next month's nonfarm payrolls decline further, the same logic will self-implode.$ETH BREAKOUT SETUP
ETH is back around $2.67K, and the real battle is now near $2.75K–$2.80K
The interesting part: leverage has cooled, with ETH open interest falling to its lowest level since March, while ETF flows recently turned negative
For me, a clean daily reclaim above $2.80K would change the structure and put $3K back in focus
Until then, I’m watching the range — not chasing the breakoutLast night the market was highly volatile. The US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, with rising unemployment rate and slowing average hourly wage growth, clearly indicating a cooling labor market. Theoretically, this should lead the market to trade on expectations of the Federal Reserve slowing its tightening. $BTC once surged to around 87,300 but then fell back to 83,123, and is now rebounding to around 84,500. Positive macro expectations do not mean prices will only rise without falling; macro data only provides directional clues, while price trends determine trading. Currently, attention should be paid to the two key levels of 85,500 and 83,100 to judge whether market selling pressure has ended or if the decline will continue. Monthly nonfarm payrolls are affected by seasonal adjustments and cannot alone be used to judge an economic slowdown. A common mistake in the market is to go long on weak data or chase shorts on large bearish candles.
Summary: US September nonfarm payrolls were far below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market. Positive macro expectations do not mean prices will only rise without falling. Macro data only provides directional clues; price trends determine trading. Attention should be paid to the key levels of 85,500 and 83,100 to judge market trends. Do not judge economic slowdown based solely on single-month nonfarm data; avoid blind follow-the-crowd trading. $Driven by weak expectations for tonight's US nonfarm payroll data, the market traded early on rate cut expectations, causing BTC intraday buying to expand significantly, surging to $87,240 before pulling back. Currently, after a pullback near $86,300–$86,500, there is still support, indicating that bulls have not pulled back significantly. As long as the $86,000 level holds, the market may continue to challenge the previous high area. However, selling pressure has already begun to appear. After BTC surged to $87,240, the second rebound only reached $86,920 and did not re-reach the high, indicating that chasing funds are becoming cautious. As short-term bullish momentum weakens, profit-taking and trapped positions are gradually being released, and the market is waiting for re-buying at lower levels. The real focus tonight remains the US non-farm payroll. If employment data is weaker than expected, the market may first trade "rate cut expectations heating up," with BTC rapidly surging to $87,500–$88,000; But if the positive news has already been priced in in advance, after a rally, one should also be wary of funds cashing in on news and a rapid pullback. So tonight, what is more worth watching is not just guessing the rise or fall, but rather: 📌 support: 86,000 → 85,300 → $84,500 📌 Resistance: 87,200 → 87,800 → 88,500 USD 📌 Volume increases and the above 87,200 level is more favorable for continuing to challenge previous highs 📌. If it breaks below 86,000, be alert to non-farm payrolls📊 Overnight Market Review Last night’s non-farm payrolls initially brought gains, but by late night it turned messy. BTC spiked to 87,000 on cooling rate hike expectations but failed to hold; profit-taking combined with weekend position closures pushed it down, falling back to 84,300–84,500 by early morning, wiping out most of the non-farm gains. ETH similarly retreated back to 2,668 and 2,700, gains lost. It’s the familiar script again — first short squeeze, then rebound, followed by a long squeeze, hitting both sides. ⚔️ Today's Key Levels BTC: Resistance at 85,000, 86,000, 87,000; Support at 84,000, 83,000, 82,000. ETH: Resistance at 2,700, 2,739; Support at 2,660, 2,635, 2,628. 🎲 Today's Scenarios Bullish: Volume picks up and holds above 85,000, targeting 86,000/87,000; pullbacks to 84,000 or 83,000 with reduced volume stabilize, suitable for light buying. Bearish: If 84,000 breaks, look for 83,000 and 82,000; failure to reclaim 85,000 on rebound is a signal to reduce positions or test shorts. Sideways: With US markets closed over the weekend and thin liquidity, likely to oscillate between 83,000 and 85,000, no directional bets. My personal view: Neutral and watching. The fake breakout at 87,000 is obvious, weekend spikes are just to shake out greedy longs. Mainly watching the show, will decide direction after US markets reopen next week. Wrong call line: If volume picks up and holds above 87,400, I’ll switch to bullish; actually... The U.S. SEC approves 3x leveraged BTC and Ethereum ETPs, with Bitcoin perpetual fee rate on OKX holding at 0.0041%
The BTC perpetual fee rate on OKX was only 0.0041% this morning. The U.S. SEC just approved the listing of 3x leveraged BTC and Ethereum ETPs. Those holding positions are currently watching the turnover at $84,682.7 today. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas just posted the approval document; the SEC has allowed the Cboe exchange to list 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs, issued by Volatility Shares.
I checked the contract positions on OKX. Among the $7.815 billion perpetual contracts across the platform, Bitcoin accounts for $2.955 billion, Ethereum takes $1.773 billion, and the altcoin-to-BTC position ratio stands at 1.044. Ethereum perpetual fee rate is only 0.0007%, which annualizes to less than 0.8%, with spot turnover at $2,679.06. After this major news, long positions on the platform have not borrowed much to chase higher prices; the fee rate remains near the floor.
The 3x leveraged ETPs in the U.S. stock market experience daily decay, so holding them long-term is not cost-effective. The overall Fear & Greed Index is steady at 67 (Greed), and spot prices are holding stable around $84,682.7.September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by a total of 60,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in October plummeted from 70% a week ago to 22%.
The macro transmission chain is clear: weak nonfarm payrolls → cooling rate hike expectations → decline in US Treasury yields → easing liquidity pressure → rebound in risk appetite. BTC responded by surging to 87,000, with $ETH and SOL following suit.
But there is an abnormal signal. Two hours after the data release, everything reversed: gold gave back all its gains and turned negative, US Treasury yields ultimately rose instead of falling, with the 10-year yield increasing from 5.22% to 5.27%. The bond market has already slipped out of the Fed's control—even without a rate hike, yields cannot be suppressed.
$BTC: Benefiting short-term from the retreat in rate hike expectations, but if US Treasury yields continue to rise, the good days for risk assets won't last long.
$SOL: Fundamentally solid, but its high beta means that once the macro environment shifts, the pullback will be the most severe.
The nonfarm payrolls boost is short-term; US Treasury yields are the true judge.Non-farm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, with an expectation of 90,000; July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Once the data was released, Bitcoin first surged to 87,220, then was hammered down to 84,388, with the 83,186 level becoming a short-term strong support; EMA200 is repeatedly tugging around 84,040. Ethereum softened after touching 2,777, falling back to 2,660, with the J value at 15.46 clearly oversold. Gold dropped from 4,228 to 4,145, while crude oil uniquely surged to 104, with the J value at 89 overbought. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, institutions are accumulating below 85,000, and there is heavy selling pressure above 87,000. While expectations for rate cuts are rising, recession concerns have also returned. Don't chase highs at this level; both bulls and bears are vulnerable to losses. $BTC $ETH 🎢 下午先来一轮快速拉升，直接把不少空单扫掉；到了夜间行情又突然转弱，价格快速回落，多空两边都经历了一轮清洗。 我这边虽然一直保留着空单，但在 2750 附近并没有继续加仓。结果这波 ETH 从高位回落，实际跌幅也就接近 40 美元，幅度看着吓人，但真正的空间并没有想象中那么大。 结合目前 ETH 的走势来看，价格仍在 2,650–2,750 美元区域反复震荡。短线如果重新站稳 2,750 上方，市场可能再次测试 2,800 附近；如果跌破 2,650，则需要留意 2,620 以及 2,600 一带的支撑。 最近宏观数据、美元流动性和美债收益率依然是影响加密市场短线波动的重要因素，消息出来后的快速插针也越来越明显。 昨天从亏损到最终把仓位扭回来，算是有惊无险。行情越是剧烈，越不能被情绪带着走，仓位和止损还是第一位。 #ETH #Ethereum #加密货币 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到After the non-farm payroll data was released, the positive expectations were realized and prices fell. The news disturbance has come to an end, and the short-term market returns to technical aspects. Let's sort it out; I think:
Upper resistance
Short-term first resistance: 85000‑85600, rebound — first see if it can be reclaimed here;
Strong resistance: 87000‑87500, the high point from the non-farm spike, only a stable break above will reopen the upward path.
Lower support
Short-term lifeline: 82000‑82500, holding this maintains high-level consolidation;
Secondary support: 79500‑80000, if 82000 breaks down, it will likely probe this range.
Two rhythms:
✅ Hold 82000‑82500, consolidate and accumulate strength, then challenge previous highs;
⚠️ Effective breakdown means deeper correction, be cautious about going long.
Non-farm data only reduces the probability of rate hikes, it does not mean immediate rate cuts. The focus ahead is on CPI data. Recently, there have been more spikes; control your positions and avoid chasing highs or panicking on dips.
👉 Next, will it first consolidate and recover or continue to retest the lows? BTC 在前高附近再次遇阻，87,000 上方抛压明显，价格回落后重新测试 85,000 一带。与此同时，最新美国非农数据显示就业增长明显放缓，市场开始重新交易降息预期，但风险资产在消息刺激后的快速拉升也出现了获利回吐。 📌 交易思路： 方向：短线偏空 杠杆：最高 10x 空单关注区：84,900–85,200 止损：86,300 止盈： TP1：84,100 TP2：83,600 TP3：83,000 关键观察：84,700–84,500 是短线多空分界区域。如果 BTC 反弹无法重新站稳 85,200，并持续承压于 86,300 下方，短线回撤空间可能进一步打开；若重新突破并站稳 86,300，则需要警惕空头逻辑失效。 目前行情波动较大，非农数据后的第一波行情不一定代表最终方向，谨防快速插针和双向扫损。 #BTC #Bitcoin #USNFP #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #Trading最脆弱的一环，其实不是价格，是杠杆。🍓 当解锁遇上资金费率，谁先撑不住？ 我最近盯 $BEAT 的衍生品结构比看K线还认真。大额解锁刚过，之前那批被清算的多头还在慢慢回血，市场注意力已经从"能不能弹"变成"谁来接这些货"。每周销毁和用户增长确实托着基本面，但筹码集中度依然偏高。这里的关键不是现货，而是合约——如果低点不断抬高、量能同步回来，修复结构还能延续；可一旦资金费率转负、持仓量却下不来，那就是挤压前的脆弱信号，解锁压力会重新主导情绪。 $BICO 的走势更像在低波动里试探。交易深度还算稳，节点质押和委托机制给了代币实际用途，但我更在意拉升之后的承接质量。低量盘整后放量，趋势可能转向更扎实的修复；如果价格和量能背离，短线资金止盈的概率就会上升。这种时候永续合约的未平仓量比现货更能提前泄露意图。 $BTC 这边，ETF 资金回流叠加对美联储不再加息的期待，机构需求成了主要推力，结构上已经走出此前的弱势整理。但 ETF 流入每天都在变，真正的考验是回调时有没有稳定承接。有，则上行结构继续加固；没有，就要防宏观数据把收益率重新推高，进而压住风险偏好。杠杆层面，只要资金费率不极端，回调反The overnight market bottomed out and rebounded. $BTC found support around 81,600 and climbed back above 83,800. But don’t rush to chase — 84,500 is the real watershed. Only with strong volume holding above that level can it aim for 86,000; otherwise, the current rise can only be defined as a correction. The short-term defense is at 82,300; if broken, watch out for a retest of 81,200, or even a deeper correction.Computing power is starting to be traded as a commodity
CME plans to launch two AI computing power futures contracts. Turning computing power into standardized contracts that are deliverable and hedgeable means the market consensus is changing:
Computing power is no longer just a capital expenditure for tech companies; like crude oil and natural gas, it now has price volatility and hedging demand.
The downstream of the AI arms race is growing its own derivatives market—the GPU shortage over the past two years has already turned "computing power" from a cost item into a risk factor.1. Last night, the non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, leading the market to lower its expectations for Fed rate hikes. BTC instantly surged to 87000, then bulls took profits and the price retreated. Today, the Asian session is experiencing narrow fluctuations.
2. Market analysis: The impulsive rise driven by news is not a main trend rally. The spike and pullback left a long upper shadow, indicating heavy resistance above.
3. Key levels
Resistance: 87000
Support: 83800
A break below support signals the end of this non-farm rebound and a return to weakness. Holding above resistance will open new space.
4. Trading mindset: The momentum is set, strategy is the soul, position sizing is the ink. News-driven moves are best not chased with heavy positions; during consolidation, it is better to wait and observe, then act after pattern confirmation.
5. Reminder: The crypto market is highly volatile, with sudden spikes possible at any time. Set stop losses and avoid heavy positions betting on short-term news #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $CT The recent spot ETF flows of BTC and ETH are quite worth pondering. The market truly cooling down is never about the price on the charts, but about the incremental funds chasing highs — this is the core to closely watch going forward.
The latest fund data shows a clear divergence between the two sides:
BTC spot ETF had continuous outflows in the past two days, with a net outflow of $152 million on September 30, another $8.2 million outflow on October 1, then turning to a net inflow of $102.7 million on October 2. Behind this, BlackRock's IBIT contributed a single-day inflow of $195.6 million, directly offsetting the selling pressure from institutions like Fidelity and Grayscale.
On the ETH side, the outflow trend has not stopped yet, with a single-day net outflow of $55.4 million on October 2, and a cumulative outflow exceeding $170 million since the beginning of the month.
However, one thing is clear: short-term cooling of ETF funds does not mean a full retreat of institutional capital. For the whole of September, BTC spot ETF still recorded a net inflow of $2.65 billion, and ETH had $830 million, both being the second highest monthly inflows since August 2025. It now looks more like funds that entered earlier are taking profits in stages, and the lack of willingness from incremental chasing funds is a short-term internal market divergence, not a trend reversal.
The subtle point now is that the coin price remains at a relatively high level, but new ETF funds have not kept pace. This forms a very intuitive observation signal — the price can hold steady, but will new funds be willing to enter and take over the relay?
$BTC $ETH $BTC Damn it! This chart is making my blood pressure shoot through the roof.
Outside it's as quiet as a graveyard, but the manipulative whales are still playing games around 84613.7, placing and canceling orders repeatedly, clearly propping up the price with funds. The candlesticks are twitching like they're cramping, but volume is shrinking; this divergence is a signal that the scythe is about to strike.
Don't chase longs, don't fantasize about breaking 90,000. At this level, I choose to side with the bears, lightly shorting near 84613.7, with a stop loss above 85200. If it breaks that, I'll admit I was wrong. The first target is 83500, and if being aggressive, 82800.
Whether it's a shakeout or a trend change, we'll see in the next couple of days. If you want to follow, don't shout "charge"; place your orders on the downside market card, manage your own position size, and always set a stop loss.
👇👇👇$BTC has been consolidating for ten days after peaking around 87390. The movement feels like it's waiting for a starting gun rather than rushing to pick a side. Experienced traders often break down large-scale consolidations into 15, 30, or 60 days; currently, we are closest to the 15-day mark, which falls around the end of the long holiday. The window hasn't arrived yet, so range-bound tug-of-war is normal, and chasing orders risks getting stopped out both ways. Don't take sides prematurely; first see which side of the box is effectively broken before deciding to follow the trend or wait. Volume, price, funding rates, and ETF flows can serve as auxiliary indicators. Historical cycles only provide reference and do not guarantee repetition; risk control is always paramount. $ETH $SNDK #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Taking screenshots of mnemonic phrases is the most convenient, but it may also hand over your wallet to the cloud
The mnemonic phrase is the root of control over wallet assets. Taking a screenshot of it, saving it to your photo album or chat favorites may seem to solve the problem of losing the paper, but it could be automatically synced to the cloud, backup services, or other logged-in devices. Once the cloud account is hacked, attackers can restore the wallet without touching the original phone. Copying the text into online notes, email drafts, or password-unknown compressed files carries the same risk. Offline backups need to be fireproof, waterproof, and protected from others' access, and you also need to consider inheritance and not forgetting where you stored it. Security is never about choosing just one medium. No customer service, upgrade page, or airdrop requires users to provide the complete mnemonic phrase. Transfers on the $ETH chain cannot be reversed by the platform, and the window for remedy after leakage is usually very short. The goal of backup is that only authorized people can restore it, and it can still be found after device damage, not simply "making multiple copies."
Backups should also avoid being all in one place; otherwise, fire, moving, or a single theft can destroy all copies at once. Distributed storage must be accompanied by clear access rules. Any process that requires entering the mnemonic phrase on a webpage for "verification" should be regarded as an obvious danger signal.$USAR USAR: Leading the Independence of Heavy Rare Earths, Timely Layout on the Eve of Capacity Expansion
USAR is a leading vertically integrated heavy rare earth company in the United States, currently at a critical stage of technology implementation and capacity release, combining short-term rebound elasticity with long-term growth value.
From a technical perspective, the current stock price is $14.61, rebounding from a phase low of $13.955. The short-term resistance is at $14.8, which is the biggest pain point for 24-hour short positions; the core strong resistance zone is between $15.7 and $16.6, representing the mid-term moving average cost and a dense accumulation area of short positions, with a cumulative liquidation intensity of 972,000. A breakout with volume will trigger a short squeeze, opening up mid-term upside potential. Short-term support lies between $14.0 and $14.2.
From a fundamental perspective, the company owns a local heavy rare earth mine in Texas. The first phase of the acquired Serra Verde project in Brazil will be put into production by the end of next year, capable of meeting over 50% of global heavy rare earth demand outside China. In July this year, it successfully extracted commercial-grade heavy rare earth oxides, breaking the overseas technology monopoly. The future full industry chain layout is deeply tied to military demand, providing ample performance elasticity.
Compared to other sector players like MP and CRML, USAR has the purest heavy rare earth attributes and the clearest production schedule, making it a core stock in the U.S. rare earth domestic substitution theme. The current valuation is at a historical low, with intensive capacity catalysts, making it a good opportunity to accumulate on dips. Pay attention to production progress and policy implementation.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book, excluding fees
$CARDS sell slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for sell orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT are 1.08% and 23.62%, respectively. Large orders have about 22.55 percentage points more slippage.
$GALA buy slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT are 0.10% and 0.49%, respectively. Large orders have about 0.38 percentage points more slippage.
$SAND buy slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT are 0.11% and 0.43%, respectively. Large orders have about 0.32 percentage points more slippage. LOL, Blast shut down, leftover funds fled from Blast and incidentally contributed $1.4k in on-chain revenue to Blast
This $1.4k is already the highest single-day on-chain revenue Blast has had in over a year
Normally, Blast's on-chain revenue is only tens of dollars, and for a long time, it even had to take losses because there were no fees captured
Tie Shun and Blur were once so ambitious, now it's time to bury themNonfarm payrolls shocked, $BTC fell instead of rising; this is not a simple correction but a fundamental change in market logic.
📊 【First layer of logic: Why should it rise despite the negative data?】
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with the previous two months' data revised downward.
The market's first reaction: weakening employment and economic cooling reduce the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, causing short-term interest rates to fall. According to the old script, gold and BTC should have risen.
⚠️ 【Second layer of logic: After the US stock market opened, the tone suddenly changed!】
Weak employment does not mean yields will continue to decline!
Funds began to reprice inflation, crude oil, and the term premium brought by US fiscal policy.
Here is a critically important transmission chain:
Crude oil strengthens → long-term US Treasuries are sold off → market worries about fiscal deficits and long-term inflation → pushes up long-term yields → directly suppresses gold and BTC.
This explains why, the moment the data came out, US Treasury yields briefly fell but quickly rebounded. The macro market is layered and complex; judging only by surface data leads to misinterpretation. $ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC is back near $84.5K after touching $87.2K, and the latest macro data just changed the setup
September payrolls added only 29K jobs, pushing expectations for an October Fed hike lower. But here’s the catch: long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, while Bitcoin fund inflows slowed sharply to ~$150M this week from ~$3.5B last week
So I’m watching the reaction, not blindly trading the Fed narrative
$82.8K is the key support. Hold it and $80K–$78K comes into play10.3｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: liquidity is thin over the weekend, mainly short on rallies, no chasing longs without incremental positive news
$BTC is currently around 84600. Last night, the non-farm payrolls only added 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and August was revised down to 133,000. The price instantly surged to 87200, then was pushed back below 84000 and consolidated. The issue is not the candlestick itself, but that the 87300 level still hasn't held with volume; longs accumulated on the positive news, but with thin weekend liquidity, the rally is easily crushed
$ETH is now around 2680, moving in sync with BTC, last night's high of 2778 also failed to hold
No major data over the weekend, the real risk is liquidity. The weak non-farm data has already lowered the October rate hike expectations, but the price couldn't hold 87200, indicating selling pressure above remains. In this situation, if no one supports it during the Asia-Europe session, BTC could retest 83800 or even drop to 82000
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 86000-87200, target around 83800-82000.
ETH: Short between 2740-2780, target around 2650-2580.
If BTC breaks above 87300 with volume, cancel shorts immediately, never stubbornly fight the trend.
What do you think will happen after the weekend? Will BTC first drop to 82000 or break through 87300 directly? An old wallet dormant for 15.4 years since 2011 has moved, transferring 20.43 $BTC with fees under 1 dollar, moving into SegWit, without touching any exchange deposit addresses.
The market is indeed starting to shout again: Mentougou is about to crash, Silk Road old coins are coming out.
Don’t rush. The early transfer records of this wallet are indeed tagged with Mt. Gox and Silk Road, but that’s because in 2011 there were only a few channels for transferring coins, which doesn’t mean today’s batch of coins are those “dirty bullets.” The key is the action—no deposits, no orders placed, no signatures entering any known exchange hot wallets. It’s just an old miner moving their holdings, don’t scare yourself.
What’s really worth looking at is the flavor when the following data sets are put together.
Glassnode confirmed today: the sell wall of $BTC between $85,000 and $85,500 above was forcibly eaten by buy orders, and the remaining sell orders have mostly been withdrawn. This position was suppressed for almost a week, every time it surged up it was pushed back down, now the wall is gone. The selling liquidity above is decreasing, not increasing.
But more interesting is another set of data. In the past 30 days, the scale of stablecoins transferred by whales into Binance increased from 21.7 billion to 30.5 billion, a growth of over 40%. On one side, ETF outflows and the market shouting “fund heat cooling down,” on the other side, whales quietly moving ammunition into exchanges. When these two things happen simultaneously, guess which is noise and which is signal?
That 148.7 million ETF outflow ended a nine-day inflow streak, true, but the cumulative inflow over those nine days was 3 billion USD. One outflow reversing the trend? Too early.
As for the whales, I have to be honest. The market is still shouting that they are “holding 33,950 $ETH and 409 $BTC long positions,” but on-chain data shows they are continuously reducing positions, currently holding 35,200 $ETH and 272 $BTC, with total unrealized profit narrowing from the peak to $73,000. This is not a “holding bullish” script, it’s a fight while retreating. Big players are clearer-headed than retail investors, don’t bolster yourself with others’ old positions.
Looking at the macro side. September’s nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, expected was 90,000, and the previous value was revised down to 133,000, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. After this report, the market’s pricing for continued rate hikes this month dropped directly to 13.8%, and the probability of no rate hike soared above 86%. Lower interest rate expectations mean easing for risk assets.
Last night $BTC plunged from 87,200 to 85,200, $ETH dropped from 2,777 to 2,690, with total liquidations approaching 600 million, including 128 million from shorts and longs also taking hits. This is a two-way shakeout, first squeezing shorts then killing longs, clearing out weak hands.
My judgment remains unchanged. Old coins waking up doesn’t mean selling, the disappearance of the sell wall doesn’t mean no one is selling, one ETF outflow doesn’t mean funds are retreating. Whales are stocking up, selling pressure is being digested, macro is turning dovish. If these three lines resonate, an accelerated upward move is just a matter of time.
Don’t move your core positions. Short-term spikes are noise, holding on is the skill.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ZEC yesterday indicated that the pullback is not over yet, watch: 1280/1300. Today the lowest dipped to 1270 where buying support began. See if it closes around 1300 today; if it stabilizes after the next hour, you can lightly position long. If it breaks below 1270, it will return to the 1000-1300 range box, and you can buy around 1000. Set stop loss around 980. Personal opinion.Non-farm data released, $BTC sharply broke out of the consolidation range then fell back, with 24-hour liquidations exceeding 570 million at one point, cutting two groups of people at both ends.
The non-farm payrolls announced last night for September only added 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000. Moreover, July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000, with July's data even turning negative.
When the data came out, the brothers in the group chat exploded, cursing and complaining that the US was faking data. But we have to admit, whether it's fake or not, the situation looks very good:
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 5.18, oil prices are also declining, giving risk assets a breathing window. The rate hike expectation has even shifted to December.
Controlling market expectations to control inflation is one of the Fed's jobs. Data fabrication is one of the strategies.
So the divergence in capital flows has intensified: BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of $102.7 million on Thursday (IBIT alone nearly $200 million), ending outflows; $ETH ETFs have outflows for the third consecutive day, totaling over $110 million in three days—the narrative of BTC strong and ETH weak is deepening.
The SEC made two moves: a 760-page custody rule allowing institutions to self-custody crypto assets, and a joint statement with the CFTC clarifying that spot digital commodities can be traded on registered exchanges. Regulatory infrastructure is being added.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, plus the National Day holiday, so the recovery rally is likely to be on low volume; don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. Everyone's piling in
$ETH Ethereum long position at 2671, let's see if it can pull back above 2700
$ARB long position opened at 0.1925 after waking up
Let's see if it can reach above 0.2, moving in sync with Ethereum
Ethereum is still rising but ARB has pulled back a bit, hold steady at 0.195
$ZEC around 1315, really want to go long and test the waters, it broke below 1300 last night, Ethereum dropped 100 points, and it did the same
Last night US stocks surged straight up, Bitcoin also shot up to around 87000, Ethereum followed upwards
Then suddenly after 10 o'clock, the whale flipped faster than flipping a page, smashed down hard, burying all the long chasers
Good news fully priced in then reversed to cut, if everyone can see the good news, then it's not really good news
But now I think it's possible to go long
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Continuing to share two sets of long positions, one profitable and one losing, this is the truest reflection of the market.
NEAR 20x full position long, holding 100,000 tokens, average holding price 4.5690, current unrealized profit 27,291U, return rate 112.76%. This trend was captured quite smoothly, with the account profit doubling, but the maintenance margin rate is only 2.25%. With 20x leverage, even a small pullback can significantly erode profits, so I dare not be careless.
On the other hand, BNB is also a 20x full position long, holding 1,000 tokens, average holding price 779.89, currently unrealized loss 8,526U, drawdown 21.96%. After entering, the market weakened and got stuck, maintenance margin rate is 3%, full position holding pressure is considerable.
Trading is never just about always winning. With the same 20x full position, some trades follow the trend and profit, others go against the trend and get stuck. High leverage amplifies profits but also amplifies risks.
Unrealized profit is just a number on paper, unrealized loss is a real account drawdown. Do not be greedy when following the trend, do not stubbornly hold when against the trend, always keep an eye on margin safety, that is the fundamental way to survive in this market.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, short positions were first eliminated
$BTC current price 86400U, up 3.2% in 24 hours.
Yesterday the data looked pessimistic, and many wanted to short.
What is this price level:
86400 is the upper boundary of the recently broken consolidation range.
The 3.2% rise is not a slow climb; it’s a rapid inflow of funds after the data release.
Who is placing orders here:
Short stop-loss orders are placed just above the range’s upper boundary.
Once the price touches, the stop-loss automatically turns into buy orders.
Buy orders push the price, triggering the next batch of stop-losses.
Those wanting to short are focusing on macro data.
At the moment the data lands, what moves first is positions, not judgment.
Technical analysis tends to fail at this time.
This $BTC rally is driven by the shorts’ own stop-losses.
It’s not new bullish money, but forced liquidations.
Stop-loss orders placed at that range have already been swept away.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC @JM BTC / ETH intraday long position fire control, real-time data (current price based on market quotes, do not use old prices) 🎯
BTC/USDT current price $84,592 (24h -0.02% | High 87,222 Low 83,840)
📡 Daily strong bullish (price ≫ EMA21 82,499 ≫ EMA50 78,542), 4h EMA21 84,490, 1h EMA200 84,118 form a pullback support zone; current price is slightly below the 24h range midline, indicating a pullback structure
📍 Ambush zone: 84,300–84,540 (4h EMA21 + 1h EMA200 support zone, do not chase higher near current price)
🛡️ Defense line: $83,750 (invalid if breaks 24h low 83,840, -0.9%)
🎯 TP1: $85,100 (+1R, halve position at 1h EMA21/85k level)
🎯 TP2: $85,760 (+2R)
🎯 Upside target: $87,220 (24h high)
$ETH
⚠️ Technical analysis is for reference only, the market carries risks — JM Trading Team$BTC is currently around 86,400 USDT, up about 3.2% in 24 hours. In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of around 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and previous monthly employment data was revised downward. After the data release, the market quickly repriced expectations for the Fed's October policy, with BTC short-term capital flowing back noticeably, once pushing above $87,000. This further shows that relying solely on technical patterns can easily fail when facing macro data of this level. The original consolidation range was directly broken, and after short positions concentrated stop-losses, the upward momentum further amplified. $ETH Currently about 2,745 USDT, up 2.1% in 24 hours. ETH rebounded with BTC, but the momentum was relatively mild, and it now seemed more like waiting for further capital inflows. In the short term, focus on the 2,780–2,800 range. If volume does not continue to expand, chasing gains requires caution. $DOGE Currently about 0.162 USDT, up 4.7% in 24 hours. DOGE's volatility is more influenced by market sentiment and capital flows; once the market heats up, the price fluctuations will significantly increase. In the short term, attention can be paid to trading volume and capital flows, but without sustained capital support, chasing on highs is not cost-effective. This non-farm payroll sends a clear signal to the market: cooling employment is increasing expectations for the Fed to pause further rate hikes, but inflation and high-maturity US Treasury yields remain variables that cannot be ignoredThe moment the non-farm payroll data was released, I laughed.
Not because the employment data was bad, but because I felt sorry for those still holding long positions in SanDisk.
New jobs added were only 29,000, expected 90,000, far below expectations; unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Market expectations for rate cuts heated up, Bitcoin surged directly to 87,000, with an intraday increase of over 3%.
In contrast, SanDisk remains stuck at 1737, without even a decent rebound.
There is a saying in the market: "Good news that doesn't cause a rise is actually bad news."
The macro environment is clearly warming up, risk assets are collectively strengthening, so why is SanDisk motionless? The essence is that no incremental funds are willing to enter.
David Tepper completely liquidated his position in Q2, not leaving a single share; Renaissance Technologies nearly wiped out its holdings, reducing by 99.4%. Morningstar's fair value estimate is only 1000, the current price premium has already exceeded 70%.
Institutions continue to flee, valuations are sky-high, and there is no elasticity despite positive stimuli. These three factors combined make the direction actually very clear.Sharing two current long positions that are stuck, to show friends in the group the other side of real trading.
SNDK long position with 4x leverage, full position, holding 30 units, currently floating a loss of 1662U, drawdown 12.89%. Small position for trial and error, there is volatility, but the position is controllable.
Focus on the HYPE position, 7000 units long with 4x leverage, full position, floating loss of 32456U, drawdown 20.7%. This market move was below expectations, continuous pullback after entry, the drawdown on the account looks painful.
Many people only like to show profitable trades, rarely willing to face floating losses. Contract trading inherently involves both profits and losses; when you have big profits, there are also stages of being stuck and holding positions.
4x leverage may seem not high, but full position mode still hides risks. Once the maintenance margin rate is breached, forced liquidation will be triggered. Holding positions is not a reckless gamble; you must think ahead about your bottom line, reduce positions and stop losses without hesitation. The market will not always follow our predictions; respect the market and control your position size—that is the fundamental for long-term survival.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The nonfarm payrolls were shockingly bad, and $BTC's first reaction was to surge to 87,238—but it didn’t hold that breath, and a few hours later, all the gains were given back.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected roughly 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, also higher than expected. Even worse, the previous two months were sharply revised down—August from 162,000 to 133,000, July from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs added over two months. September hourly wages rose only 0.1% month-over-month, showing cooling in both employment and wages.
After the data release, the market reacted textbook-style: weak employment lowered the probability of another rate hike in October, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all rose together, US Treasury yields fell accordingly, while oil prices dropped more than 3%. BTC followed this logic and surged to 87,238.3.
But screenshots show this high point didn’t hold—RSI dropped from an overbought zone near 80 to an oversold zone near 20, and the current price fell back to 84,673.7, basically giving back all the "data-driven" gains. This indicates the news triggered an emotional reaction at the moment it landed, but the buying momentum didn’t follow through, and the rally couldn’t sustain its own weight.
The real variable isn’t whether the nonfarm payrolls were bad or not, but whether the October rate hike will proceed as planned—the rise in the unemployment rate in this report is mainly due to an increase in labor force participation, not simply worsening employment. How the Federal Reserve interprets this detail is more critical than the headline numbers.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $AXS surged into trending searches but only rose 8.4%, volume ratio 5.541 tells the truth
Wow, $AXS quietly climbed into CoinGecko trending searches, only +8.4% in 24h, but the money arrived first—24h trading volume 12,317,950 USDT, compared to the 30-day average volume ratio of 5.541. My direct judgment: bullish, if the pullback to 1.215 doesn't break, I'll buy the dip.
Bullish logic: First, volume, the 30-day average volume ratio of 5.541 is a clear signal, the previous hour's 15m average volume is 198,065, real money is entering. Second, structure, daily RSI at 67.6 is strong, MACD golden cross above zero line with expanding red bars, MA7 above MA30 for the 14th day. Third, position, 30-day range position at 0.845, fear-greed index 67, market phase is offensive.
Resistance above: 1.2963 (24h high)
Support below: 1.14796 (4h SAR)
Watershed: reclaiming 1.263 restarts the rally, losing 1.215 turns bearish, breaking 1.14796 means exit
Volume surge, trending searches, and bullish alignment of three indicators resonate together, execute buy on pullback. Current price 1.2328 entry, stop loss 1.14796, breakout above 1.2963 targets new space. Watching the market, follow for the next signal.
$AXS $BTCUS nonfarm payrolls in September were only about 31,000, significantly below the market's previous expectation of about 90,000; The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, average hourly earnings declined year-on-year growth to about 3.0%, and employment figures for the first two months were revised down by about 60,000 in total. From these data, signs of cooling in the US labor market are indeed becoming increasingly apparent. Logically, weakening economic data may strengthen market expectations of a Fed slowdown in tightening or even a future policy shift, supporting risk assets. BTC also surged rapidly at the time, once reaching around $87,300. But the problem is—positive macro data does not mean prices can only keep rising. BTC surged and quickly retreated, reaching an intraday high of about $87,200, then hitting a low near $83,200, and now rebounding back to around $84,500. This trend is actually quite typical: the news is bullish, but funds may choose to cash at high levels, causing the price to "rise first then fall." I myself shorted near $83,500 yesterday, originally expecting resistance above, but BTC broke directly upward. This trade also reminds me that macro logic can help assess the environment, but what truly determines whether a trade holds is the price itself. Next, I will focus on two areas: 📌 Upward: around $85,500. If BTC can regain its hold and trading volume increases simultaneously, it indicates that buying may be taking over the short-term structure again. 📌 Below: 83,200Why do the big players keep making money? The secret is here
Actually, the secret is:
1. They have more capital than you
2. Their positions are relatively low
3. They are more patient than you
4. And again, they have more capital than you
Talking about technical aspects, analyzing the market,
it's all nonsense, it doesn't exist,
it's just guessing, there's no real technique.
You guess, will $BTC go up or down in October.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Today's position sharing: main position is a BTC long with 50x full margin layout, holding 140 coins at an average price of 82869.3. Currently, the unrealized profit is over 250,000 U, with a return rate exceeding 105%. This position has been held for a long time, enduring the volatile shakeout to capture this upward dividend.
A small position is allocated to SKHY long with 7x full margin, showing slight unrealized profit, used for trial rotation in small-cap coins.
But everyone must clearly see the data: BTC at this level maintains a margin rate of only 1.00%, with a liquidation price at 77712.6, which is like a sword hanging overhead. High leverage profits look tempting, but if the market quickly retraces even slightly, liquidation will be triggered instantly.
Unrealized profit is just a number on paper; only realized profit counts as earnings. Leverage trading can make money quickly, but a single large bearish candle can wipe it out. For any position, never lose respect for risk.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $SPCXB's strong momentum continues, but crowding risk is also rising
$SPCXB is up 6.56% in the last 24 hours, currently priced at 158.92. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 96 and 75 respectively. The strength is real, and so is the crowding. The question is not whether it can keep going, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Price levels are more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 6.29% above the 1-hour support at 148.93 and about 0.65% below the resistance at 159.95. Looking at these two distances together reveals which side requires more evidence. Focusing only on price changes can easily mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet.
Volume does not support the price movement: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.03 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can still move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the trend. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this phase as an equipment acceptance test: running without load doesn’t mean completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels provide results first, then discussing direction will be more honest. Do you think this is a normal overheating of a strong trend, or has the risk already run ahead of the space? The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the trend and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.Brothers, the market just delivered a crazy rollercoaster! 🎢 $BTC suddenly jumped nearly 2,000 points, while $ETH ripped higher in minutes. My $ARB 50x short took a serious hit — entry around 0.22025, with the position showing a huge unrealized loss. Then, just as quickly, BTC and ETH pulled back and the market flipped again. I re-entered an $ARB short around 0.2076 after the first position was shaken out. ARB dipped near 0.206 and stalled. Now I’m watching closely. If the rebound fails, beaEvery time it rises because of the non-farm payrolls, it falls back to the original place the next day.
Yesterday I originally planned to short Ethereum at 2740, but I got liquidated too many times. Plus, I'm stuck with SK Hynix. I had a short on SanDisk at 1800, but I sold it off at 1744 and missed the opportunity. So I lost interest and gave up. Damn SK Hynix.Yesterday it was still surging, but when I woke up, the market had a major pullback: BTC fell back to around $84K, ETH returned to around $2,660, and it felt like the gains from the past few days were almost wiped out. What really scared me was not just how much the price dropped, but that my position was just a little close to hitting the forced pull-off line. My hands were shaking in that moment...... Fortunately, the amount of capital this time was small, otherwise this volatility would have been really hard to bear. The background for this decline is also quite obvious. In September, the US nonfarm payroll index only added 29,000 jobs, far below the market's previous expectation of about 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; Moreover, the employment data for July and August was revised down by 60,000 jobs. After the data was released, the market readjusted its judgment on the Fed's future interest rate path. BTC once quickly fell above $86K, and ETH came under pressure as well. Looking back now, I'm increasingly certain of one thing: I might really not be suited for long-term holding. It's not the market's fault, but my trading personality. When I first opened a position, I was actually very clear-headed. If I went in the wrong direction, I would cut losses; when I saw an opportunity, I would go long or short; if it wasn't right, I would immediately exit—I didn't hesitate at all. But once I held a position for a few days, my mindset started to change. I started thinking: "Maybe I can go up a bit longer." "This level is probably just a normal pullback." "It might break out in a few days." Then gradually, trading shifted to making excuses for my own positions. When prices rise, they are reluctant to take profits; when prices fall, they are unwilling to cut losses or even start to stopNIGHT current price is around 0.05129, with moving averages still maintaining a bullish alignment; the market has not given any effective weakening signals. The liquidation chart shows an abnormal accumulation of long positions around 0.050; a pullback is not a bad thing, as cleaning out floating positions makes it easier to move up lightly. The area above 0.0527 is an overlap zone of profit-taking and short liquidations, which must be absorbed with volume, otherwise a false breakout is likely to form.
Just put the meal into the community locker, and the order reminder call came in again; a quick glance shows the order is still unfilled.
Entry range is 0.0498 to 0.0505, with a defensive stop loss at 0.0486. The first take profit target is 0.0527; after a breakout, the second take profit target is pushed to 0.0542. If 0.049 is lost and not quickly recovered, the bullish structure is broken, so abandon immediately without waiting for a rebound.
$NIGHT
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
@OKX星球 The question "Are you ready?" is not about judgment, but about position size. If fully invested, a drop will hurt. If out of the market, a rise will be missed.
#BTC The current structure has no clear direction. After being rejected at 87K, both bulls and bears are waiting for the next signal. Instead of guessing a crash, it's better to think clearly about how much position to hold at this point.Blast's announcement today set an example for more public chains without actual use cases and scenario support, which is: it's better to shut down than to stubbornly hold on.
Looking back, the Blast team first created Blur, making some micro-innovations around points mining and liquidity, posing an effective threat to OpenSea;
Then Tieshun tried to replicate this path by building a public chain with an application mindset, heavily promoting a points system that allowed ETH and stablecoins to serve dual purposes—earning yield and collecting points. They quickly amassed 2 billion TVL, enjoying a moment of glory and being hailed by the industry as genius devs.
Later, the points kept inflating, annoying whales; mini-game dApps flooded the market but lacked sustained demand. Ultimately, Blast failed to overcome the hurdle of "Day 1 only starts after TGE."
With L2s and L1s everywhere, users and developers need a compelling "why you" reason; the rise of ecosystems and applications is not a given.$SAND SAND has experienced a strong surge, with a 24-hour increase of over 10%, showing strong short-term explosive power.
Looking at the whale sample data: 126 long positions with an average entry price of 0.06135, a profit ratio as high as 99.20%, and obvious unrealized gains; 137 short positions with an average entry price of 0.06437, the vast majority are at a loss, and the negative funding rate also indirectly reflects the heavy pressure on the shorts.
After the rapid short-term rally, many profit-taking positions have accumulated, so be cautious of the risk of a pullback caused by phased capital realization.
Offensive level: 0.0712, Defensive level: 0.0630. Tonight, watch $BTC, no need to monitor a bunch of indicators, just two numbers are enough.
First, $87,000. If it breaks through and holds here, it means the bulls have regained short-term control. Next, watch $88,500—$90,000.
Second, $84,000. If it can't hold here, the short-term structure will continue to be under pressure. Below, watch $83,000—$82,500.
Currently, $BTC is tugging back and forth around $84,500, and the real direction still needs confirmation.
So don't rush, the key position has been reached, and the market will naturally provide the answer.$BTC is most likely to get people hyped when it experiences this kind of surge and pullback.
Intraday, it once touched above $87,000, then retreated to around $84,500. Right now, you can't simply treat a single surge as a breakout; the price needs further confirmation.
On the upside, focus on $87,000; after breaking and holding above it, look towards $88,500—$90,000.
On the downside, watch $84,000; if it breaks below, the short term might continue testing $83,000—$82,500.
Before the market gives an answer, don't make decisions on its behalf.