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BTC is sideways and dormant, altcoins are collectively bleeding! The working people's National Day feels a bit cold
On the evening of October 1st, the market was really sleepy to watch. BTC hovered around 83,926 all day (-0.25%), with MA5 to MA20 lines tightly converged on the 1-minute chart, and trading volume extremely shrunk (only 10,000 U per candle), both bulls and bears completely in vacation mode. Resistance at 84,044 above is pressing down, support at 83,871 below is barely holding, KDJ (55.4/55.4) midpoint is dulled, showing no sense of direction.
But while the market is sideways, why are the altcoins in our hands falling like dogs?
Look at the news above the chart to understand: "Liquidity re-pledge gold rush is fading." The market has no incremental funds entering, it's purely a game of existing capital. When BTC doesn't fall or only slightly dips, it acts like a huge pump, sucking all the available funds away to safety. Altcoins lack buying support, and even a slight selling pressure triggers a chain of declines. $BTC $ETH $CORE #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Bitcoin has a strange problem right now.
ETF investors are still buying.
But Bitcoin isn't moving higher.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded another net inflow on September 29, extending the recent streak.
Yet BTC remains around $83K after failing to hold its recent move toward $87K.
Buying is happening.
The question is:
Why isn't price responding more strongly?$PENGU trending with a -4.3% collision, only recognizing 0.00964 and 0.009785
$PENGU surged to CoinGecko trending, but the price remains at 0.00964, 24h -4.3%. Direction: bullish, current price is a dip buy.
Daily RSI 57.9 slightly strong, MACD golden cross above zero line, MA7/MA30 bullish alignment, daily ADX 41.2 — consolidation, not a reversal.
Funding rate 5e-05 neutral, OI down -11.59% compared to 9-30 archive, long-short account ratio 1.1377. 24h volume 20,784,657 USDT, volume ratio 1.562 expanding, latest 15m volume 201,388,039, far exceeding the previous hour average volume 12,582,902.
BTC 83991.42 flat, altcoins have rotation potential.
Resistance above: 0.009785, 0.009964, 0.010086
Support below: 0.009546, 0.009463
Open long at 0.00964, stop loss if breaking 0.009463, target 0.009785, watch for volume to reach 0.010086; unconditional exit if breaking 0.00847 (daily MA30).
Like and follow, will alert you immediately on breakouts and breakdowns.
$PENGU $BTCPCE is the direct trigger for this round of volatility. After the core PCE was released, BTC briefly surged about 0.6%, jumping from around 84,000 to 84,305, then continued to climb to 85,353; spot gold rose in sync by $14, and the dollar index fell 15 basis points to 101.05. The market quickly went through the logic of "data leaning dovish → dollar under pressure → risk assets benefiting."
But such a rally should not be overly excited. The core year-on-year at 3.3% and month-on-month at 0.3% only met expectations, so there is no macro directional reversal. The key reason prices can rise quickly is still thin liquidity: the combined depth of the top five bid and ask levels is less than 0.07 BTC, so a small number of buy orders can push the quotes up. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 8 million USD, two rounds, an AI perpetual platform made by the DEXTools team.
My first reaction when I saw this news wasn’t excitement, but a reminder of how I used to chase early-stage projects.
Back then, seeing “seed round” and “well-known institutions investing” would get me hyped, thinking I’d found a treasure. What happened? TGE kept getting delayed, and by the time it actually launched, the hype had already cooled off.
This time PERPTools has funding from BigBrain, Animoca, NEAR, and others, so the lineup isn’t bad.
But pay attention to one number: TGE is scheduled for Q4 2026.
That’s still two years away.
A lot can happen in two years—team running away, the sector cooling off completely, narrative changing three times, all possible.
So my current attitude is simple: fundraising is fundraising, TGE is TGE, and there’s a river in between.
For projects like this, I at most just remember the name; I won’t overestimate it just because of 8 million.
The real time to act is three months before TGE to see if it’s still alive.
My prediction: by then, this project will either be forgotten or it will have truly launched.
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $NEAR Here's a counterintuitive take: $DOGE dropped 5.2% today to 0.086, yet the SEC-CFTC joint effort put it in the same "digital commodity" basket as BTC and ETH. Is the negative news fully priced in or is this a pullback continuation?
Regulatory authority shifts to the CFTC, completely removing the "unregistered security" label. This is a qualitative exemption—it doesn't exempt volatility or a single tweet from Musk tanking the price.
The market has priced in about 40%. Commodity classification lowers compliance costs, but DOGE lacks cash flow support. The positive is a valuation framework reassessment, not performance.
Looser classification but no cash flow, holding 40% position. Will hold at 0.082 and reduce position if it breaks 0.078. DOGE shed the security label but can't shake off its meme fate.Only five days left until the $OKB launch event, and $OKB's trend is really holding back. I think now is a good opportunity to position, for three reasons:
First, the volatility is extremely narrow, with intraday swings less than 1.5%, and short-term moving averages all squeezed together. This pattern is a classic pre-breakout night; the main players are neither selling nor accumulating, just waiting for the event to provide direction.
Second, the relative strength is solid. Over the past seven days, while the market dropped, it still rose 2% against the trend, staying firmly in the top tier. Once this kind of asset gets a catalyst, its explosive power is often stronger than anyone else's.
Third, the underlying demand is quietly growing. On the X Layer, OKB's usage as Gas and governance anchor has been increasing steadily with ecosystem expansion, and the buyback and burn mechanism remains unchanged. These slow-moving variables always get hyped again around each launch event.
My judgment: before the event, it will most likely continue to consolidate; the longer the consolidation, the fiercer the breakout. It's fine to enter now with a small position and wait.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ZEC $ZEC bulls, don’t get trapped by the hype. 👀
Right now, I’m watching one thing: the chart, not the noise.
Whales can split shares, push narratives, release flashy news, and create all kinds of hype. But none of that changes what the price is actually doing.
ZEC dropped from 1697 → 1403, the moving averages are still bearish, every rebound is getting sold, and volume keeps fading.
That’s exactly what a bull trap can look like.
#DailyOrbit #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
What is the difference between buying spot and 1x long?
Although from the perspective of profit elasticity, buying spot and opening 1x leverage long have basically the same price increase when the price rises, the underlying legal ownership, holding costs, liquidation risk, and application scenarios of the two are fundamentally different.
Core features of buying spot
Own real underlying tokens. You can freely transfer them to your own on-chain cold wallet and enjoy all ecological rights such as native on-chain governance, staking rewards, and interactive airdrops.
No liquidation risk. As long as the token does not go to zero and the platform/private key is secure, you can hold indefinitely across cycles waiting for market recovery.
Zero ongoing holding costs. You only pay a one-time transaction fee when buying and selling; long-term static holdings do not incur any overnight interest or additional charges.
No leverage risk, fully controlled by yourself. Once stored in a personal cold wallet, it completely isolates liquidity crises, runs, or bankruptcy risks of centralized exchanges.
Core features of 1x long
Only hold virtual derivative certificates.
Potential forced liquidation mechanism.
Exchanges set a "maintenance margin rate"; when an extreme crash hits the maintenance line, the system will forcibly liquidate the position.
Margin itself is tokens; price drops cause a double hit of "expanded unrealized losses + collateral shrinkage," usually leading to direct liquidation at about a 50% drop.
Must bear ongoing funding rates.
Funds must remain long-term within centralized exchanges; if the platform encounters a run or technical failure, fund security depends on the exchange's solvency.
🤑The status of the crypto trio today: one is putting on airs, one is dozing off, and one just took a tumble.
BTC is like an old chess player holding a pose, reaching out at 84,000 then pulling back, setting up the board around 83,000. The ETF is still moving goods into the warehouse, but whales slipped a few boxes out the side door. It's not that it can't go up, it just doesn't want to right now.
ETH is like a stone Buddha in deep meditation, a straight line around 2,670. Nearly 5% of tokens are staked and the chain is busy as can be, but the price is like an afternoon classroom—everyone's head down on the desk. No strength in the drop, no power in the rise, you guys fuss around, I'll take a nap first.
SOL is the most erratic today, at 117, down just over 3%. When BTC coughs a little, it plops straight down. Fast is fast, and the pain is real, but after dusting off, it's already eyeing the next step.
BTC holds the stage, ETH is killing time, SOL just fell and is rubbing its knee. The nonfarm payroll and PCE reports haven't been released yet, and none of the trio wants to make the first move. You watch the market with sweaty palms, but these three are taking a stroll or a nap.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Today I came across a news that made me laugh for a long time: The US-listed company Thumzup issued a shareholder letter saying that they not only transformed into crypto but actually opened a mining farm to mine Dogecoin. The mining machines are clanking away, and the board directly showed the accounts to the shareholders—if Dogecoin hits $0.3, they earn 31 million a year; if it hits $1, they earn 103 million a year.
I saw this at the cafeteria at noon, stood there holding my tray and stared for two minutes until a lady behind me urged me to move.
Just think about the weight of this matter. Before, when people said Dogecoin was good, it was just our community insiders saying it. Now what? A listed company has put it into an official document for shareholders, treating it as a business model. What kind of business is mining? Heavy asset: buying machines, paying electricity bills, renting factory space—all require upfront real cash investment. They dare to invest because they bet on Dogecoin’s long-term rise, betting even harder than we do.
One coin, held by retail investors, swept up by whales, entering ETFs, mined by listed companies. The players at this table get more hardcore every year.
Hold on. They vote with mining machines, we vote with time, but the direction is the same. $DOGE The number of transfers hitting a new high might also just mean funds are circulating in place
The more $ETH on-chain transfers there are, the more it superficially looks like strong demand, but the number of transfers itself does not distinguish between payments, arbitrage, liquidation, internal aggregation, and bot cycling. The same funds can move continuously across multiple protocols, generating a high number of transactions without bringing in an equivalent scale of new capital.
Therefore, the number of transfers should be analyzed together with the distribution of transfer amounts, independent interacting parties, the proportion of repeated addresses, and net stablecoin inflows. If the proportion of small repeated transactions suddenly expands, it might be programmatic activity; if large settlements and long-term balances increase simultaneously, that is closer to real capital accumulation. Looking only at total transaction count can easily mistake busyness for prosperity.
Another misconception is directly comparing raw transaction counts from different stages. Batch processing, account abstraction, and layer-2 scaling change how many on-chain records correspond to a single user intent. After technical structural changes, old and new metrics may not be equivalent, so trend judgments must first clarify the statistical objects.
If the statistical method itself changes, a new baseline should be established; you cannot use high-frequency records under the new structure to prove no growth under the old structure.
It's easy for the network to be lively, but the hard part is having funds willing to stay after every burst of activity.PCE boost briefly fails, bond market dominates the market trend
This inflation boost couldn't sustain the market at all; after a brief rebound of a few minutes, it quickly weakened. The core issue is not within the crypto space itself but the continuous suppression by the bond market.
In the early morning, $BTC repeatedly surged to test resistance levels but never effectively broke through, ultimately giving back all gains. ETH also surged and then fell back, with the overall market weak and volatile. Market liquidations of longs and shorts are relatively balanced, with no one-sided dump or shakeout.
Even though the PCE data eased rate hike concerns, the high-level long-term US Treasury yields directly offset all positives, locking the upside for risk assets.
Capital signals are even more worrisome. BTC ETF has seen considerable long-term net inflows, but recent new capital inflows have nearly halved, showing a serious lack of bullish relay. $ETH ETF also ended its consecutive days of net inflows and experienced capital outflows.
At the same time, leveraged funds are actively withdrawing; BTC contract open interest has sharply declined, with most traders taking profits and waiting, causing on-exchange long sentiment to cool rapidly.
No price rise despite positive news, exhaustion of incremental funds, and ongoing macro pressure—does the current market count as a classic case of "all good news priced in"? Brothers, feel free to discuss and share your thoughts!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $USDe supply increased by over 700 million in just over a month
Ethena mentioned this figure in the September review.
$USDe is now the second largest collateral asset on Morpho.
Where does this money come from:
$USDe is minted by collateralizing assets like $ETH.
After minting, it is deposited into Morpho to be lent out.
How is this figure calculated:
700 million is the net increase, the amount newly minted minus redeemed within a month.
It’s not a single large deposit from one person.
Short-term traders watch the market for signals, but the real signals are in the collateral data.
More collateral means more borrowing capacity.
The borrowed money is very likely to return to the market.
The collateral data changed, but the price hasn’t moved yet.
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $ETH $ENA two cycles are in conflict, who will admit the mistake first?
$ENA 24h +3.00%, current price 0.261. If you only look at these two numbers, it's easy to label the market as "strong" or "weak" directly. What’s really worth discussing is: the 1-hour is relatively weak, but the 4-hour is relatively strong. The short-term and the larger cycle are not aligned, which usually determines whether there will be repeated fluctuations more than a single day’s rise or fall.
First, look at the position. The price is about 1.80% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2563, and about 7.70% away from the resistance at 0.2811. These two distances place the current profit potential and the cost of error side by side. The closer to the boundary, the more likely it is to chase a single candlestick purely on emotion and overlook the real invalidation point.
Then look at the two cycles. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.26331482, indicating a weak structure; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.25925502, indicating a strong structure. The short cycle reflects sentiment faster, while the larger cycle better constrains the space. When both align, watch out for crowding; when they conflict, watch out for back-and-forth sweeps.🏦 Citi just raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113K — up from $82,000
Ether got the same treatment, lifted to $3,028 from $2,240 $ETH
Most people will read the headline and move on
The detail I'm watching is the path they drew to get there: roughly $5B in net ETF inflows projected over the next year, plus a macro backdrop Citi calls favorable
$BTC The long position on $ZEC took a loss, but it’s a lesson learned.
The price of ZEC has already broken below the long-term uptrend line, which indeed met my exit rule when opening the position: exit when the trend breaks.
From a larger scale perspective, this price break might be a false breakout, but I still chose to close the position immediately. The key reason is that the position size was too large, causing excessive capital fluctuation.
@OKX中文 ⚠️ $ONE dropped 16% in 24 hours to around $0.0023.
The -0.153% funding rate suggests shorts are heavily crowded, increasing the risk of sudden volatility and sharp wicks.
With security concerns, on-chain disruptions, and migration issues still unresolved, caution remains important.
$ONE $ETH $ZECBTC is bearish on both the 4-hour and daily charts. I have cleared my positions and dare not open new ones, only defending. Around $81,000 is the short-term key support, while $87,360 is the resistance that must be broken for an upward move. If the resistance is broken, the next target will be $100,000; if the support fails, the price may retest around $75,000. My personal view is that the recent rise has been too much and a correction is needed to clear leverage.Today, high Beta suddenly came back to life: HYPE rebounded nearly 5% in one day, WLD surged nearly 8%, and SUI also reclaimed 1.17. A few days ago, we were still discussing who would break first; today, funds have started to chase elasticity again. The real question has become: Is this wave a trend restart, or a second round of emotional rebound in a weak market?
#HighBetaChasingFundsAgain
#SmallCoinsEnteringSecondRecovery
$HYPE is currently around 91.3, up nearly 5% in 24 hours, but still has significant room before the historical high of 98.04. 89–90 is now the first support; look for a breakthrough at 92–93 first. Only after firmly standing above 94–95 can it be considered to have completely shaken off the previous pullback structure.
$SUI is currently around 1.17, up about 1.7% in 24 hours. 1.13–1.15 is the first defense, while 1.18–1.20 has become resistance again; only after firmly standing above 1.20 should we look at 1.23–1.25. Its biggest problem now is not weakness, but that it has risen over 60% in the past month, significantly compressing the space for chasing at high levels.
$WLD is currently around 0.538, up nearly 8% in 24 hours. 0.51–0.52 is the first support; look for a breakthrough at 0.54–0.55 first, and after standing firm, then look at 0.57.
This lineup: HYPE waits at 94, SUI waits at 1.20, WLD defends 0.51. All can pull during the rebound, but the real second leg must first turn the previous resistance back into support.$XDP has surpassed the previous high, first looking for continuation
In the short term, the focus is still on upward continuation. The high and low points in the past few hours are at 0.019639 / 0.019035 USDT, and the just-closed 5-minute candlestick is at 0.019843 USDT. The price has already stood above the reference range, which is meaningful in itself. However, the recent 15-minute trading volume is lighter than the previous hours, and the activity hasn't kept up, so for now, just consider the price movement.
If trading volume becomes active again later and the price continues to stay above the previous high, this assumption will be more solid. Conversely, if the close falls back below the previous high, the idea of upward continuation must be abandoned.#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
Major risk warning! ETF funds are completely diverging, and signals of a market shift have appeared 🤔
The crypto market is facing a critical turning point! BTC ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, accumulating $3.08 billion, but the fund momentum is rapidly weakening, with only $66.19 million inflow on September 29, and institutional appetite for chasing highs has sharply declined. 🤑
An even more dangerous signal comes from $ETH! ETH ETF previously had net inflows of $851 million over 7 consecutive days, moving in sync with BTC's strength, but on the 29th it turned to a net outflow of $2.81 million for the first time!
This is not a small matter; it indicates a complete divergence in institutional fund styles! Funds are fleeing from the highly volatile ETH, with only a small amount remaining in BTC by inertia, and the bullish momentum is visibly exhausted. Don't be fooled by the small outflow amount; this is a sign of trend reversal. If it continues, it will drag down the entire market, and BTC will not be able to stand alone.
Currently, BTC is stuck in a consolidation deadlock, with 82,000 as short-term support and 85,000 as strong resistance. Coupled with the major non-farm payroll data release this week, large funds are all on the sidelines, making a breakout unlikely.
The best strategy at this stage: never blindly bottom-fish! Slowing fund inflows and sector divergence are clear warnings! Patiently wait for funds to return and key supports to stabilize. At the current position, watching the game is always safer than heavy betting! The most interesting thing about $BTC right now isn't how much it has risen, but who is secretly buying! 🐳
Today, a very noteworthy signal appeared in the crypto world:
In the past 10 days, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have collectively increased by about 41,000 BTC.
At the same time, the spot BTC ETF has also seen continuous inflows recently, totaling nearly $3 billion over 9 days.
Here’s the question—
With so much capital entering, why hasn't BTC broken through directly?
On one side, large funds are continuously accumulating chips, while on the other, some whale addresses are reducing holdings, and BTC is clearly facing resistance around $86,000.
This shows it’s not simply a case of "everyone is bullish."
It’s more like:
Some are accumulating, some are taking profits, and the market is undergoing a chip exchange.
Today’s PCE data came in below expectations, bringing a wave of risk appetite to the market, and BTC approached $86,000 again.
But don’t forget—
What really determines the October trend might not be today’s single candlestick, but whether funds continue to flow in or start to retreat.
If whales keep buying and ETFs keep flowing in, the market could get more interesting.
But if the price surges and whales start transferring large amounts of coins to exchanges, then be cautious.
What do you think about BTC now? Is it gearing up for a breakout, or is it about to trap people again near $86,000?
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC
Drop your comments below 👇
🐳 Accumulating
🧨 Selling #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key event The market on the eve of the non-farm payrolls was like a stagnant pool. But let me tell you, beneath this calm, funds have long stopped betting on macro factors and have started to quietly pick and choose.
Last night, the cooling PCE crushed the rate hike probability to 40%, and Goldman Sachs followed suit by delaying expectations. But then, looking again, ADP employment exceeded expectations, and Kashkari stubbornly insisted inflation is still too high. Macro data is contradicting itself, and the market has become completely desensitized to bad news. Funds have realized that the macro direction is unclear, so they simply give up on speculation and turn inward to find structural opportunities.
This is especially obvious in today's market. BTC slightly dipped but held firm, SOL dropped more than one point, giving back some of its earlier gains. But ETH reversed against the trend and turned green, even gold rose along with it. This is called a high-low rotation, where funds abandon high-beta junk and instead cluster around assets with certain narratives. ETH is supported by ETFs and upgrades, gold has safe-haven logic, making them havens in a low-volume market.
Tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls will be the final meat grinder. Don’t think that beating expectations means a crash or missing them means a rally. The main players love to exploit the instant emotions from data, stabbing violently up and down to blow out both longs and shorts before choosing a direction. Betting on size at this time is just giving money to the manipulators.
My stance is simple: hold your spot positions firmly, and deleverage fully in the short term. Don’t bet on data, don’t chase highs. Wait for tomorrow night’s non-farm to be fully released, then pick up those certainty chips that were wrongly sold off. Get through this data hurdle, and the gains will come later. $BTC $ETH $XAUT Single Coin Contract Movement｜Last 15 Minutes
$MON surged with increased volume, open interest expanded simultaneously: price +2.63%, open interest +2.97%, active buying 51.4%. Currently, the strength is reflected by price and open interest expansion, while active trades have not yet clearly favored buyers.⚠️ $FIL: WHY IS THE SELLING PRESSURE SO STRONG?
$FIL has fallen over 99% from its ~$237 ATH. 📉
But why hasn’t the recovery lasted?
➤ Miner selling adds constant supply
➤ Unlocks can create more pressure
➤ Real demand still needs to catch up with the storage narrative
For $FIL, the key question is simple:
Can demand finally absorb the supply? 👀
#FIL #Filecoin #CryptoThe market feels like it’s loading up for a big move. 👀
$USELESS has fallen from $0.3588 to around $0.229, with EMA5/10/20 all pointing lower and rebounds getting weaker.
The range is tightening, volume is fading, and $0.20 is the key downside area to watch if support breaks.
Meanwhile, $BTC and $ETH remain on watch as volatility builds.
#NonfarmPayrolls #加息预期推迟
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
#OpenAI$1.4TFunding $BTC BTC whales sold off 2.5 billion, while ETH whales only bought 160 million — this round of "rotation" seems off.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has been consolidating at a high level, with whales reducing their holdings by about 30,000 BTC, worth 2.52 billion USD.
Ethereum whales increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH during the same period, worth 162 million USD.
The numerical disparity: the scale of BTC sell-off is 15 times that of ETH purchases.
Alicharts interprets this divergence as reflecting differing market sentiments, with ETH possibly outperforming BTC in the short term. This judgment might hold — funds are indeed concentrating on ETH, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has a basis for strengthening.
But what’s more concerning is: this is not rotation, it’s retreat.
Whales cashed out 2.5 billion USD from BTC, only reinvesting a small portion into ETH; where did the rest go? With U.S. Treasury yields above 5.2%, the appeal of cash and short-term bonds is rising. The increase in ETH holdings does not offset the selling pressure on BTC.Ethena's September hides a key turning point
In September, Ethena did three things.
First, expanded the product line.
At the beginning of the month, EthenaPay beta was launched, extending basis trading to stock perpetual contracts, and USDe landed on TRON.
Second, scaled up.
USDe supply grew by over 700 million USD, becoming the largest USD-collateralized asset on Morpho, while launching rewards on Ethena's ecosystem market on Aave V4.
Third, brought institutions in.
Standard Chartered Bank initiated research coverage on Ethena, forecasting about 8x growth in USDe over the next two years. Meanwhile, SOC 2 Type II audit was completed with no exceptions found by the independent auditor.
But the most thought-provoking is this:
From the end of the month, ENA incentives linked to USDe growth will no longer be issued, nor will new issuance be made for this purpose.
Translation: part of USDe's past growth was driven by ENA subsidies. Now the subsidies are stopping, growth must rely on itself.
This is the key turning point of September.
Standard Chartered's 8x bullish forecast is an external expectation.
Stopping incentives is a test Ethena sets for itself.
Can USDe continue to grow without subsidies? The answer will be given in the coming months.$BTC ignores the MACD daily death cross! Bulls remain strong! Three days after the death cross, the coin price has risen for three days,
Yesterday, I had an 80% unrealized profit, but it was stopped out by a pullback. I couldn't sleep all night! I've been reflecting.
I will keep a close watch on this rise! I will never let regret happen again.
I will closely monitor the 85500 level because there was huge selling pressure at this level yesterday. Whether it can break through this time is unknown.
According to relevant data, sell orders in the 85000-85500 range are also large.
Meanwhile, ETF fund inflows are declining, and incremental funds can't keep up.
So 85000-85500 may become a new resistance point.
I won't gamble on it breaking through; as long as the profit satisfies me, that's enough! Contentment brings happiness!
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! Here's a revamped version styled like a crypto news flash with expert insights, reorganized for clarity and enriched with market logic:
Writing
#US Senate Advances ADAPT Crypto Tax Reform, New Tax Rules Loom for Stablecoin Payments
The US Senate recently introduced the ADAPT Act, a new crypto tax bill drawing market attention primarily to tax treatment of stablecoins, digital asset transactions, and on-chain operations.
Key highlights to watch:
🔹 Tax Rule Changes for Stablecoin Payments
Using stablecoins to purchase goods or services may no longer trigger capital gains or loss recognition, further reinforcing stablecoins' role as a payment method.
🔹 Wash Sale Rules Extend to Digital Assets
Traditional securities market wash sale restrictions are expanding to cover digital assets, potentially limiting tax loss harvesting through rapid buy-sell maneuvers.
🔹 Small Gas Fees May Be Tax-Exempt
The bill proposes tax exemptions for gas fees under $10, a direct improvement for users frequently conducting small on-chain transactions.
🔹 Tax Treatment for Staking, Lending, and ETF-Related Assets
The legislation also clarifies tax boundaries for staking rewards, digital asset lending, and ETF staking scenarios, aiming to define tax obligations across various crypto financial activities.
From an industry perspective, ADAPT is still in the legislative process and does not imply immediate rule enforcement, so it’s unlikely to act as a short-term catalyst for BTC price movements.Summary of what Ethena$ENA did in September:
Product side:
- Launched EthenaPay beta at the beginning of the month
- Basis trading expanded to stock perpetual contracts
- USDe launched on TRON
Scale side:
- USDe supply grew by over $700 million
- USDe became the second largest collateral asset on Morpho and the largest USD collateral asset, supporting two of the three major markets on the protocol
- USDe rewards launched on Ethereum Aave V4 dedicated Ethena ecosystem market
Institutional side:
- Standard Chartered Bank initiated research coverage on Ethena, forecasting about 8x growth of USDe in the next two years
- Completed SOC 2 Type II audit, with independent auditors giving a clean opinion and no exceptions found
What this means:
First, USDe's growth is not driven by subsidies. Canceling token incentives means future growth must rely on real demand.
Second, institutions are starting to take it seriously. Standard Chartered's research coverage and the SOC 2 audit are signals of institutional entry.
Third, the product line is expanding. From crypto perpetuals to stock perpetual contracts.
The most critical point:
Announced that from the end of the month onward, there will be no ENA token incentives or inflation related to USDe growth.
Canceling incentives is a stress test for Ethena itself. Whether USDe can run on its own will be answered in the coming months.$SOL made a deep V move today, dropping sharply right at the morning open, hitting a low of 116.9, then pulling back in the afternoon, now hovering around 119. The 24-hour price movement is mixed, overall still fluctuating within the 117–120 range.
Two things worth discussing today:
1. The positive news remains: SOL's ETF saw a record inflow of $188 million last week, institutional money is still flowing in, which is why it currently has a stronger foundation than BTC and ETH.
2. But there are risks: some institutional funds are starting to rotate towards Hyperliquid, and with the DeFi ecosystem still recovering after Drift was attacked, there is some short-term fatigue.
Short-term outlook:
- Support below remains at 117, which held this morning; if broken, look to 113;
- Resistance above is the 120 round number, then 125;
- RSI is already at 63, close to overbought, the stronger the rally, the more cautious you should be about a pullback. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran talks are easing oil prices and giving BTC some short-term relief.
BTC is hovering near $84K, with $85K resistance and $82K support.
But negotiations remain uncertain. A breakdown could push oil and rate-hike expectations higher again.
For now, patience over chasing. ⚠️
$BTC $ETH $BZ$PEPE is slightly strong on the 4h timeframe, RSI at 54.8 is somewhat high; 1h RSI at 57.2 near the upper edge, MACD trending upwards
Range: 0.0000042967–0.0000043289 (1h pullback zone), currently above the range, waiting for a pullback
Timing: Slightly high above the range, wait for the pullback to be in place before comparing.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends once the target is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 0.00000451
Invalidation: Break below 0.0000042788
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after a pullbackConclusion first: $CT (Concrete) is not in a slow bull today; it is the "first wave explosion" after listing on OKX — rising from 0.34 to 0.53 and then back to 0.481 within 24h, with a 55% amplitude and $160 million in trading volume.
At 16:00, a single 4H candle volume of 15.05 million CT was 4.5 times the average of the previous 4 candles (3.3 million). At 18:00, the 1H volume was 6.89 million, with the price dropping from 0.457 to 0.53 and then back to 0.4816 — a 7% upper wick in 1H before pulling back, which is a typical "first big volume shakeout after listing."
The driver is strong: Concrete positions itself as "on-chain institutional financial infrastructure" — asset management, Vault, accounting, qualified custodian integration. On 09-30, OKX connected CT-USDT spot, CT-EUR/CT-TRY/CT-USDC multi-markets, and launched CT-USD equity X-Perp all in one day. This listing density equals a hot debut with a "first week after listing" market.
Funding rate of -0.0017% is not overheated; 0.47-0.48 is the current tug-of-war zone.
With $CT’s 24h 55% amplitude new coin play, are you entering or exiting?ZEC surged to 1622, shorts lost 300 million in three days, is 1650 just the starting point?
As long as shorts don't die, the bull market won't stop; this time shorts were really pushed into the ICU!
ZEC currently at 1622, holding above 1600 for 1 hour, MACD bullish. Funds are short-term out and long-term in, with 8.19 million inflow in 4 hours and 1.1 billion in 12 hours, big capital accumulating. Liquidation chart shows shorts clustered between 1600-1700, with total short liquidations of 30.42 million; whale Garrett Jin lost 36.13 million closing positions. Grayscale ZCSH has had net inflows exceeding 500 million for 16 consecutive days, Matt Huang is optimistic, NU7 upgrade passed, computing power increased. I believe this is institutional compliance repricing; ZEC market cap is only 1.7% of Bitcoin's, small buy orders can drive big rallies.
Strategy: Long near 1620-1630, target 1660-1680; short if it breaks below 1600 with continuous fund outflows. Risk: RSI overbought near 30 days, inflows slowing or whale selling may cause pullback.
Is 1650 a new support or the end of the short squeeze? $ZEC PCE came in softer than expected, giving crypto some breathing room—but the real test is whether buyers follow through.
$ETH is near $2,687: $2,740 needs to break with volume, while $2,650 remains key support.
$DOGE is testing $0.098. Holding above could open $0.10; losing $0.093 would weaken the move.
$ARB is hovering near $0.206. Watch $0.20 support and $0.211–$0.214 for confirmation.
The data is bullish for sentiment. Now price action has to prove it. 📊
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
#OKXNO 🚨 WHALE BUYS 3.125M $UNI FOR $24.2M AT $7.75
A mysterious whale that previously sold 167,855 ETH worth $408M has rotated into Uniswap, according to on-chain data $UNI
The wallet bought 3.125M UNI for $24.2M at an average price of $7.75 a week ago
That position now shows a $3.8M unrealized profit, on-chain data suggests
The same address sold its entire 167,855 ETH stack, worth $408M, over five days
Watch whether this whale keeps building or starts trimming 👀
$ETH ETH at $2705, what are you still waiting for?
10 days countdown to the upgrade, with 1.58 million ETH stuck in the staking queue unable to enter, while the ETF suddenly reversed with an outflow of 2.81 million — but just now, the price is stuck right in the middle of the $2705 range, with a ceiling at 2750 and a lifeline at 2630. Is this wave the last accumulation before the main upward trend, or a trap dug by the bears at 2700?
Let's look at the surface first: up 10%, but going nowhere.
Up 10% in nearly 30 days, basically flat in the last 7 days, market cap at 329 billion, still over 40% below the ATH in August 2025. Early September at 2400, mid-month surged to 2800, then... stuck in the 2630-2810 box, sweeping back and forth for a whole month.
2705 is exactly the middle of this box.
With about $100 space up and down, chasing longs in the middle has a risk-reward ratio about the same as flipping a coin.
First: Glamsterdam entered the testnet, but don’t get too excited.
Sepolia activates on October 6, with ePBS, block-level access lists, new gas pricing — sounds hardcore.
In plain language: this is the "mock exam" for the mainnet upgrade at year-end, not the "graduation ceremony."
Testnet running smoothly ≠ immediate mainnet price surge. The mainnet date is not set yet, most likely in Q4. After Fusaka launched last December, the blob target was raised to 14, cap at 21, and L2 data channels have indeed expanded — but the price? It didn’t give you any respect.
Remember this: upgrades are slow variables, candlesticks are fast variables. Don’t bet tomorrow’s direction on a benefit that’s a quarter away.
Second: the staking queue is still waiting, but that’s not today’s fuel.
About 1.58 million ETH queued for activation, only 200,000 exiting. New entries are 8 times the exits.
Sounds strong? Locked circulating supply is indeed a slow bull logic.
But brother, this is a "you’ll find fewer chips in three months" story, not a reason to "explode shorts today." Chasing longs today won’t earn you a penny more just because more people are queued.
Third: ETF reversed, institutions no longer buying one-sided.
In mid-September, ETH ETF inflows outperformed BTC, and the market was full of "institutions are back."
But on September 29, a net outflow of 2.81 million occurred. The slope flattened.
Not scary, but enough to show one thing: the institutional narrative remains, but short-term is not new fuel. Some whales are withdrawing, and some institutions are reducing ETH and increasing UNI — ETH is no longer the sole favorite of institutions.
Fourth: BTC is giving a range, not a one-way move.
On Thursday, BTC hovered between 83,000-84,000, PCE slightly below expectations pushed it over 85,600, then was pressed back by the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.29%. On September 16, a 25bp hike was just added, with rates still between 3.75%-4%.
Translation: the market itself is in a box, why expect ETH to fly solo?
If BTC breaks below 82,600, ETH will struggle to hold 2650. Memorize this.
Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide:
On one side:
Glamsterdam testnet activates October 6, mainnet at year-end
1.58 million ETH queued for staking, only 200,000 exiting
L2 volume expansion, blob channel enlargement, ultrasound narrative more credible than last year
30 days +10%, box not broken, bullish structure intact
On the other side:
ETF just reversed to outflow, institutional slope flattened
ETH/BTC long-term weak bias, excess returns unstable
2705 in the middle of the box, chasing longs has average risk-reward
BTC suppressed by US Treasury yields, dragging down anytime
Key levels: top 2750, bottom 2630, middle 2705.
Above: 2730-2750 recent highs → 2780-2810 supply zone → only above 2820 can we talk 2900-3000
Below: 2660-2670 today’s low zone → 2630-2650 box bottom, structural lifeline → 2550 → 2410
2705 is not a no-buy zone, but buying here won’t make big money, losing hurts a lot.
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 2705 max, stop loss at 2648. First target 2745, reduce half when reached. Second target 2780. No leverage, no heavy positions, this is a test, not a battle.
Conservative:
Wait for 2630-2660 to consider going long, stop loss 2588. Better position near 2550. If not reached, hold small positions and wait. Patience is more valuable than courage.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume supports a firm break above 2820 and pullback doesn’t break 2750. Targets 2950, 3000. Fake breakout? Abandon immediately, don’t get attached.
Bearish:
Light short on weak rallies at 2780-2810, stop loss 2860, target 2660. But don’t short near 2630 — that’s charging into the barrel.
Position size:
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage within 3-5x. ETH is more volatile than BTC but not crazily narrative-driven.
Risk control priorities, memorize in order:
Daily close below 2630 → reduce positions, next level 2550
BTC breaks 82,600 and accelerates → ETH reduces positions simultaneously, don’t hold on
If Glamsterdam Sepolia has issues or mainnet is clearly delayed → short-term expectations get crushed
ETH has told half the story of "L2 volume + year-end upgrade," but price is stuck in the 2700 box.
What can be done is marginal defense, not all-in to 3000.
Surviving until 2630 breaks or 2820 confirms is ten thousand times more important than gambling direction with high leverage in the middle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Brothers, the PCE data has finally landed, and the market is boiling over! The US core PCE in August rose only 3.0% year-on-year, much lower than the market expectation of 3.3%, hitting a new low since February this year. The overall PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, also far below the expected 3.7%. As a result, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped directly from over 65% to below 40%, and the expectation for the next rate hike has been postponed to December.
But don’t get too happy too soon, don’t blindly rush just because inflation is cooling down. There are hidden risks in the data: consumer spending surged 0.9% month-on-month, real consumption grew 0.6%, but real disposable income showed zero growth. What does this mean? People’s income hasn’t increased, but they are spending more aggressively, which indicates that the underlying resilience of inflation remains strong, and the Federal Reserve dares not ease up easily.
So everything now depends on the September nonfarm payrolls. The market generally expects new jobs to be only 85,000 to 100,000, far below August’s 162,000. If employment really cools down, there is reason to pause in October. But Citibank has already warned that even if nonfarm payrolls are as weak as 85,000, a rate hike in October is still highly likely.
The conclusion is simple: PCE gave a breather, but nonfarm payrolls are the verdict. Before Friday’s data comes out, control your positions, don’t blindly chase highs, the volatile shakeout is still ahead, hold your bullets steady!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #SEC Chairman Atkins says will promote clarity on on-chain fundraising rules
The leader has something to say
SEC Chairman Atkins has spoken again. With Congress legislation stalled, the SEC is using existing authority to advance rule clarity.
Regulation Crypto Assets has already been proposed. Startups under 4 years get an exemption up to $5 million, a fundraising exemption up to $75 million within 12 months, plus a safe harbor for investment contracts. Tokenized stocks also receive innovation exemptions.
I believe regulation is shifting from blocking to facilitating. The CLARITY Act didn’t pass, but the SEC is filling the gap with administrative rules; compliance paths for fundraising and trading are taking shape. Bitwise CIO is right—legislative gridlock might actually accelerate some regulatory reforms.
This is a medium-term positive for the market, but not a short-term buying catalyst. Increased regulatory certainty will encourage institutional entry, which is a slow-moving factor.
I took profits on my long BTC positions at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, now fully out of the market. Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is key. ADP employment came in at 90,000, higher than expected; if Nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will rise and BTC will face pressure. If it weakens, the probability of no rate hike in October is higher.
Long-term US Treasury yields are above 5.6%, macro pressure remains. I won’t bet on direction before Nonfarm; will wait for data to settle before positioning. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for signals.
All the above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on trades. Good luck.ONDO is opening new doors, but the price is still lingering at the doorstep
$ONDO is at $0.4953, down about 7% in the past week, yet business news hasn't stopped. On September 29, the announced partnership with Kakaopay Securities focuses on exploring overseas distribution and tokenization of Korean stocks. There's a detail worth highlighting: the two parties signed a memorandum of understanding to first study the processes of stock procurement, custody, and issuance/redemption, with commercialization timing not yet determined. My understanding is that the channels are being laid out, and revenue realization still has a way to go. Its highlight has extended from simply increasing asset types to connecting local brokers with a global distribution network. The direction of cooperation is worth watching.
$SOL presents a different question: with ETF inflows, why is the price still lingering? In the week of September 25, U.S. spot ETFs had net inflows of about $188 million, with all seven products attracting funds; the price remains around $118. These two facts can coexist—fund purchases are only part of market demand, and other holders may be selling. What matters more going forward is whether the new inflows can continue and whether the price reaction improves.
$HYPE performed slightly stronger, rising about 2.9% in one day, near $89.26, about 9% below the high of $98.04 on September 23. This gap easily stirs expectations of returning to the previous high, but the previous high only records where past transactions reached and does not guarantee the price will be pulled back there. Tonight, attention can be paid to whether it can maintain relative strength. Keep a rebound mindset, but don't increase position size based on imagined upside.$BTC Night Before Nonfarm: Released tomorrow night at 20:30, the market is waiting for a "cold enough but not too cold" number. US September Nonfarm Payrolls will be announced at 20:30 Singapore time on 10/2. Expectations for new jobs vary by source: Reuters about 90,000, Dow Jones about 84,000, Goldman Sachs 80,000, Bank of America 60,000. Unemployment rate expected at 4.1%. Today's ADP small nonfarm +90,000, better than expected. The wide range of expectations means whether it is "better or worse than expected" depends on which forecast you follow: compared to 90,000, 80,000 is below; compared to 60,000, 80,000 is above. BTC has been fluctuating between about 82,600 and 85,600 in the past 72 hours, current price about 83,433. My view (not a fact): the number itself may be less important than the combination of "unemployment rate + wages + rate hike expectations"; what’s worth watching is the price reaction to these three in the first hour after the release, not taking sides in advance
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $ETH DOGE's fairness is not just rhetoric; it's coded into the genesis block. Launched on December 6, 2013, with no pre-mining, no ICO, no team reserve addresses, and the reward rules for the first 100 blocks were exactly the same as every block thereafter—the founder who wanted an extra coin had to turn on their computer and mine it themselves.
This approach is almost extinct today. Many projects claiming "fair launch" either leave hidden parameters for early miners or embed team shares in the contract. The on-chain archaeology of DOGE is simple: at launch, mining difficulty was so low that a home computer could mine a large amount of coins, but that was because no one took the joke seriously, not because the door was closed. The Bitcointalk announcement was visible to everyone, parameters were open to all, and the low cost came from few participants, not from information asymmetry.
The subsequent distribution is even more noteworthy. The Reddit tipping bot spread DOGE to ordinary users, and the tipping culture diluted early holdings, resulting in a more decentralized holding structure than most "serious projects." A coin that no one took seriously actually avoided all the insider distribution scripts.
The rarity of fair launches lies not in technology but in motivation. Most projects design their valuation from day one, and thus design distribution games around that valuation; $DOGE had no manipulable valuation from day one, and therefore no manipulators. This unintentional move became its trump card to survive through eleven-year cycles.NVIDIA announced an additional $150 billion stock buyback, but the risk appetite spillover did not boost BSB, indicating that funds prefer to cluster in certain assets rather than high-volatility small tokens. In the short term, I lean towards a bearish consolidation. In the past 24 hours, the price dropped 1.2% to 0.10187, with a low of 0.0996, and the trading volume was only 976,000, showing a clear lack of momentum; the funding rate of 0.0168% indicates that longs are still paying, but the open interest of 11.91 million coin-margined contracts combined with a buy-sell ratio of 4.13 in the top 10 order book levels shows buyers dominate the orders, making it difficult for shorts to heavily push down. 0.10035 is the first support, and 0.10365 is the recent resistance. Strategically, if it pulls back near 0.10015, go long with a stop loss at 0.09885 and a target of 0.10355; if it rebounds to 0.10385 and faces resistance, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 0.10465 and a target of 0.10025. Keep position size within 20%, and exit immediately if the funding rate turns negative or the buy-sell ratio falls below 1.5.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $BSB NVIDIA's additional $150 billion buyback boosts risk appetite, but CL did not follow suit. I judge that funds are using the positive news to offload. The market shows clear contradictions: 1-hour and 4-hour charts are both down, yet the 24-hour chart closed up 1.3%. The current price of 91.84 is stuck between 92.89 and 88.86, with a volume of 14.132 million. Funding rate is zero, open interest is 426,000, and the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.86, with sellers dominating and bulls lacking premium. Short-term cycle is bearish, long-term cycle shows a weak rebound. The divergence lies in fear of overselling when shorting and fear of continued decline when going long. Strategy-wise, lightly short at a rebound to 92.36, stop loss at 93.12, target 88.94; if it sharply drops to 88.72 and the bid-ask ratio rises above 1, consider a short-term long position, stop loss at 87.95, target 91.48. Total position should not exceed 20%, exit immediately on breakout, do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$CL#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $CL $TRUMP President Coin is lying flat, with a 0.07% fluctuation that's even more dead than my heart
Brothers, TRUMP is lying flat again today, at $2.07, moving only 0.07% in 24 hours, the volatility is so low it makes me want to curse. The position I hold has been stuck from the high point until now, every day I open it just to see it playing dead.
TRUMP is a Meme on Solana, completely relying on Trump's own popularity to survive. Recently, there’s no new catalyst, and the price is stuck grinding around $2. It has dropped 12% in 30 days, 66% in a year, and has retraced 97% from the all-time high of $73. Early investors have long exited, leaving retail investors to take the hit. On-chain data is even more painful: the top five addresses hold a scary proportion of the tokens, with one address holding over 78%, clearly controlled by the whales.
Let me pour cold water. This coin has no fundamentals, no dividends, no buybacks, no burns; its value entirely depends on one person's Twitter and political cycle. With the midterm elections approaching next year, whether the hype returns depends entirely on how the show plays out. Right now, it’s a vacuum period. Also, liquidity is getting thinner, and even a slightly large order causes sharp price spikes.
The non-farm payroll on October 2 and the FOMC on October 28 will affect overall risk appetite; Memes are most sensitive to macro factors. If we’re waiting for catalysts, we have to see when Trump will speak for it again.
I treat the President Coin as a lottery ticket position; those heavily invested truly believe in it. For my small stake, I just consider it a memory tax. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Last night, the US PCE inflation data was actually positive, with Bitcoin briefly surging to $85,500. But the rise was quick and the fall was just as fast, then it directly dropped back to fluctuate around $83,000–$84,000.
The fundamental reason is that US Treasury yields are too high. The 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, at a multi-decade high. With government bonds offering a risk-free return above 5%, the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin is discounted, so institutional funds naturally hesitate to chase the price aggressively.
Interestingly, ETFs have actually been buying; Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of about $3.1 billion over nine consecutive days. But on one side, institutions are scooping up, while on the other side, profit-taking and pressure from Treasury yields offset each other, causing the price to be stuck in the $83,000–$85,000 range.
Market sentiment is not pessimistic; the Fear and Greed Index remains in the "Greed" zone at 73–74. To truly break through, it depends on whether upcoming US employment data can bring Treasury yields down.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 BTC price is currently around 84000, with two short-term upward surges, but the trading volume has not significantly increased. When the price breaks through but the volume doesn't keep up, beware of false breakouts and pullbacks.
So my approach remains: focus on the trend in the medium to long term, go long on dips and short on highs in the short term, watch support on pullbacks, and watch resistance on rebounds.
At midnight, I positioned long orders near BTC 83500 and ETH 2670. Currently, the rebound has reached around 84400 and 2720, with some short-term profits. It's appropriate to reduce positions and re-enter on pullbacks. Don't get shaken out by temporary volatility.
The market can fluctuate, but trading must not lose its rhythm. Those who truly survive bull and bear markets don't always guess the direction right but understand the trend, stick to discipline, and control risk.
I will continue to monitor key levels and trading rhythm, keep up with the pace, and avoid blindly chasing highs or selling lows!
Investment carries risks, trading requires caution, and never blindly follow others. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键