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$BTC $ETH
BTC ~$84.6K. ETH ~$2.68K.
15M liquidity looks thin again.
BTC inflows have cooled over the past 2 days, while ETH isn’t showing much fresh capital. Hard to sustain upside without liquidity.
$SOL still trades like BTC/ETH’s little brother — majors move, SOL follows.
Today feels like another low-volatility grind.
Still holding Momo. No forced trades.
#BTCETHETFOutflows Latest Financial News (October 3, 15:41):
1. 【Strait of Hormuz】UKMTO reported another attack on a vessel late Friday night: an oil tanker was hit on the port side by an unidentified projectile about 4 nautical miles east of Oman. All crew are safe, no environmental impact reported. This is the 7th incident this week.
2. 【US-Iran Situation】Axios revealed today that Trump's key aides held a secret meeting for several hours on Friday at Camp David (hosted by Vance, attended by Rubio, Hegseth, Witkoff, Ratcliffe, and US Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley) to discuss the next steps in the Iran war and the Saudi-Houthi conflict; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is preparing a large-scale counteroffensive against the Houthis with 100,000 Yemeni ground troops and Saudi air support. The US is only providing intelligence support and is not directly involved in combat for now; Trump said the war would "end soon," "possibly after the midterm elections."$ETH Nonfarm payrolls at 20:30 tonight; the strength of the data will directly determine whether $2,800 is a breakout or if pressure continues.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the key variable deciding ETH's short-term direction, focusing on the combination of new jobs added and the unemployment rate.
Nonfarm payroll data expectations:
New jobs added: Market expects about 90,000, previous value was 162,000.
Unemployment rate: Market expects 4.1%, unchanged from the previous value.
ETH is currently oscillating narrowly between $2,680 and $2,800, with an unclear short-term trend and intense battle between bulls and bears.
Impact of nonfarm payroll data on ETH:
If data exceeds expectations with new jobs added over 90,000/unemployment rate below 4.1%: This may strengthen bets on the Fed continuing to raise rates in October, causing US Treasury yields to rise, which would be bearish for ETH, possibly testing support at $2,680.
If data falls short of expectations with new jobs added below 90,000/unemployment rate rising above 4.2%: This may weaken rate hike expectations, improving liquidity outlook and bullish for ETH, with potential to test resistance at $2,800.
Suggested trading approach:
Nonfarm data releases often cause sharp spikes; it is recommended to wait 15-30 minutes after the data for sentiment to stabilize before acting.
If unemployment rises and new jobs added are significantly below expectations, ETH may rebound sharply; if data is strong across the board, ETH will face considerable downward pressure. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH The low position of $TAO is starting to attract attention, but cheapness alone can never replace evidence of a bottom.
Let's break down this market move into a conditional test:
Directional evidence: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI at 57 and 30 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound but cannot alone prove a trend reversal; price stopping new lows first is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
Positional evidence: Current price is 288.7, about 2.32% away from the 1-hour support at 282, and about 9.63% away from resistance at 316.5. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
No guessing for the next step. My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 316.5 can the short-term initiative be regained; breaking below 282 means shifting focus to the 4-hour support at 282. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 319.1 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 316.5 and 282 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Do you think oversold conditions alone are enough to change your judgment?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.ZEC dropped another 4% today, down 15% over 7 days, while Bitcoin only fell less than 3% in the same period.
Open any exchange's gainers and losers list, and ZEC is always near the top of the losers.
Other coins drop 1%, it drops 3%; other coins rebound 2%, it can't even gain 1%.
This is not a correction, this is capital systematically withdrawing.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF has been continuously redeemed by institutions due to privacy pool issues, with nearly $27 million withdrawn in a single day.
The Bitget hacker's $3.9 million stolen funds entering the Zcash privacy pool hasn't settled yet; institutions fear being associated with such labels, so funds will flee even faster.
My short position at 1486 has already gained over 100 in floating profit, but today I don't want to talk about how much I earned.
What I want to say is, at the current price of 1317, the risk-reward ratio for short positions is still favorable. Set stop loss above 1400, target first 1250, then 1200 if broken.
You don't need to believe me, just look at the market.
When the market rises, it doesn't; when the market falls, it falls even harder. For this kind of coin, long positions are a daily torment.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The rule on the operating table is always: before the first cut, first check if the heart is still beating, whether the valves are adhered, and if cardiopulmonary bypass can be initiated.
The group gathered now are interns who just entered the operating room—hands shaking, sweating, zero concept of sterility, fainting at the sight of blood. So the experienced surgeons spread out the records of past complications: which cut severed a blood vessel, which stitch misaligned a valve, which postoperative drainage tube blockage caused cardiac tamponade. This "shared medical record" itself is not wrong; autopsy reports are the most honest part of medical progress.
But what you really need to look at is never the medical record, but the monitor.
$xNFLX and similar cross-market instruments are essentially an allograft heart transplant. The donor is in the US stock market, the recipient is on the blockchain market. When the match is incompatible, rejection reactions don’t first appear on the ECG; they start at the capillary level—microthrombosis, insufficient perfusion, cold extremities. By the time you see ST segment elevation on the K-line, a portion of the myocardium has already died. The crash retail investors see is the symptom, the chest pain; the real cause is hidden in the coronary angiography, hidden in those preoperative assessments no one wants to read.
When the fear and greed index spikes to extremes, that’s called sympathetic nervous system overexcitation. Heart rate shoots up to 180, but blood pressure drops instead; this isn’t heart failure that can be fixed with inotropes, it’s the compensatory phase of hypovolemic shock—the more vasopressors you use, the colder the extremities get.
"There are no stupid questions"—in clinical practice, the most dangerous thing is never asking the wrong question, but staying silent and then following orders. The primary source of complications for junior doctors is always the phrase "I thought I knew." What the chief fears most during rounds is not the students who ask many questions, but the one nodding silently in the corner.
As for the community giving rewards and good posts making the leaderboard for profit sharing, logically it’s equivalent to paying performance bonuses to resident doctors based on post volume. But surgical quality is never determined by bonuses; it’s determined by suture density and whether hemostasis is thorough. Rewards are for expression, not for myocardium.
I have seen too many scenes like this in the emergency room: everyone gathered around the monitor discussing waveforms, no one looking at the patient’s face. By the time someone pulls back the blanket, the puncture site in the groin has already soaked the entire bed.
The anesthesia for this case has been pushed, the sternal saw is in place. And what I see on this monitor is not the lively questions of novices, but a heart pushed onto the table before completing preoperative assessment—the aortic dissection has already torn into the pericardium, blood pressure is dropping, and no one in the room is feeling his carotid pulse. #newherestarthereWhen I first got into the crypto world, it was purely because I got hooked on short videos.
Seeing others flaunt their profits, it felt like money was just blowing in with the wind.
The first time I bought $BTC, my hands were shaking.
After buying, I kept staring at the screen, wanting to laugh when it went up a bit, and wanting to curse when it dropped a bit.
During that time, I even watched K-line charts while eating, it was really a bit obsessive.
Later, when $ETH surged, I chased it a bit.
But I bought halfway up the mountain, and then it slowly declined.
The first thing I did every morning was not drink water, but check how much was left in my account.
Saying I wasn’t anxious was a lie, but I still told my friends I was holding steady.
Then when $SOL surged fiercely, I couldn’t resist either.
I jumped in, but within a couple of days it started to pull back, grinding me down hard.
That’s when I realized, in the noisy places, I often ended up holding the bag.
After losing money, I did stupid things like averaging down, which only dug me deeper.
I also did even dumber things, like selling at the lowest point, then watching it slowly climb back up.
The frustration was unbearable, I really wanted to slap myself.
Now I don’t watch the market as much, I just set alerts and leave it alone.
My position size is much smaller too; being able to sleep well is more important than anything.
When others shout about hundredfold gains, I just listen but don’t fully believe.
There’s so much news in this field, some true, some false, and emotions run wilder than technology.
Having suffered losses, I know living to trade another day is more important than making quick money.
Sometimes I take a little profit and run, which isn’t ambitious but feels steady.
Sometimes I get itchy hands wanting to gamble again, so I quickly go wash my face.
In the end, it’s not that you can’t touch this stuff, just don’t put yourself on the line.
I’m still learning and will still make mistakes, just not as obsessed as before.
Now I treat it as buying some fun, no longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The G7 release of reserves is a hedge, not a solution.
100 million barrels spread over 4 months, about 800,000 barrels per day, which is just a buffer relative to global consumption.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
Logically, such a large release should directly crush oil prices.
However, Brent closed near $102 with almost no drop,
WTI fell to around $91, and diesel futures actually dropped even more.
This indicates the main shortage is in refined products, not crude oil barrels.
Hormuz crude oil exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, but refined product exports remain far below pre-war levels.
Brent is still about 40% higher relative to the February baseline of roughly $72.
So my judgment on oil prices remains unchanged:
The release suppresses short-term spikes but cannot eliminate the risk premium of Hormuz.
In the short term, I still see $BZ fluctuating between $95–110.
Only when Hormuz transit continues to recover, and refineries and refined product exports are restored, will oil prices have a chance to approach $90;
but if there are renewed tanker attacks, shipping disruptions, or Middle East refinery impacts, $110–120 could be traded again at any time.
Regarding $BTC:
The real opponent ahead is no longer the non-farm payrolls, but whether oil prices can truly fall.
As long as Brent remains near $100, expectations for rate cuts will hardly fully turn into fuel for risk asset rallies.
So don’t just focus on the G7’s 100 million barrels; watch for:
1️⃣ Whether Brent can effectively break below and hold $100,
2️⃣ Whether U.S. Treasury yields will fall along with oil prices. The CEO personally buying his own ETF—my first reaction isn’t moved, but alert.
How is this different from project founders back in the day coming out to hype their tokens? Simply put, no one else is buying, so they have to go first.
The data makes it clearer. On the third day after listing, net inflow was only $9 million, which is not much in the ETF world. Also, it was specifically mentioned that "investors buy on pullbacks," which translates to: no one chases when it’s rising, only some tentative buying when it dips.
Now the CEO stepping in personally feels more like sending a message to the market: look, I’m buying, so what are you waiting for?
I don’t doubt he really bought, but how much impact can this amount have on NEAR’s price? It’s basically negligible.
What really matters isn’t who bought, but whether others will follow.
This kind of news has more emotional value than actual value. What do you think?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $NEAR $BTC $ETH Yesterday's market was clearly bullish, so why did it drop so much? This is my personal view. At 8:30 last night, the non-farm payroll data came out unexpectedly low at 29,000. The moment it rose, I immediately opened a long position. The price spiked to 2777, then retraced and I took profit. After all, when all the good news is out, it's reasonable to expect a sell-off. Besides, the US causing trouble is not a one-time thing, and the military situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been escalating, pushing international oil prices up. So US inflation will also rise with oil prices. Therefore, even if the probability of a rate hike decreases, it's not certain—at most it will be delayed. When the sell-off started with increased volume, I didn't think about shorting, and I bottom-fished on the third hourly candle. That was a major mistake. The market was very chaotic and didn't break out, so I ended up bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain and finally took a loss.
The market still hasn't broken out now, so don't think about bottom-fishing.
We'll talk more tonight.Crude oil prices have returned, but diesel has not.
Brent crude fluctuated between 98 and 103 on Friday, closing near 102: G7 releases once pushed it down to 98, but with another tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium remains.
Diesel tells a different story: Middle East diesel exports have only recovered to 25% of pre-war levels, and Russia's dropped to 20% in May. The first 20 days of G7 releases prioritized diesel.
The drop in crude oil prices has eased many people's minds, but the average US diesel price is still $6.37, having just hit a record high of $6.52 on September 22. Trucks, farm machinery, and factories all run on diesel, which is the true transmission chain of inflation.
Don't just focus on Brent crude; watch the diesel gap: crude oil trades on sentiment, diesel trades on supply. As long as supply hasn't returned, a key piece of the puzzle for cooling core inflation is missing.Nonfarm "explosion"! Only 29,000 new jobs, rate cut expectations ignite the crypto circle
This nonfarm data directly stunned the market, with only 29,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate soaring to 4.2%, far worse than expected, the US hiring market is basically "lying flat."
The market now basically agrees that the Federal Reserve rate cut is a done deal. Gold and Bitcoin directly benefited from this positive news. Bitcoin is focusing on the resistance level of 85,600-86,000; only by holding above this can it have the momentum to continue rising; 84,200-84,500 is the bulls' last defense line, once broken, the market will weaken. Gold is watching the resistance zone of 4,180-4,200.
Brent crude oil is more conflicted; although rate cuts are positive, poor employment means a weak economy and pressured oil demand, with bulls and bears counterbalancing each other. The key focus is the 101 level.
However, experienced players know that nonfarm data often plays the "good news is bad news" trick. Don't blindly chase highs just because the data is poor; it's easy to encounter a rise followed by a fall. The news landing doesn't mean a nonstop rally; position management must keep up to avoid being repeatedly harvested by the market.Non-farm payrolls surged then fell back, 84000 is the short-term watershed
After the non-farm data release, Bitcoin first surged, then quickly reversed, releasing short-term profit-taking and selling pressure from above.
Breaking it down by timeframe: the 15-minute chart shows a rapid surge and fall; the 1-hour chart slid from 87200 down to 82500, then bounced back to 84600, indicating support below but the rebound didn’t recover the losses; the 4-hour and daily structures are still intact, but the resistance zone between 85000 and 87000 can’t be ignored.
So the positive data only provides a reason to go long, it doesn’t mean the price will keep rising. Next, watch two levels: whether 84000 can hold below, and whether 85000 can be reclaimed above.
Hold steady and then break out with volume; this pullback is just digestion within an uptrend; if the rebound weakens and support breaks, then the non-farm move is likely just an emotional reaction. Data is a catalyst, but in the end, price action will tell the story.
$BTC10.3 BTC
BTC trading record
Short opened at 86347, closed at 84557
Captured 1817 points, gained 9105 oil
After last night's data release, BTC instantly surged to 872, and most who chased longs got stuck at the high
I waited to confirm the downtrend before entering
Finally took profit at 84557, which also coincides with short-term moving average support
Only take the most certain main down wave, not greedy for the tail end of the move
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🚨 ETH looks bullish on paper—but the money flow is sending a warning.
U.S. September payrolls rose just 29K, while unemployment hit 4.2%.
ETH sentiment: 49% bullish | 29% neutral | 22% bearish.
🔥 Bulls: record staking at 34.8%, ~44M ETH locked, positive ETF expectations, and growing ETH/USDC utility.
⚠️ Risks: spot ETH ETF outflows, validator withdrawals, the Aave exploit, Blast shutdown, and a large ETH transfer from a Lubin-related wallet.
#DailyOrbit Bitdeer mined 292.3 BTC in one week, sold them all, and its holdings continue to be zero.
As of October 2, Nasdaq-listed mining company Bitdeer mined 292.3 BTC this week and sold 292.3 BTC, with a net increase of 0 BTC, currently holding zero BTC.
This signals a very clear message: Bitdeer is not choosing to hoard coins but is converting mining output directly into cash flow.
However, this does not mean the mining company is completely bearish on BTC.
Mining company sells coins → recovers cash → covers electricity, operations, and capital expenditures → reduces financial pressure.
What is truly worth watching is whether Bitdeer will continue to maintain the "mine as much as you sell" strategy.
If more mining companies start selling their output simultaneously, supply pressure on the miner side will increase; but a single mining company selling 292.3 BTC weekly has limited direct impact on the overall market.
More importantly, it is about changes in the mining company’s cash flow and capital expenditures.
Bitdeer has already been accelerating its AI cloud and data center business layout, indicating it is shifting some resources from pure mining to AI infrastructure.
Therefore, I prefer to interpret this news as a "change in mining company capital strategy" rather than a simple bearish signal on BTC.
What really needs to be monitored in the short term is whether other mining companies will follow suit in selling coins and whether BTC can continue to absorb miner supply.Forcibly nailing two blueprints onto a single load-bearing structure—that was my first reaction when I saw this all-stock deal. Over eight billion dollars, not exchanged for bricks and tiles, but for the brains of the model research team—this is foundation grouting, not facade decoration.
In any supertall building, the most expensive part is never the glass curtain wall. It's the dozens of meters of unseen pile foundation underground. Computing chips are the rebar; model research is the concrete mix ratio. You think AMD lacks rebar? No, what it lacks is the calculation book that knows what wind pressure the next-generation building must withstand. Buying World Labs is like moving the structural mechanics lab directly into the general contracting project team, shifting from "building according to drawings" to "creating your own drawings."
But there is a fatal structural problem here: all-stock payment. This is not cash flow pouring concrete; it's using your own floor slabs to replace someone else's load-bearing walls. Stock price is the foundation; stocks are prefabricated shear wall components. If the market cools by the end of 2026 delivery, the actual reinforcement ratio of this deal will be diluted—you sign the contract thinking you're exchanging C60 concrete, but at settlement, it might only be C30.
Look at the logic it states: "Understand the next-generation model and workload, then feed back into hardware, software, and system design." This is the right path. A true ecosystem is never about building the building first and then adding pipelines; it's about simultaneous modeling of mechanical, structural, and curtain wall disciplines. Reasoning demand and intelligent agent explosion essentially represent the building's future actual occupancy density—designed by office standards but ending up as storage, with the floor load all wrong. So embedding model research into chip architecture early is an early load verification.
So where is the real risk? At the construction interface. The research team is a freelance artist studio; the chip company is a standardized general contractor. Combining these two work habits, the most common outcome is not a building collapse but indefinite suspension, rework, and drawings not recognized by each other. Historically, many beautiful joint ventures have died in the interior decoration phase due to disputes.
As for that token bearing the US stock name, what I want to say is: at best, it's just a billboard at the sales office of this building. Billboards don't bear loads, don't participate in structural calculations, and sway first when the wind blows. The real load is on AMD's process, packaging, and software stack, not on that sign. It looks lively but you can't touch the rebar.
My judgment is simple: this is a foundation reinforcement, not a topping-off. The benefits of foundation reinforcement can only be seen in the building height three to five years later, but the market always wants to close the deal on the day the first concrete is poured. Whoever treats the design drawings as the completion acceptance report will be cleared off the site during the structural deformation observation period. #amdworldlabsacquisition About $390 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for approximately $322 million, making up over 70%; long position liquidations have been even more dominant within the last 12 hours. This indicates that leveraged funds chasing the rally earlier were relatively concentrated. After BTC$BTC surged but failed to continue breaking through, the subsequent pullback easily triggered consecutive forced liquidations, creating a chain reaction of "decline—liquidation—further decline". #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $AAVE had an address that sold 50,000 tokens in a week at an average price of 160, cashing out 8 million USD.
Is it someone from the team? Analysts say "suspected." You know this term, suspected = I don't dare to confirm but release it first to gain traffic.
What's even more outrageous is that earlier, someone used a third-party adapter on Aave v3 to drain about $305,000 from two Safe multisig wallets. It wasn't a protocol breach, but a small external loophole.
Aave itself is still busy dealing with brand and IP handover to the DAO.
The most contradictory part of the market: it rose 17% in a week, standing near the highest point in the past 7 days, then dropped 0.5% in 24 hours with volume exactly the same as usual.
It didn't drop after liquidation news; who do you think is buying this?
My interpretation: the 180 price level is being supported by someone, but since it rose for a week without volume increase, it means no new money is coming in, just old positions exchanging hands. This kind of structure will either consolidate or look for a lower level, not suitable for me to chase now.
If you're really itching to trade, use a small amount and accept a 50% drop. Don't treat digging into team addresses as insider info; one address can hold more than your entire net worth. $AAVE Have you noticed that every time you stop loss, the price rebounds? Does it feel like the market is just watching that little bit of your money? Losing 200,000U and trying to recover, I used to be like this too. Every time after stopping loss, I would slap my thigh and then chase back in, only to get trapped again, getting slapped in the face repeatedly. Later I realized, it's not the market targeting you, it's your mindset after stopping loss that's the problem. After stopping loss, don't rush back into the market; calm down first and wait for the next clear signal. Currently, BTC price is 84620.4, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I plan to place a long order near 84100, open position with 5000U, stop loss at 83900, target 84800. Never hold a position without a stop loss. Remember, stop loss is not failure, it's protecting your principal. As long as the green hills remain, you won't worry about firewood. $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Evening Review
Before the close, double-check the smart money and positions again. The biggest feeling today: trends will fluctuate, but right or wrong has long been written in the profit and loss.
$HYPE fell 2.30% intraday, the long-short ratio dropped to 124.94%, giant whale longs still dominate in number, with an average open position of 79.55 and considerable unrealized profits; although shorts have a higher profit ratio, their overall position size is far less than the main long forces, more like short-term arbitrage.
My 20x $HYPE long position slightly gave back profits, still with an unrealized profit of +2137.80 and a return rate of 323.36%. Even with a pullback, the safety cushion of the trend-following position remains, keeping my mindset stable.
In contrast, $BICO becomes clearer the more I look:
Even though the nominal long-short ratio is as high as 491% and the number of longs crushes shorts, the giant whale longs' profit ratio is only 26.10%, while shorts are mostly making money. Simply put, a bunch of people are blindly bottom-fishing and catching falling knives, getting trapped deeper the more they buy.
My 8x full-position long is at an unrealized loss expanded to -1334.11, with a return rate of -485.91%. It's not that I chose the wrong direction or name, but that I stood on the side of "many people but not making money."
Summary tonight:
Being bullish ≠ following the trend, more people ≠ stronger main force.
The real main force is the side that can still hold profits during market pullbacks;
And we lose money often because we are deceived by the illusion of "many longs," stubbornly holding on with false hopes.
Next steps: Hold the existing profits on HYPE, no more adding to $BICO. When it's time to admit mistakes, don't stubbornly bet against the market.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC brothers, let's talk about the current BTC market.
Previously, it was pushed up to around 87,000 but got suppressed, mainly because the whales have been taking profits and selling during the rise. This level itself is also a recent channel's upper resistance zone.
During the past week of sideways movement, large holders have reduced nearly 30,000 BTC, worth 2.52 billion USD, clearly lowering their positions and avoiding risks.
Next, focus on the 82,500 support level.
If the price falls back here and we see whales start accumulating again, that would be a signal to buy on dips, with a chance to rebound and retest the 87,000 resistance later.
If this level doesn't hold, the correction could deepen, and the market shouldn't be assumed bullish.
A price drop means locking in profits... 3,000 is the next target. Pump it up... #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ETH $BTC $IMX/USDT 1H
Momentum remains bullish, but price is pressing directly into 0.1936 resistance.
The moving averages are positively stacked, and 0.1906 has become the important short-term floor.
Entry: 0.1905–0.1920
SL: 0.1875
TP1: 0.1936
TP2: 0.1970
TP3: 0.2029
A breakout needs volume because the previous push toward 0.203 was sharply rejected.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease Wait a bit longer, finish reading my long-term plan first. Bitcoin hasn't fully corrected yet; it has only corrected by 5%, so 84000 cannot be considered the starting point of the rally.
1. Since the 87100 level, tested three times, is the expected institutional sell zone, the golden dip washout before the bull market must happen. It should retrace 8%-10% from 87300, right? Before the official bull market surge, there will be a fake drop to shake out weak holders, then a steady rise.
2. The US Treasury repo on 8.19 pushed Bitcoin from 64000 to 78000, and later from 9.18 to 9.22 it rose from 76000 to 87000. These were real money poured into spot ETFs, driving the price up, and the paper profits are real. Washing out chips is a necessary step.
3. The golden dip before the bull market is very applicable to Bitcoin’s previous bull runs. For example, before the main rise in the 2020 bull market, Bitcoin quickly dropped from 12480 to 9900 in September 2020, a 20% retracement washout before surging to 64800; similarly, in the 2024 halving bull market, it fell quickly from 48900 to 42000 in January, a 14% retracement, then rallied past 70000 after the washout.
4. If 87300 is the retracement starting point, calculating a 10% retracement: 87300 - (87300 * 10%) = 78570, which is roughly the ultimate low point of this round of decline.
5. Of course, risks exist. For example, if it’s not the eve of a bull market, even if what I said is true, the retracement could exceed 10%. These are two different scenarios.
6. But I believe the actual $6 billion spot ETF buying, the confirmed bottom at 57700, and the SEC’s easing on crypto all indicate signs of a bull market, so two long-term plans can be made.
7. In the plan, for the short position account, consider shorting in batches within the 85500-87000 range, holding long-term to take profits in batches at 80000-79000.
For the long position account, consider slowly buying in small lots within 79200-75000, finishing buying completely at 75000, occupying no more than 20% of total position, with 3-5X leverage, targeting 100,000 and above.
8. Finally, as long as Bitcoin follows a trend of a 5%-8% retracement followed by a violent surge, according to the plan, everyone’s accounts will multiply many times. Manage your hands well; this account is only for long-term, no short-term trading.30x in 30 days… and ZEC wiped out the dream in just a few days.
I went from making 78,000 in profit to giving back 54,000. That’s how quickly the market can humble you
Looking back at my ZEC trades, it honestly felt like the market could read my mind:
🔴 I go long → price dumps.
🔵 I switch to short → price goes sideways and slowly bleeds me.
🔴 I close the short → price suddenly rockets.
🟢 I chase the long → and get trapped right at the top.
The problem wasn’t ZEC. It was me.
#DailyOrbit When the market is clear, don't easily move your positions or open new ones.
At this time, all we need to do is quietly wait.
In the past two days, $CAP's movement has been extremely volatile, dropping from a high of 0.08469 to a low of 0.05907, a 24-hour decline of -14.67%, and now the price is consolidating around 0.07142.
Looking at the daily chart, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages have started to converge, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth at this level.
I opened a short position at 0.0825, and I am still holding it steadily, currently with an unrealized profit close to 40%.
In between, I experienced a rollercoaster from unrealized profit to unrealized loss, then back to profit. Honestly, it was a bit mentally taxing.
But it also confirmed for me: as long as the direction is correct and the previous high of 0.08888 is not broken, the bearish logic remains valid.
I will not add to my position now, nor will I open new trades.
The stop loss for my short position remains at 0.087, with take profit initially set at 0.06, and if it breaks below that, then look at 0.05.
Now I just need to quietly wait for the market to give the answer, and never panic due to short-term consolidation.
This time, I only want to stick to disciplined trading: no heavy positions, no all-in, no blind trades, restarting with 36U.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 I originally didn't want to check the market over the weekend.
While repairing my phone, the guy at the shop was taking off the back cover and asked me, "Bro, do you trade crypto?" I said a little.
He said he bought some ETH last year and is still stuck with it. I didn't respond.
On the way back, I kept thinking, why are retail investors always so slow to catch on?
Then I opened my computer and saw that SanDisk's legal officer sold 600 shares on October 1st, cashing out $1.04 million.
By itself, this isn't much.
But combined with the CEO's previous two cash-outs totaling 104 million, the tone changes.
The person who understands legal risks best in the company is selling, and outside, Toshiba just announced a 60 billion yen expansion of HDD production, causing Seagate to drop 14% and Western Digital to fall 10%.
Supply is about to loosen, and insiders are running.
SanDisk's own guidance for next quarter was already below expectations, and now even the supply outlook for the storage sector is turning. What do you think will bring it back to 1800?
My short position at 1887.5 is still open, with a floating profit of 90%. I'm not telling you to follow me, I just think if you're still waiting for 1800, you might as well ask yourself: do you understand this company better than the legal officer?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Solana is around $118.
SOL has been volatile enough that I don't want to force a prediction.
The question I'm watching is simpler:
Can buyers gradually push it away from this area and build higher lows?
That would be more interesting than one sudden green candle.#mask hits record market cap over $35 million
[Old Leek Observation]
A small Solana coin with a market cap of less than $40 million suddenly surged into the market spotlight today. $MASK soared over 70% in 24 hours, with its market cap once breaking through $35 million, setting a new all-time high.
What's more interesting is:
This is not the old Mask Network. Instead, it's a recently emerged Solana privacy narrative project called MASK.
Its main focus is: ZK privacy transactions. Currently, $MASK and $ZEC form a liquidity pool.
In other words, it directly ties its narrative to Zcash, a veteran privacy track.
Why is someone suddenly hyping this?
It's actually easy to understand. The market has been re-hyping: privacy + ZK + Solana recently.
Previously, ZEC has re-entered market attention. Now, a small market cap privacy coin on Solana suddenly surges with volume, making it easy for funds to treat it as:
"A high-beta play in the privacy track."
And its market cap is only about $35 million now.
This is also why small coins are most prone to fluctuations of tens of percentage points.
But here, Old Leek wants to remind:
Chasing this coin after a 70% rise is completely different from discovering it initially.
The reported 24-hour trading volume is only about $2.7 million.
The market cap is very small, and liquidity is limited. 2026/10/2. A day suitable for reflection, writing down thoughts as they come……
1. A deeper understanding of "reverse thinking, doing the opposite."
Knowing well that short-term speculative behavior cannot bring huge trend gains, yet still "poverty limits ambition" by earning "small money" in the comfort zone, missing out on huge trend market profits.
The missed opportunity from August 17 to the end of September was huge and profound.
2. Understanding "about a strong culture."
Previously, the approach was from myself—what I want—the world should be like.
Suddenly realizing it should be how the world actually is—what rules exist—what I can do—the cost I pay—and what results I accept.
The most important among these are respecting objective laws, what I am good at and enjoy, and the results and costs.
3. "What truly tests a person is not prosperity, but adversity."
In prosperity, everyone can make money; that’s not impressive. What’s truly remarkable is finding a way to survive in adversity and discovering more opportunities in crises.
This aligns with the core idea of "antifragility."
4. A person’s long-term stable cognitive style will repeatedly produce similar choices, and choices ultimately shape destiny.
The fundamental reason for missing three major market opportunities before is the lack of cognitive upgrade, fixed thinking, somewhat passive actions, plus fundamental problems with courage and confidence.
This time, I must honestly admit my mistakes Looking at my account today, my feelings are really mixed. BTC and SOL are desperately trying to recover my losses, but ZEC, this bottomless pit, has directly given me an extremely costly risk control lesson.
$BTC (The Anchor)
Average holding price 84044, current price 84510, unrealized profit 276.58U, return rate 11.03%. BTC remains the ballast stone of the account, steady rhythm, defense around 79000, as long as it doesn't break, hold on, no guessing tops or messing around.3x leveraged ETP approved, but don't rush to celebrate yet
Regulators have just approved 3x leveraged ETPs linked to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and crude oil. It looks like they've opened the floodgates for the crypto market, but in reality, it might be a capital crusher designed for retail investors.
These products have a brutal daily rebalancing mechanism; the more volatile the underlying asset, the heavier the losses. If Bitcoin spikes 5% to 10% in a day, even if the price eventually returns to the starting point, the account's net value will be unilaterally reduced. A few days of sideways movement can quietly erode the principal.
The real beneficiaries are issuers and institutions: they collect management fees while gaining additional hedging and arbitrage tools within compliant accounts. Retail investors rushing in often buy not a bull market amplifier, but a ticket that provides exit liquidity to market makers.
Understanding the loss mechanism is far more important than rushing to bet bullish or bearish.
$BTC $ETHCoinbase has once again expanded its U.S.-compliant derivatives portfolio, and this time, the truly important thing is that it has begun to take control of its own "liquidation."
On October 3, it was reported that the CFTC had approved Coinbase Clearing as a derivatives clearing organization (DCO), capable of clearing fully collateralized futures, futures options, and swaps.
Simply put, Coinbase has gradually formed a three-tier infrastructure: FCM brokers, DCM trading platforms, and DCO clearing institutions. Some compliant derivatives can complete trades and clearing independently, no longer relying entirely on third parties.
USDC is even more noteworthy.
Coinbase has made it clear that its clearing system is designed around USDC collateral and 24-hour settlement, meaning stablecoins are moving further from a "medium of exchange" toward compliant financial market settlement and collateral infrastructure.
The conduction path is clear:
The CFTC release → Coinbase took control of the clearing process→ USDC as collateral expands its application→ compliant derivative products are more likely to grow→ crypto assets are gradually entering traditional financial infrastructure.
But don't overinterpret the positive news here.
This approval only covers fully collateralized products; leveraged products and Coinbase's planned U.S. stock perpetual contracts still require third-party liquidation and further regulatory approval.
Additionally, this DCO approval does not mean the CFTC has approved any specific prediction markets, nor does it mean Coinbase's prediction markets business has received additional licenses.
My judgment is,"Sharing a rental with $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL for 90 days, I'm almost the property manager now"
The rental agreement was signed for three months. Looking at the state of this place now, I've realized: the crypto market sideways movement is like a shared rental life documentary.
🟠 $BTC lives in the master bedroom: the $84,500 room, the door always half-closed. No sound inside; if you listen closely, it just says "wait and see." No staying up late, no partying, no unpaid utilities, even its breathing follows the weekly chart. When asked in the roommate group chat "Will it move tonight?" it replies with a "🫰" and goes back to sleep. It's the kind of landlord-type roommate you think is brewing a big move, but is actually just sleeping.
🔵 $ETH lives in the second bedroom: the $2,670 room, piled with "L2 delivery boxes" and unopened ecosystem whitepapers. Every morning it says "I'm going to pump today," but by night it still holds the same position, like working overtime until 9 PM only to find the plan rejected. Eyes tired but mouth stubborn: "I'm not useless, I'm waiting for Cancun's next generation." Pays the most rent, but its presence feels like a background wall.
🟣 $SOL lives on the balcony: the $119 spot, turned the balcony into a mini trampoline room. At 2 AM, "thump thump thump," you think someone's coming, but it's still $119. Jumps during the day too, jumping in and out of the room, tracing patterns along the balcony tiles. Pays the most "property fees" (transaction fees), the balcony tiles are almost worn smooth from its stomping, but the property price hasn't moved a cent.
The most suffocating thing is the pinned message in the rental group: Fear and Greed Index 67, saying "Everyone really wants to spend money." But in this place, the water meter doesn't move, the electricity meter doesn't move, only my phone battery is draining.With this BTC drop, I'm starting to suspect someone is accumulating chips at the bottom again. Just looked at the CVD grouping data, and there's an interesting phenomenon on the market: the purple whales representing large funds are showing clear buying, while other fund groups are basically inactive.
Earlier, BTC dropped all the way down from above 87200, hitting a low near 84000. If you look at the CVD, these whales showed more obvious selling pressure before, but after the price dropped, the fund direction turned back to net buying. It's like they pushed the price down from a high level, then slowly accumulated chips at the low level.
More importantly, there is currently no particularly obvious large sell wall. Retail and medium-sized funds are quite quiet; the market activity mainly comes from these purple whales.
So around 84500, I actually don't want to chase shorts. I'll first watch if the 84300–84000 area can hold. As long as this area isn't broken with heavy volume and the whale CVD continues to rise, I'll wait for long opportunities. The first resistance above is 84700; after reclaiming that, watch 85000, then later 85500.
But one thing not to get wrong: whale buying on the CVD doesn't mean the price will immediately take off. The best move at this position is when retail is still hesitating, but whales have already started accumulating.
I'd rather follow the buying and wait for confirmation than rush to short just after BTC took a hit and dropped to above 84000.Is this a scammer selling USDT on C2C?
Today I bought USDT on a certain legitimate platform and chose a certified seller with a high transaction rate.
They asked me to provide Alipay transaction records, but said they couldn't see them on the platform and asked me to add them on WeChat. (At this point, I became suspicious and reminded myself to be cautious.)
After providing the transaction records on WeChat, they sent an Alipay QR code on the platform. Because it was sent on the platform (not on WeChat), I didn't think much and started the transfer.
However, due to risk control, the transfer failed. The other party said they would give me a new QR code later. At this point, I felt something was very wrong. Also, they chatted with me about random things, like when I started playing, which was strange, so I requested to cancel the transaction.
I definitely would not transfer money to the "new QR code," but I want to know if providing a QR code on the platform is also a scam? I read on DeepSeek that transfers must be made through QR codes bound to the platform so the platform can monitor and intervene; sending QR codes privately is very risky.
But after I complained to the platform, they said there was no problem and it was not a violation.
If there were no risk control issues and my transfer succeeded but the other party didn't release the coins, would I have no recourse?
#web3 #bitcoin #blockchain #scamprevention #scamguide #scammersareeverywherebewareofbeingdeceived #keepscammersawayfromme#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Who exactly are the most profitable people on #Polymarket?
Today I saw a pretty interesting report from FT.
On Polymarket, there is an anonymous trader circle called #Alpha, and many members are actually Gen Z, including PhD students, undergraduates, and math experts.
According to the FT report, this group has collectively earned about 40 million USD since 2024.
What’s even more interesting is that I looked further.
A research team analyzed Polymarket’s historical on-chain orders and found that this market has long had many arbitrage pricing deviations, estimating that the arbitrage profits already taken by traders also reached about 40 million USD.
This suddenly made me realize:
Most people, when they see Polymarket, their first reaction is—
Isn’t this just betting on who will win?
But professional traders might see probabilities, odds, information asymmetry, pricing errors, and arbitrage opportunities.
I feel that the Prediction Market sector might be more worth studying than many people imagine.
Are there any friends who have truly played Polymarket long-term?Looking at the leaderboard for a long time, here’s an easy pitfall to avoid.
There are plenty of people with high returns on the leaderboard, but not many can consistently lead trades for more than half a year — I pulled some data, and an average of 221 days leading trades is considered a long time.
Many people choose signal providers by looking at returns at first glance, which is almost the easiest way to get burned — high short-term returns often mean high leverage and big drawdowns. My own criteria are only three:
- Leading trades for a long enough time (at least through one full cycle of ups and downs)
- Able to withstand the maximum drawdown
- The number of followers steadily increases, not fluctuating up and down
Returns are the result, not the cause. Those who survive long term naturally don’t have poor returns.
Which metric do you value most when choosing a signal provider? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#CopyTrading #CryptoMarketThe calm $DOGE is a mirror reflecting market stratification. The greed index measures total sentiment, while price reflects capital choices. The total amount is rising, but the choice bypasses it. For holders, this may not be bad: a marginal position means low crowding. Once the main line saturates and funds overflow, the tail will become the head. Until then, one must get used to the excitement belonging to others. $UNI 4H: Profit-taking pressure at high levels, 8.5 is the short-term lifeline, waiting for moving averages to choose direction
After $UNI retreated from the 10.90 stage high, it entered a continuous consolidation phase. On the weekly level, it remains strong, with a 7-day increase close to 29.91%, and a 30-day cumulative increase as high as 110%. The large amount of previously accumulated profit-taking remains the biggest drag on the market, with long-term selling pressure present.
The 4-hour chart shows a gradual contraction, with price compressed within the 8.5–9.5 range. The EMA50 is near 8.3, providing underlying technical support. The fundamental logic has not changed: Uniswap tokenized stock-related DEX weekly trading volume reached $20.9 billion, accounting for over 60% market share, solidifying the narrative foundation. However, the short-term rally was too large, and the overbought condition requires time to consolidate and digest.
Support and resistance tiers
The 9.3–9.5 range above is a dense area of trapped positions, making rebounds to this zone prone to selling pressure; 8.5 below is the key short-term lifeline. If it breaks down effectively, the short-term consolidation pattern will be disrupted.
Scenario projection (next week)
The market will likely maintain a wide range of 8.3–9.8 consolidation, waiting for the moving average system to complete repair. Only after the moving averages catch up will a mid-term breakout direction be chosen.
Short-term trading range and risk control
Intraday oscillation range: 8.6–9.3.
Intraday stop-loss defense point is set at 8.3. If this level is broken with volume, it means short-term support fails, and further downside risk should be watched for. Mainnet opens contract deployment combined with bank cooperation, NIGHT surges 21.91% in a single day touching $0.05242
NIGHT on OKX surged 21.91% in one day, reaching $0.05242. Those holding positions should watch the turnover at $0.05242 today. The Midnight mainnet officially opened permissionless smart contract deployment yesterday, allowing developers to launch contracts directly without prior security review. The entire network's 24-hour trading volume reached 24.31 million USDT, ranking among the altcoin volatility list.
I checked the project updates this afternoon. Monument Bank in the UK just announced it will tokenize £250 million in retail deposits on Midnight. Combined with the mainnet's permissionless contract deployment opening yesterday, buying pressure directly targeted the spot market. However, on Tuesday, October 7, 19.4 million NIGHT tokens will be unlocked and released, so those holding positions should pay attention to how this supply moves.
I just checked the order book in the OKX contract area. The NIGHT-USDT perpetual funding rate is only -0.028%, meaning shorts pay funding to longs each period, and longs have not borrowed much to chase the price higher. The total altcoin contract open interest on the network is currently at $3.08 billion, the altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio is 1.043, the fear and greed index stands at 67, indicating overall restrained on-exchange capital. ETH surged 3.56% intraday, but the daily close only retained 0.54%
For those following ETH's daily continuation, the daily candle closed on October 2 shows a clear retracement: opened at 2682.98 USDT, peaked at 2778.60, surged 3.56% intraday; finally closed at 2697.39, with the closing gain shrinking to just 0.54%. The upper shadow widened the gap between intraday strength and the closing result.
This daily candle had a spot trading volume of 443 million USDT, up from 316 million the previous day, an increase of 1.40 times. The increased volume confirms expanded divergence that day, but it did not result in a close near the high. Subsequently, the closed 4H candle from 04:00 to 08:00 closed at 2668.71, below the daily close; this is a separate time bucket and should not be considered synchronous with the daily candle.
Only after the subsequent closed 4H candle reclaimed 2697.39 did the retracement structure begin to repair; if the closed 4H falls below 2651, weakness is further confirmed. If the price recovers 2697.39 but volume continues to shrink, would you consider that an effective repair?
#ETH #MarketWatchAfternoon market
$BTC is hanging at 84600, $ETH stopped at 2678. The 15-minute chart has been drained of air, with thin buy and sell orders, making it hard for the price to move even a step.
BTC still had capital inflows a couple of days ago, but now the flow is weakening; ETH is even more awkward, showing no obvious increase in volume yet being pushed upward, like a car coasting on inertia without fuel—it can move, but not for long. Without capital relay, it will eventually have to go down to find liquidity.
SOL still has that follower temperament: it laughs when the big brother laughs, cries when the big brother cries, always lacking independence.
Today's market is boring, with volatility compressed into a line. Viewers are sleepy, holders are mentally exhausted. Some silently hold positions, treating losses as faith and rebounds as redemption. But the market does not reward stubbornness, only discipline.
May we all avoid being heroes who stubbornly hold positions, and instead be traders who know how to cut losses and wait. Rest when there is no market, only by staying alive can we catch the next wave.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $ETH Daily Chart｜Eighth Day of Extreme Box Range Consolidation! 2566 Decides the Mid-Term Bullish Fate
Since $ETH surged to touch a 120-day high on September 22, it has fully entered a high-level contraction and washout structure, now consolidating narrowly for the eighth consecutive day.
This round of consolidation is highly regular, locked long-term within the core box range of 2600–2750, with continuous turnover between bulls and bears and shrinking volume, representing a typical post-surge accumulation and retracement to wash out floating positions.
The most critical structural change in this round comes from the core price level of 2566:
The previously long-term resistance at the upper boundary of the contraction has recently structurally switched from resistance to support, becoming the absolute mid-term lifeline for the continuation of the bulls.
From a trend definition perspective:
As long as the 2566 level is not effectively broken down, all pullbacks are classified as healthy retracements confirming the breakout, the daily bullish structure remains intact and complete, and the mid-term bullish bias remains unchanged.
If 2566 is broken down with volume, this phase's breakout structure will be completely invalidated, and the market will return to wide-range consolidation or even a deep correction.
Trading Levels:
Currently, it is a bottom-building and accumulation phase waiting for a breakout, with very clear structural layers:
1. Base Position Range: The middle axis of the box is suitable for laying out base positions, aiming to play the subsequent catch-up rally.
2. Add Position Threshold: Effectively holding above the 2750 upper box boundary indicates the end of consolidation and the restart of the bulls, allowing for adding positions accordingly.
3. Trend Confirmation: Breaking above the previous high of 2807 again completely ends the eight-day washout, and the short-term uptrend fully returns Non-farm payrolls fell far short of expectations, triggering a strong wave of buying
$BTC surged from around 84,800 to now stand at 86,780 on the 4-hour chart, effectively breaking through the long-standing strong resistance at 85,640, which has now turned into support.
343 coins rose, only 56 fell, with many tokens gaining between +2% and +8%
The profit-making effect is fully activated, while the loss-making effect is weak; it's not just BTC pulling the market, funds are willing to spread #Tensions between the US and Iran continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves
The leader has something to say
The G7 has taken action. In a video conference on October 2, it was decided to coordinate through the IEA to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined product reserves over the next four months, prioritizing accelerated diesel release in the first 20 days. The reason is the tense US-Iran situation, with uncertainties in Hormuz shipping and energy supply disturbing the market.
In the short term, this is a practical move to suppress oil prices. Dropping 100 million barrels can ease supply tightness and cool inflation expectations. This is positive for risk assets.
But don’t celebrate too soon. Releasing reserves is a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution. The US-Iran situation remains unresolved, the Hormuz risk persists, and oil tankers can be stopped at will. The G7 itself said that if market pressure continues, further releases will be discussed. This shows they know this wave might not be enough to hold down prices.
For crypto, if oil prices are suppressed, interest rate hike expectations will continue to cool, providing short-term support for BTC. But with long-term US Treasury yields above 5.6%, fiscal deficits and bond supply pressure remain, so this ceiling hasn’t been broken.
Yesterday, long BTC positions were taken at 86000, with a short opened at 86500. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. The logic is that the positive news has been priced in, there is dense resistance above, and short-term trading expects a pullback. The G7’s reserve release does not change this rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Manage your positions well, don’t overleverage. Set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.#美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman: AI development is bringing new inflationary pressures, what is the impact on BTC?
The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman stated that AI development is bringing new inflationary pressures.
The key point here is not the direct impact of AI itself on $BTC, but that AI investment expansion may drive up demand for computing power, energy, and related resources, thereby reinforcing inflation stickiness and affecting the Fed's future interest rate path.
From the transmission logic perspective:
• Increased AI capital expenditure: demand for chips, servers, electricity, and data centers rises, potentially driving related price and cost pressures;
• Rising inflation expectations: if inflation rises again, the market may reprice rate hike expectations;
• Changes in interest rate expectations: higher rates or longer duration of elevated rates usually negatively impact risk assets sensitive to valuations;
• BTC risk appetite fluctuations: BTC, as a highly volatile risk asset, is easily influenced by the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and market sentiment.
Regarding the $BTC market, focus on three points:
1. US dollar and US Treasury yields: if the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, BTC is more likely to face short-term pressure;
2. Core inflation data: if upcoming inflation data continues to exceed expectations, policy expectations may further shift hawkish;
3. BTC's own volume: if BTC cannot break through key levels with increased volume, it indicates risk appetite among investors remains weak.
Personal view:
The inflationary pressure brought by AI development is essentially a "supply constraint" and "policy expectation" issue. The market may shift from "AI benefits tech stocks" to "whether AI forces the Fed to tighten more," which is not positive for risk assets like BTC.
Under this macro narrative, position management is more important than directional judgment.
Risk warning:
The above content is only macro information and market observation, not investment advice. Virtual currency contract trading carries extremely high risk; please manage your positions carefully. @OKX星球 According to exclusive information from Culpium, insiders revealed that TSMC is considering operating a new wafer fab in Texas, USA, potentially with SpaceX and Terafab as major customers.
Potential cooperation methods include equity participation, long-term procurement commitments, or a combination of both.
It is worth noting that this is not the same model as the project Intel is currently involved in.
Intel joined in April 2026 as a process partner, mainly providing 14A process and advanced packaging technology, and has not obtained equity in Terafab.
Terafab is supported by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, aiming to mass-produce custom chips for AI, robotics, and orbital computing systems, with the project located in Texas.
Simply put, there may currently be two routes:
① Intel: providing 14A process and advanced packaging capabilities;
② TSMC: possibly directly participating in wafer fab construction/operation and providing wafer manufacturing around core customers.
If the news ultimately materializes, Terafab's supply chain layout may further expand, and the relationship among TSM, INTC, and the SpaceX AI chip ecosystem is also worth continuous attention. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 last night. After the data was released, the market's initial reaction leaned towards being positive for risk assets, with BTC once surging to around 87,220.
But looking again today, the price has already fallen back to around 84,500.
So now I'm less concerned about the words "nonfarm positive". The data is just a catalyst; what really matters is whether the price can hold key levels after the positive news is priced in.
Next, focus on two key levels:
If $BTC can firmly hold above 85,000 again, there is still value in watching for further upside; but if it can't even hold 84,000, then the pullback after this rally requires more caution.
The data has been digested, now it’s about how the candlesticks move.
#BTC #ETH #Nonfarm #USEmploymentData #SpotETFShorted too early, entered at 13 points short
After shorting, it kept rising to 33 points, with a maximum loss of 600 u
At that time, I regretted why I had to do altcoins
This increase exceeded my expectations
Still held on stubbornly
This behavior is wrong
This time I got lucky
Doesn't mean next time will be the same
Because altcoin surges really have no logic
It's all about how the whales manipulate the market
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%