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Last week, New York filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, determining that this type of prediction market constitutes illegal gambling.
This week, the CFTC submitted two regulatory proposals to the White House, directly classifying prediction markets as swaps. According to federal law, swap business falls under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, and states have no authority to regulate it independently, marking a new development in the regulatory power struggle.
The two proposals have clear divisions of responsibility.
The first proposal directly categorizes event-based contracts as swaps, bringing Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood's prediction market products under CFTC regulation.
The second proposal specifically excludes pure gambling products, clarifying regulatory boundaries and distinguishing between ordinary gambling and compliant event contracts.
Currently, the two proposals are under review by the White House Office of Management and Budget. Public comments will be solicited only after approval. There is still some time before implementation, and they are not yet in effect, but the policy direction is already very clear.
There is also a judicial tug-of-war behind this. Previously, the Sixth and Ninth Circuit Courts of Appeals have ruled on the definition of swaps, and the Supreme Court has accepted three related appeals. This matter will most likely await a final ruling from the Supreme Court to settle it once and for all. $BTC $ZEC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 BTC at $83,900, are you betting on 90,000?
PCE was cooler, BTC surged to 85,500, then was pushed back to 83,900 by the 5.3% US Treasury yield. ETF had nine consecutive positive days but then stopped at 149 million. Is this a shakeout or a trend change?
First, look at the surface: data day spikes are not direction confirmations.
On Wednesday, PCE data came out: August year-over-year at 3.4%, core at 3.0%, lower than some expectations. BTC surged to 85,500-85,600 within hours, short sellers were swept out. Then what? The 10-year US Treasury yield remained near 5.3%, and the 30-year yield was close to the highest since 2002. The rebound didn’t hold, and on Thursday it returned to the 83,900 you see. Monday’s low at 82,570-82,600 still stands, and the September 21 high at 87,300-87,400 was not broken.
Remember one thing: data day spikes are not direction confirmations. Don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal.
First thing: PCE gave a boost, bonds did not.
PCE was cooler, the market was excited for an hour. But the bond market didn’t cooperate, yields didn’t drop, so BTC couldn’t rise. 🔥$ZEC surged to 1400 then plummeted—this time, is it a deep squat before takeoff or the final farewell?
My analysis framework:
🟢 Bullish logic: If 1220-1250 holds, after the NU7 upgrade lands, there's a high probability of testing the 1700-1865 range. Supply contraction + ETF funds + network qualitative change triple resonance.
🔴 Bearish risk: If it breaks below 1350 with volume, the consolidation period will lengthen, with a pullback target of 1100-1080. Some in the OKX community directly say "all altcoins end up at zero," and this voice is not without reason.
⚖️ Most likely scenario: consolidation and shakeout before the upgrade, repeatedly digesting profit-taking in the 1250-1400 range, then choosing direction after NU7 activation.
One honest final word:
ZEC's logic hasn't changed; what changed is your cost basis. Those who didn't get in at 500 USD and now chase 1400 will doubt everything after a 15% pullback. Position control is ten times more important than direction judgment.
What do you think? After the NU7 upgrade, will ZEC break through 1700 or retest 1100? Post your target price in the comments.
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 BigShort101 — Day 3 🩳
$30,766 bought back in the first 3 days.
This round: $4,064.92 across 44 tokens, with 384 successful transactions.
Top buybacks:
$shortguy — $2,842.53
$QUANT — $507.34
$111 — $435.01
Memes buying memes. The relay continues.The first US NEAR spot ETF has been listed on NYSE Arca with the ticker NRR and a management fee of 0.75%. On the first day, net inflows were about $35.5 million, trading volume about $15.1 million, and the fund size about $36 million.
This ETF does not simply hold NEAR; it also plans to use the NEAR held by the fund for internal staking, with staking rewards included in the fund's net asset value. For institutions, besides price exposure, they can also benefit from staking rewards, adding an extra layer of appeal.
NEAR receiving spot ETF treatment indicates it has passed the SEC review and is recognized on a compliance level. This is another single-asset spot ETF after BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. First time buying crypto
Purely following the trend
Someone in the group showed off their profits
I got blinded by greed
Rushed in and bought $BTC
It dropped right after I bought
Those days, I felt unmotivated doing anything
Later I realized
It wasn’t that I picked well
It was just bad luck
I also held $ETH
Made me question my life
Couldn’t bear to sell when it rose a bit
Too scared to buy more when it dropped a bit
Ended up breaking even
Just wasted effort
There was also $SOL
Bought at the top chasing the price
Didn’t sleep well for three days
Sold it and then it went up again
So mad I closed the app
Now I’ve learned my lesson
Only use spare money
Keep position small enough to not matter
If it rises, just add a small amount
If it falls, it doesn’t affect my life
Don’t trust anyone shouting trade calls
Don’t borrow money
Don’t stay up late watching the charts
Candlesticks won’t get better just because you stare at them
This game can be played
But don’t let it play you
Being alive is better than anything #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Hello everyone,
Today the overall account performance looks good, but the process was extremely torturous. $NEAR and ZEC full-position long orders are still held, with profits fluctuating amid pullbacks and struggles. SOL just opened an isolated margin long order to test the waters, basically hovering near the cost line.
$NEAR: Profit Defense Battle
Entry price 4.909, current price 5.0920.
Full position 20X, unrealized profit 165.25U, ROI 71.09%.
This order once earned nearly double at its peak, now it has pulled back to 71%. Honestly, watching the profit shrink day by day stirs some emotions.
$ZEC: Underwater Defense
Entry price 1403.02, current price 1398.72.
Full position 20X, unrealized loss 3.18U, ROI -6.15%.
This order once lost 12%, today it slightly recovered but is still struggling underwater.
$SOL: Isolated Margin Test
Entry price 117.41, current price 117.44.
Isolated margin 20X, unrealized profit 1.09U, ROI 0.51%. Margin rate 19.98%.
Newly opened order, just entered and is rubbing near the cost line. Why open a new order now? Note, it’s isolated margin. Because the previous full-position orders are pulling back and the market is unclear, I deliberately use isolated margin to isolate risk and test SOL.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The tax rules have been written into the proposal, but the law has not been enacted yet.
Daines dropped a 56-page ADAPT: Qualified USD stablecoins used for purchases generally do not recognize gains or losses, and wash sales are also proposed to extend to digital assets. The media loves to copy GENIUS's stablecoin payment line—I’m watching the effective date: most provisions are written to take effect after 2026-12-31, and it still needs to pass both chambers and be signed.
Whether the draft passes review is another matter. I'll first separate the "proposal-level tax rules" from the "already enacted laws."
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT The gang leader has something to say
The US Senate has introduced a new crypto tax bill, the ADAPT Act.
Key points: No capital gains or losses recognized for stablecoin purchases of goods and services. Wash sale rules extended to digital assets. Gas fees under $10 are tax-exempt. It also covers tax treatment for staking, lending, and ETF pledging.
I think this is a step toward compliance in the tax system. Tax exemption for stablecoin daily payments effectively opens payment scenarios for USDT and USDC, making them function more like money. But the extension of wash sale rules tightens regulations, making short-term trading tax loss harvesting less feasible. Tax exemption for small gas fees is beneficial for high-frequency on-chain operations.
Overall, the bill is still in the legislative stage and not yet effective, so it doesn't directly boost coin prices in the short term. But in the long run, clearer crypto tax rules will encourage institutional participation, which is a slow-moving factor.$TRUMP $TRUMP The king of understanding is wild again, a 15-minute roller coaster is really thrilling!
Just took a short break, TRUMP is on a roller coaster again. Directly from 2.04 to 2.25, now fluctuating repeatedly at 2.18. Bollinger Bands are opening, trading volume is 149 million u. Funds are crazily competing.
Every time I buy MeMe coin, it feels like riding a roller coaster. One second in heaven, the next in hell. At this position, there is support at 2.08 below and resistance at 2.25 above.
It's a buying point to enter the position, let's see if you're just showing off or if you really have the skills $MON has risen quite a bit these days, but it's still far from the 0.5 it was at when it first launched. At launch, the slogan was to have Solana's performance, $ETH's user base, and $SUI's ecosystem! However, the market didn't buy into it, and after launch, it plummeted, dropping to 0.015, a decline of over 95%, gradually fading away in the crypto world! During this bull market period, it finally started to rise, gaining 20% just today. I believe many brothers have already chased the rally, but in my view, chasing now is just handing over your chips, as there's a year's worth of trapped positions waiting to be released. If you dare to chase, they dare to take all your chips!TVL is approximately $1.261 billion. Cumulative trading volume exceeds $2.3 billion. Depositing users exceed 54,000.
With a TVL of $1.2 billion, it ranks among the top DeFi protocols. This is not a "whitepaper project." This is infrastructure where institutions have already invested real money.
The second truth: Coinbase's "roadmap effect" is the first wave of fuel.
The first spark for CT's surge was not its listing on exchanges, but on Coinbase.
In mid-September, Coinbase added CT to its asset listing roadmap and generated deposit addresses for the ERC-20 token.
Do you understand this signal?
Coinbase's roadmap is not a promise of "upcoming listing." According to Coinbase's own policy, the roadmap is just a "candidate list," and assets may be delayed or removed before trading begins.Many people try to recover their losses all at once, but end up losing even more. I used to be like that too, losing 200,000U. Later I realized that recovery doesn't come from going all in, but from steadily accumulating small profits. Currently BTC is at 83615.6, resistance at 83825.42, support at 83123.1. My strategy is simple: lightly short near resistance with a stop loss at 83900 and a target of 83400; lightly long near support with a stop loss at 83050 and a target of 83700. Small positions of 5000U, never hold without stop loss. Take a little profit each time and move on, small gains add up. Remember, on the road to recovery, slow is fast. $BTC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
Trading Log October 1st
Opened a long position on ETH three days ago
No unrealized losses, added to the position, quietly waiting for the market to reveal the answer
The market is always there
Stay at the table
More important than making money
When there is no clear signal
Do not trade frequentlyTrading insights: Occasionally profiting from faulty logic is very dangerous. The money earned from wrong logic is just a temporary bonus lent to you by the market, not a sign of strong trading ability. There is a hidden fatal risk here. First, it easily solidifies illusions—occasional profits lead to the mistaken belief that this flawed method works! Luck is misjudged as skill, creating a distorted trading perception.
Second, it amplifies greed. Lucky gains encourage the impulse to take heavy positions, making one bolder and continuously increasing stakes by repeating this flawed logic. Third, it plants the risk of liquidation. A faulty system cannot withstand market reversals; just one extreme market event can wipe out all previous profits at once $BTC $ETH 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ZEC】
Monitored address 0xc30c opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 1,396.28 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 74,309.97 USD
▪ Leverage: 10xPENDLE Has the Product. Now Price Needs Proof
PENDLE is expanding into RWAs, tokenized stocks and institutional yield.
The fundamentals are real. Price remains unconvinced.
Around $2.35, PENDLE is still ~61% below its 2025 high.
$2.10 is the level that matters. Lose it, and structure weakens.
$2.78 is the first sign sentiment’s turning.
This is a watch, not a long.
The market wants real TVL, volume and fee growth—not more announcements.
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
$PENDLE The gang leader has something to say
The US Senate has introduced the ADAPT Act, a new crypto tax law. Here are the key points. Buying goods and services with stablecoins does not recognize capital gains or losses. Wash sale rules are extended to digital assets. Gas fees under $10 are tax-exempt. It also involves tax treatment for staking, lending, and ETF pledging.
I believe this law is moving the tax system toward compliance.
Tax exemption for daily stablecoin payments opens payment scenarios for USDT and USDC. In the future, buying things with stablecoins won’t require calculating capital gains, making them function more like money.
The extension of wash sale rules is a tightening. This rule existed for stocks before, and now it applies to digital assets as well. Selling short-term and immediately buying back cannot be used for tax loss harvesting. The "CORE Bank" that everyone has been asking about, where exactly is it now?
The CORE Bank that many people talk about is officially named SatPay (Bitcoin New Bank/Neobank). It is not a traditional bank where you can open an account immediately. It is the most important "BTC-Fi landing flagship" on the entire chain and also the real income engine everyone is most looking forward to.
Breaking down the current real progress:
- ✅ The foundation has been set: Cooperation has been established with the overseas new bank infrastructure team Mobilum, based on the Hermes hard fork upgraded mainnet as the foundation. The technical framework for the three major modules of staking, lending, and payment has been finalized; the goal is to enable BTC to be used without giving up custody rights, allowing it to earn interest, be used as collateral for loans, and even be directly linked to a consumption card for use.
- ✅ AMP asset management protocol has been piloted: Equivalent to the "bank's wealth management department" going live early for testing, packaging BTC+CORE staking yields into strategies, generating fees, and partially flowing back to repurchase CORE; this is a preliminary experimental field for SatPay to generate its own cash flow, and the model has been verified on a small scale.
- ⚠️ The public official version is not yet available: Currently in the stages of compliance integration, institutional custody channel opening, and internal testing refinement; the official team has not provided a definite launch date. Recent Twitter updates mostly focus on directions and showcasing partner progress, without releasing a fully open product entry point. #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 $BTC The biggest lesson from trading recently is: with little capital, you absolutely cannot use high leverage. 100x leverage means that just a 1% adverse move will liquidate your position; this margin for error in the crypto world is basically a death sentence. I once held a heavy position on a certain coin and stubbornly held on, watching the liquidation price come within 0.4%. That suffocating feeling of staring at the K-line late at night is something I never want to experience again.
The core logic for trading BTC and ETH is "low leverage + spot mindset + strict stop-loss." Don’t always think about getting rich overnight. In this market, surviving longer is always more important than making quick profits.$BTC $ETH $ZEC These three are not moving in sync.
I still only wait for buying opportunities after a pullback,
even if it means waiting half a day,
I won’t switch to short positions.
If I lose, I handle it according to plan,
if I profit, I take it at the target.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Is $SNDK repeatedly squeezing both sides? 👀 Let's break down the latest order-book structure. On the 15-minute chart, price is sitting at an important decision area after bouncing from an oversold move. 1️⃣ ORDER BOOK STRUCTURE • Overhead supply zone: **1,782–1,795** Sell orders are appearing in several layers. Larger visible blocks around **1,783–1,786** and another cluster near **1,791–1,794Not talking about K-line today. What we're discussing is: how CT's recent surge actually happened, and within that 1855% increase, how much is real and how much is leveraged.
The first truth: this is not "speculating on new coins," this is "speculating on infrastructure."
First, let's clarify who is behind CT.
Concrete is developed by Blueprint Finance. Blueprint is a New York-based company established after the 2023 FTX incident, having raised over $17 million in total funding, with investors including Polychain Capital, YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), and VanEck.
This is not a fly-by-night team. Polychain is one of the top VCs in the crypto industry, YZi Labs is backed by Binance, and VanEck is a traditional asset management giant managing hundreds of billions of dollars.Getting into virtual currency, at first I really didn't take it seriously. My friends kept posting screenshots in the group every day, and I was envious watching them, so I opened an account. My first purchase was some $BTC. After buying, I regretted it—afraid of a drop, afraid of missing out. I couldn't even sleep well those days. Later, I gradually understood a bit—not really understood, just lost a lot and learned not to mess around. I held $ETH for a while, didn't make much, but also didn't sell at the lowest point, so I guess I was lucky. I also tried $SOL in between; it surged sharply and dropped sharply too. If you have a weak heart, really don't play. Now my position is very small, just for fun. If I make money, I treat myself to a good meal; if I lose, I order a cheaper takeout. Don't borrow money, don't get carried away, don't believe in guaranteed profits. When others shout buy signals, you lose money, and they won't be responsible. The market moves even at midnight; you can't watch it all the time or control it. Getting a good night's sleep is more important than anything. There are opportunities in this field, but even more traps. Surviving is better than making a quick profit. Now when people ask me if they can play, I just say use spare money, play small, don't take it seriously. Life is still life, coins are just coins. #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #Interest Rate Hike Expectations Delayed, September Nonfarm Payrolls Become the Next Key
$BTC
US August Core PCE year-on-year and month-on-month were below expectations, indicating inflation is easing. The market has lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, with Goldman Sachs pushing rate hike expectations to December. Although some Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, the market has already started pricing in a pause in rate hikes. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset; when liquidity expectations ease, risk appetite for funds increases. The market is now focused on the September nonfarm payroll report, as employment strength will directly alter Fed policy expectations.
On the order book, after the previous pullback, bearish pressure has somewhat eased, and there is buying support on the downside.
Choose to buy BTC on dips. Core logic: easing inflation suppresses rate hike expectations, market risk appetite warms up, waiting for nonfarm payrolls to catalyze the market. (The usual pattern: the market trades Fed liquidity expectations, rate hike expectations cool down, and risk assets tend to rebound.)
Currently in a data waiting window, as long as nonfarm payroll data does not significantly exceed expectations, US Treasury yields are unlikely to continue rising, giving BTC room to rebound. If employment data falls short of expectations, the rebound elasticity of risk assets will further increase.
Key focus: September nonfarm payrolls, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar trend.
$BTC A very low perpetual funding rate does not mean that leverage risk has disappeared.
Many people see the $ETH perpetual funding rate close to zero and assume the market is not crowded. The problem is, the rate only reflects the short-term price balance between long and short contracts; it does not directly tell you how large the total position size is. As long as both longs and shorts increase leverage simultaneously, the rate can remain calm while open interest keeps piling up.
The real danger is when price volatility is low, open interest keeps rising, but spot trading does not keep pace. At this point, the market is like a spring pulled tight on both sides; a single macro data release or a large order can trigger a cascade of stop losses. If position growth is supported by spot inflows, the risk is somewhat lower; if it’s just contracts betting against each other, the stability is only temporary.
Funding rates on different platforms can also offset each other. One side may be long-biased, the other short-biased, making the aggregated value appear neutral while actual positions are highly concentrated. Observing extreme values, duration persistence, and price premiums on individual platforms is often more useful than watching a market-wide average.
When the price finally breaks out of the range, which side blows up first is often determined by the position structure rather than the sign of the funding rate.
Low funding rates do not equal low risk; sometimes it just means neither longs nor shorts have conceded yet. XRP has been consolidating around the 1.50 level for five days—not the price that's being tested, but retail investors' patience, because institutions are quietly accumulating.
1. Institutional channels are silently expanding: According to CoinShares weekly report, XRP had a net inflow of $92.3 million last week, ranking third across the entire industry.
Price hasn't moved, but funds are flowing; such divergence usually precedes price correction.
2. Box consolidation: Between 1.49 and 1.54, it has been sideways for five trading days, with volatility compressed to this month's lowest level. Next is the time to choose a direction.
Most of its supply cap has been priced in, so I lean towards an upward move.
3. Positive factors like RLUSD, Brazil, and Coinbase collateral are slowly materializing, but none are strong enough to be a trigger—the missing piece is a weekly candle with volume expansion.
My view: The five-day sideways consolidation is not in vain; the direction choice is near. For the first wave, I’m targeting 1.6 A bull market is never a straight line upward. Some of the biggest opportunities are created when the market suddenly shakes out weak hands. One group sells in fear, another uses the volatility to rebalance. We can't control where price goes, but we can control our exposure, risk and discipline. My five core watchlist cards: $BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC $UNI These aren't simply momentum plays in my framework. Each has an established role within different parts of the crypto/Web3 ecosystem, so short-term From BTC to BCH to CORE Hard Fork: A Decade-Long Tug of War Over "Decentralization"
⚠️For research review only, not investment advice
From the BTC scaling debate, to the BCH hard fork, and now to the CORE token burn hard fork, these ten years have essentially been a prolonged struggle centered on the concept of decentralization.
In the early days, Bitcoin blocks were only 1MB, causing transaction congestion and huge community disagreements. The big block faction advocated direct scaling to make Bitcoin a daily payment cash; the Core development team insisted on small blocks, fearing that larger blocks would prevent ordinary users from running nodes, leading the network toward centralization. In 2017, the conflict erupted completely, resulting in the BCH hard fork that expanded blocks to 8MB, splitting the two chains.
This debate continued into the BTCFi track with the CORE public chain. CORE's current hard fork plans to burn 150 million excess tokens to restore market confidence, but the governance issue of 21-node centralization remains. Code vulnerabilities can be fixed, but the structural contradiction of concentrated node power is difficult to eliminate with a single hard fork.
After a decade of fork wars, the core problem remains unchanged: it is difficult to achieve both performance and decentralization.
As the wisdom of the I Ching suggests, nothing is absolutely perfect. Every public chain must make trade-offs among efficiency, security, and decentralization. There is no perfect solution; all upgrades are a continuous process of balancing. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $BTC
Bullish bias. I'm holding my long position with a cost basis of 84300, and the current price is near the breakeven point.
The funding rate is 0.0068%/8h; a positive rate indicates longs are still paying to add positions, so the enthusiasm hasn't cooled. The open interest (OI) is 2.367 billion U, showing no decrease in volume and no capital flight. These two indicators support that the overall structure remains intact.
However, there's a contradiction here: the ADX (4H) is at 32.28, which indicates a strong trend, but the price is stuck grinding within a narrow range between 83765 and 84545, just a few hundred points. The 4H RSI is only 52.62, showing no strong momentum. The high ADX and narrow price range conflict, possibly indicating accumulation.
I plan to add some position when the price breaks the first resistance at 84545 to confirm strength. If it falls back below my cost basis of 84300 and fails to recover, I will exit half of my position. If it breaks the strong support below at 83118, I will admit my mistake and fully exit.
The price level that would prove my bullish bias wrong is 83118. If it breaks below here, I acknowledge I was wrong. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 You keep adding to a losing position, hoping to pull the average cost closer, just like trying harder to hold onto something that's already decided to leave. But sometimes the trend is the trend, and forcing it only makes the damage bigger. Xiao Ma is staring at the two positions on the screen again: $ETH and $BTC — both fully long. Current unrealized drawdown: $ETH: around -38.6% $BTC: around -68.9% Sitting here, I'm asking myself again: Am I patiently waiting for a reversal, or am I simply refHot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH decline accompanied by active selling, open interest basically flat: 15-minute price -0.42%, active buying 35.0%, volume 2.3 times. Short-term weakness with volume support, open interest scale did not expand synchronously.Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling about $3.08 billion, but the inflow pace has clearly slowed in the last three days, with only $66.19 million on September 29. On the other hand, ETH ETFs, after 7 consecutive days of inflows totaling $851 million, experienced a net outflow of $2.81 million on September 29. Money is still flowing into BTC, but at a slower rate, while ETH has started to flow out.
This shift is more important than the price itself. Previously, ETH ETFs were attracting funds in sync with BTC, but the sudden divergence indicates that institutional short-term preferences for the two assets have changed. BTC can still hold because its ETF buying momentum has inertia, but the decreasing inflows mean fewer funds chasing higher prices. Although ETH's outflow is only $2.81 million and not large, the signal is not good. If ETH continues to see outflows in the coming days, the overall sentiment in the crypto market will be dragged down, making it difficult for BTC to remain unaffected.
For BTC, short-term support is around 82,000, with strong resistance still at 85,000 above. The slowdown in fund inflows combined with ETH's diversion increases the difficulty of an upward breakout in the short term. With non-farm payroll data yet to be released, large funds are hesitant to move recklessly, so the market is likely to continue oscillating.$ZEC failed to hold 1400 today, does that mean it will definitely reach 1300 tomorrow? I don't think so, because right now they are operating in an up-and-down sweep mode.
Looking at the market, ZEC has fallen from a high of 1698 to 1404, with each rebound peak getting lower, which looks like a downtrend. But look at the long-short ratio in the screenshot: long positions account for 43.33%, short positions 56.67%, with a long-short ratio of 0.76. Shorts actually dominate, which means the market makers won't let shorts easily profit. Under this structure, big rises and big falls are difficult; it's more likely to be repeated tug-of-war, sweeping both hesitant longs and shorts out.
Looking at the latest news, there are several important signals. Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss publicly expressed a bullish stance, stating that the current market sentiment for Zcash is very similar to Bitcoin in 2019. Meanwhile, a huge whale withdrew 2000 ZEC from Binance, consolidating it into a main holding address, which currently holds about $66.19 million worth of ZEC—large funds are withdrawing and locking tokens. The NU7 upgrade schedule is also set: testnet activation on October 6, official launch on November 5, with block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
Technically, ZEC broke below the key support at 1500, the 14-day RSI fell to 53.41, indicating weakened buying pressure. The key support below is at 1350-1400, with resistance above at 1420-1450. Imagine working diligently at a job your whole life.
Decades of sweat, slowly accumulating wealth.
But currency can be continuously issued, and inflation is that invisible thief quietly diluting the fruits of your twenty years of labor.
All fiat currency systems have this weakness: there is no ceiling on the money supply.
What makes Bitcoin most special is that its total supply is locked at 21 million coins. It has no printing press; no one can arbitrarily increase its supply.
Many people invest regularly in BTC essentially to combat the wealth dilution caused by unlimited money printing.
$BTC Neither rising nor falling can gain momentum, how long will this market consolidation last?
$BTC surged again today, reaching around 84300, but the familiar script played out once more: a spike, a loss of momentum, and a return to around 83000.
The support between 83000-82500 is holding firm below, while resistance at 85000 is suffocating above. Bulls and bears are tugging back and forth within these few thousand points, trading T to numbness; ironically, the most helpless stance now is to hold tight.
$ETH, however, is clearly stronger, climbing to 2720 before pulling back to 2680, then quickly stabilizing near 2690, with a smaller drop compared to BTC.
But don’t get excited too soon.
The more it resists falling, the more you need to watch out for a bull trap.
If ETH starts attracting chasing buyers and the chips are mostly accumulated, the real scythe might just fall.
Next, keep a close eye on 2650-2630; as long as it doesn’t break below, expect continued consolidation; if it breaks, then redefine the direction.#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
Brothers, there has been an extremely subtle divergence in capital flows. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, accumulating about $3 billion, completely reversing the months-long mid-term outflow. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed nearly 50% of the inflows.
But on the Ethereum side, there was a net outflow of $2.8 million on September 29, ending a 7-day streak of inflows. The next day, outflows expanded directly to $59.6 million, with Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETH each withdrawing over $26 million. What does this mean? Institutions have rebalanced their positions between BTC and ETH. ETH had surged earlier, so some funds chose to take profits and shifted to increase BTC holdings.
But note a key detail: the average holding cost for Bitcoin ETFs is about $81,700, and BTC is now near $84,000, so fund investors have just moved from unrealized losses to unrealized gains. In the profit zone, investor behavior changes—some want to lock in profits, others want to double down, making the battle very intense.
Whether ETH outflows are a trend depends on the next couple of days. If outflows continue, it’s rotation; if it’s just a single-day pullback, it’s a shakeout. Don’t rush to conclusions, don’t give up your chips during a shakeout, and going with the flow is the way to go! $NVDA New AI agent partnerships continue to emerge, but why does Nvidia's contract still depend on cash flow?
OKX NVDAUSDT perpetual quote is about 230.36, with a 24-hour low around 227.54; this is the contract price, not the Nasdaq spot stock price. New chips and application collaborations can boost demand expectations, but order fulfillment, delivery, and customer payments ultimately determine profit quality.
If the 1-hour chart holds above 227.54 and breaks through the near-term high with volume, I will raise my confidence in the realization of expectations; if it falls below the low, or if revenue growth is accompanied by pressure from accounts receivable and capital expenditures, then beware that valuation may be running ahead of cash flow.🔷 El Salvador denies abandoning $BTC
• Bloomberg: El Salvador is abandoning BTC in favor of stablecoins
• ONBTC: this is fake
• Sivar platform by Modveon on Base for stablecoins
• Modveon: betting on stablecoins for transfers but will continue accumulating BTC
• ONBTC reserve: 7,790 BTC (~$652M) — 5th place
• 2025: IMF demanded to stop mining and accumulation
🧠 El Salvador denies Bloomberg. The 7,790 BTC reserve remains. But the focus is on stablecoins for transfers
❓ Evolution or hidden abandonment?👇$BTC $ETH Who would have thought, holding the same bullish logic, opening long positions simultaneously on BTC and ETH, yet the market directly plays out a tale of two extremes. The preference of capital really never distributes evenly.
BTC perpetual | Full position 50X long
Entry at 83346.347, floating profit +354.01U, return rate +21.23%
ETH perpetual | Full position 50X long
Entry at 2705.49, floating loss -88.49U, return rate -16.35%
BTC steadily climbs higher to take profits, while ETH weakens alone and gets trapped.
Old perception shattered: don’t assume that when BTC rallies, ETH will definitely follow.
In the current market, even the same direction can diverge; choosing the right coin is far more critical than just choosing the right direction. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Today is National Day 🇨🇳 Wishing everyone a peaceful holiday — and may everyone's trading screens stay green 📈📈📈 A few days ago, I finally closed my $ZEC position. Life has been busy lately, so I haven't rushed into any new trades. When I'm not trading, I like to review my previous mistakes. The biggest question lately: Why do I keep holding losing trades without having a clear exit plan? I've repeated this cycle several times. I cut the position, then the market reverses shortly afterward.Citibank just raised BTC to $113,000, but large funds have been continuously selling around $84,000. I actually want to watch this battle more closely.
Today, BTC shows two completely opposite signals.
On one hand, Citibank raised BTC's 12-month target directly from $82,000 to $113,000.
On the other hand, OKX order book has been showing large sell orders continuously.
Around $83,500–$83,900, there have been multiple large sell orders today, some tens of thousands and even exceeding $1.5 million.
So I won’t just chase BTC because institutions suddenly turn bullish.
I want to see if these sell orders can actually push the price down.
My current plan:
Focus on observing support around $83,500–$84,000.
As long as this area holds and BTC climbs back above $84,500, I remain bullish.
First target is $85,500–$86,000.
If $86,000 breaks out with volume, then look toward around $87,500.
But if $83,300 breaks down effectively and the rebound fails to recover, this short-term bullish plan is canceled.
Observe $83,500–$84,000
Confirm strength at $84,500
First target $85,500–$86,000
Second target $87,500
Invalid if $83,300 breaks
Institutions targeting $113,000 is certainly eye-catching.
But for me, the only truly useful question tonight is:
After million-dollar sell orders keep hitting the market, is there still anyone willing to buy around $84,000?
If these sell orders can’t push the price down, that’s the real signal bulls should pay attention to.
$BTC DogeOS public beta launched, but DOGE dropped about 3% to a low of around 0.0935, so I won't chase for now.
Noticed: OKX current price is about 0.0945, 24h high about 0.0982, low about 0.0935, down about −3.2% from open, volume is still there, but the buying pressure hasn't pushed the price back up, the positive news got hit first.
CoinDesk wrote today that DogeOS has opened an Ethereum-compatible public testnet, allowing developers to use test DOGE for trading, lending, and stablecoin applications.
However, no date has been given for the mainnet launch yet; early stages still rely on selected operators and a security committee, and miners' actual validation is still stuck on the unimplemented Core upgrade proposal.
Also, Bitwise Dogecoin ETF's last trading day is set for 10/14; the previous Dogechain once surged past millions in TVL, but now on-chain DeFi is almost empty, showing that just having a story isn't enough.
I think the narrative adds value for the long-term story, but since the price hasn't followed and the launch timeline is still blank, don't aggressively chase the short-term positive news; first see if the price acknowledges it.
If it fails, watch for a break below about 0.0935 to continue down, or wait for a candle to stand back above about 0.0982 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for the mainnet timeline before watching, or do you think the testnet is enough catalyst to buy directly?
$DOGE $BTC $PEPE
#InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed, SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsBecomeNextFocus #USTreasuryYieldsHitNewHighsFrequently, LongTermRatePressureNotEasedGRASS short-selling strategy this round
After a surge, the price was directly smashed down, showing a clear surge and breakdown pattern on the 5-minute chart. The previous high of 0.7272 has become a strong short-term resistance, with support around 0.6742 below. The lowest hit was 0.6712, indicating a rapid exhaustion of short-term bullish momentum.
Short entry logic
Price rebounds touching the 0.70-0.71 resistance zone is the short-selling battle position, which is the previous surge and pullback dense trading area. There are many trapped positions here, making it difficult for the rebound to break through at once. This is a resistance test for shorting. Do not chase a fully fallen market; entering short after the drop is over has a poor risk-reward ratio. Wait for the rebound to retest resistance before entering.
Stop loss setting
Place the stop loss above 0.7272, which is the high point of this rebound. Once the price stands above this level again, it means the short logic has failed, and the market will return upward. You must exit and not hold on stubbornly.
Take profit target
The first target is the nearby support around 0.6742, where you can reduce most of your position to lock in profits. If the support is directly broken downward, the remaining position can continue to look for further downside extension.
This coin’s AI-related hype is extremely volatile, with frequent spikes. If the BTC market suddenly strengthens, it will drive altcoins to rebound collectively, easily triggering short stop losses. Avoid heavy positions. The Martingale adding mode is very risky; once the market reverses upward, continuous adding will quickly amplify losses. Strictly control the maximum adding limit.
$GRASS #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Are you still alive today?
Let's talk about how to survive in the ruthless crypto world.
Do you want to get rich overnight? If you have such thoughts in the crypto world, then congratulations, you are already out.
In 2024, on another account of mine, I dreamed of getting rich overnight, maxing out all high leverage, fantasizing about turning 1,000 into 10,000, and 10,000 into 100,000. Pure gambling. I didn't even go to my day job for a week, and ended up losing two years' hard-earned money, 150,000 RMB, in that week. Since then, I started a cooling-off period.
After continuous exploration, I summarized the following points:
1: Do not go all in, absolutely never put your entire position in. Even if you know the direction is right, there is no absolute certainty in crypto. As long as you dare to go all in, the market makers dare to liquidate you.
2: Patience. Once you open a position, you must be patient. Never expect to make money immediately after buying. Fluctuations up and down are normal. If there are no fluctuations, be cautious. So once you open a trade, patiently wait.
3: Discipline. You must set stop-loss and take-profit targets for yourself and strictly follow them. Once daily targets are reached, stop trading. Whether it's stop-loss or take-profit, you must strictly execute.
4: Cut losses to survive. When you know the direction is wrong, you must be willing to cut losses. If you don't cut losses when you're wrong, liquidation may be waiting for you. So you must have the courage to cut losses to survive.
5: Cooling-off period. Give yourself one day a week as a cooling-off day. On this day, do not open any positions, not even open the trading software. Without a cooling-off period, your brain will get overheated and you won't be able to think calmly, leading to mistakes.
All of the above are lessons learned from my painful experience.
Now my goal is to open ten trades a day, with 5u take-profit and 50u stop-loss per trade. If one trade hits stop-loss, I will not trade for the rest of the day. $SOL The SOL market is very weak right now, it feels like a drop could happen at any moment.
It has tried to break 120 several times but can't get through; every time it just goes up, it quickly loses momentum, and the selling pressure is strong.
The main support to watch below is at 115; as long as it breaks this, a downtrend will form.
Below that, you can see the 110-108 area.
$BTC Bitcoin has also been fluctuating all day. It made a move up to 84300 today but couldn't hold.
It is still in a range-bound state with no clear trend, mainly between the 83000-82500 range below.
Only a breakout of this key level could lead to a trend forming. $LIT ZEC 20x Short Grid, a Bloody Lesson｜Shorting 20x Leverage Requires 20x Capital and Respect
Sharing my ZEC perpetual short grid strategy.
Running for 41 days, 20x leverage shorting, preset price range 550–1100.
Within the range, it oscillated back and forth, the grid executed 1016 arbitrage trades, and the grid profit earned 57.89 USDT.
But the market broke through the upper limit directly, rallying all the way to 1397.
The grid mechanism keeps adding short positions as the price rises, unmatched floating losses directly devour all profits, total return -1118.45%.
Even though the grid keeps taking small profits during oscillations, once a strong one-sided rally comes, all profits instantly vanish, and the principal suffers heavy losses.
I used to misunderstand short grid trading: I thought as long as I was bearish long-term and set the range properly, I could steadily harvest profits.
I overlooked the harshest fact: the premise for grid profit is that the price stays within the range. Once a one-sided trend breaks out, the grid will keep adding positions against the trend, accelerating losses.
The core problem was my unwillingness to admit mistakes.
When the price broke the grid’s upper limit, the trend had completely deviated from my expectation, but I didn’t immediately shut down the strategy or stop loss and exit.
I kept fantasizing that the price would fall back into the preset range, stubbornly holding through the one-sided rally.
A deep insight:
Shorting with 20x leverage requires matching 20x respect.
Just because the account has margin doesn’t mean you can withstand unlimited one-sided moves.
Leverage amplifies your small profits during oscillations, but one-sided adverse moves will multiply and devour your principal. The first time I heard about virtual currency,
I thought it was similar to game coins.
Later, a friend pulled me into a group chat.
Every day, I saw them shouting about rises and falls.
I got itchy hands and opened an account myself.
The first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, I stared at the screen in a daze.
If it rose a bit, I wanted to sell.
If it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
I started holding $ETH later on.
I held it for a long time not because I understood it,
but because I was too lazy to mess around.
I also chased $SOL in between,
but ended up buying at the peak.
During that time, I couldn't even eat well.
Looking back now, it was really unnecessary.
I didn't make much money,
but I learned a lot of lessons.
Don't borrow money to play.
Don't throw your living expenses into it.
Just listen to others' trading calls,
but when you really act, you have to take responsibility yourself.
The market is like this:
The more impatient you are, the more it goes against you.
Now I just play with a small position.
If I earn, I treat myself to a chicken leg.
If I lose, I consider it tuition.
Being able to sleep well is better than anything.
This circle has many opportunities and many traps.
Survive first, then talk about other things #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Big Brother Maji's portfolio has been updated again, with an exposure reaching 150 million USD, and three orders have rarely all turned positive together. Compared to a few days ago, the situation has clearly improved. $BTC is fully leveraged 40x with 369 coins, holding more than last time. Entry price at 83,799.60, unrealized profit +53,100 USD, liquidation price 70,930.78, the cushion is thick enough, the role as ballast stone remains unchanged. Maintaining such a safe distance with 40x leveraIf DOGE can't reclaim $0.0954, there's little reason to chase the current bounce. A break of $0.09347 would put
On the upside, I wouldn't consider the spike repaired until DOGE can reclaim $0.0961 and eventually challenge $0.09816 with expanding volume.
Given the shrinking volume, patience is more useful here than predicting the next candle. The market needs to show whether $0.09347 is actually defended or merely holding.#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb