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This kind of shitcoin, I don't know if you are shorting it or not, but I am shorting it.
It has none of value, concept, or ideology; shorting it is no problem at all.
Look at the $UNI trend, dropping all the way from 10.95, the rebound can't even hold above 9.2, the moving averages are pressing it down tightly, and volume is shrinking day by day.
This is not a shakeout; this means no one is catching the dip.
A DeFi token with no real income support, relying solely on narrative to prop up its market cap; once the hype dies down, it will crash faster than anyone else.
I entered the short at 9.285, now it's 8.843, floating profit 14%.
I'm not in a hurry to exit because once this downtrend forms, it won't end easily.
A rebound is an opportunity to add to the position, not to run for your life.
$BTC
$ETH
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Bitcoin's volatility today is insanely wild, with heavy losses on both sides 🪙
After PCE dropped to a 6-month low, Bitcoin surged $1700, liquidating $60 million in short positions within just 15 minutes
Then BTC plunged $2200 to $83,800 within 60 minutes, liquidating $56 million in long positions
Bitcoin's monthly candle closes today, setting the stage for an intense battle between bulls and bears #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Core is taking another step towards decentralization.
Since 2023, validators operated by the DAO have helped maintain continuous block production, and with the addition of independent operators, the network has been strengthened. These validators have collectively supported years of uninterrupted block production.
In the coming months, the DAO will implement its long-term plan to gradually transfer the remaining block production roles to independent validators, based on the work these operators have already done to keep Core running.
This transition marks a new chapter for Core, driven by independent operators.
Thanks to every validator and Coretoshi for their contributions to advancing Core.*Updated - $BTC This structure could get ugly fast* BTC $83,752 now — holding MA20 but losing momentum. If this weakness continues into weekly close and $88k was local top, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive Head & Shoulders develop over next few weeks. Left shoulder: late August $86k Head: $88-89k September top Right shoulder building now: $84.5k → $83k breakdown would confirm. Neckline around $83,000 — exactly where we are. Break + close below $83k opens $81.5k → $80k → $77k measured movBitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because there is no central recipient.
A Ponzi scheme requires someone to run away with the money, but it can't even find a person. $BTC In the past 7 days, BTC open interest contracts have decreased by 49,000, marking the largest weekly contraction since October 2025, yet no large-scale forced liquidations occurred. This indicates that leveraged funds are actively withdrawing rather than being wiped out by the market. With low volatility and declining funding rates, the bulls seem more like they are taking profits, and the market may be undergoing chip rotation.
Institutions are positioning contrarily: BlackRock withdrew 1,150 BTC from Coinbase Prime, while Strategy increased holdings by 1,666 BTC at an average price of $85,700. Contracts are cooling down, spot accumulation is happening; who is exiting and who is entering is more critical than the price.
Regarding price levels, $82,500 serves as short-term support, with a break possibly testing the $80,000 mark; $85,000 forms resistance above. Going forward, closely watch whether open interest can stop falling above $82,500. If contract reduction slows and price holds support, the rotation may be nearing its end; if contracts continue to decline and price breaks support, the leveraged exit narrative needs to be reconsidered.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Many people only know that Sun Yuchen made his fortune through TRON, but in fact, his real first pot of gold came from XRP. At the end of 2013, he joined Ripple Labs as the first employee in the Greater China region, officially holding the title of Chief Representative for China, and his daily job was promoting XRP to banks and payment institutions.
During those years, he accumulated his first substantial capital and built crucial connections that would later prove vital. By 2017, when Ethereum became popular, he jumped in directly: copying ETH's code to create TRX, telling stories with models on stage, while quietly selling off during his own pump. When questioned, he claimed it was just moving wallets. When the coin price peaked, he still shouted that everything was just beginning, advising retail investors to hold on, but those who chased the highs were met with a crash.
Even now, some newcomers still believe this narrative, but the outcome is very likely to be no different.
$XRP🚨 $157M IN EXPOSURE — BIG BROTHER MAJI FACES HEAVY PRESSURE.
Big Brother Maji’s latest positions are taking a serious hit, with his BTC, ETH, and HYPE longs now showing notable floating losses. Total exposure is estimated at around $157M.
The key question: how much longer can this position hold before the pressure intensifies? 👀
🔸 $BTC: 455 BTC
⚡ 40x leverage
🎯 Entry: $83,748
📉 Floating loss: ~$316.8K
💥 Liquidation: $77,184.
#DailyOrbit #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
Can the super cycle of the storage industry really be perpetual?
Micron's latest earnings report is quite impressive, with Q4 revenue at $54.229 billion and next quarter guidance raised directly to $61.5 billion, with quarterly EPS reaching $38.15 $MU
The company also secured 26 long-term contracts locking in $150 billion in orders, asserting that supply-demand shortages in 2027 and 2028 will be more severe than this year.
There are three variables worth watching:
First, customer resilience
Micron locks in short-term profits through long-term contracts, but the premise for tech giants to aggressively underwrite storage costs is that end-user AI can continue to monetize. If downstream ROI falls short of expectations, this buyer-pay model could shut down at any time.
Second, capital expenditure erosion
Micron's future capital expenditure will exceed $50 billion. The huge depreciation costs from capacity expansion will make it very difficult to fulfill promises of gross margin recovery if price increases slow down.
Third, the cycle law never disappears
Currently, HBM and high-end DRAM are extremely tight, but after Samsung and SK Hynix release new capacity, the supply-demand balance may tip faster than expected $SKHY
Micron's short-term cash flow is still expected to be unbeatable, and the stock price remains high. But the market focus has shifted from how good the performance is to how long the peak can hold. The massive capital expenditure and uncertainty of end-user AI monetization will be the biggest sources of future volatility.
DYOR Latest Position Adjustment Released｜Total holdings shrunk to 149 million, after Big Brother Maji quietly reduced positions, is the pattern still intact?
Compared to the previous round, there are obvious changes in positions: overall exposure contracted from 157 million to 149 million, with BTC, ETH, and HYPE all simultaneously reduced; the account finally shows one position turning green, but most positions are still enduring unrealized losses.
Breaking down the details of the three core positions:
- BTC｜393 coins · 40X full position
Compared to before, 62 coins were reduced, cost raised to 83795.20, current unrealized loss -143,800 U; liquidation price lowered to 71679.67.
Actively reducing positions directly lowers total risk weight, but still retains 40x high leverage, indicating no complete abandonment of BTC's bullish elasticity, just an early withdrawal of part of the front line.
- ETH｜35,000 coins · 25X full position
After a slight reduction, it became the only profitable position in the entire account, +360,300 U.
This is now the safety pillar of the entire position; 25x leverage is relatively restrained, liquidation at 2552.29, holding here means the account still has enough room to maneuver, making it the most stable part of this round's layout.
- HYPE｜191,000 coins · 10X full position
Also chose to reduce positions, unrealized loss narrowed to -248,700 U; cost 90.31, liquidation 63.95.
The improved loss is not due to a strong market rebound, but a buffer gained by cutting some chips; there is still no clear signal of a short-term counterattack.On October 1st, I wish my great motherland peace and prosperity, with a wealthy people and a strong nation!
Last year, gold prices rose more than 40 yuan/gram in 8 days during National Day; such a market is rare and cannot be expected to repeat this year.
Currently, gold prices are hovering around 4100–4200. Only if it can firmly hold 4250–4320 USD can it strengthen in the short term! Without a short-term trend, it will just sweep up and down.
Core PCE cooled in August, and the October rate hike expectation was shattered. But oil prices are not falling, so there may still be a rate hike in December. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the next key checkpoint.
October 28th’s rate decision is only 6 days before the midterm elections, so another rate hike would be awkward. Most likely, they will hold steady—which is not a big positive for gold, but at least not negative.
Gold is essentially money. Fiat currency can be printed, the US dollar can be suppressed, but not in the long term. Since 1971, gold has risen from 35 USD to this year's high of 5600, a 157-fold increase. When Walsh took office and hawkish expectations hit, the price was smashed from 5600 to 4099, leaving many trapped at the bottom.
Long-term bullish, short-term cautious. High leverage is like dynamite; physical gold plus low-leverage dollar-cost averaging is the way to keep up with time.
The 4120-3950 range has consolidated for more than 40 days before,
which is a good support level to set up long-term longs.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $BTC $ETH *Updated - BTC Drop, Can't Sleep:* BTC dropped again — now $83,342, really can't sleep. My $BTC long losing again. Luckily not near liquidation yet, so holding for now. Checked 1H & 4H liquidation heatmaps — longs getting rekt everywhere. In last 12H, long liq $87k-$85k cluster is dense, short liq above $87,687 thin. Sigh... It's October now. Looked at data: Q4 2023: +56.9% Q4 2024: +47.7% Q4 2025: -23.1% History gives hope, but also slaps. I'm still long-biased, but batch entries only, leverage$HYPE HYPE has surged nearly 6% to ~$91.4 and is now pressing the $91.5 resistance after reclaiming the $85 area. But the next 9.92M HYPE unlock (~$857M) is scheduled for Oct. 6, while OI remains elevated around $2.6B. With price approaching the $97.98 ATH, the risk/reward favors fading resistance unless $92 breaks decisively.
Short setup.
Entry: $91.5 - $93
TP: $89 - $86 - $83 - $79
SL: $96.2The Ethereum whale that has been dormant for 9 years just moved 356 million
In 2015, Ethereum ICO.
Someone subscribed to $ETH at a price of 0.31 USD.
Today, ETH is around 2670 USD. This position has yielded 8600 times the return.
For 9 years, he only did one thing: nothing
From 2015 until now, this whale has hardly moved the ETH in his hands.
The last time he made a single transfer over 100 million was 4 years ago.
Just now, he moved.
6 hours ago, 133,298 ETH, worth 356 million USD, was transferred to a brand new address.
This is one of his biggest moves in 9 years.
So the question is, do you think he’s simply changing wallets or preparing to make a move? After spending a long time in the crypto circle, you'll admit an iron rule:
The more complex the strategy, the faster you die.
The more you like to research, the more likely you are to research your account into oblivion.
Many retail investors swap several coins and multiple systems a day, calling it strategy optimization, but in reality, they're accelerating losses. Clumsy and restless, yet they think they're evolving.
After years of pitfalls, I only kept one most stable model:
Single coin, single direction, swing cycle.
Focus on one coin, only follow the trend, squeeze every bit of the trend dry. Because it's stable enough, clear enough, and most importantly, not easily swayed by emotions.
1. Only trade mainstream: choose between BTC and ETH
Don't jump from AI today, MEME tomorrow, to Dogecoin the day after. You're not trading; you're binge-watching a drama. Focus on one target, and your timing will get more accurate.
2. Only follow the trend: go long when it rises, short when it falls
Don't bottom-fish, guess tops, or bet on reversals. When the market gives a direction, follow it; when it doesn't, wait. Don't use your little cleverness to challenge the trend; the trend punishes disobedience.
3. Position splitting: structure of small losses and big gains
Light positions at low points, this is your ticket in
Add positions at key points, this is your certainty
Take profits in batches with space, this is your profit
Strict stop-loss on losses, this is your life
Maximize profits on gains, this is your money $BTC $ETH 普天同庆的好日子，昨晚一炮命中最屌的那个HYPE，国庆的开心骚哥帮你买单了！ 恭祝我伟大的祖国生日快乐，民富国强，希望各位老铁的爸妈老婆老公孩子走在小康的路上一路不回头！ XAU经过昨晚冲高4226后，第一波T顺利完成，大部分人均价已降至4250一线，今日日内再给4120-4150区间，越低越好，前低放量破就损，还可以再T1次； XAG给低于60.5的机会越低随便1%怼进去； BTC支阻位87550/85150/78425/75475 此刻居于85150-78425大区间，短线1h/2h/4h多空平衡，5min/15min有安营扎寨筑底需求，昨晚超短顺势摸至85632，未有破位下测试，暂时多级别周期多头略强； ETH支阻位2750//2525/2400/2225/2100 思路和大饼一致！ MU美光业绩全面超预期，市场虽无大型下插针，但是亦无资本追捧，整体是中规中矩，甚至还有利好落地资金略微出逃迹象，所以碰到这种事，你看看就行，不要总想着一条消息可以让您改变资本阶级，不要拿你老A的思维去看老美！ 操作建议不构成投资依据：这个假期市场如给机会将是布局的绝佳时机，继续看好10月底及11月的An ancient whale bought ETH at $0.31 and moved 130,000 coins today.
A participant in the 2015 Ethereum ICO subscribed to 560,000 ETH at a cost of $0.31 each.
Today, he transferred 133,298 of them to a new address, worth $356 million. This is the first time in 4 years he has made a single transfer worth over a hundred million.
Four years ago, when he last made a large move, ETH was still below $1,000. This time, ETH was around $2,700. But unlike many whales in the past, this money didn’t go to an exchange, just to another wallet.
Why would someone who has held for 11 years at almost zero cost suddenly move their position?
He doesn’t need to sell; these 130,000 coins are pocket change to him, and he still holds over 400,000. But choosing to move at this point at least shows he is reorganizing his assets. It could be splitting wallets, preparing for future operations, or just a security adjustment. No one knows what his next move will be.
But one thing is certain: someone who bought at $0.31 and has held for 11 years, every move he makes is worth a second look. He doesn’t watch K-lines or macro trends, only the timing he feels is right.
Do you think he is preparing to sell, or just moving to a different place?
$BTC $ETH *Updated - After Waking Up, Still Watching:* $AKE is crazy again — $0.03344 now, candles shooting like they're on fire. I'm a bear by nature, but facing this wild run, my hand hovers over keyboard, not daring to press. It's not I didn't judge, it's I know it doesn't play by logic. Fine to miss this money. Not shorting $AKE doesn't mean giving up. I'm shifting focus to $SOON — $0.3925. Logic simple: the more it pumps, the more I short. Not out of spite, waiting for that loose pin after sentiment #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC After an epic bull market first half, Bitcoin currently stands at a very delicate technical crossroads. By linking two core indicators—volatility (Garman-Klass) and derivatives open interest—a clear market picture emerges: prices remain firm at high levels, but volatility continues to contract, while contract open interest has dropped to a six-month low. This "low volatility + low open interest" resonance often signals that a sharp market shift is brewing. 1. Volatility contraction: "Accumulation" during high-level sideways movement From the Garman-Klass realized volatility chart, Bitcoin has seen a significant reduction in extreme event frequency after approaching historical highs, entering a "time for space" consolidation phase. The dense yellow "low volatility" markers in the chart indicate that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears at high levels is calming down. Typically, sustained volatility contraction is a precursor to a market shift. The current price holding firm at high levels shows resilience in the spot underlying buy-side; meanwhile, shrinking volatility means positions are stabilizing, and the market is digesting previous gains while awaiting new macro catalysts. 2. New low in open interest: the deep game of "price up, open interest down" Synchronous with volatility contraction is the "price up, open interest down" divergence revealed by Glassnode data. Bitcoin price rebounded to $80K+ highs since late September, but BTC-denominated contract open interest has steadily declined, reaching the lowest point since March (breaking below 4This is the RSI of $BTC on the 6-hour timeframe. You see, it’s converging around the 50 average level. That means there’s a 50% chance of going up and a 50% chance of going down. Trading right here could lead to liquidation or hitting stop-loss due to long candle wicks. Therefore:
1. Wait to see which direction the price will break out.
2. Plan to buy or sell far away at the two zones of support and resistance, which are 81k and 87k respectively.After the US August PCE data came in below expectations, Bitcoin briefly surged to $85,598, making it seem like it was about to break through. However, it quickly fell back to around $83,600. As of 8:15 AM, it was quoted at $83,680, down slightly by 0.13% over 24 hours.
Why the rise and fall? The core contradiction remains macroeconomic. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 5.28%, and the high long-term interest rates directly suppress risk asset valuations. Although PCE has cooled down, the core PCE year-on-year is still 3.0%, far from the Fed's 2% target, and the expectation of rate cuts is not so certain.
There is also an interesting contrast in the capital side: retail investors are watching, while whales and institutions are accelerating accumulation. In the past 10 days, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC. Strategy also spent $142.7 million to add 1,665 BTC. ETF weekly inflows reached $2.4 billion, the highest since last October.
My personal judgment: in the short term, expect oscillation in the $82,600–$85,600 range, with $85,599 as the recent key resistance level. But with whales accumulating so aggressively, once ETF funds continue to flow in and circulating supply tightens, a breakout may be closer than everyone thinks. Do not chase the highs; wait for the signal. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $CT premium is too high!! Brothers going long must set stop losses! Because it has no real value at all! There are no actual positive factors; it's all the personal sentiment of the manipulators pumping the price! Of course, brothers going short must keep their positions small! Don't be like me! #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH rebound encounters selling pressure above, what will Ethereum rely on for the next breakthrough?
OKX spot 24-hour range is about 2,658—2,739, with a turnover of about 313 million USDT, and the current price is in the middle of the range. Price recovery requires continuous support from spot buying; if it is only driven by contract leverage, it is more likely to fall back after a surge. Network activity and fee rebound are the key to whether mid-term demand can improve.
If the 1-hour chart shows volume and stabilizes above 2,739 and holds after a pullback, I will increase my judgment for continued upward movement; if it falls below 2,658 and the rebound volume shrinks, then be cautious of the range shifting downward first. Seeing that Anthropic signed an $84.5 billion computing power agreement with SpaceX, the group chat started hyping that the AI industry chain is about to take off again.
To look on the bright side, an order of this scale for computing power indicates that the demand for large AI models is genuinely strong, not just relying on financing stories as before. The entire computing power industry chain, from chips to servers, indeed has solid demand support.
But on the flip side, these AI companies are signing long-term orders worth hundreds of billions to trillions, and no one can be sure how much will actually be fulfilled according to the contracts. If the commercialization of large models falls behind, these huge contracts might just remain on paper, which may not be a real positive for related AI concept coins.
My personal view is that the long-term logic for AI is sound, but the market immediately pumping prices upon seeing news of hundreds of billions somewhat prematurely prices in expectations for several years ahead.
Everyone should pay close attention to the actual delivery and implementation of these computing power orders later on, and not just rush in based on contract amounts. What do you think about these trillion-level long-term computing power orders? Are they solid demand for the AI industry chain, or are expectations being overdrawn prematurely? Let's chat in the comments.
$BTC
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 SOL The lowest point of this bear market cycle is at 60, and the second peak of the previous bull market double top was 253.49. Calculating with a 0.382 retracement, 60 + (253.49 - 60) * 0.382 is approximately 133.9, meaning the range from 133 to 134 is the first major Fibonacci level and currently the first relatively strong resistance.
Once it can stabilize above this level and break through recently, the upward space will open layer by layer, the price base will gradually rise, and the short-term volatility rhythm will also increase, naturally making the profit potential more obvious. There's no need to rush near the resistance level; it's not too late to follow after it stabilizes and confirms.
$SOL#AnthropicSpaceX$84.5B Anthropic's IPO story may be turning into a race between revenue and compute costs 👀
Up to $84.5B in SpaceX-related agreements sounds huge, but the bigger number is $518B in long-term infrastructure commitments.
What caught my attention is the 90-day exit option on many deals. That flexibility matters when 2025 revenue was just $4.59B.
AI growth needs compute. But if infrastructure spending keeps outrunning revenue, scale itself could become the biggest risk.$BTC
Viewpoint of this ID
BTC has been building a consolidation zone since the low of 82563, surged to 85649.95, then pulled back, returning to the consolidation range, representing a shakeout and rest after consolidation expansion. The one-time volume from the impulse rally has been released; bulls need to accumulate strength again.
Entry: Wait for a minor-level pullback to form a bullish divergence + bottom fractal, then buy near the consolidation support (ZD); if volume breaks through the consolidation resistance (ZG), wait for a retest without breaking below ZG before attempting a third buy.
Stop loss: Place defense below the consolidation support (ZD); breaking below ZD invalidates the current-level consolidation structure.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box marks the consolidation at this level, with ZG≈84000 and ZD≈83000. Starting from 82563, multiple minor-level consolidations formed the consolidation zone. Then a surge created a high at 85649.95, but no new consolidation was formed; the price pulled back into the consolidation, forming an expanded consolidation. The key bottom line is 82563; to the upside, the price needs to hold above ZG to have a chance to challenge previous highs.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
At the surge to 85649.95, volume spiked instantly, indicating concentrated short-term demand. However, volume quickly faded after the rally, unable to sustain new highs, followed by a long bearish candle and a pullback, with supply entering—this is a classic sign of a rally stalling at highs. During the pullback, volume is less than the peak during the rally, with no panic selling, indicating a shakeout phase. Currently, bulls and bears are balanced within the consolidation, with no clear accumulation or distribution signals.
Key Points to Watch
The market is oscillating within the consolidation box, with 85649.95 as strong resistance. Only trade waves within the consolidation; do not chase rebounds. Focus on waiting for minor-level bullish divergence signals. [Fed Hawkish Signals Resurface]
🚨 Latest news: Fed officials signal the possibility of another rate hike in 2026.
Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.30% at one point, with the high interest rate environment continuing to suppress risk assets.
📉 For BTC/ETH/SOL: short-term bearish
🟢 ETF funds remain supportive
Key focus: US employment data on Friday.
In short: High interest rate pressure persists; whether ETF buying can withstand macro pressure will determine the short-term direction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 10.1 BTC Today Silk Road
$BTC rebound 842-846 to enter short positions accordingly, target 851, first target 833, second target 824
Pullback near 830 to stabilize, lightly buy calls to test, target 826, target 838
BTC surged to 85632 yesterday then faced pressure and fell back, closing with a long upper shadow, call positions lost momentum after attack. Overall biased towards a downward consolidation, the main trend favors short positions, but short-term pullbacks to support will have corrective rebounds, do not blindly short.
Do not blindly chase shorts during the decline, patiently wait for the rebound to the resistance zone before entering accordingly.
842-846 is today's key resistance; if rebound meets resistance, enter short positions; once volume breaks above 85632, resistance is broken, abandon short position strategy immediately.
There is short-term support near 830; if pullback stops falling and stabilizes, lightly buy calls to test. Short-term call positions are counter-trend rebounds, only capture small waves, quick in and out.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $SOON Typical "epic short squeeze" rally! A 160% surge in 7 days. Although extremely overbought in the short term, the spot main force is aggressively accumulating in the long cycle, which is fundamentally different from a pure zeroing scenario. Short-term observation is advised; caution is wise, everyone.
RSI has long been severely overbought. The strong resistance above is at $0.55, and short-term support lies between $0.45-$0.48.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are missing out/shorting, while large holders are moderate (extreme contrast).
OKX retail long-short ratio is only 0.66 (extremely bearish or missing out), Binance retail is 0.9497 (balanced).
Large holder count long-short ratio is 0.8119, and large holder position long-short ratio is 1.0757.
Large holders are biased long but not extremely fervent.
Fundamentals (hardcore support):
Backed by top institutions including the Chairman of the Solana Foundation, co-founder of Solana Labs, and head of Coinbase Ventures.
The project plans to burn 3% of tokens (30 million) and has locked 35.97 million SOON.
Although there was a negative unlock of 30 million tokens previously, now the funds have chosen a direction with a violent surge.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Closed position, 10x full position. After holding for about 18 days, captured approximately a 4.2% increase in coin price. With 10x leverage, the realized return reached +37.13%, pocketing 58 ETH. The maximum position size was 1,953 ETH, but the closed amount was 1,562 ETH, indicating a strategy of taking profits in batches.
The BTC trade was even more aggressive: opened long at 82,160, closed at 83,582 on 9/30, held for 9 days with only a 1.7% price increase, amplified 10x to +16.13%, pocketing 262,417 U; full position of 198 BTC, exited immediately after closing. SOL opened long at 113.16 on 9/18, closed at 114.67 on 9/24, 6 days with minimal volatility, leveraged 10x on a position of over 100,000 coins to earn +154,052 U. The key is not perfect timing, but choosing mainstream coins, giving time, and exiting partially or fully after profits, avoiding turning unrealized gains into gambling.
Currently, BTC is consolidating between 82k-84k, ETH between 2.6k-2.7k, SOL faces resistance at 117-122, with macro PCE/US bonds still pressuring. Don’t get carried away by these cases. Leverage should only be based on how much you can afford to lose; liquidation distance is always the top priority. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
The figure of 5.6% made me open my mortgage calculator again.
On September 29, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.6%, the highest since 2002. I stared at the screen for a long time, and my first reaction wasn’t the bond market, but the mortgage.
With long-term rates moving like this, it means the market is saying: money won’t be cheap for decades to come.
Strangely, short-term expectations have cooled down. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in October dropped from nearly 70% to about 50%. On one side, short-term rate hike expectations are falling; on the other, long-term yields are soaring to new highs—this kind of divergence itself is unsettling.
What concerns me more is another piece of data: by the end of 2025, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash US Treasuries, accounting for 7% of tradable US Treasuries, a historic high. Many of these are highly leveraged basis trades.
To translate: there’s too much borrowed money piled up in the bond market. It’s fine as long as yields keep rising, but once volatility amplifies, these positions will be forced to liquidate, turning into a stampede. Selling pressure will surge, liquidity will dry up, and eventually, the impact won’t be limited to the bond market.
I’m not a hedge fund manager, just an ordinary investor. But I roughly understand one thing: 5.6% is not just a number; it’s a string pulled tighter and tighter. The other end of the string is connected to mortgages, corporate financing, stock valuations, and the assets in my account.
Before closing the market software, I glanced again at that yield curve. It’s steep, so steep it makes you uneasy.Woke up already stuck, hope to get unstuck.
These past two days I've been playing $SOON, mostly shorting, but I made some profit because the dog whales dumped a few times, and I got out.
Yesterday I saw it surge from 0.4 at night to 0.56, I couldn't help but go long, but woke up to see it at 0.49. I added a position this morning, now it's 0.5, hope my luck isn't this bad—every time I go long it dumps. Gotta believe in the power of belief, hope it pumps all day today.
Then yesterday I got into a new coin called $CT, it also dumped first then pumped. Damn, I got in halfway and got stuck opening a short, luckily I got out fast. Today it pumped again. These new coins these days all act the same: dump first, pump up, then dump hard again.
Right now I played AKE yesterday, shorted a bit, made 5u profit, this counts as a relatively successful short.
As for $ZEC, I want to go long but also don't want to. At this price, damn, I've been cut multiple times, up and down, I'm scared and might stop playing.
U coin hasn't gone above 0.18 for two weeks now, holding it for the second week. Forget it, don't want to think about it.
Happy National Day, genius traders, today you can sleep in. $HYPE: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 90.40-90.80 range (near the Bollinger middle band and resistance level) and then enter short.
· The initial target is 88.80; if this level is effectively broken, then look for the previous low at 84.50; set stop loss above 91.00.
Core basis:
1. Moving average breakdown suppression: The 15-minute MA and Bollinger middle band (90.42) are sloping downward, price broke below this level and failed to rally back, establishing a short-term bearish pattern.
2. Bear trap pattern: After peaking at 91.84 and falling back, the rebound highs keep decreasing, which is a typical downtrend continuation pattern, making a direct breakout above the previous high highly unlikely.
3. Volume, price, and risk-reward ratio: The rebound shows decreasing volume, the decline shows increasing volume, and once the support at 88.87 breaks, a sell-off is likely. Using 91 as stop loss, aiming to break below 88.87 offers a very high risk-reward ratio.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million｜Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 7
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 2213 Yuan
Family, the Great Demon King's 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million battle, today I lay my cards on the table and thoroughly analyze this market wave for you!
Many have asked me why I've been so steady lately; just look at the screenshots and you'll understand.
Two empty short positions, $PONS 3.5x short, BTC 10x short, all currently in floating profit.
First, about PONS:
Entry average price 0.5532, current mark price 0.5242, already floating profit of 18.32%.
This asset surged too aggressively earlier, clearly overheated in the short term. I identified the short opportunity for profit-taking and entered. The liquidation price is pulled up to 0.7277, with a solid safety buffer. Not afraid of small rebounds or shakeouts; as long as it doesn't break the strong resistance, the short logic remains unchanged.
Now for $BTC:
Short opened at 86382.6, current price 83463.7, floating profit of 33.79%.
Failed to break previous highs, bulls lack follow-through, liquidity retreats, naturally leading to a downward retracement. I didn't chase the rally but chose to stand on the side of trend reversal. The liquidation price is pulled out beyond 320,000, almost no short-term liquidation pressure. Holding steady is the key.
From 500 to 100 million, it's not about getting rich overnight with one bet, but about seizing every opportunity, controlling position size, and maintaining safety boundaries.
In a bull market, you don't have to only go long; after sharp rises, corrections offer great shorting opportunities.
The market always harvests those chasing rallies and panicking on dips, while the Great Demon King is the one who calmly lies in wait, letting the market play out according to his script.
Next, I will continue to hold and observe:
If BTC fails to hold the 83000 support, the short space can still open; once it strongly pulls back above 86400, I will accept the loss and exit, never stubbornly holding on.
As long as PONS doesn't firmly stand above 0.55 again, I will continue to hold this short position.
Step by step, the 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million is a long road, but every step I take is clear and deliberate.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
After the market close on September 30, Micron will release its earnings report. I still hold some Micron shares, so it's not like I'm not nervous.
The company's guidance is very attractive: revenue of 50 billion ± 1 billion, EPS $31 ± 1, gross margin about 86%. The market expects a bit more—revenue between 50.8 and 50.9 billion, EPS 31.5. Last quarter was only 41.46 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of over 20%. The demand from AI data centers is indeed pushing HBM and advanced DRAM forward; HBM4 has already been shipped in large volumes to major customers, and certified samples have been sent to several companies.
But the problem is, the market already knows these stories.
I'm not an analyst, just an ordinary retail investor. I only care about three things: first, can the 86% gross margin be maintained? No matter how hot HBM is, if DRAM and NAND prices start to soften, profits will be eaten away. Second, what will the guidance say for the next quarter? If it just meets expectations, the stock price may have already run up in advance. Third, the supply and demand outlook for fiscal year 2027—that's the key to deciding whether I keep holding or sell.
Earnings numbers are about the past; guidance is about the future. If Micron only delivers a "meets expectations" report this time, the market probably won't buy it. The AI storage narrative is very attractive, but the valuation has already gotten ahead.
We'll see after the market closes. I just hope it won't be another classic scenario of "earnings beat expectations, but the stock price drops."The sideways king is back again, rising from the ashes!
Today it surged to 0.07 again, but I don't believe it can break the previous high this time; I shorted directly at 0.07.
$CAP has rebounded from around 0.05 to 0.07025, up 8.39% in 24 hours.
It looks strong, but if you look closely, the previous high of 0.07902 is pressing down right above. This time it didn't even touch the previous high, clearly the volume can't keep up.
Looking at the MACD, DIF and DEA are sticking close near the zero line, and the red bars are pitifully short, showing a serious lack of upward momentum.
SAR is at 0.05344; although the price is still above it, the daily chart shows some fatigue after continuous rallies.
Now it’s facing resistance again near 0.07. This kind of rebound can’t hold at all; it looks more like a false breakout to lure buyers.
Why am I confident to short at this position? Because the logic hasn’t changed.
First, there is a lot of trapped positions above.
Between 0.075 and 0.079, how many people got trapped last time it surged?
Every time it rebounds here, it’s ruthlessly suppressed down.
Second, macro pressure is the nemesis of altcoins.
The non-farm payroll data will be released on October 2, and there’s a rate hike meeting at the end of October, with about a 50% chance of a hike.
In a high interest rate environment, Meme coins without real value support will face a stampede once funds withdraw.
So I decisively shorted at 0.07031; now around 0.07025 you can try a light position, set stop loss above 0.075, and target first 0.06; if it breaks down, it will head to 0.05.
Today is National Day, happy National Day to everyone.
If this trade profits, I can treat myself to hotpot tonight. Let the dog whales fall!
$BTC
$ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 ETH rebounded after pulling back to $2,657 and has now climbed back near $2,680. The 24-hour trading volume is about $13.8B, and recently the high-leverage positions in the derivatives market have cooled down, easing short-term liquidation pressure. Next, focus on the $2,700–$2,740 range: 🟢 If volume breaks through and holds above $2,740, the upside potential may gradually open up 🟡 If resistance persists, watch for support near $2,650 🔴 Breaking below $2,625 indicates a clear weakening of the current bullish structure 🔥 Long Setup Entry: $2,665–$2,695 TP1: $2,735 TP2: $2,810 TP3: $2,900 TP4: $3,050 SL: $2,620 Currently, ETH seems to be consolidating just below a key resistance. Pay close attention to whether spot volume + OI + funding rates improve simultaneously. Don’t chase the price just because of a single bullish candle; waiting for breakout confirmation is more important. NFA / DYOR｜Manage position size and strictly control risk. #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSDT #Crypto #OctoberRateHikeOdds #OctoberCrypto$ARB Dear all, the current price of ARB is 0.20279.
There are a total of 344 whale accounts, with a nominal long-short ratio of 69.81%, and the short whale positions are larger in scale. 192 long whales have an average opening price of 0.216728, currently at an unrealized loss; 152 short whales have an average opening price of 0.181159, also showing unrealized losses. Large holders on both long and short sides are stuck.
After the daily chart fell from the high point, it entered a consolidation phase with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Both sides have trapped chips, making it difficult to have a clear one-sided trend in the short term.
Offensive level: 0.2140, Defensive level: 0.1910
In this double-sided squeeze situation, do not rush to bet on one side. Be patient for directional signals and keep positions conservative. Micron's numbers are out, no surge after hours.
Q4 revenue 54.23 billion, market expected 51.49 billion. Adjusted EPS $33.42, expected $31.83. Gross margin 87%, expected 86.2%. Next quarter guidance 61.5 billion, expected only 56.8 billion. Data center segment 18 billion, last quarter 11.5 billion, gross margin 90%.
The books are full. The stock price didn't continue to jump, slight fluctuation after hours.
I don't take this as a signal to open a crypto position. Orders remain, but that doesn't mean $BTC will follow tonight. Broadcom's last time also had strong books, guidance was off by two points and still got crushed first. This time there's not even a crush, indicating the term "beat expectations" has lost its value.
Did you move after hours? If yes, write the price. If not, write no movement. Replying "learned" I'll pretend I didn't see.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 83.4K is consolidating nearby, truly waiting for the closing answer. In the public market, $BTC is around 83.39K, down about 0.21% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of 83.64K and a low of 82.92K; $ETH is about 2,684, $SOL about 117.9, still relatively weak. My overall judgment is that the rebound has not yet upgraded into a trend; first watch the boundaries, not the sentiment.
I will regard a volume-increasing close above 83.6K as a short-term upward trigger, then observe whether the pullback holds; if it’s just a high spike followed by low volume, I won’t chase. The 82.9K level below is a clear invalidation point; if the close breaks below it, I will first reduce risk and wait to reassess after it recovers. For me, the key is not guessing the rise or fall, but letting volume and closing price prove the direction first.
Although the new window has long and short slogans and code signals, it lacks publicly confirmable common catalysts, so I don’t package them as opportunities. Are you more focused on the 83.6K breakout or the 82.9K support? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.$LAB OKX retail long-short ratio surged to 8.02, which is a bit too scary. Everyone is bullish, with so many trapped positions above, but the main funds probably won't give an opportunity. The overall trend continues downward.
This is a wild card and can't be judged by normal logic; a big rebound can easily occur, but the main direction is still down.
Small positions, low leverage, more margin, can hold on.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are extremely enthusiastic.
OKX retail long-short ratio surged to 8.02, Binance retail at 3.32. Retail investors are frantically bottom fishing.
For large holders: the number of large holders long-short ratio is 3.95, but the large holders' position long-short ratio is only 1.9956.
Continuing downward, testing $0.05
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $FIL Filecoin recent network-level benefits (technical/ecological aspects)
1. NV28 Fire Horse mainnet upgrade (launching May 2026)
- Smart contracts can verify storage sector status in real time, supporting automatic renewal of storage contracts and storage guarantees;
- Supports Passkey (fingerprint/face/hardware key) login, no mnemonic needed;
- Optimizes Gas fee mechanism, the fee model better aligns with Filecoin block production logic, facilitating developers to build applications.
2. Solstice economic model proposal FIP-0118 has launched on the testnet.
- Adjusts block reward distribution mechanism, part of the rewards will flow to service coordinators who attract customers, aiming to stimulate paid storage orders;
- Simplifies the process for storage providers to obtain rewards, the community hopes this will increase real paid storage demand on the network.
3. ProPGF third batch of public product funding (May 2026)
- $2 million ecosystem funding to support underlying infrastructure, Web2 object storage, and Web3 application development, expanding ecosystem construction.
4. 2026 network strategy shift: from capacity expansion to driving paid storage demand
The official focus is no longer solely on increasing storage capacity, but on promoting real paid on-chain storage orders, improving storage providers' revenue, and expanding enterprise customers.
5. Institutional data storage implementation cases
Smithsonian Institution, MIT, Internet Archive, etc.The $CORE project team issued another statement that's purely misleading. The token is highly centralized, nodes experience vulnerabilities every now and then, and despite their initial claims of 100% security, the token has dropped 400 times in value. The token was also inflated, node vulnerabilities have occurred three times already, and they privately misappropriated 300 million community tokens to repay loans. The staged node vulnerability and token inflation for selling were exposed by the community.In April 2025, Ethereum dropped to a low of 1390
Unexpectedly, by August it broke through 4900 at its highest point
Throughout the entire rally, people found it hard to understand why Ethereum could rise
Just like every bull market start, the rise seemed to have no reason
This process serves as a great case to prove
That extreme bearishness and improved expectations can accelerate the rise
At that time, Ethereum's environment was very bad; the two-stage bull market in 2024 only reached 4000 before turning bearish, and its exchange rate consistently underperformed Bitcoin, hitting a new low since 2019
Ethereum was like a rat crossing the street, everyone wanted to beat it, and those who held ETH stubbornly were called E-guards
In 2024, E-guards looked down on Solana, considering it a playground for junk coins and air coins, but Solana kept breaking historical highs, while ETH seemed like a slowly zeroing public chain coin
In April 2025, ETH fell to a despairing price of 1390, a 60% drop, while Bitcoin only dropped 30% in the same period
But what was even more unexpected was that after May 8, in the following three days, Ethereum suddenly surged with three big bullish candles straight to 2700, causing a 1 billion scale short squeeze
This is a key logic: the more the market despises ETH, the more extreme the shorting becomes, and high-leverage short positions become denserOTC Position Analysis
From now on, daily OTC analysis will be added
Address 1 holds a huge position, its movements need to be monitored
Address 3 is a liquidity pool, with decent depth
Among them, 6 are marked as Active Whale Transfer, which are whale transfer wallets.
It is understood that behind them are 1336 wallets controlling 28.2% of the chips.
Yesterday's increase was 100%, indicating that the pump party and the chips are highly concentrated
From the trend, the early stage fell back to 0.03, yesterday's increase doubled, and it has already started. BTC was pumping hard… so I shorted it. 😮💨
And yeah, my hands were still shaking when I closed both trades.
I opened: • BTC short @ 85,380 → closed @ 84,170 | 30x
• BTC short @ 85,100 → closed @ 84,250 | 20x
Both targets hit. Over 60% profit secured. 🎯
People asked me:
“BTC is going up. Why the hell are you shorting?”
Because I wasn't trying to fight the trend. I was waiting for the moment when the trend started losing strength.
#DailyOrbit Big news in the US stock market!
AI storage demand is entering a longer-term cycle of supply and demand tightness.
Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated in the earnings call that the company has currently signed 26 long-term agreements, locking in about $150 billion in orders, and believes that the storage market supply and demand situation in 2027 and 2028 may be tighter than in 2026.
This sends an important signal: AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from GPUs to the storage side.
In the past, the market focused on Nvidia and computing chips, but with the continuous expansion of AI servers, large model training, and data centers, demand for storage such as HBM high-bandwidth memory and DRAM is becoming the new bottleneck.
Market logic is changing:
First, AI is not just a chip trend but an entire infrastructure cycle.
Second, after cyclical adjustments, the storage industry's supply and demand pattern is improving.
Third, long-term order locking means leading companies maintain high confidence in future AI demand.
Personal observation: If AI capital expenditure continues to expand, storage may become an important direction for the next phase of capital rotation. However, it is important to note that high expectations also mean the market will pay more attention to order fulfillment and profit growth.
Going forward, focus on Micron's performance guidance, HBM capacity expansion, and AI industry chain capital rotation opportunities. The Japanese bond market is being sold off: within one week, foreign holdings of Japanese bonds swung back and forth by ¥3.6 trillion, with a net sell-off of ¥1.34 trillion last week, after a net purchase of ¥2.24 trillion the week before.
This intense in-and-out movement indicates that overseas funds' confidence in Japanese bonds is weakening—Japan's central bank has long kept interest rates low, but now global yields are rising, so who would want to hold low-yielding Japanese bonds?
Japanese bonds are a key part of global carry trades; once they become unstable, the impact will transmit through the capital chain to various risk assets.
From a macro perspective, Japanese bonds deserve more attention than most crypto news.Bastion Trading, which holds nearly 10% of SkyAI's shares, has called for a reshuffle of the board of this Solana treasury company, pointing out that a $5 million related-party consulting fee in the first half of the year harmed shareholder interests and demanding an independent review of related-party transactions, not ruling out legal action. The controversy centers on the transparency of treasury fund usage and board independence, and if it escalates further, it may negatively impact confidence in the governance of treasury-type projects within the ecosystem.