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5. Overall Direction Judgment
In the short term, 2450-2480 is the first line of defense; if breached, 2380-2400 will be the next battleground. The upper range of 2550-2600 forms strong resistance, with multiple attempts being pushed back.
But more important than the technical aspect is this: this round of sharp decline exposes a fundamental rift in Ethereum's value capture. L2 scaling has taken away transactions and fees, but where is ETH's value anchored? If Ethereum ultimately just becomes a "settlement layer"—important, but without narrative premium—then what justifies its valuation being tens of times higher than competitors? $ZEC $ETH $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 The early morning rotation continues to look for a breakthrough. Which of SOL, XRP, or FET can lead the way to open the second phase?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
For SOL, focus on the strength of support after high-level turnover. Continuous retests without breaking the low point and raising the structure indicate that the chips remain relatively stable. If $SOL continues to shrink volume during adjustments while active buying strengthens again, the quality of breaking through recent resistance will be higher; as long as it can maintain above after the breakout, trend funds have room to continue following up. Conversely, volume expansion with stagnant gains requires caution for profit-taking.
XRP mainly digests the pressure chips above. During repeated pressure tests, shallower pullbacks indicate strengthening buying power. If XRP's volume gradually expands and after breaking through it can turn the original resistance zone into support, the catch-up rally space is likely to continue opening; if $XRP quickly falls back to the consolidation zone after a surge, it means selling pressure above remains heavy and turnover needs to reset.
FET relies more on incremental funds. Moderate volume increase during consolidation is usually healthier than sudden volume spikes. If $FET continues to raise lows and active buy orders appear continuously, it indicates funds are positioning early; subsequent volume-price synchronized breakouts with sustained active trading make releasing the second phase elasticity easier, while surges without volume have limited sustainability.
Looking upward, watch for three signals: $SOL breakout, XRP stabilization, and FET volume expansion; downward, watch whether SOL's structure loosens first and which of XRP or FET falls back to the consolidation zone first. The truly worthwhile direction to follow is one where pressure is broken and can continue absorbing profit-taking, not just a one-time instant surge.At 7:40 this morning, the U.S. Senate procedural vote (cloture) on the crypto market structure bill CLARITY was 49 to 50, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold: all 49 votes in favor were from Republicans, with almost all Democrats opposing.
Market reaction (as of 8:00): · $BTC 75,710, 24h low 74,896 (-4.2%) then recovered, currently -3.1% · $ETH 2,402, low 2,356, -4.4% · 24h liquidations about $506 million · Reaction weaker than expected—rejection was already priced in, and there are buyers at the dip
Three key points:
cloture ≠ bill death, it can be re-voted or reintroduced; the sticking point is the ethics clause on the Trump family’s crypto business, which Democrats won’t relent on
Tonight at 2:00 FOMC decision, a 25bp rate hike is priced in at 86.5%—this is the second shoe to drop, with marginal impact greater than this vote
Regulatory vacuum continues: without CLARITY, the SEC/CFTC classification dispute persists, and XRP cases continue independently
Timeline of this account: 9-13 identified MINA as a recommended network token → 9-14 posted "Failed, premium to be given back" → today the latter part of the scenario is realized.
No positions held, pure data observation, not investment advice. Everyone is closely watching the clarity on the bill and interest rate hikes every day, but the price has basically already reflected these factors in the coin price.
So the most dangerous event for $BTC this week is actually the $5 billion IBIT options expiration on Friday.
For the IBIT options expiring this Friday, calls are at 3.13 billion vs puts at 2.02 billion, with calls clearly dominant; but the max pain converted to Bitcoin price is about 71,000, Finally, let's wrap up by looking at the news and which data points need to be observed going forward.
Yesterday's pullback was reported by foreign media as a result of rising rate hike expectations and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which pressured risk assets together.
Bitcoin experienced a downward test during intraday trading but then pulled back within the range. The source time is the 9/15 market report, not today's new settlement.
The FOMC decision is still scheduled for 9/16 Eastern Time, and as of now, the official result has not been released.
Do not write "expected rate hike" as "rate hike already happened."
Wait for the statement, dot plot, and press conference before updating.
There is also no new official weekly ETF settlement today to revise last week's numbers.
For now, continue to use the 9/14 foreign media report: The U.S. stock spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $463 million from 9/8 to 9/11; in the same week, the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about $197 million, the Solana ETF about $10.3 million, and the XRP ETF had a small net inflow.
Going forward, watch for: the FOMC results and speech from tonight to tomorrow morning, new ETF settlements, whether BTC holds above 74,000, whether ETH holds above 2300, whether DOGE 0.08 is breached, and whether prices and capital flows of various coins diverge.
The data came out yesterday causing a drop, but it is still within the range.
As long as stop-losses are not hit, you can open long positions at entry points, with stop-losses properly set.
Discipline comes before news.Damn, Tether has acted again. On the Tron network, it blacklisted 15 addresses at once, freezing about 3.31 million USDT, with the largest single amount being 1.13 million. The official side didn't give any reason. Even if the private key is in your pocket, it's useless; the issuer's contract layer directly freezes it, so you can't transfer it out. Stablecoins are like this: you hold the keys, but the switch belongs to someone else—who would still dare to treat it as hard cash on-chain?$ETH 100U Quant Trading Day 27 (8:15)｜Rate Hike Night, Bulls Sleeping Under the Gun
Last night we were still wondering if the US market could reach 2400 at open, but it broke through in less than an hour, and in the early morning it even stepped down to the previous low of 2355. It’s the same flavor as the big surge two days ago, just in the opposite direction.
Last Friday when the CPI came out, rate hike expectations rose. The move from 2615 to 2356 followed that. As for the decision at 2 AM tomorrow, whether they hike or not is already decided—the real variables are the dot plot and Powell’s wording: if he says more hikes are needed, this won’t be over; if he says let’s wait and see, it might mean the bad news is priced in.
The market is getting more crowded. The retail long-short ratio surged to 2.15, and big players added more. But bulls are still paying to hold positions, with futures prices even lower than spot—spot is absorbing all the selling, while futures have no one supporting the price.
Was the early morning drop a pre-digestion of bad news or a rehearsal for a bigger drop?
I lean toward a rehearsal: during the day it will likely hover around 2400, occasionally dipping to 2380, and then a deeper step down to the previous low. If it can’t get above 2400, the result will be hawkish, and we could see 2220 directly.
The bot ate well last night: shorts were the main force, closing positions steadily overnight, with decent entry points; it also caught a few longs with small losses. If it turns hawkish, I’m a bit worried about the bot’s positions.
Tonight’s hammer—betting hawkish or dovish?
Be flexible at key levels, watch your position size, take profits and cut losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness.
⚠️ The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice 9/16 Market Observation｜$ETH
Many people watching the BTC market first focus on the spot ETF fund data, as it is the most direct window into institutional capital flows in the crypto market. ETF subscriptions represent institutional capital entering the market; funds need to buy BTC spot on the secondary market, creating real buying support. Conversely, redemptions mean capital is leaving; funds need to sell BTC to cash out, bringing selling pressure to the market.
Today, overall market sentiment is cautious, compounded by regulatory news disturbances and the Fed rate cut expectations not yet materializing, so institutional capital is hesitant to make aggressive moves. Today's ETF fund inflow pace has clearly slowed, with no large continuous net inflows, indicating that large funds are not actively increasing positions at this stage and are mostly in a wait-and-see mode.
Here is a common misconception many fall into: do not take a single day's net inflow as a direct bullish signal. A single day's capital can only bring a short-term impulse rally; only continuous, stable, large net inflows over multiple days indicate long-term institutional optimism and can drive BTC into a sustained uptrend. If inflows are intermittent and small, the market will most likely remain range-bound.
ETF funds are just the result, not the root cause of the market trend. The underlying core remains the real yield on U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar index. Even if ETFs continue to see inflows, once Treasury yields rise and the macro environment tightens, BTC's upside will still be suppressed. Conversely, if macro expectations improve #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 #CLARITY投票前分歧未解
After the procedural vote on the CLARITY bill was declared lost, market sentiment clearly weakened, and $BTC also experienced a pullback. The final vote was 49 in favor and 50 against, falling significantly short of the 60-vote threshold needed to pass, with all Democratic lawmakers voting against it. The market had originally hoped that the US would soon establish a unified crypto regulatory framework to facilitate orderly institutional capital inflow, but this expectation was directly dashed.
From the chart perspective, BTC surged to around 79,600 before turning downward, dipping as low as 74,955, and is currently oscillating around 75,700. Short-term moving averages have all turned downward, the four-hour MACD is in the bearish zone, and selling pressure has not yet been fully released in the short term.
There remain two possible directions for subsequent divergence:
Bearish scenario: The bill is unlikely to be reintroduced for a vote in the short term, regulatory uncertainty will continue to hang over the market, and the price will likely continue to consolidate at the bottom, further testing lower support levels.
Bullish scenario: Lawmakers will resume negotiations and present a new version of the proposal, with positive expectations driving another price rebound.
However, it is important to understand that a single piece of news is unlikely to directly determine the long-term trend. The key focus going forward is whether the lower support levels can hold; if the support is broken, a deeper correction may follow. Currently, the market sentiment is heavily cautious, and it is not advisable to rush into betting on a one-sided direction.
$ETH $ZEC I checked the $SOXL token, 102.47, down 0.22% in 24h, with the US stock market closed overnight. It broke below MA7/MA25 but RSI 45.7 is not oversold; this divergence is worth exploring.
📰 News: Discussions about the 17% drop in SOXL before the FOMC and triple witching day are still brewing, but the chip stocks see more buying despite fear, sentiment hasn't dissipated.
🔧 Technical: Daily MACD shows a bearish crossover with expanding green bars, broke below MA7/MA25, 7/25 moving averages in a bearish alignment; RSI14=45.7 neutral, price hugging the lower Bollinger Band.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens down 0.50%, US stock market closed overnight leaving tokens without underlying stock anchors, volatility amplified by sentiment.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish. At this position, I prefer to look for recovery from the divergence rather than follow the bearish crossover downward.
📊 Token 102.47 (-0.22%) | US stock market closed overnight
💎 Summary: Watch for FOMC outcomes and triple witching day disturbances, beware of false drops due to low liquidity.
#USStockMarket
#SemiconductorSector
#SOXLOutlook #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准
Traditional financial giants join forces to enter the space—are they filling the last missing piece for the crypto world, or directly taking over on-chain pricing power?
S&P Global led Kaiko's $110 million Series B funding round, with institutions like BNP Paribas, Nasdaq, and Coinbase Ventures also joining the consortium.
The strategic intent behind this is clear: they are all betting on RWA. When government bonds, stocks, and even funds move on-chain and trade 24/7 without interruption, the asset value is no longer determined by blockchain oracles but by data standards recognized by traditional authoritative institutions.
I believe that the entry of traditional financial institutions this time can indeed fill the data compliance and pricing layers that RWA scaling lacks in the short term. Without endorsements from authentic authoritative institutions like S&P and Nasdaq, large capital would never blindly rush on-chain.
But in the long run, it is inevitable that on-chain pricing power will be harvested by traditional giants. Decentralization originally emphasized algorithms and mechanisms, but when real-world assets go on-chain, the data source still lies off-chain. Whoever controls the index publishing rights, compliant data sources, and clearing standards controls the gate to the on-chain market.
Data centralization
The RWA field will not be purely DeFi but a permissioned on-chain ecosystem dominated by compliant data sources from traditional giants.
Standards battle intensifies
Major index giants and data providers will accelerate harvesting on-chain data sources, directly replicating the traditional financial interest landscape on-chain.
DYOR $PONS: Short Selling
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when the price rebounds to the 0.6420-0.6500 range (MA5 resistance and previous high resistance zone).
• Set stop loss above 0.6650; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target downside at 0.5950 (MA20 support); if broken effectively, target 0.5500.
Core basis:
1. Moving average death cross resistance. On the 4-hour chart, MA5 (0.6423) is turning downward and about to cross below MA10 (0.6286), indicating clear short-term pressure, and the current price rebound is continuously suppressed by MA5.
2. Weak pattern recovery. Although there was a deep V rebound from 0.4952, it failed to break the previous high of 0.6980 and quickly fell back, representing a secondary bottom structure after a strong rebound, with heavy overhead supply.
3. Sentiment and liquidation resonance. Liquidation data shows 24-hour dual long and short liquidations (long positions 370,000, short positions 384,000), indicating high chip divergence. Coupled with macro negative factors causing a market-wide plunge, new tokens are prone to follow-down drops, making trend-following short selling more likely to succeed.
#Robinhood股票代币拟支持实物赎回及投票 #Strategy repurchases approximately $139 million STRC
Strategy repurchases approximately $139 million STRC, BTC slightly down 0.19%. This is another "move" by MicroStrategy (now Strategy) in its crypto treasury strategy.
Previously, Strategy was known for "buying, buying, buying," aggressively accumulating Bitcoin. Now it has taken out $139 million to repurchase preferred shares STRC. What does this indicate? It shows the company is optimizing its capital structure, balancing equity dilution and debt pressure. STRC fell 0.02%, with a muted market reaction.
For investors, the treasury model is shifting from "who holds more coins" to "who can better enhance per-share asset value." Financing costs, equity dilution, pledge yields, cash reserves—companies that can't figure out this equation will be eliminated in the next bear market. Strategy's move is preparation for long-term survival. Whether to buy coins or repurchase shares, there is no standard answer, only survival of the fittest.September 16
Gold Morning
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
1. Federal Reserve Policy
The market has already highly priced in a 25bp rate hike in September, with the rate hike expectation close to 90%. The current focus is no longer on "whether to hike or not," but on the dot plot and the tone of Wash's speech. Key attention is on 2 AM tonight.
If the rate hike occurs but the speech is dovish, implying the rate hike cycle is nearing its end, it is likely to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario, and gold prices will rebound;
If the rate hike occurs with a statement that tightening will continue, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to rise, and gold prices will face further downward pressure.
2. Middle East Geopolitics
Conflicts remain uncertain, and the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved. However, geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices will raise inflation concerns, which in turn strengthen the Federal Reserve's rationale for maintaining high interest rates. Safe-haven benefits are often offset by rate-related negatives; only a major escalation in the situation will allow safe-haven demand to dominate the market.
Technical Analysis
Daily chart: Closed lower and pulled back, gold prices broke below multiple short-term moving averages, with moving averages turning downward forming resistance above; RSI is near the oversold zone, showing some recovery momentum but no bottom-reversal candlestick signals have appeared, so the bottom cannot be subjectively judged.
Strategy: Short at 4310-4330, stop loss at 4350, targets at 4270-4250-4230
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, please trade cautiously
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $XAU Let's take a look at the Ripple part.
The current price is about 1.30.
Yesterday's data showed a sharper drop, deeper than other coins, but still within the range.
It hasn't hit the long position stop loss at 1.2, and is still farther from the short position at 1.5.
It's not an independent bearish reversal, still following the overall market.
The long position stop loss remains at 1.2.
Cut losses if it breaks.
As long as it hasn't touched 1.2, you can open long positions at your entry points, with stop loss set in advance.
Don't chase the dip just because it dropped 8% without reaching your entry zone.
For those who already have positions, take profit depends on personal style; discuss when the target is reached.
Short positions can be discussed again around 1.5.
Stop loss at 1.7.
Now moving downward, put short positions aside for now.
Set aside strength and weakness first.
If stop loss isn't hit, you can go long; entry points remain the same.Just hit the trending list and immediately dropped over 10%: Save the defensive market script for RAY
Wow, $RAY just hit CoinGecko trending and took a hit—24h -11.393%, current price 1.2342. I don't catch falling knives; I only reduce positions on rebounds.
Trending is not a buy signal—this token rose +101.14% in 30 days but fell from 1.6682 to 1.2342 in four days.
The bigger picture is colder—$BTC at 75703.4 (24h -3.181%), the whole market has 55 down and 11 up, with a long-short ratio of 2.65, peaking at the 2.2 warning line.
It itself has no volume—24h trading volume 5.916 million USDT, volume ratio 0.88, pure volume contraction with a slow decline.
Resistance above: 1.2539 (first resistance) → 1.3414 → 1.4136 (24h high)
Support below: 1.1936 (24h low) → 1.1905 → 1.1695 (strong support)
Watershed level: 1.1936. Hold to grind the bottom; break below targets 1.1695.
Conclusion: Most likely weak oscillation above 1.1936 rather than a V-shaped rebound—reduce positions at 1.2539 on rebound, clear positions if it breaks 1.1936, and only consider recovery after reclaiming 1.2539.
Trending gives you traffic, I give you price levels, stay tuned and don't get lost.
$RAY $BTCIn one hour, $ETH long positions worth 74.98 million were liquidated
The bill hasn't been voted on yet, but the market moved first.
Where did this money come from:
Long positions are bought on margin; when the price drops, the system sells them off for the holders.
The sell orders push the price down further, causing the next batch of traders to be sold out.
How is this number calculated:
74.98 million is the total amount of long positions forcibly closed in this hour.
No one is actively dumping the market; it's the leverage clearing itself.
The back-and-forth market action looks like someone is targeting you.
In reality, it's just leverage on both sides being swept alternately.
The real direction will only be confirmed after the bill and interest rate decision results are finalized.
Before that, whoever adds leverage first gets liquidated first.
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH 90% chance of rate hike, why are crypto prices rising against the trend?
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 90%, with macro pressure looming. However, $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC have not fallen accordingly; instead, they have slightly increased. The key is not the news itself but the contract chips: bearish expectations are too unanimous, short positions have clustered early, and the main players take the opportunity to push prices up, triggering stop-losses and liquidations. Short covering then becomes the driving force for the rise. Before the decision is announced, a common pattern is to first create a "bad news but no drop" bull trap, waiting for long positions to enter and shorts to clear, then reversing to dump the market.
Key levels
✅$BTC: resistance 81000‑82152; support 75000, break to watch 73900
✅$ETH: resistance 2600‑2660; support 2502, break to watch 2480
✅$ZEC: resistance 1092‑1198, extreme 1320; support 1089‑1102
Conclusion: Before the decision, longs and shorts sweep losses back and forth; a spike may not be a true breakout. Do not blindly chase longs; wait for signal confirmation before acting. $BTC $DOGE: Short Selling
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when the price rebounds to the 0.0807-0.0816 range (resistance at MA10 and MA20).
• Set stop-loss above 0.0830; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target the previous low at 0.07835; if broken effectively, look down to 0.076.
Core Basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment. On the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are diverging downward, with price continuously suppressed below MA20 (0.08164), showing very weak rebounds.
2. Poor volume-price coordination. The decline is accompanied by significant volume increase, while the current weak rebound volume at the bottom has sharply shrunk, indicating a lack of buying power and only a technical correction after overselling.
3. Clear pattern breakdown. From the high of 0.08612, the price has steadily declined and accelerated down to 0.07835, with the overall downtrend unchanged, making trend-following short positions more likely to succeed.
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 $CNPY was careless, didn't expect it to just poke two needles, all the long positions above were taken out, most of them should be stop-loss orders.I read Brian Armstrong's post twice, not because the content is deep, but because this guy really knows how to pick the right moment to speak.
The bill didn't pass, his first sentence was "disappointed," and the second sentence turned to "don't wait for Congress, the SEC and CFTC can handle it themselves." To translate: the front door is blocked, so take the side door; anyway, someone has to set the rules.
What I admire most is the latter part. CLARITY made concessions, and he said "maybe this is better." If someone else said this, it would sound like giving up, but coming from him, it sounds like he already found a way out in advance.
Outsiders might think this is surrender. I think this is the tactic of a veteran, not stubbornly fighting a stuck process.
As for me? I haven't even figured out the proposal process, and they're already arranging the next step. Just watching the show first.
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 $HYPE #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$USELESS current price is 0.21367, up 5.93% in 24 hours, net inflow of 24.33 million, trading volume of 55.52 million. The net inflow as a proportion of trading volume is indeed not low, indicating there is capital support, not just a simple pump.
However, for these small-cap meme coins, even if the capital inflow data looks good, be cautious — the market cap is thin, a few large orders can make the indicators look good, which could also be a prelude to a pump-and-dump. Whether 0.2050 holds depends on whether buyers really step in on the pullback, not just order cancellations.
Enter on a pullback to 0.2050, stop loss at 0.1910, targets at 0.2350 and 0.2500, the risk-reward ratio is acceptable. The problem is the FOMC tomorrow; when macro conditions change, these small coins fall faster than anyone else, and the stop loss might get triggered by a spike before recovering.
Before the rate decision, don't hold heavy positions in such high-volatility coins. If you want to trade, keep a small position, use strict stop losses, and don't treat your trading plan as faith. If 0.2050 can hold and capital continues to flow in, consider adding; otherwise, better to miss out.Waterfall Baptism! Retail investors are even more stubborn than Bitcoin, while the main players watch from the sidelines?
1. Market Situation: Breakdown and Washout, Bullish Stampede
① BTC and ETH both suffer waterfall-like crashes, with candlesticks directly breaking key supports, showing a very ugly trend.
② Active buy and sell volumes explode with massive sell orders during the crash, then quickly shrink, indicating panic selling flooded out and buyers completely backed off, no one dares to take over.
2. Core Risk: Retail Investors Extremely Crowded, ETH is the Hardest Hit
① During the crash, the long-short ratio rises instead of falling: BTC surged from 1.18 to 2.04, ETH even crazily jumped from 0.98 to 2.31!
② Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing, especially ETH, with bullish positions extremely crowded. If the main players want to push prices up, they must first retest the bottom to wash out these floating positions—don’t be cannon fodder!
3. Indicators and Sentiment: Oversold but Not Blindly Optimistic
① The 4-hour J value drops to single digits, extremely oversold, with a technical rebound possible at any time in the short term.
② But the funding rate stubbornly clings to the zero line, main players have not stepped in to support the market, relying purely on retail investors fighting among themselves; a rebound without volume is very likely to fail again.
Core Summary: Don’t gamble your flesh and blood against the main players’ guns! Control your hands, save your bullets, and wait until these crazily bottom-fishing bulls are completely cleared out—only then will the market truly turn around!
$BTC $ETH $SOL: Short Position
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when the price rebounds to the 97.9-99.2 range (resistance at MA10 and MA20).
• Set stop-loss above 100; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target the previous low at 95.66; if broken effectively, look down to 93.
Core Basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment. On the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are diverging downward, with price continuously suppressed below 99.24, showing very weak rebounds.
2. Clear pattern breakdown. From the high of 104.78, the price has steadily declined, breaking below the key psychological level of 100, with a low of 95.66, indicating a thoroughly deteriorated overall trend.
3. Poor volume-price coordination. The decline was accompanied by significant volume increase, while the current weak rebound at the bottom shows sharply reduced volume, indicating a lack of buying power. This is merely a technical correction after overselling, combined with macroeconomic bearish factors triggering market panic, making trend-following shorting more likely to succeed.
#10年期美债收益率突破5% The most interesting thing about this market isn't $ETH dropping to 2400, but that the crypto bill's negative news and technical factors collided at the same time.
On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted 49 in favor and 50 against, failing to advance the CLARITY Act. The market's anticipated regulatory framework for crypto market structure got stuck. After this news, $BTC and the crypto market both showed clear pressure.
If I were trading ETH now, I wouldn't just go long near 2400 because it "dropped a lot." First, I’d watch if the 2356-2416 range can be reclaimed; only when it truly stands back above 2490 would I reconsider going long.
The failure of this bill gives me a very clear feeling: the market isn't short on stories, it's short on fulfillment.
Many like to bet on good news in advance, but I now prefer to wait for the market to tell me the answer.
After all, after trading for a long time, I realize the most costly mistake isn't missing out, but stubbornly catching a falling knife just to prove you were right. 各位会员，北京时间9月17日凌晨2:00，美联储将公布9月FOMC利率决议及SEP经济预测摘要，2:30美联储主席凯文·沃什召开新闻发布会。作为Q3权重最高的货币政策落地窗口，本次会议绝非“加息/不加息”的二元判断，其核心定价矛盾在于：市场已充分计价25bp加息预期，真正决定中期趋势的，是加息周期终点确认、高利率维持时长，以及2026-2027年利率路径的修正。对于合约交易而言，本次事件的核心是“管理预期差”，而非预判结果，我们以机构化的情景推演框架，给出完整的交易执行与风控方案。 一、当前市场定价基准与预期差空间 截至会前，CME FedWatch工具显示9月加息25bp至4.00%的市场定价约87%，维持利率不变概率约13%，加息50bp完全未被定价。这意味着，加息25bp本身已属于基准情景，落地后不会产生趋势性增量冲击；真正的超预期变量集中在三点：一是SEP点阵图对2026年末利率中枢的上调/下调幅度；二是沃什对“后续是否继续加息”的表态边界；三是对通胀与就业数据的政策权重调整。 需要特别注意的是，新任主席沃什本身带有鲜明的“通胀斗士”标签，政策立场天然偏鹰，市场对其讲话的鹰派容Let's take a look at Dogecoin.
The current price is about 0.081.
Yesterday's data went down, already very close to the long position stop loss at 0.08.
Still at the edge of the range, but the space is much narrower than other coins.
Set the long position stop loss firmly at 0.08.
Cut losses if it breaks, don't hold on.
As long as it hasn't touched 0.08, you can open a long position at your entry point, with stop loss set.
But this price is already close to the line, think carefully before entering: the stop loss can be hit quickly.
If you don't have your own entry point, don't randomly buy just because it's cheap.
Take profit depends on the individual.
Short positions still start at 0.09, add at 0.10.
Stop loss at 0.11.
Current price is on the lower side, not the time to enter short positions.
Dogecoin and the overall market.
The most important thing now is the stop loss line, first see if it holds.$OKB: Short.
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when it rebounds to the 110.5-111.3 range (resistance at MA10 and MA20).
• Set stop loss above 112; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target the previous low at 108.4; if broken effectively, look down to 105.
Core basis:
1. Pattern breakdown: On the 1-hour chart, a cliff-like drop from 114.69 to 108.4 with heavy trapped positions in a large bearish candle; the current slight rebound is a very weak correction.
2. Moving average resistance: MA5, MA10, and MA20 diverge downward forming a bearish alignment; price is constrained below 111.32 with weak rebound unable to break through.
3. Volume divergence: Significant volume increase during the decline, but volume shrinks sharply during the rebound phase, indicating lack of buying power; combined with macro negative factors causing market panic, shorting with the trend has a higher success rate.
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 2,550 failed to break through three times, now it's 2,400's turn to take a hit
Three attempts to push past 2,550 were all pressed back, $ETH is now trembling above 2,400.
Current position: 2,400 is the daily life-or-death line; breaking below it will directly target 2,387. Below that, 2,405 still holds $1.21 billion in long liquidations, once broken it will trigger a chain reaction.
To follow or not: 86% of people bet on a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, the real suspense lies in Powell's speech. RSI shows bearish divergence, price has already lost the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Past three attempts failed, now it can't even hold the moving averages; the forecast is to first watch 2,350-2,360, and if broken, look for 2,300.
To be clear, I won't catch this position; I've had enough of holding positions to the point of ruin once.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ETH The coins most likely to pump today, I'll be watching these three closely.
First: PONS$PONS
PONS has shown much greater volatility than typical altcoins in the past couple of days.
It previously corrected down from a high, and now the market is refocusing on its capital flow. Also, PONS just launched on OKX, and the price has already surged near 0.66. New liquidity and sentiment are rapidly shifting. If it can hold steady around 0.66 and volume continues to expand, short-term funds may keep chasing. But if volume increases without price movement, be cautious of profit-taking dumping the price.
Second: VET
VET is seeing a real event materialize today.
The VeChain Interstellar hard fork activates today at block height 25,902,540. The upgrade involves EVM capabilities and multiple Ethereum improvements, without changing VET supply.
There was already a round of speculation before; if the positive news triggers volume-driven price surges today, it means funds haven't exited yet.
Third: ARB$ARB
ARB has about 92.65 million tokens unlocking today. The market usually treats this as selling pressure initially, but if after unlocking the price doesn't drop further and instead rallies with volume, it often signals a rebound after negative news.
This kind of movement tends to force early short sellers to cover their positions.
So today I'll be watching:
PONS's performance after listing, VET's hard fork, and ARB's post-unlock support. Brothers, today the whole day was basically driven by news, with the market pricing in the FOMC in advance.
The market was weak in the morning session, then $BTC and $ETH continued to dip. Behind this is not just the interest rate hike expectations, but also the surge in oil prices, the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 5%, and the weakness in US stocks. Risk assets overall are under pressure.
Additionally, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act did not advance today, which dealt another blow to crypto sentiment. BTC once dropped to around 75,500, and ETH's decline was even more pronounced.
But I think there is an important detail now: the 25bp rate hike expectation has already been fully priced in by the market. The mainstream forecast is currently around 84%–94%, so today's decline can also be understood as an early digestion of the bad news.
Therefore, from now until the FOMC tonight, I lean more towards weak consolidation and repeated shakeouts, with the possibility of a repair rally. What truly determines the next direction for BTC and ETH is not simply "whether to hike rates or not," but how hawkish Powell will be after the hike and whether there are expectations for further hikes.
I actually feel uncomfortable chasing shorts now. It's more important to wait for the news to come out and see how the market moves than to bet on the direction prematurely.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 #10年期美债收益率突破5% $BTC $ETH $SOL
Someone really turned shorting into performance art. Shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL together, with a total position close to $1.8 billion, currently at an unrealized loss of about $39.67 million, yet still no liquidation.
BTC: Short 1,891.4 coins, opened at 72,307, valued at about $1.48 billion, unrealized loss about $11.73 million.
ETH: Short 103,000 coins, opened at 2,285.78, valued at about $258 million, unrealized loss about $22.36 million.
SOL: Short 736,000 coins, opened at 94.02, valued at about $74.79 million, unrealized loss about $5.59 million.
Even more intense is the leverage: BTC and ETH are both fully shorted at 5x leverage, SOL is fully shorted at 10x leverage. Liquidation prices are 133,800, 3,509, and 240.29 respectively. In the short term, there is still some distance, but high leverage is most vulnerable to sudden spikes and flash crashes.
He is betting on the rebound ending and macro conditions weakening; the market might also first trigger a short squeeze to test his resolve. Whether this is a whale setting a trap early or the market preparing to close in, we will soon find out.
With a position like this, would you dare to follow? After holding a position for 26 days and liquidating with a loss of 296U, I reviewed 5 hard-earned iron rules.
I suffered for three whole days, frequently checking the forced liquidation records!
Today, I tore open the wound and summarized 5 iron rules bought with real money. If you currently have open positions, read this before deciding whether to hold on:
Iron Rule 1: Never try to prove you are smarter than the market.
I opened a short at 1892, clearly saw bullish signals, but insisted on going "against the grain." The market doesn’t target you; it just eliminates those who refuse to admit mistakes.
Iron Rule 2: Stop loss is the price of admitting failure; holding on is a ticket to self-destruction.
From a floating loss of over 200U to a floating profit of 109U, I experienced countless illusions of "almost breaking even," only to be pierced by a single CPI needle.
Iron Rule 3: "Breaking even" is the most toxic obsession in this world.
We hold positions not to make money, but just to "not lose." This loss aversion will turn a 200U loss into losing all your principal.
Iron Rule 4: Position size reflects mindset; getting rich quick is an illusion; survival is the core.
I used to hold heavy positions with 10x leverage stubbornly; now I only use a few units to test the waters.
Iron Rule 5: Don’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose on markets you don’t understand.
After liquidation, I restarted with only 25U left. That feeling of crawling out of the ruins is something I never want to experience again in this life.
I posted these 5 iron rules on the community; please supervise me. Also, to those holding positions now: don’t wait for the forced liquidation record to pop up before regretting not cutting losses earlier.涨几天就觉得牛市来了，跌几天又觉得周期结束了，这其实都是被K线牵着走。真正值得关注的是三个东西：资金有没有持续进入、链上生态有没有持续增长、项目有没有真实需求。BTC的逻辑越来越接近数字资产和稀缺价值存储；ETH的核心在于结算层、DeFi、稳定币和生态基础设施；SUI、SOL等公链争夺的是应用和用户；而OKB这类平台型资产，则需要观察平台生态、用户增长和代币实际价值捕获能力。不要因为某个币今天涨了20%就改变自己的逻辑，也不要因为市场回撤就否定一个长期趋势。对于普通投资者来说，最重要的不是预测每一次上涨，而是控制仓位、降低杠杆、留足现金，并且真正搞懂自己买的东西。市场永远不会奖励一个只会追热点的人太久，但会不断给有耐心、有纪律的人重新选择的机会。未来几年，我更愿意把注意力放在“行业有没有越来越多人真正使用”上，而不是每天猜下一根K线。周期会反复，叙事会变化，真正留下来的，最终还是资金、用户和真实需求。#比特币 #ETH #SUI #OKB #加密货币 #Web3 #长期主义 @热门Tonight's FOMC, my take: The rate hike is most likely already priced in by the market. What really matters is whether the dot plot and the speech lean dovish or hawkish. For BTC, first watch if it can hold around 75,000; don't get caught up in the rhythm of one-minute candlesticks. Liquidation frenzy doesn't mean the direction is set; wait until the leverage clears to talk about structure. Don't go all-in emotionally tonight; keep some cash and patience.Long and Short Crowding Rankings
$CNPY negative fee rate is at a historically low level in the sample, with shorts bearing the settlement cost: current rate -0.5020%, at the 5.172413793103448275862068966% percentile among the last 58 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 13 times is -4.354%; price dropped 0.94%, open interest changed +3.76%. Settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by shorts to longs, with the negative fee rate magnitude at an extreme side of the historical sample.
$SNDK positive fee rate is at a historically high level, with longs facing higher settlement costs: current rate +0.0349%, at the 95% percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 3 times is +0.0104193788073200%; price dropped 0.11%, open interest changed +0.14%.
$RAY positive fee rate is at a historically high level, with longs facing higher settlement costs: current rate +0.0100%, at the 100% percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 3 times is +0.030%; price dropped 0.01%, open interest changed +0.31%.
SNDK, RAY: Settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, with the current rate higher than most historical single settlement samples; price decline coexists with longs paying fees, meaning longs face both weakening prices and funding cost.$BTC
Let's review the voting results of tonight's "Clarity Act" motion. The final tally was 49 to 50 votes, with a total of 99 people voting.
This result is clearly not just a simple failure to reach 60 votes; it is an obvious underperformance compared to expectations. The threshold for pushing the bill remains very high and the difficulty is considerable.
Currently, the Senate has 53 Republican seats, 45 Democratic seats, and 2 Independent seats. This means that if all Republicans fully supported it, at minimum 53 votes in favor could be expected.
However, the actual result is a clear contradiction. Not only did Democrats oppose it, but not all Republicans fully supported it either. Four Republicans voted against it.
By checking the list, the results show that Republican senators Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran, and Tom Tillis voted against it. Tom Tillis voted against in order to preserve the right to reintroduce the motion in the future. So, in reality, three Republicans opposed it.
On the other hand, none of the seven key Democrats voted in favor, meaning their lobbying was basically ineffective!
The current voting results and data basically confirm my previous conclusion: facing the midterm elections, senators vote cautiously. The progress of the Clarity Act is a long and difficult road. In the short term, it is indeed unfavorable to the crypto industry, but in the long term, the possibility is not completely closed! Keep going! The last few hours before the decision, the real signal is not in the candlesticks, but in the positions.
The probability of a rate hike is 88%, but in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 342 million, shorts liquidated 232 million, longs only 110 million — short losses are twice that of longs. First sweep out the shorts, then lure the longs, the script is unfolding.
The fear and greed index jumped from 57 to 68 in one day, greed is being rapidly manufactured. Chasing the rally now is easy to get cut.
Key levels are set here:
$BTC 76,800 is the watershed; holding it targets 78,500-80,000, losing it returns to 76,000
$ETH 2,443 is the lifeline; holding the double bottom is valid, breaking it targets 2,380
$XRP 1.38 is the launch pad, 1.2889 is the lifeline
$ZEC 1,050 is the whale bottom line, resistance at 1,200
$SOL 98.2 is the bottom line, 104.8 is the signal
In the past 12 hours, USDT and USDC issued about 1.4 billion more; money is entering, but hasn't yet surged into altcoins. The real signal is when funding rates turn positive and stablecoins flow into altcoins.
Tonight's focus is not whether to hike rates, but the dot plot and Powell's words.
Dovish hike: ETH, XRP, SOL bounce the most.
Hawkish continuation: BTC holds 76,800, ETH breaks 2,443 first.
Don't chase before the decision, don't immediately buy after.
Wait for the first 1-hour candle close.
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land?
#FOMC #BTC #ETH #XRP #ZEC #SOL
Not investment advice, DYOR. In summary: be cautious in the short term, not pessimistic in the medium term. Around 76,000 is the recent tug-of-war point between bulls and bears; holding it could lead to a rebound, breaking it points to 71,000–73,000. Volatility will be highest 24–48 hours after the Fed decision. My personal strategy is to control position size, set stop losses, neither go all-in nor bottom fish lightly. The market is always there; preserving capital comes first. $BTC The procedural vote in the US Senate to advance the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold, delivering a heavy blow to the crypto market.
Luckily, I held back from getting in, or I would have really been stuck at the peak. The crypto market has fully retreated, BTC down 4.67%, ETH down 7.71%. BNB surprisingly didn’t drop much, staying solid. For those who missed out, is it time to get in now?
I think using 15% to avoid missing out, and 85% in cash to guard against a crash is wise. All short-term positions should wait for a landing, long-term positions can buy small amounts, absolutely no leverage. After all, there’s still a small chance of no rate hike; if that happens, you definitely won’t catch it, it will shoot up in one move.
CZ posted a wild idea hoping to see immortal fruit flies on BNB Chain, and this morning there were many memes with the same name. It’s also dropped close to 1m now. BSC’s heat has cooled down quite a bit.
Looks like everyone is scared of being cut short-term again. Why short-term? Because soon enough, everyone will forget, then a golden dog will appear, people will come in, and then get harvested again, an endless cycle.
Arc’s mainnet launched today, and some KOLs are promoting it as a life-changing opportunity. Hope everyone stays calm and doesn’t start screaming and get stuck at the peak again. Often, the places where you see money being made are the places you can’t make money. Sometimes, the opportunities to make money are where few people notice. If you really like Arc, I suggest you check out $CRCL directly.
Still the same advice: control your hands, control your hands! Don’t blindly follow the crowd; most people’s decisions are wrong! $CRCL $BTC ▍₿ BTC Quick Report: Bill Killed, FOMC Tonight, The Most Dangerous 24 Hours
Current price 76,000, went crazy at dawn: CLARITY bill killed 49:50 (4 Republicans defected), BTC once smashed through 75,000, 115,000 liquidations across the network, XRP directly -10%. 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5% (highest since 2007), oil price 105, three major pressures.
▍📍 Key Levels
75,000 is the lifeline, below 75,460-76,378 there are still huge liquidation orders; above 78,000-80,000 has been resisted three times, 83,000 is the trend confirmation level.
▍🎯 Action Plan
Entry: Do not move before the decision. If hawkish sell-off, buy in batches at 73,500-75,000; after landing, recover 78,000 with volume before chasing more.
Targets: 78,000 → 80,000, after stabilizing above 83,000 look to 92K.
Stop loss: Unconditionally exit if daily close falls below 75,000, downside target 73,000.
▍⚠️ Decision at 2:00 AM tonight, Warsh press conference at 2:30 AM. 92% rate hike probability is not the focus, the focus is the dot plot and the speech. Halve your position, survive tonight before talking about tomorrow.
Not investment advice, trade at your own risk The most important thing for $BTC right now is not to guess the rebound, but to see if it can hold steady around $76,000. After the market has continuously given back gains, if this level is lost, the short-term trend is likely to continue downward to find support; conversely, only if it can reclaim $78,000 does it indicate that buyers are starting to regain control. At this position for BTC, I prefer to keep a base position and not chase recklessly in a weak market.
$BICO follows a different logic. Small-cap accounts in abstract sectors have enough elasticity, but the capital sustainability is weaker than the overall market. Before a clear volume increase, sharp rallies are better seen as capital testing the waters; if you want to position, do so with small batches and don't mistake a single rebound for a reversal.
$SLX has recently been pressured down from above $0.07 to around $0.062. The $0.062–$0.060 range is now a critical short-term zone. It can only have room for recovery if it stops falling here and reclaims $0.065; if it continues to break below $0.060, don't rush to buy.
The order of these three positions is very clear: hold BTC, accumulate BICO, wait on SLX. The biggest fear in a weak market is not missing the bottom, but mistaking every dip for the bottom. $BTC: Short Selling
【Trading Strategy】
1. Reference Levels: Closely monitor the 76000-76500 range (MA10 and MA20 resistance zone). Enter short positions in batches if the rebound lacks strength.
2. Defense Setup: Strong resistance above at 77000; stop loss if broken.
3. Downside Target: First watch the previous low at 74955; if effectively broken, consider light short positions.
4. Risk Warning: Do not blindly bottom-fish around 75000 to catch falling knives; beware of a double whammy from both bulls and bears.
【Core Basis】
1. News Impact: The "CLARITY Act" procedural vote failed, regulatory uncertainty triggered panic selling, with total crypto market cap down 4% in 24 hours.
2. Bearish Market Structure: 1-hour K-line has steadily declined from 79600, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 diverging downward, indicating a thoroughly weakened trend.
3. Bullish Liquidations: $671 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, including $200 million in long positions (with $170 million in 12 hours), crushing bullish confidence; deleveraging is ongoing.
4. Momentum Decay: After falling to 74955, there was a slight rebound but volume did not continue to expand, indicating a technical correction after overselling; overall weak pattern remains unchanged.
$ETH $FIL
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, Will Rate Hikes Land?
#AIDevelopmentAnxietyRises, Chip Stocks Collectively Weaken Countdown to the interest rate meeting, the market is oscillating at low levels with weak volume. $BTC is currently around 74982, after a small probe overnight it pulled back, with resistance at 75988 and support at 73998. $ETH is currently around 2408, resistance at 2570, support at 2362, on-chain staking is stable with no large fluctuations. SOL and DOGE are repeatedly tugging in the short term, small altcoins pulse frequently, with funds moving in and out quickly. US Treasury yields remain high, with strong expectations of rate hikes, suppressing risk assets.
The most dangerous thing about this market is not the unclear direction, but that it looks like there is an opportunity. Small altcoins pulse intermittently, easily misleading people into thinking there is profit to be made, but behind the quick in-and-out of funds, no one is willing to hold positions overnight. Weak volume indicates that the main players are also waiting for the interest rate decision. Entering the market to gamble at this time essentially means betting your own position against others' patience.
The best action during the waiting window before the news is no action. Before a clear one-sided trend emerges, any entry is just testing errors for others.
A similar situation occurred on the eve of the 2021 interest rate meeting, with repeated tugging in the market and frequent pulses in altcoins. Many couldn't resist jumping in to catch the rebound, but once the decision was announced and the direction became clear, short-term positions were all buried. Those who truly waited for the signal ended up with better positions.
The current market is for waiting, not for opportunity. Mainstream coins should be lightly held and observed, altcoins should be avoided, control overall positions, and patiently wait for #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ In the early morning of September 16 Beijing time, the U.S. Senate held a cloture vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," which ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, so the bill did not advance. The Republicans hold 53 seats, with at least 3 members not voting in favor.
After the news broke, Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $75,000, and crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood, and Strategy collectively weakened. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill becoming law by the end of 2026 dropped from over 30% at the beginning of the week to about 5%.
The direct reason for the failure was that the Democrats did not accept the final proposal released by the Republicans on September 14 and submitted a counterproposal just hours before the vote. Mark Warner stated that while enforcement and national security disputes were nearly resolved, conflicts of interest regarding public officials profiting from the crypto industry remained unresolved, leading to opposition. Several Democrats involved in the negotiations ultimately sided against the bill.
The counterproposal is still stuck on ethics provisions, focusing on expanding restrictions, mandating the sale of equity in certain crypto companies, tightening enforcement and disclosure, and adding DeFi protections. The revised text still does not restore the criminal safe harbor for developers, miners, and validators found in the BRCA.
However, this setback only means the bill cannot enter formal consideration and amendment procedures for now; it does not mean final rejection. There is currently no timetable for whether 60 votes can be gathered again within the year. $BTC $ETH The real signal is not in the price, but in the liquidation structure.
The probability of a rate hike in September is 88%, but the liquidation data across the network in the past 24 hours hides key information: total liquidations reached $342 million, shorts liquidated $232 million, longs only $110 million, with short losses 2.1 times that of longs.
77,200 people were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation being Binance's ETHUSDT at $9.19 million. BTC shorts liquidated $74.59 million, ETH shorts liquidated $96.17 million — large funds swept up shorts before the decision, clearing out bearish positions set up in advance.
This is completely opposite to retail traders' perception. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from 57 to 68, rising 12 points in one day, entering the "Greed" zone. Shorts being swept and sentiment turning greedy is a typical "short squeeze rebound" structure, not a true trend reversal.
Positions are more honest than opinions.
---
$BTC is currently oscillating between 77,400-77,700. Resistance at 78,000-78,500; a breakout targets 79,600-80,000; support at 77,000-77,300, more crucially at 76,500-76,800; if broken, look to 75,500-76,000. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $160 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $134 million, ending a prior four-day net outflow of $463 million.
$ETH is currently between 2,433-2,478, with the 24-hour low of 2,433 just tested. The bid-ask depth ratio is 0.61, with total sell volume at 6.60 versus buy volume at 4.00, showing significant selling pressure. Resistance at 2,486 and 2,614; support at 2,433, with a break accelerating the decline. DeFi market share is contracting short-term, lacking new growth points in core popular applications, weakening short-term bullish confidence.
$XRP has a short liquidation ratio as high as 79%, making it the most thoroughly cleaned mainstream coin. 1.38 is the key defense line; holding it keeps the structure intact, with 1.49 as the next launch pad.
$ZEC short liquidations account for 68%, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 10%, leading altcoins. Resistance at 1,200-1,220; holding above opens space; support at 1,077-1,109, more crucially at 1,050.
$SOL short liquidations account for 50%, with 100.85 repeatedly tested at the 100-yuan level. 98.2 is the bottom line; a breakout at 104.8-105.8 targets 110. 50:49, one-vote veto! Bitcoin plunges, tonight's Fed meeting is the main event
The industry lobbied for years and spent hundreds of millions of dollars, but the Senate vote was 50 in favor and 49 against, falling 10 votes short of the 60-vote threshold. Bitcoin briefly plunged over 3%, with more than 115,000 liquidations across the market. What exactly is happening in the crypto world today?
"Clear Act" fails in the Senate
This bill was supposed to delineate regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing legal clarity for the crypto market. However, Democrats invoked conflict of interest clauses, and eight banking groups called for tightening stablecoin circuit breakers, effectively killing the bill. The crypto regulatory vacuum will continue.
Market hit across the board
$BTC: briefly fell below $75,000, currently around $76,408 (-2.98%)
$ETH: down over 4%
- Crypto concept stocks: Circle down over 11%, Coinbase down over 10%
- Liquidations: over 115,000 in 24 hours, totaling about $490 million
Additional pressure: oil prices surge + U.S. Treasury yields break 5%
WTI crude oil rose over 4% to surpass $105, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5%, a new high since 2007. These two factors combined are a solid suppression on risk assets.
Tonight's main event: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, with over a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.
If the rate hike happens with hawkish language, the crypto market may continue to decline; if the Fed signals "preemptive rate hike and subsequent wait-and-see," it could trigger a rebound after the negative news is fully priced in.
The bill's veto is today's biggest negative, putting short-term sentiment under pressure. Tonight's Fed decision is the real test—be sure to manage your positions and avoid going all-in during the most news-heavy period.
Do you think the Fed will raise rates tonight? After the hike, will the crypto market continue to fall or rebound after the bad news is priced in? Let's discuss in the comments.$ETH whale continues to close positions near 2400 — in-depth analysis
Core logic of closing positions
This whale established short positions from a high of 2,667, holding through to 2,400 (floating profit about 10%), and is currently taking profits in batches rather than panic closing shorts. Its operational characteristics:
High-level short → trend confirmation → continuous adding to position → batch profit-taking in oversold zone → wait for rebound to short again
This is a complete "trend following + swing harvesting" cycle, currently entering the profit-taking phase.
Why choose to close positions at 2400?
① Extreme oversold signals fully triggered: 4-hour RSI6 at only 17.85, J value at just 7.59 — the most extreme oversold reading in nearly two months. The whale would not wait for a full technical rebound to unfold before exiting; it starts locking in profits at the first confirmation of oversold conditions.
② Bollinger lower band support has been reached
The daily Bollinger lower band is at 2,388.53, and the current price of 2,399 is very close. After breaking below the lower band, a mean reversion rebound is highly likely. The whale will not risk holding shorts near the support level.
After the whale closes positions, what’s next for ETH?
Short term (1-3 days): technical rebound
Rebound target: 2,440-2,465 (dense area of daily EMA5/EMA10)
Catalysts: oversold repair + long buying pressure released by whale closing positions
Probability: over 80% chance of a rebound, but the amplitude won’t be large (1.5%-2.5%) $UNI $6.395, -2.08%, deep drop from 6.577 down to 6.194, then a strong V-recovery back through 6.40. MA5/10/20 all flipped bullish on the bounce — real buying at the lows, not just a wick.
Even with today’s red, the trend is unmistakable: +95.32% (30D), +98.17% (90D), +78.73% (180D). UNI’s been one of the standout performers across the board this cycle.
NFA — watching if 6.40 holds. Anthropic heads to Nasdaq, OpenAI stays on the sidelines, with the two AI giants turning capital choices into two paths: one accepts public pricing, the other continues to delay disclosure. Seemingly a swap between conservatism and aggressiveness, but both are actually raising funds for the next round of computing power, talent, and security investment.
Anthropic's dilemma is easy to explain: the more it talks about risks, the more it needs to build guardrails; the more guardrails it builds, the more long-term funding it requires. IPO is not abandoning safety, but turning safety from a slogan into budget, audit, and disclosure obligations.
But once the bell rings, the market will focus on revenue, profit, and model iteration. When the security team calls a halt, investors may not be willing to wait. What needs to be verified is not whether Claude can make money, but whether the public market can tolerate an AI company that occasionally slows down.
I still hope it goes public. AI affects everyone, yet operational information flows only to a few private equity shareholders, which itself is a risk. The public market is noisy, but it forces costs, governance, and trade-offs to surface.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO