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$XAU
Woke up early to find gold has dropped again. I checked the funding fee, and compared to BTC, gold's funding fee seems never to have been positive. A few days ago, it peaked at an annualized rate of over 50%, which for those using leverage means a total loss of ✘100.
The strange thing is, the more gold falls, the higher the funding fee gets. It seems everyone shares a consensus that "gold will rise again," so the more it falls, the more people add to their positions, keeping the funding fee high.
However, during the rate hike cycle, US Treasury yields keep hitting new highs. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold is bound to be under pressure. Most likely, it will continue to decline with fluctuations. Long-term holding is only suitable for spot trading; although contracts allow high leverage, ordinary people cannot bear the funding fees.
Even for short-term trading, the funding fees charged three times a day can equal the transaction fees.
Large players use it to capture funding fees, which is indeed effective. But for those planning to go long for the medium to long term, I sincerely do not recommend opening contracts. Shorting at good entry points can be considered, as the income from funding fees is also considerable.$BTC, $ETH, and $LINK can represent three different perspectives: BTC reflects the overall market trend, ETH reflects the capital in the public chain ecosystem, and LINK reflects the capital in the oracle infrastructure sector. Observing these three coins together provides better insight into whether the underlying infrastructure sector is attracting capital, rather than just focusing on the price fluctuations of a single coin.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $LINK
The long positions I hold are still untouched; today I'm focusing on the structure, not the price.
The long-short ratio is 2.02, with 70% of accounts going long, supported by 180 million in volume, and no divergence between volume and price.
If it holds above 8.9, it's stable; if it falls back to 8.7, the structure needs to be reassessed. $LINK
$LINK The $85,000 sell wall was completely eaten through and withdrawn by buyers, pushing the BTC perpetual annualized rate on OKX down to 1.4%
This morning, the BTC perpetual rate on OKX was only 0.0013%, with the annualized cost squeezed down to 1.4%. After the $85,000 sell wall was fully withdrawn last night, today's positions are first watching turnover around $84,700. Glassnode just tweeted that buyers have been steadily pushing up this week, gradually eating through the thick sell orders above, and the remaining short orders were simply all withdrawn.
I just checked the OKX contracts page. Out of the $7.784 billion perpetual positions across the platform, BTC alone accounts for $3.001 billion, and ETH takes $1.729 billion. The altcoin-to-BTC position ratio stands at 1.018, indicating that almost all leverage in the market is concentrated on BTC, with funds not running wild into altcoins. Ethereum's rate is 0.0041%, which is twice as high as Bitcoin's.
The overall market fear and greed index is at 72, indicating greed. Bitcoin accounts for 58.56% of the total $2.9 trillion market cap. Although the sell orders above have been fully withdrawn, the 0.0013% rate shows that no one in the market is borrowing money to chase higher prices; the buying mainly comes from spot gradually absorbing the supply. I personally locked in my spot holdings early in the session and have no open orders in the contract account. I will only start trading contracts when spot turnover expands around $84,700.Regular holders do not need to take any action for the Sepolia upgrade transfer or authorization
The Glamsterdam activation on October 6 occurred on the Sepolia testnet, and the official statement is very clear: regular mainnet users and $ETH holders do not need to take any action. Those who need to prepare are the operators of Sepolia nodes or validators, who must upgrade their execution layer and consensus layer clients before the activation. Any message that asks for transfers, connecting to unfamiliar websites, or signing authorizations under the pretext of "upgrade migration," "asset mapping," or "claiming new coins" does not align with the normal network upgrade process. The Ethereum upgrade is a clear choice by nodes to adopt new rules, not holders moving assets to new contracts. $ETH on the mainnet will not become invalid just because the testnet reaches a certain slot, nor is there a so-called new version that must be exchanged. The more attention a technical event receives, the more phishers like to exploit time pressure to induce compliance. The simplest criterion is: if an operation claims it can protect your $ETH but requires you to first give up signing rights or transfer assets, it is not solving an upgrade issue but creating asset risk.
When encountering countdown pressure, stop first, then verify official announcements, and don’t let urgency replace verification.The US non-farm payroll data to be released tonight is the most critical market catalyst in the crypto space these days, directly determining whether prices will rise or fall next. Simply put, it shows how many people in the US started working last month. This number will affect whether the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, whether the money supply increases or decreases, and naturally, crypto prices will follow accordingly.
Currently, the market generally expects an increase of 90,000 jobs, nearly half less than last month's 162,000, which means everyone has already implicitly assumed "employment is weak, rate cuts can continue." The current high crypto prices have already priced in this expectation.
There are three scenarios to consider for market impact:
If the data significantly exceeds expectations, with an increase above 120,000, it means employment is much stronger than anticipated, so the Federal Reserve won't rush to cut rates. The US dollar will strengthen, and the crypto market will likely face pressure and pull back, with some of the previous gains giving way. Taking short positions in contracts would be safer.
If the data is between 70,000 and 100,000, basically meeting expectations with no surprises or shocks, the market will continue to oscillate at the current high levels. For contracts, use small positions to sell high and buy low, and avoid blindly chasing a single direction.
If the data is significantly below expectations, with an increase below 50,000, it means employment is cooling faster than expected, rate cut expectations will heat up again, the US dollar will weaken, and the crypto market will likely surge accordingly, possibly even retesting previous highs. Taking long positions in contracts is preferable. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The converging triangle has been compressed to the limit; don't rush to take sides before the Nonfarm Payrolls
BTC has formed a converging triangle, watched for three days, narrowing more and more. Originally thought it would rebound near 85200 and then fall back, oscillating to find direction, but it stubbornly stayed around 83500. The prolonged shakeout makes one wonder: have we underestimated its strength?
ETH is even more conflicted. After BTC had nine consecutive days of net inflows, it turned to net outflows on September 30, and ETH also flowed out on the same day. Institutions seem to be treating them differently: one as gold to buy, the other as tech stocks to sell. Logically, ETH should be weaker, but it can't fall below around 2700 and is even a bit stronger than BTC today. Institutions are voting with their feet, yet the market remains resilient as if not abandoned. In this mismatch, who is right or wrong in the end is uncertain.
At times like this, don't take sides; wait for the triangle to break on its own. Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 PM tomorrow night will likely be the trigger. The quietest moment of a converging triangle is often the night before it breaks; whichever side it breaks to will lead to a big move. Don't bet on direction during the contraction phase; follow after the breakout, which is much safer than guessing strength in the middle.
The above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出

#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 BTC 84600: Bears just entered, and the dog whales are pumping the price?
After enduring all day, finally seeing a breakthrough. From yesterday's drop near 83000 to now back at 84600, this round of shakeout was indeed fierce. The early session once dropped to 83123, bulls were just shaken out, then reversed with three consecutive bullish candles pulling back. Now the price has stood back above MA5 84362, MA10 84217, MA20 84015, and the short-term bullish alignment is re-established.
On the news front, trader Doctor Profit revealed having shorted BTC and liquidated altcoins. Such bearish signals, once released, often easily turn into fuel for a short squeeze. But caution is still needed: BTC just broke above 85000 then pulled back; selling pressure around 85000–85500 remains heavy, and the rebound volume is not yet fully confirmed.
Tonight's plan is simple: first target 85000, just over 300 points from the current price; if it holds, then look toward 85500; if it falls back below 84000, reduce risk first. At this position, do not chase emotions, only follow the structure.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 This load-bearing column has already developed stress cracks; only a fool would believe the grand skyscrapers in the renderings.
Just after putting down the gray knife in my hand, I glanced at the current $XRP market hovering at 1.4871. The lower Bollinger band at 1.4794 is being heavily tested by downward pressure, like pouring concrete into a mold that hasn't dried yet—it's at risk of breaking at any moment.
But I noticed my own "anchoring effect" at work, my mind fixated on the recent highs from a few days ago, almost mistaking the shoddy, false rebound for a solid base that had fully hardened. Loss aversion nearly made me defy the construction blueprint, trying to stubbornly resist this settlement.
I must use the hammer of reason to shatter this wishful thinking; the foundation must be laid before the scaffolding is built. RSI at 44.4 hasn't bottomed out yet; if the concrete grade isn't sufficient, the topping can't be done prematurely.
- Target: $XRP 🟢
- Entry: 1.4750 - 1.4880
- TP1: 1.5050
- TP2: 1.5200
- SL: 1.4550
The level won't lie; if the settlement exceeds the safety threshold, the load-bearing wall will collapse immediately.🏗️
#CoinMoveAlertAnother "payment giant + stablecoin" combination has landed:
Payment processor Fiserv's digital asset platform has officially launched for financial institution clients. The first case is the Roughrider Coin, a USD-backed stablecoin issued by a North Dakota bank—VersaBank is responsible for issuance custody and reserves, Fireblocks provides the infrastructure, transactions run on Solana, and it will connect to Fiserv's payment network.
This is a continuation of the same trend line as the previous Stripe OUSD case: stablecoins are evolving from "trading tools within crypto exchanges" to "payment rails within the traditional banking system."
The list of participants is very representative—a regional bank issuing the coin, a payment giant providing the distribution channel, and a crypto infrastructure company handling the backend; the division of labor has become specialized.
Notably, it chose to run transactions on Solana.
These kinds of "bank-issued, payment company-distributed" stablecoins are increasingly favoring high-throughput, low-fee public blockchains, which will make the competition over "which chain supports real-world payments" more concrete. Big Brother Maji's $150 million portfolio turns warmer, original strategy continues execution📈$BTC $ETH $HYPE
Position snapshot: Total nominal exposure about $150 million, significantly recovered compared to previous period. Mainstream coin profits provide a floor, HYPE losses rapidly narrowing, overall entering a recovery phase.
Breakdown:
▪️BTC｜369 coins, 40X full position
Slightly increased from before, entry price 83799.60, unrealized profit about +53,100 U. Liquidation price 70930.78, still some buffer from current price, continues to act as portfolio stabilizer🪨
▪️ETH｜35,000 coins, 25X full position
Currently the largest profit source, unrealized profit about +158,000 U. Cost 2675.61, price above cost. As long as ETH does not experience a deep drop, portfolio confidence remains✨
▪️HYPE｜206,000 coins, 10X full position
Still the only unrealized loss item, but loss reduced from over 800,000 U to about -136,200 U, significant recovery. Base position not cut, slightly increased, betting on subsequent rebound🎯
Overall approach: Maintain heavy long-term positions, do not easily clear base positions due to short-term fluctuations, wait for trend realization.
⚠️Community position review only, not investment advice. High leverage risk is extremely high, do not blindly follow.
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Sisters, today I really got a lesson from $ZEC……
Shorting it, it stubbornly pushed up;
Just switched to going long, and it immediately plunged.
Is this trading, or participating in $ZEC's "reverse multiple-choice test"?
Live trading record｜Daily account fluctuation 132.94%
I had been holding a short position on ZEC for a while, and the market was sluggishly moving up, making the short position increasingly painful.
Then I thought:
"Since it won't go down, I'll switch direction and try to catch a rebound."
But as soon as I took the long position——
Bang! It directly crashed down.
On the 15-minute chart, $ZEC once dropped near 1305, current price about 1336, a short-term drop of over 7%.
My long position average price is around 1430, with 20x leverage, the account pressure instantly maxed out.
The most heartbreaking thing is not the loss.
But that feeling:
You just changed direction, and the market immediately tells you——
"Congratulations, you chose wrong."
What's even more interesting is that under the same market conditions, ETH long positions still have floating profits.
What really made me review this time is not "whether ZEC can still rise," but:
Why, knowing that macro data is approaching and altcoin liquidity is weak, did I still choose to stubbornly catch a rebound at this position?
Oversold ≠ guaranteed rebound.
Falling a lot ≠ bottomed out.
Short-term repair ≠ trend reversal.
Especially for coins like $ZEC with large volatility, once liquidity shrinks, price fluctuations may be further amplified. ETH surged 70.8% in Q3, but don’t rush to chase it
Ethereum rose 70.8% in Q3, climbing from about $1570 to around $2680, marking its strongest quarterly performance since 2016, even surpassing last year’s Q3 gain of approximately 66.5%.
Bitcoin rose 42.71% over the same period, its best Q3 since 2017, but still lagged behind ETH. The ETH/BTC ratio increased about 19% this quarter, showing clear investor preference for the asset that had a larger prior decline. Spot ETH ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of about $3.1 billion in Q3, while BTC ETFs had about $6.5 billion.
But don’t get overly excited. Despite the big rally, ETH is still down about 9% from the start of the year and remains far from its all-time high of $4950 in August 2025. Historical data shows ETH’s median Q4 gain is only 0.36%; after a strong rebound in Q3, Q4 often faces profit-taking pressure.
The 70.8% gain is already on the books. Whether it can continue leading next quarter depends on two key points: whether ETF inflows persist and whether the ETH/BTC ratio can maintain its strength. Chasing with high leverage is not cost-effective in terms of risk-reward.
The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Bitcoin is "stalling" at a high level above 80,000, while the A-share market doesn't rest during the holiday; it's time to reduce leverage first.
On the second day of the holiday, a special reminder to friends holding coins and US stocks: you are celebrating, but the market is not.
Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level around 83,000 to 85,000 USD.
After previously reaching the 8-month high of 87,400, it has retreated and has yet to break through effectively.
Ethereum is consolidating at a similar high level (based on your exchange's real-time quotes; liquidity is thin during the holiday, so do not speculate on intraday prices).
On-chain risk signals have not been cleared.
Short-term holders' unrealized profit rate remains at about 33%, a 21-month high, and the "bull market index" is near 90 points.
On the other hand, with everyone in floating profit, any negative news could trigger concentrated profit-taking.
And there are plenty of negative catalysts during the holiday.
US Treasury yields are at a 24-year high, oil prices have returned to 102, the Middle East situation is unsettled, and non-farm payroll data is yet to be released.
Crypto markets operate 24/7 and may experience intense volatility while you are traveling, dining, or sleeping.
Holding coins over the holiday is fine, but be sure to do three things: reduce leverage, set stop losses, and avoid heavy positions betting on direction during the holiday.
Having a stable long holiday is much more valuable than chasing an uncertain swing.Brent crude surged 4.4% back to 102, the 40 million barrel strategic reserve only effective for one day
The day before yesterday praised the strategic reserve for immediate effect, yesterday oil prices slapped back.
Eastern US October 1 international oil prices rebounded significantly
WTI November contract rose 2.71% to $92.87
Brent new front-month December contract surged 4.37% to $102.31
(Brent has switched from November to December, don’t directly compare it with the previous day’s November price of 103.53)
This means the US "swap release of 40 million barrels SPR" suppression basically only lasted one day
The market quickly refocused on the old supply-side issues: Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz, diesel export controls
As long as the geopolitical fuse isn’t removed, releasing reserves is more like covering a raging fire with a wet blanket, it won’t extinguish it
Not good news for those holding positions over the holiday
Oil prices returning to the 90–103 range will continue to support inflation stickiness, which in turn limits the Fed’s room to pivot dovish
This also explains why US Treasury yields are so stubborn
If oil prices don’t fall, global risk assets can’t rally freely, and post-holiday openings will still depend on the Middle East’s situation #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Review of the market on the 1st and 2nd:
PCE positive news landed, $BTC BTC surged overnight from 9.30-10.1 to 85577. But the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 20-year high at 5.33%, leading to direct profit-taking and a rapid price pullback.
On the 1st, the high and low were 85577~82961, closing at 83600. ETF saw slight inflows, but Grayscale kept selling, showing clear institutional divergence.
On the 2nd, it oscillated between 83000-84500. US Treasury yields slightly retreated but remained high.
ETF funds supported the bottom, making deep drops difficult; however, with US Treasury pressure present, rebounds are hard to sustain and prone to being crushed upon any rise.
Currently, it's a range-bound oscillation, with positive news only causing short-term pulse moves. No need to obsess over candlesticks; the key is whether US Treasury yields can turn downward.
Do you think US Treasury yields will continue to surge?AI trading is still far off, but AI strategies are already very close. I've always been cautious about handing over order placement entirely to a black box—the model can be a good engineer but not a good prophet, and losses are hard to trace back. Let's think differently: let AI help you build tools, not place bets for you. I personally tested an on-chain strategy tool managing the Uniswap V3 USDT-BTCB pool on BSC: up to 80% balance on both sides, price range ±10% around the current price, and a maximum of 3 rebalances per day, all without writing a single line of code. It covers Swap/LP/lending, is multi-chain, non-custodial, with exportable code for review, excels at minute-level and above yield rotation and fee arbitrage, but is not good at high-frequency or front-running. Its positioning is very clear: a one-person on-chain hedge fund. $ETH $UNIThe AI star company Anthropic preparing for an IPO is currently a hot topic in the Web3 community.
Many people overlook one point: crypto platforms have already launched Anthropic's Pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts, and a lot of capital is betting on its listing valuation.
If Anthropic's IPO performs spectacularly, there will be two chain reactions:
1. Market AI narrative sentiment will heat up, AI concept crypto tokens will see short-term popularity, attracting speculative capital inflows;
2. Institutional funds will make new choices: some capital will withdraw from pure narrative AI crypto tokens and directly allocate to real AI enterprise stocks in the US market, squeezing out AI small coins without actual products.
But the underlying logic of the overall crypto market will not be changed by the IPO of a single AI company. US dollar liquidity and regulatory policies remain dominant.
Do you think that after Anthropic officially goes public, AI sector crypto tokens will experience a rally, or will they weaken due to capital being diverted to US AI stocks?
#Web3 #Crypto #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 When tokenized government bonds yield high returns, they will draw DeFi funds and also bring new collateral.
When low-risk off-chain assets offer attractive yields, some funds will shift from lending and liquidity pools within the $ETH ecosystem to tokenized government bonds. This compresses deposits and yields for certain protocols but also introduces more stable collateral and valuation bases to the on-chain market.
The impact is not simply bearish or bullish; it depends on whether these assets can be safely composable on-chain. If they can only be held in a closed manner, they act more like a capital outflow; if they can participate in lending, settlement, and margin systems within compliance boundaries, they will expand the asset scope of the entire on-chain finance.
However, collateral quality also depends on redemption times and trading sessions. On-chain markets operate 24/7, but the underlying government bond markets have business hours, and price and liquidity gaps may appear on weekends or during stress periods. If protocols are designed assuming instant redemption is always possible, they will underestimate mismatch risks.
The gap between 24/7 on-chain liquidity and scheduled off-chain settlement is precisely the risk source that makes this type of collateral most easily underestimated.
Traditional yields entering Ethereum are not just competing for funds but may also become the foundation for the next layer of applications.Years ago, an old lady bought three color TVs and hid them under the bed
Afraid that her son wouldn't be able to afford one when he got married
At that time, color TVs kept rising in price
The reasoning behind this is the same
Recognize the trend: Bitcoin has only 21 million coins, and facing inflationary fiat currency, the long-term trend can only be upward. The painful truth is, in the next bear market, we might never see Bitcoin below 100,000 again$BTC is stuck near $84K, but the leverage picture is changing
OI is falling while funding stays positive but relatively neutral, suggesting some leverage is being flushed
BTC pushed toward $85.5K after the PCE data but failed to hold
The $85K–$85.5K zone remains key resistance, while $82.5K is the first major support
Taker buy/sell is below 1, showing sellers remain active. Watching $85.5K vs $82.5K
📊 I’m waiting for confirmation rather than chasing either side. Key levels first.The 10-year yield surged intraday to 5.348%, hitting a 24-year high, but the Fed Vice Chair's remark pushed it back down
On the first night of the holiday, global asset controls were held tightly by U.S. Treasuries.
On October 1st Eastern Time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose intraday by 4 basis points to 5.348%
Breaking the 2007 high, reaching the highest level since 2002, with the 30-year yield also hitting multi-year highs
The stock market was suppressed by this yield all morning, unable to rally
The turning point came with Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's speech
He acknowledged "inflation has been too high for too long, with risks of sustained elevated levels"
But also emphasized the need to "carefully assess future data and more time to judge" before deciding the next step
The market interpreted the latter as "no rush to raise rates in October"
The effect was immediate
U.S. Treasury yields plunged from highs, and the three major U.S. stock indices turned positive by the close
According to media estimates, market bets on a rate hike in October fell from nearly 70% to about 50%
This is the current reality: data and officials' statements can cause repeated repricing within a day
The sword of high interest rates still hangs, but the short-term reins have loosened a bit
The real judge before the post-holiday open will be the nonfarm payroll data, which is more decisive than any speechMarket fluctuations are uncontrollable; what you can truly control are your own "desires, attachments, greed, and restraint."
Everything I lose is never truly mine. Everything I seek is what traps me. Everything I cling to is what burdens me. Everything I am greedy for is what weighs me down. All things serve me, but I do not belong to them. Those who know contentment are not disgraced; those who know restraint are not endangered; by doing nothing, nothing is left undone.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are people who know when not to act. To gain and to let go; to advance and to retreat; knowing when to stop is true freedom.
In the past 12 hours, $BTC has fluctuated repeatedly around $84,000. Yesterday, the cooling PCE briefly pushed BTC up to $85,500, but the persistently high U.S. Treasury yields suppressed risk appetite again, and gains were subsequently given back. ETH is around $2,690, generally following BTC’s movement, with altcoins still showing clear divergence. In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones closed slightly higher, but the 10-year Treasury yield once approached 5.34% before falling back to about 5.23%. The market is still waiting for the October 2 nonfarm payrolls to provide the next direction.
Today’s real variable is not just the nonfarm number itself, but whether the employment data will change the market’s judgment on future interest rates.
You can have the market, but you cannot possess it; you can pursue profits, but you cannot be obsessed. A true master does not try to capture every rise fully but knows when to hold, when to release, and when to stop.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The statement "I've done it many times before, so I can do it this time too" only talks about the successful attempts. The risk with early-stage projects is that the vast majority either go to zero or stall, and the proportion that actually take off is extremely low. When you see such a preview, first think clearly about how much loss you can bear before deciding whether to follow along.🏦 BTC spot, 12 ETF funds all with no net inflow, single-day net outflow of $149 million
ETH and SOL ETFs also turned to net outflows, institutional funds collectively "hit the brakes"
BTC stands above 84,000, who is still buying the dip?
📊 Latest capital flow (SoSoValue):
· BTC ETF: net outflow of $149 million｜Fidelity FBTC -$126 million, BITB -$13.63 million
· ETH ETF: net outflow of $59.58 million｜10 funds with no net inflow, outflow for 2 consecutive days
· SOL ETF: net outflow of $5.91 million on the latest trading day｜outflow for 2 consecutive days, cumulative net inflow still about $1.6 billion
· ZEC ETF: net outflow of $30.25 million the previous day
📍 My interpretation:
· BTC price is rising, but ETFs are flowing out; this rebound seems more driven by contract leverage rather than spot institutions buying
· Single-day outflow does not mean a trend reversal; the previous 9-day cumulative inflow was about $3 billion
🎯 Viewpoint: Tonight's non-farm payrolls will set the tone. If ETFs continue to outflow for multiple days and BTC falls back below 83,346, caution should be heightened.
Do you think this outflow is temporary or a signal of trend reversal?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 The non-farm payroll blind box opens tonight, I'll slip away first out of respect!
Good morning to all genius traders! Woke up feeling pretty good!
My 100x full position long on ETH and BTC shows a floating profit of 25% on ETH and 68% on BTC. It looks great on the surface, but inside I'm really anxious. The moving averages on the 15-minute chart are all tightly converged, tighter than 502 glue, clearly the eerie calm before the storm, with bulls and bears both using magnifying glasses to find direction.
Tonight at 20:30 is the non-farm payroll release, with expectations ranging from 35,000 to 180,000 — such a huge range it could fit a whole cow! This isn't economic data, it's pure blind box opening. Citibank is bullish up to 3028, which sounds like sweet talk long-term, but with 100x leverage, I’m afraid I might not even see the next minute, let alone tonight. If it beats expectations, I'll be lining up on the rooftop; if it falls short, I'll take off on the spot. This is not trading, it's gambling with life.
As a seasoned veteran trader, my survival rule is simple: never stand under a dangerous wall, and never be fuel for a forced liquidation engine. Before the data release, I plan to run first out of respect, reducing positions to stay safe. Stop losses must be firmly set at 2672 and 82500.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The latest market report from Coinbase points out that the selling pressure to realize profits at BTC's high levels has significantly increased, with profit-taking reaching the peak for the year. Meanwhile, new buying on both spot and futures sides has weakened simultaneously, signaling a cooling in market demand.
Personal view
This set of data is very alarming. After a sustained rise, short-term traders have substantial paper profits and tend to take profits as soon as the market fluctuates, continuously releasing selling pressure. More critically, the decline in new demand means the market is purely relying on existing funds to compete, lacking fresh capital to take over, which will greatly reduce the momentum for further upward movement.
However, it is not necessary to directly conclude a trend reversal. Long-term ETF funds are still continuously flowing in, and long-term holders have not sold off massively. This is short-term profit-taking, not a large-scale capital flight.
The market has now entered a phase of long-short competition, with more high-level fluctuations and increased volatility. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again, combined with concentrated profit-taking, it could easily trigger a rapid correction.
In trading, do not continue to chase longs in contracts; try to reduce leverage at high levels and set stop losses. Do not rely solely on ETF funds and ignore on-chain profit-taking signals. Key points to watch going forward: whether selling pressure continues to expand and whether new buying can return to support.Brothers, SNDK closed at 1787, up 2.75%, Micron's earnings gave a strong boost to the NAND sector
$SNDK $1,787.69
SanDisk closed up 2.75% on Thursday at $1,787.69, hitting an intraday high of $1,802, with a trading volume of about $16.3 billion. From the September 22 high of $1,909, the pullback has narrowed to about 6%
Micron's earnings ignite the storage sector, Citi reiterates $2,100 target price
Micron's Q4 results exceeded expectations, NAND revenue surged 42% quarter-over-quarter, prices rose about 30%, far exceeding the market expectation of 20%. Micron management clearly stated that "over 75% of 2027 output is already locked in," and the industry supply-demand environment is "very healthy"
Citi reiterates SNDK "Buy" rating and $2,100 target price, with the core logic that NAND supply tightness may continue into 2028, and AI data centers shifting KV Cache to SSD applications will continue to drive demand. Bernstein maintains "Outperform" rating and $3,000 target price, emphasizing that SNDK has signed 8 long-term contracts locking in a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion
Key data: Analyst consensus target price is $2,137, about 20% upside from current levels. The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the next catalyst.
Let's discuss in the comments, can Micron's earnings push SNDK back to 1900?👇
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 ZEC dropped from the high of 1695 directly down to around 1300, wiping out half a month's gains in just a few days.
Looking at charts across several timeframes, the 15-minute MACD just formed a golden cross, with the green bars turning red, indicating a short-term rebound possibility. However, the 1-hour chart still shows green bars, and the 4-hour and daily charts are even worse, with death crosses pointing down and expanding green bars. Small timeframes are recovering, but the larger ones are still falling, so don't rush to call the bottom.
Below, 1305 was yesterday's low and a short-term critical level. If it breaks, it will likely seek support around 1200. On the upside, watch the 1336 MA10; only if it holds above that can it catch a breather. Beyond that is the major resistance at 1420, which can't be passed without volume.
After such a drop, shorting again risks getting caught by a rebound, and bottom fishing isn't urgent either. Wait for at least a 1-hour golden cross or a decent daily candle signaling a stop to the decline before acting. In this market, it's better to miss out than to make a wrong move.
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 $ZEC
Personal review, not investment advice10-2 ETH&BTC
【Market】: Volatile
【High points】: 2715--2745--2750--2777--2800---2827
【Low points】: 2684--2650--2638--2620--2600---2585
Minor resistance: 2715 2720 2745
Minor support: 2680 2650 2638
Range oscillation between 2715--2684, H1 level wedge pattern waiting for breakout;
Focus on the impact of the non-farm payroll data tonight
Aggressive long: Break above 2680
Conservative long: Around 2640
Aggressive short: Around 2745--2750
Conservative short: Around 2777
Note: The market has been oscillating for too long, whether long or short, always use stop-loss.NEAR's recent drop is its own issue. Since the high on 9/28, it has fallen 11%, while BTC and ETH have both slightly risen during the same period. Unlocking, contract activity, delisting, and burning do not align.
First, the ETF bullish momentum was realized. From 9/20 to 9/28, it rose from 3.40 to 5.58, a 64% increase in 8 days. This was driven by listing on Hyperliquid spot, Ondo US stock tokens, Bitwise's ETF application, and the NYSE approval on 9/27. The peak came about 9 hours after approval, even a day before the official listing. On 10/1 at 14:00, it surged again to 5.54 but did not surpass the previous high. By 9 PM, it had declined 7% without new news. ETF inflows continued but dropped from $35.5 million on 9/29 to about $9 million on 10/1.
The final blow was the theft of about $3.8 million in NEAR Intents. On 10/1 at 20:53, the official announcement came; at 21:02 the sell-off started, dropping from 5.10 to 4.74 in 6 minutes, a 7% fall. Contract trading volume that hour was about 7 times normal. The loss was only USDT on BSC; the official team promised compensation, and the protocol and token itself were unaffected. It then rebounded to 5.0 and has now returned near 4.8.
The impact is now smaller; a small stop-loss long position can be taken, with profit-taking at the previous high Here’s a refined version with a tone more like a Chinese financial news account combined with a crypto influencer’s style, adding some narrative and value insights:
BTC, ETH, and SOL: Three Distinct Positions
🚨 $BTC vs $ETH vs $SOL: Three Paths, Three Core Values
If we view the entire crypto industry as a comprehensive financial and application ecosystem, then BTC, ETH, and SOL are not simply competing over "who gains more," but each plays a unique role.
₿ $BTC | Digital Scarce Asset The core logic is scarcity and value storage. With a fixed issuance mechanism, BTC is closer to a digital monetary asset. Market focus is more on capital inflows, institutional allocation, and macro liquidity changes.
◆ $ETH | On-Chain Financial Infrastructure Ethereum acts as the foundational platform for the on-chain economy. DeFi, stablecoins, staking, Layer 2 solutions, and various on-chain applications all revolve around its ecosystem. Its core strength lies in the scale of its ecosystem and the depth of its financial applications.
⚡ $SOL | High-Performance On-Chain Execution Platform Solana emphasizes speed, low cost, and high throughput, making it suitable for high-frequency trading, DeFi, payments, and extensive on-chain interactions. Compared to "value storage," it highlights on-chain activity and execution efficiency.
📌 Therefore, BTC, ETH, and SOL are not three answers to the same question.
BTC leans more toward asset attributes,
ETH leans toward financial and application infrastructure,
SOL leans toward high-performance on-chain execution. The 16.88 million sell orders at 90K are not particularly large, but combined with the accumulation from 91K to 97K, the overall resistance is quite strong. This kind of distribution usually indicates that funds are gradually positioning short orders, or that previously trapped positions are waiting to be freed.
#BTC If it can break through 88K with volume, the first target is 90K. But the selling pressure above 90K is more concentrated, which will be the real test.A key data point connecting AI and macro: Tech giants' AI-related borrowing this year has reached $220 billion, more than double last year — including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle (according to Reuters). This wave of bond issuance is pushing U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2002.
The logic chain is: AI arms race → giants need massive capital expenditure → large-scale bond issuance → bond supply increases → yields are pushed higher. This is the same variable mentioned in Qin Ba's previous macro analysis about "AI big tech bond issuance being irreversible."
Why should crypto care about U.S. Treasury yields? Because it is almost the denominator for the valuation of all risk assets. The higher the yield, the greater the opportunity cost of holding risk assets, and the more suppressed their valuations become. So whether "AI will squeeze crypto" is not only about competing for funds and talent but also indirectly affects crypto's funding through the bond market chain. NEAR's current price is around 2.5, still far from the 2024 high of over 9 dollars. If the "crash" here refers to a further drop from the current position, it first needs to be confirmed that it breaks below the recent support level. The recent low is between 2.3 and 2.4; only if it breaks this can acceleration be discussed.
The expression "million-dollar short position" packages the result of a single trade as predictive ability. Many people profit from shorting, but losing trades are rarely exposed. The win rate depends on long-term records, not a single success.
NEAR's fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated. Its mainnet activity, developer data, and ecosystem projects are all within normal ranges. If the price weakens, a more likely reason is a decline in overall market risk appetite, with funds concentrating on mainstream coins rather than an issue with NEAR itself.
From a trading perspective, if NEAR breaks below 2.3, the next support level is around 2.0. If it holds 2.3, a short-term rebound is possible. The direction depends on the overall market, not just NEAR alone.On-chain data shows no new dominant buying pressure; the position of MOVR here is purely a liquidation game.
At dawn, there was an active sell order split from around 2.88, but it didn't continue to push down, more like testing liquidity near the long stop-loss pool between 2.75 and 2.85 below.
Just turned the car into a back street to stop and grabbed a quick bite of cold food, the urging call is still buzzing, eyes can only focus on the order book.
The short liquidation above 3.15 to 3.25 is thicker than below, indicating stronger short squeeze elasticity, but the premise is to hold above 3.0.
Currently stuck at 2.914 in the middle, EMA resistance not broken, MACD volume bars continue to shrink, no signal of bulls adding positions.
Operationally, wait for a pullback to 2.82 to 2.86 to lightly buy longs; stop loss immediately if it breaks below 2.79. First take profit target is 3.05; after breaking 3.05, look towards 3.18 to 3.22.
If volume breaks below 3.0, chase with half position. This trade is not shorting, only taking upward liquidation.
$MOVR
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
@OKX星球 The worse the market looks, the more you need to stay steady
$BTC is stuck at the 85,000 threshold and can't get through, $ETH barely holds at the 2,700 edge, $SOL is trapped around 118, neither up nor down — it’s really frustrating to watch. $OKB has dropped the most fiercely, with long positions' stop-loss orders being triggered one after another, the market is so green it makes you want to shut down your computer.
But what I want to say is: this drop has a lot of fluff.
It's not a fundamental collapse, it's a panic in sentiment. Before data releases, big funds reduced exposure, short-term chips were cashed out, and once key levels broke, stop-loss orders triggered in chains. These three forces combined often create a pit far more exaggerated than the real selling pressure.
Sentiment pits and trend turning points are two completely different things. The former can be repaired, the latter is deadly. Right now, it’s clearly the former.
Regarding US Treasuries, don’t be scared by 5.6%.
The 30-year yield has indeed hit the highest since 2002, but note one detail: when $BTC surged to 85,000, it was precisely when inflation data briefly calmed the market, then bond sell-offs dragged it back. What does this mean? The interest rate pressure on crypto is a reflex of sentiment, not a systemic withdrawal of capital.
Once the narrative of interest rates peaking switches, the recovery speed of risk assets will be faster than most expect. The question now isn’t "if it will switch," but "when it will switch."
Nonfarm payrolls are the real card.
In the prediction market, the probability of September nonfarm exceeding 90,000 is at 60%, and the chance of breaking 100,000 is nearly 50/50. But Wall Street investment banks have wildly divergent expectations — Goldman Sachs sees 80,000, while Bank of America and Deutsche Bank only expect 60,000.
This expectation gap itself is an opportunity. If data lands between 60,000 and 90,000, the market will interpret it as "cooling employment but no collapse," which suppresses rate hike expectations; if it’s above 100,000, there will be short-term shocks, but the bad news landing is better than uncertainty.
What annoys me most are those who panic sell before the data even comes out. Neither nonfarm nor PCE data have been revealed yet, and it’s too early to declare the market dead.
Some practical points.
$BTC has relatively solid support around 82,500. If bulls can hold there and continue to raise the lows, the structure remains intact. $SOL has a dense stop-loss zone near 116; breaking it might trigger another spike, but depth below 113.68 is limited.
Volume-driven sell-offs are sometimes just emotional venting; once vented, the market should repair. Before data lands, preserving capital and staying calm is far more important than holding positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 How will Bitcoin and Ethereum respond to the MACD divergence adjustment?
$ETH, $ETH currently show almost identical trends, with Ethereum possibly being slightly stronger. The MACD is currently in a divergence state. Based on market analysis, it is highly likely to maintain a high-level range-bound consolidation to resolve the MACD divergence.
There may be an initial sell-off effect when the MACD adjustment nears its end. Key support levels to watch are Bitcoin at 82000 and Ethereum at 2540. These two levels are quite important; holding them could trigger the next wave of upward momentum.
Additionally, with the October rate hike expectations sharply declining, the market currently remains optimistic about risk support. A significant rate hike cycle in the future can be considered unlikely, and the US-Iran relations are easing. Although the negotiation process is somewhat drawn out, I believe it will come to a stop.
I believe Bitcoin and Ethereum will have better opportunities for upward movement in the future.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $14.7 million, of which 53% comes from the deployment on Robinhood Chain.
My first reaction was that Uniswap has finally found a new source of revenue.
But traders see it differently.
Others see the "largest source of income," I see "walking on one leg."
One chain contributing more than half of the income sounds impressive, but it's actually quite risky.
If the heat on Robinhood cools down one day, or if they switch to another DEX, that 53% could disappear just like that.
High revenue concentration is a short-term benefit but a long-term risk.
To put it plainly, Uniswap now relies a bit like a business propped up by one major client.
I’m not keen on chasing $UNI this round.
It’s not that I’m pessimistic, but this kind of structural dependency means we have to wait until it grows a few more legs.
As an experienced trader, what I fear most is mistaking "temporarily strong" for "always strong."
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $UNI #BTC trader Doctor Profit indeed publicly stated he is shorting. He opened #BTC short positions around 86,200 and set additional shorts between 86,500 and 89,500, expecting a pullback to 79,000. At the same time, he liquidated altcoin positions, selling ONDO with a 73% profit and exiting HBAR and #XRP.
This is a trader with a public record, expressing a clear directional judgment. This is different from “insiders secretly selling.” He made an active choice based on an overheated market and excessive altcoin leverage, not a passive exit.
Paying attention to his position changes is more useful than listening to “what they know.”Nonfarm payrolls tonight at 20:30, don't make any rash moves.
Expected new jobs: 84,000, previous value: 162,000, unemployment rate still at 4.1%. But the forecast range is from 35,000 to 180,000, indicating even institutions are uncertain. This week's ADP and initial claims data were both strong, with small nonfarm at 90,000 exceeding expectations, initial claims at 196,000 lower than last month, so the job market doesn't look that bad.
For the crypto space, the logic is simple: data beats expectations → rate hike expectations warm up → USD strengthens → BTC/ETH under pressure; data disappoints → rate hike expectations cool down → liquidity expectations improve → positive for risk assets. But don't forget one thing—tonight is Friday, liquidity is thin, so spikes will be larger than usual, and both long and short squeezes are normal.
My approach: no adding positions before the data release, for existing positions either widen stop losses or reduce positions directly. After the 20:30 data release, see where the first spike goes, don't rush to chase. On nights like this, controlling your hands is more important than guessing the direction. This is not advice; tonight I will also watch lightly. $BTC $ETH The geopolitical tension lingers, but what truly chokes the crypto market is the oil price. Brent crude has risen above $103, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.33%, a new high since 2002. This round of rate hikes is directly linked to conflicts involving Iran. High oil prices mean inflation clouds are hard to dissipate, and monetary easing space is tightly constrained. Bitcoin just surged to $85,000 on PCE coming in below expectations, but if the situation escalates again and oil prices rise further, the foundation of the rebound will weaken. History has given the answer: after airstrikes, Bitcoin fell 3.2% within hours, and Ethereum dropped 7.7%—in the face of war, the crypto market remains a risky asset. $BTC $ETHBro, today there's a piece of data that's a hundred times more important than the price itself: the market cap dominance of the crypto market leader has fallen below 60%.
If you're not familiar, you might not feel it, so let me translate it for you: In the past few years, whenever this dominance drops, it means money starts flowing out from the big boss, flowing to whom? To high-volatility altcoins like Dogecoin. Historically, every alt season started right after this dominance broke a key threshold, without exception.
When I saw this data at noon, I was in line buying jianbing guozi (Chinese crepes), almost forgot to add the egg. Think about it, with so much water in the pool, when the sluice gate loosens a bit, who gets the water first? It's the one with the biggest name and the strongest community base in the pool. Among altcoins, who can compare to Doge in fame and consensus?
After waiting almost a year for alt season, the door hinge is already creaking. While others are still hesitating if it's just an illusion, I only know one thing: every time the door opens, Doge is the first to rush out.
Hold tight, this wave is coming for us. $DOGE ISM 54.5, slightly down from the previous 54.6, below the expected 55. It's 1.5 points away from 56.
This 1.5-point gap is harder to close than going from 56 to 60. The manufacturing sector's prosperity is shifting from expansion to acceleration, which requires sustained improvement in demand, not something a single month's data can achieve.
#ETH is around 2695, with the monthly 50 moving average right below. If ISM continues toward 60, it would indeed lay the groundwork for the next cycle. But the timing might be later than the market expects. A banner opposing CBDC was hung outside the Bank of Korea in Seoul, with very direct wording: "CBDC will monitor and control my assets. If the bank is hacked, all my assets could disappear. CBDC is very dangerous."
The background is that South Korea is testing wholesale CBDC and bank deposit tokens but has not yet decided whether to launch retail CBDC. The banner specifically opposes this step of "retail CBDC."
The significance of this event is not just about South Korea itself but represents a global emotional tension: central banks worldwide promote CBDC to improve payment efficiency and monetary sovereignty, while the public's core resistance is that "money is tracked, can be frozen, and can be programmed."
This is actually two sides of the same coin as the crypto narrative of "decentralized cash"—both point to "who controls your money." The more CBDC advances, the more some people will come to understand why holding assets not controlled by a single institution is important.At 10.2 early, the current price of Yitai is 2698. The price has stayed above 2650 in recent days, fluctuating around 2700, neither going up nor down, grid trading within this range. This time it really felt great, and the profits have been steadily increasing. Relying on grid trading still feels a bit slow, but persistence is necessary; patience is the foundation of profit.
At this position now, I think it's just waiting for a big drop. With oil prices this high, how much longer can it hold? The longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical—waiting for it to come true. $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Last night, the $GRASS short position had an unrealized profit of 22%, but when I woke up, it was only 0.37%.
The volatility of this coin is really outrageous, with a 24-hour range close to 10%. It's not surprising that profits get wiped out. That's how contracts work—unrealized profits aren't real profits; anything can happen before you lock them in.
But I'm not worried at all. After continuous big gains, a spike is inevitable. I'm just waiting for that spike to take profit and exit. In shorting, the biggest fear is impatience; the more impatient you are, the easier it is to get stopped out.
Is anyone else also waiting on $GRASS? Share your current status in the comments. Are you also waiting for the spike like me? Or have you already exited early, or are you still holding on? #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #BTC to 200,000, #ETH breaking 10,000, #SOL to 1,000, altcoins fully erupting. These targets are set within a 6 to 12 month window, requiring not only cyclical patterns but also liquidity, policy, and capital rotation to align simultaneously.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein's long-term forecasts for #ETH are indeed above 10,000, but the timeline is 2027 to 2029, not next year. Glassnode's altcoin cycle signal has already lit up, but the altcoin season index is still between 60 and 64, some distance from the confirmed 75.
The direction can be trusted, but don't copy the timeline.Core Information Breakdown
1. Bitcoin ETF: Previously had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, interrupted on 9.30, with a significant cooling in inflow intensity. It's no longer a frenzy of large entries, but there is no large-scale exit either. This represents a temporary pause in institutional accumulation rather than a massive sell-off. The cumulative amount is 3.08 billion, with a single-day peak near 1 billion on 9.21. Now, single-day inflows are only tens of millions, showing a clear weakening of buying power.
2. Ethereum ETF: Previously had continuous inflows, but on September 29, it shifted to a slight net outflow of 2.81 million USD. The outflow amount is small, but the signal is strong: institutions have started to realize some profits on ETH, causing capital differentiation.
3. Phenomenon: Previously, BTC and ETH ETFs were bought simultaneously; now they have diverged—institutions prefer BTC more, while ETH faces slight reduction in holdings.
Reasons for the divergence
1. With tonight's non-farm payroll data approaching, institutions choose to lock in some profits early, reduce position risk, and avoid aggressively increasing holdings, playing cautiously against data uncertainty.
2. ETH is more elastic, rising more during upswings. When risks come, institutions prioritize realizing ETH profits and keep BTC as a base position for hedging, which is a common institutional practice.
Implications for the market
✅ Positive: BTC has not turned into large-scale net outflows; institutional base holdings remain, no collective bearish exit, and there is capital support. The conditions for a major crash are not present for now.
⚠️ Negative signal: Incremental buying has stopped, lacking new capital inflows, making it difficult to sustain a strong unilateral rally. The rise depends on tonight's non-farm data as a catalyst.
ETH is weaker than BTC: In terms of capital, BTC is stronger than ETH in the short term. If a rebound occurs, ETH's explosive power will be dragged down by ETF outflows; if a decline happens, ETH will fall more sharply.
Views combined with tonight's non-farm payroll data
1. If tonight's non-farm data is weak (bullish):
BTC will have ETF base holdings supporting a steadier rebound; ETH will rebound but with less gain than before due to ETF outflows.
2. If non-farm data is very strong (bearish):
Capital differentiation will amplify the decline; ETH will be under more pressure than BTC, and institutions will continue selling ETH.
3. If non-farm data is neutral and meets expectations:
Likely to maintain consolidation; ETF funds will continue to watch and wait, with limited room for both upside and downside.
$BTC $ETH
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 10.2｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short at pre-nonfarm highs, no chasing longs without incremental positive news.
$BTC is currently around 84800. After PCE came in below expectations, it surged to 85600 but was pushed back the same day. Yesterday it slowly climbed from 83100 to 85200, then stalled just below the previous high. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but after dropping from 87300, 85600 has become a visible resistance. Funding rates remain slightly positive, longs are still accumulating, yet the price can't hold. In this situation, if the nonfarm payrolls come in strong, it’s very likely to sweep lower again.
$ETH is now around 2700, moving in sync with BTC, also briefly spiked near 2710 but failed to hold.
The real variable tonight is the nonfarm payrolls. Market expectations are roughly 80,000 to 90,000 jobs added, with an unemployment rate around 4.1%. If new jobs significantly exceed expectations and wages heat up, rate hike expectations will re-intensify, and BTC could retest 83100 or even drop to 82000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 85200-86000, target around 83100-82000.
ETH: Short between 2720-2760, target around 2650-2580.
If BTC breaks above 87300 with volume, all shorts are invalidated; never stubbornly fight the trend.
What do you think will happen after the nonfarm data? Will BTC first drop to 82000 or break through 85600 directly? Let's discuss in the comments.