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#9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations become the focus—84,000 new additions actually make BTC shake three times first? October 2, 20:30 Nonfarm payroll suspense fully resolved October 2 20:30 The US released September nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Referring to August's PCE year-on-year growth of 3.4% and core demand of 3.0%, the initial demand for September 26 was 197,000. Jefferson indicated no urgent increase, pushing bets on October rate hikes downward. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't just look at the headline numbers for this macro project. The expectation for new additions dropped from 162,000 in August to just over 80,000. On the surface, employment cooled, but the unemployment rate was still stuck at 4.1%, and initial claims from 197,000 were below 200,000, indicating it wasn't a crash, just slow. The inflation side is even more complicated: August PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, core 3.0%, lower than earlier expectations but still far from the Fed's 2% target. Jefferson said more time to read data—this is a classic case of "hawk-beaked doves." For crypto, the logic is threefold: First, if the nonfarm payroll is above $85,000 or even close to $90,000, the market will re-speculate on a rate hike in October, with US Treasury yields and the dollar starting to pressure BTC and ETH in the short term; Historically, BTC can double in the 30 minutes after the nonfarm payroll period during normal hours. The strong nonfarm payroll in September dropped 2.32% in half an hour, with long positions liquidated $119 million—leveraged positions fear this the most. Second, if nonfarm payrolls fall below 80,000 and both hourly wages and unemployment rates weaken, the probability of a rate hike in October drops further, allowing risk assets to breathe a sigh of relief and BTC to rebound firstThe important signal is not the intraday peak alone, but how long long-term funding costs remain elevated after yields ease. A 10-year near 5.2% still keeps mortgages and balance-sheet decisions under pressure.
The buyback and stronger dealer capacity may help market plumbing, yet they do not erase the macro hurdle: duration now demands sustained confidence from borrowers and investors.
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Here are some keywords to avoid. After observing for a while, when you see people like this, just do the opposite of what they do. Most likely, they won't survive more than three months and will repeatedly get liquidated. 1: Genius girl xxx / Genius boy xxx 2: Genius trader xxx / anyone who considers themselves a trader. 3: xxx war god / 10u 100u challenge xxx 4: Always spouting terms like dog dealer, waterfall, zeroing out, speaking like someone with at most a high school education. Summary: These people are highly emotional, obsessed with high leverage and holding positions, always thinking about quickly doubling small funds, treating the crypto space like gambling and dreaming of getting rich overnight. They like to open trades frequently but their win rate and profitability do not match. They might win many times in a row but only make a little profit each time, which they call "taking meat," then lose it all in one go. The last and most critical point: these people love to short and even treat short positions as a "belief," meaning they trade against the trend. That's about it. When you see people like this, just avoid them.Everyone criticized me for going against the trend, but today everyone has gone quiet.
I shorted $UNI at 9.285, now it's 9.05, floating profit over 7%.
See, did I enter at the wrong position?
The market doesn't lie. It has been hammered down from 10.95, every rebound is tightly suppressed by the moving averages, each high is lower than the last, and volume keeps shrinking.
This is not a shakeout, this is a clear downtrend.
The real signal is that UNI on-chain in exchanges has piled up to a historic high of 113.9 million tokens, with Binance alone holding 73 million.
Smart money is moving into exchanges, are you still waiting for it to return to $10?
The macro picture is even clearer.
The October rate hike meeting is just ahead, and the probability of another hike this year is very high.
Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 140 million in a single week, institutional funds are accelerating their exit.
With high interest rates weighing down, DeFi tokens are the first to get hit.
My short position is not in a hurry to close. Until the trend reverses, any rebound is an opportunity to add to the position.
At this position, do you dare to short with me?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 After BTC stabilizes above 85,000, don't chase the highs; focus on these four “back-row picks”
If $BTC retakes 85,000, I won’t chase it at the peak. The reason is simple: the range from 83,000 to 85,000 has already been digested, and I already hold long BTC positions. Now it’s more important to judge whether capital will spread outward.
$ETH: Consolidating around 2,700. After BTC stabilizes, ETH only has a chance to open the 2,800–2,900 range if it breaks 2,750; if BTC strengthens but ETH can’t surpass 2,750, it’s better to wait.
SOL: Around 118–119. Breaking 120, the next target is 125–130. During real rotation, SOL usually won’t just fluctuate by 1%.
HYPE: Recently strong, approaching 89. If BTC breaks through simultaneously and HYPE stands above 90, it may continue an independent rally.
ZEC: Currently weaker than BTC and ETH. After BTC stabilizes above 85,000, don’t rush to bottom-fish; first see if it can turn from weak to strong, or even lead the rally. If capital starts to spread, high-volatility coins will benefit first.
BTC is responsible for confirming direction; I’m responsible for finding the back-row picks that haven’t started yet. ETH, SOL, HYPE, ZEC are the next watchlist. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC. ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling capital enthusiasm. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 90,000 tonight, why might BTC get slapped first? October 2, 2026, 20:30 Beijing time: US September nonfarm payrolls added 84,000 to 85,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, August PCE year-on-year 3.4%, core 3.0%. For the week ending September 26, initial hiring was 197,000 and below 200,000. Jefferson said more data is needed, so the market is cutting down bets on a rate hike in October. [Veteran's Rambling] Don't focus solely on new jobs. Initial hiring of 197,000 indicates companies are not willing to lay off people yet; low hiring and low layoffs are the current reality. PCE overall is 3.4%, core 3.0%, far from the 2% target. The Fed isn't unhawkish, but fears further rate hikes will push long-term yields out of control. If nonfarm payrolls add more than 90,000, hourly wages exceed 3.2% year-on-year, and unemployment remains at 4.1%, the dollar and Treasury yields will surge. BTC, based on historical nonfarm payrolls, fluctuates about 2.0 times in the last 30 minutes of normal trading, making it easy to be hit by leveraged long positions by 1% to 2.5%. Conversely, if new payrolls fall below 60,000 and unemployment exceeds 4.2%, the market may not get excited immediately because it fears recession; At that time, BTC often falls first and then withdraws, while ETH and altcoins decide whether to follow based on net stablecoin inflows. For real trading, before 20:30, reduce perpetual contract leverage to below 3x, keep stablecoins at least 30% of total position, and wait for data to check DXY, 10-year US Treasury yields, and CME rate hike probabilitiesAfter switching to PoS, Ethereum no longer burns electricity fees, but it has added continuous selling pressure caused by staking unlocks.
$ETH $ETH is struggling to break the $2,750 resistance, with tonight’s NFP data likely to trigger major volatility. ⚡️
Forecasts center around +91K, but estimates range widely from 35K–180K.
➤ Above 120K: downside pressure may increase
➤ Below 60K: $ETH could challenge resistance again
Expect sharp moves around the release. Stay patient and avoid impulsive entries. 📊
$BTC
$ETH
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows U.S. Senator Daines has introduced the ADAPT crypto tax bill, aiming to simplify the tax treatment of qualifying USD stablecoin spending and provide corresponding relief for network fees not exceeding $10. This is still a proposal and cannot be used to change the current reporting methods.
But I really like the problem it tries to solve. Payment products can make operations very smooth, yet users may face a pile of transaction records at the end of the year. Buying a product and paying a network fee each require determining whether a gain or loss occurred; the amounts are small, but the accounting work does not decrease accordingly. The time saved by technology is then spent on tax record-keeping.
If the relevant provisions are ultimately implemented, the stablecoin payment experience will be more complete. Ordinary users usually will not learn a complex set of asset disposal rules just to use a payment method. Making these daily operations easy to comply with, I think, is more useful than repeatedly promoting the vision.
The bill is not just about reducing burdens for the industry. Daines' explanation also proposes extending existing tax rules like wash sales to digital assets. In other words, the payment side is preparing to reduce friction, while the trading side is preparing to close some regulatory gaps.
I am willing to accept this approach to discussion: change what truly adds unnecessary burdens; reconsider arrangements that merely exploit tax system differences. Now we need to see how the text is amended and whether it can pass; we should not prematurely celebrate "introducing a bill" as full tax exemption.
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT Options settlement data for October 2 shows 30,500 BTC options expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.07, a max pain point at $82,000, and a notional value of $2.63 billion. For ETH, 116,000 options expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.17, a max pain point at $2,660, and a notional value of $320 million. Analysis indicates a clear rebound in BTC price on the settlement day, with strong bullish options block trades, marking it as a relatively active weekly settlement day. The price has oscillated around $85,000 for over a week, market confidence remains very positive, and community discussions mainly focus on expectations of major coin price increases. From the main options data, this week's primary term IV has decreased compared to last week's IV, only relatively rising from two weeks ago, currently at a low point since this bull market began. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Yesterday's plan:
✅ Buy the dip at 5% drop
✅ Add position at 10% drop
✅ Go all in at 20% drop
Today's reality:
📉 5% drop: Let's wait and see 📉
10% drop: Feeling a bit panicked 📉
20% drop: Is there something wrong with this project?
📉 30% drop: I'm a value investor
The biggest lie in crypto isn't "the pump is coming soon," but "I strictly follow my trading plan."$CORE If the official team completely abandons it and other nodes join with free pricing, is that good or bad?
For CORE holders, this is more likely a disaster rather than a blessing.
The end of a "leaderless public chain" is zero value: a "leaderless" public chain without a core team maintaining it, without financial support, and without developers building it will ultimately become a "digital ruin." Its token price will only decline steadily until no one cares.
Liquidity trap: Currently, CORE has fallen into a typical liquidity trap. Although there are many holders, external incremental funds are unwilling to enter. Once the official team completely lets go, market confidence will collapse entirely, and even the smallest sell orders could trigger a price crash.
Exchanges' "foot voting": Mainstream exchanges will quickly delist such unaccountable assets for risk control reasons. At that time, holders will face the desperate situation of "nowhere to sell."
The conclusion is: For holders already deeply involved, although the project team "bleeds" them, their existence at least maintains the network's superficial operation and the token's listing on exchanges. Once the project team completely abandons it, what remains for everyone will only be a "mess" accelerating toward zero value.
From the "grand narrative" step by step to the final stage of "responsibility transfer."On October 2, the Hang Seng Index closed down 2.6% at 23,972.29 points, after rising 0.4% the previous day. However, financial stocks dragged it down sharply, with HSBC falling 5.4% and AIA dropping 6.0%, marking their largest single-day declines since March 23. 【Veteran's ramblings】 Don't just focus on the pain in the Hong Kong stock market; the pain is in global money prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2002, and the 30-year yield once touched 5.65%. Hong Kong's linked exchange rate means HIBOR follows the US dollar. Bank stocks should benefit from net interest margins, so why are they leading the decline? The logic is reversed: long-term interest rates are too high, the market fears banks holding bonds will face unrealized losses, fears UK bank taxes, and worries about economic downturn bad debts. Multinational banks like HSBC are hit first. AIA's 6.0% drop is even more severe; insurance assets are all tied to long-duration fixed income, so when discount rates rise, the embedded value model is directly recalculated. Southbound trading was closed from October 1 to 7 and only resumed on October 8. Without northbound funds supporting, foreign capital dominates pricing, amplifying selling pressure to 640 points. One strange thing, let's clarify first. How does this map to crypto? BTC is not a follower of the Hang Seng Index. Historical samples show BTC had a negative 0.60 correlation with the Hang Seng, meaning Hong Kong stocks crashing doesn't necessarily mean BTC crashes, provided risk appetite isn't completely shocked. If the long end of US Treasuries, the US dollar, and VIX all rise together, BTC and ETH become high-beta risk assets and fall alongside the Nasdaq. Today's combination, with HSBC and AIA both plunging, tells the market liquidity is tightening, not expanding. When liquidity tightens, don't believe the "digital gold" narrative; first look at on-chain data. Exchange net flows are the most honest. BWith the silent US-Iran situation, where will the situation go? Early in the morning, Bloomberg reported that Iran intended to exchange nuclear inspections for easing sanctions. Although Iran later denied it, this contradiction between diplomatic and public information is actually a common occurrence. And now, the day after accepting US terms, Iran has yet to respond, which already says something! Looking at Trump's current large-scale military strikes + allied energy release + seemingly a fight to the death, I believe Iran is indeed feeling pressure. Judging by Iran's diplomatic pressure, Trump's reaction can be considered a success. #美伊升级风险再升, Brent oil returns to $100. But I really don't like Trump's "champagne half-court opening" stance. Trump has always wanted Iran to yield under the "gun's barrel," but are such extreme international rhetoric sure won't force Iran to take a tough stance? Of course, unless Trump is not applying diplomatic or military pressure but genuinely wants to fight, then at this point the question arises: without deploying large numbers of ground troops, how can Iran truly be subdued? Or by using large-scale military escorts + economic sanctions and blockades to ease energy shortages and trap Iran? But if Trump loses the midterm elections, how much influence will he have among U.S.-aligned allies? Will allied politicians still trust Trump? Currently, the drop in energy prices depends on Europe preparing to release diesel reserves, but it's clear Brent's decline is too slow, as several media outlets reported earlier this week about the resumption of pre-war Strait of HormuzBTC firmly held at 86000, ETH also defended 2700, so there’s actually some short-term room left. Honestly, the strength of this rebound exceeded my expectations a bit, making me wonder if I got off too early? Haha.
Better to pocket the profits first, that’s definitely not wrong, just don’t get carried away.
Let’s talk about some key levels. $BTC at 86000 isn’t just a random line—it’s right around the ETF’s comprehensive breakeven point, where long-term holders’ costs and concentrated liquidation levels all converge. Since the cycle low of 58000 in June, it’s already risen 45%, and the 50-week moving average has been reclaimed for the first time. So nailing the 86000 level carries more weight than it looks.
On the $ETH side, I agree with analyst Ali’s view: as long as 2640 holds, the pattern remains bullish. If it closes above 2700 on the hourly chart, the 3000 target opens up. Plus, this is the first time ETH has reclaimed 2700 since January, firmly standing above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so the technicals are solid.
But don’t just look at the technicals. Tonight’s September nonfarm payrolls are expected to show an increase of 84,000 jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Fed officials have repeatedly said the labor market has stabilized and they’re in no rush to raise rates; the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 50% to about 24%. This data likely won’t change the direction, but if it significantly beats expectations, short-term sentiment will definitely shake. Conversely, the ETF inflows that had accumulated 3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days ended yesterday with a net outflow of 149 million—funds are cooling off, and this signal can’t be ignored. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering near a high of 5.23%, and the 30-year yield recently touched a 24-year high; pressure on long-term rates hasn’t truly eased.
As for $ZEC, its price action is really twisted, often moving opposite to expectations. It crashed from a historic high of 1693 at the end of September, with whales leading the sell-off, dropping over 12% intraday. But if you look at the fundamentals, the privacy sector’s logic isn’t dead—Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF has launched, and the privacy coin sector’s market cap has grown from 7.1 billion to 33.6 billion in a year, with $ZEC’s market share still rising. The problem lies within the project itself: the Orchard vulnerability incident from June hasn’t been disproven, and after the core dev team disbanded, governance has been unstable, so trust repair will take time.
So my view is straightforward: if it drops further, I’ll actually start looking seriously bullish. Not blindly buying, but waiting for it to wash out more profit-taking, to form an emotional bottom before moving on.
Don’t expect a new high all at once this round; take it slow, there will be plenty of opportunities. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 Sisters, have you noticed? ZEC is really not doing well.
Today Bitcoin even broke a new high, but $ZEC only rebounded to 1380, not even holding above 1400.
So when Bitcoin starts to crash, ZEC will definitely plummet hard.
Look at the trend: ZEC dropped from 1493 straight down to 1305, now rebounding to 1386, still can't hold above MA20, MACD barely formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars are pitifully short.
This kind of rebound just gives shorts a chance to add positions.
When Bitcoin rises, it doesn't follow; when Bitcoin falls, it definitely follows—and falls even harder. This is the characteristic of a weak coin.
Coins that rely on emotional hype, once funds withdraw, will keep dropping continuously, not stopping after just one decline.
They push up hard on emotion when rising, and accelerate the fall with panic selling when dropping, with hardly any decent rebound in between.
I opened a short at 1656.46, and my return has already hit 816%, but I'm in no rush to exit.
My targets below are 1300 and 1200.
This time, I plan to hold until it truly bottoms out.
If you want to short now, you can try a light position around 1380, set stop loss above 1420, and first target 1300; if it breaks that, then head for 1200.
No need to go heavy, set stop loss properly, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Currently, the account has an unrealized profit of about ￥9950
$BOME has already successfully recovered; if the data tonight is good and BTC holds steady, I still look at 0.11 or a nearby position for dynamic adjustment. This time, I won't be greedy.
$LINK has been oscillating repeatedly in a grid pattern, should be good for some gains. You can set up some positions at 14.36 or below; no movement these past two days.
$XRP might be a bit late, but if the price is right, you can still buy some; it hasn't risen much.
ENA went down again after the afternoon pullback; on the 5th, there will be a large unlock. The target price to try entering is 0.225.
UNI hasn't risen either; if it goes to 8.7-8.8, you can buy some. I sold my position at 8.78.
AAVE previously mentioned at 160 that it would push to 190, I forgot where. SoL, starting from the same point, is still within its previous high; I hope it can break out.
If BTC holds steady at 83000, you can take some positions.
(All are established coins, just my personal opinion) #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 🚀 $BTC breaks through selling pressure to hit a new high for October, with short positions liquidated over $120 million. RSI is already at 70.6, so I'll be extra cautious in the overbought zone. The 86,949–87,282 range is a key stop-loss zone for the bears; if it's swept, it could easily turn into a false breakout to lure buyers for selling. Falling below 82,565 invalidates this, so how far do you think the bulls can push it?$BTC's short-term target is $87,000 after breaking through and stabilizing.
Technical structure: Analysts point out that BTC's correction starting from $87,395 has lasted 6 days with a maximum decline of about 5.53%. If it breaks through and stabilizes above $86,380, the correction will be confirmed as over, and a new high above $87,395 will be created.
Capital flow and institutional dynamics
ETF continuous net inflows: This week, Bitcoin ETFs have seen consecutive days of net inflows, with a single-day high of $347 million and a total inflow of $2.65 billion over 5 days; even when the price fell below $84,000, large funds were still buying.
Institutional accumulation: Strategy (MicroStrategy) resumed buying after a three-week break, increasing holdings to about 846,000 BTC, exceeding 4% of the total network supply; Strive also increased holdings by 6,106 BTC between August and September, valued at about $491 million.
Perpetual contract leverage: The market's open interest has risen to about $160 billion, reaching a new high since last October. Although the price hasn't risen, leverage is leading, so beware of flash crash risks.
Institutional target prices
Citibank: On October 1, raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price to $113,000.
Market divergence: Some traders believe the current rebound might be the "last deceptive rally," with $92,000 possibly the final barrier; others think this correction is a mid-bull market shakeout, and the upward trend starting from $57,800 remains intact.
$ETH
$ZEC The Hang Seng Index dropped 640 points in one day; why did HSBC and AIA scare crypto veterans into a cold sweat? On October 2, 2026, the Hang Seng Index closed at 23,972.29 points, down 2.60% for the day. Financial stocks led the decline, with HSBC down 5.4% and AIA down 6.0%, marking their largest drop since March 23 when they fell 3.5%. 【Veteran's ramble】This time, the Hong Kong stock market's drop isn't just about "bad sentiment." The root cause lies in U.S. Treasuries: the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65%, and the 10-year yield ranged between 5.25% and 5.34% at high levels. Under the Hong Kong linked exchange rate system, local interest rates follow U.S. market pricing, so banks and insurers took the first hit. Northbound capital flow has also stopped; the Stock Connect from October 1 to 7 is closed, and southbound is not taking shares, making the liquidity pool so shallow that a sell-off easily breaks support levels. Translated into crypto terms: high U.S. Treasury yields mean holding BTC, a non-interest-bearing asset, has a high cost; if stablecoin yields rise along the short end, funds prefer to hold USDC to earn interest rather than rush into altcoins. HSBC's 5.4% drop and AIA's 6.0% drop are not just about two stocks; they signal a global risk premium repricing. The absurd thing is many people only look at candlesticks and ignore government bonds. Is the funding rate zero? How much net outflow is there from exchanges? Are long-term addresses accumulating or dumping? These factors determine whether you add to your position. If U.S. Treasuries continue to hit new highs, first reduce leverage; don't be like me in 2018, holding positions until doubting life. Looking on-chain is even clearer. If BTC spot ETFs see continuous net outflows—for example, on September 30, 12 products combined had a net outflow of $148.7 million, with Fidelity's FBTC accounting for the majority—it indicates institutions are retreating, not bottom-fishing. PerpetualOKXOrbitTopics#OpenAI$1.4TFunding
This wave of hot topics is pushing $BTC to surge sharply upward, with a scene as intense as several heavy-duty concrete mixers roaring simultaneously on a construction site, forcefully pouring commercial concrete into molds.
I see many short-term traders thinking they've caught a big break, rushing up hastily with their vibrators, completely ignoring whether the supporting formwork underneath is properly secured.
Anyone who's worked in civil engineering knows that if concrete is poured too aggressively, and the scaffolding and braces underneath are cut corners, it's not building a load-bearing wall but a shoddy project that could collapse at any moment.
Currently, the $BTC price on the market has reached around 86408.6, and the one-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has soared to 70.6, clearly indicating the mortar is overfilled, with excessive moisture causing the surface to start whitening and efflorescing.
The upper band of the one-hour Bollinger Bands is pressing around 86722, and the clearance height under this prefabricated slab is locked tight.
The current price is almost forcibly pressing against the upper band, while the middle band at 85171 and the lower band at 83619 are still far behind; the underlying load-bearing beam hasn't caught up at all.
The faster the concrete is poured, the fiercer the hydration heat during the initial setting period. Without sufficient watering curing and stress settlement, forcing bricks upward only creates high-altitude cantilever cracks with no structural strength.
Having worked on construction sites for many years, I personally dread rushing the schedule and forcing progress.
While everyone cheers at the towering scaffolding, I only hear the sound of formwork being deformed by high-pressure concrete, the imminent cracking of wood about to burst the mold.
This thin stress-bearing surface simply can't withstand such brute force; even a slight vibration at the top will cause the supports below to collapse on the spot, burying all the greedy, reckless masons in a ruin of rebar and concrete debris.Does the price always rebound immediately after you just stop loss? Then you start doubting yourself, deciding not to stop loss next time, and end up holding the position until liquidation? I used to be like that too, losing 200,000 U before I understood: stop loss is not admitting defeat, it's protecting your principal, giving you a chance to keep trading. BTC current price 86401.1, resistance 86888.0, support 86000, I open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 85900, target 87000, never hold a position without stop loss. Remember: stop loss is not admitting defeat, it's to survive longer. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ZEC I went all in: Bulls are celebrating, I'm placing short orders at the peak
Family of the planet, I'm shorting ZEC at 1387. This is not a signal call, it's my trading plan.
Short logic:
1. Overheated sentiment: Privacy narrative is maxed out, contract fees turned positive, crowded longs, chasing high entries flooding in—looks like distribution, not a launch.
2. Structural weakening: After a sharp rally, volume-price divergence, dense resistance at 1380-1420, false breakouts prone to spikes and pullbacks.
3. Suitable risk-reward: Short at 1387, stop loss at 1445, targets at 1288/1188. Risking 58 to gain 100-200, R:R about 1.7-3.4.
Strategy: Light position, strict stop loss. If daily closes steadily above 1450, I admit I'm wrong and exit; otherwise, let profits run. ZEC is highly volatile; the stronger the rise, the harsher the pullback. I don't guess tops, I trade probabilities and odds.
Bulls see 1500? I'm watching liquidity harvesting.
Which side are you on: Is 1387 a top or a consolidation? Leave your target in the comments.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Seeing A7A5 directly named by the U.S. Treasury as a transnational criminal organization, my first reaction was: this thing has finally been exposed.
Backed by the ruble, used to circumvent sanctions, and even linked to Iranian exchanges and North Korean hackers. To put it bluntly, this is not a legitimate project, just a money laundering channel.
I fell into a similar trap years ago, tempted by the large on-chain volume, but it’s easy to get in and hard to get out. The lesson is simple: no matter how big the volume, money from illegitimate sources always ends in disaster.
Impact on the market? Basically none. This thing is isolated from the mainstream market; emotionally, it might heat up regulatory topics for a couple more days, but don’t force it into being a bearish factor for $BTC.
My current stance is very clear: I won’t touch it, nor do I recommend anyone around me to gamble in such gray areas.
Just keep an eye on one thing going forward: whether the U.S. Treasury will follow this line and name a batch of exchanges. That’s where the real pain will be.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC The real macro focus this week is the US nonfarm payroll data. Currently, the market expects about 90,000 new nonfarm jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%, compared to 162,000 new jobs added in August. ⏰ Released at 20:30 Beijing time: If nonfarm payrolls are significantly below 90,000 tonight: 📉 Job market cooling 📉, US Treasury yields falling 📉, dollar weakening 📈, market expectations for easing may rise. In this environment, risk assets like BTC and Nasdaq may find some support. $BTC has returned to around $86,000. If the data is weak, continue to watch for a breakout in the $87,000–$88,000 range. 👀 But if nonfarms again significantly beat expectations: 🔥 employment remains strong 📈, Fed policy expectations may shift back to hawkish 📈, US Treasury yields may continue to rise 📉, high-valuation tech stocks and AI sectors may come under pressure 📉, and BTC may also be affected by declining risk appetite. Notably, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury remains above 5%, putting valuation pressure on risk assets that cannot be ignored. So what is truly worth watching tonight is not just the nonfarm payroll data itself. 📌 The data is just the first shot. 📌 The direction after the US Treasury yield release may determine how BTC and US stocks move next. #BTC #Bitcoin #NFP #非农 #Nasdaq #美股 #Crypto #DailyOCrypto gave us another reminder yesterday:
A softer inflation number can push Bitcoin higher...
but if bond yields remain elevated, the rally can struggle to hold.
That's why I keep saying the crypto chart isn't the entire story.
Sometimes the biggest Bitcoin catalyst is sitting in the bond market.SOL's institutional treasury is accelerating its expansion again.
Forward Industries recently disclosed that in the last fiscal quarter, it added 948,601 SOL and SOL equivalents, increasing its holdings to 8,501,298 SOL, about 1.4% of SOL's circulating supply, with the newly added portion averaging a cost of approximately $83.
The significance of this for SOL is not just an additional buy order.
Corporate treasuries continuously absorbing SOL → the proportion of circulating supply locked/staked increases → market tradable chips decrease → the logic of institutional holding of SOL is further strengthened.
More importantly, Forward's SOL holdings grew by 13% this quarter, while the fully diluted SOL per share ratio rose from 0.0730 to 0.0806, a single-quarter increase of 10.4%.
But we also need to see the other side:
Some of the purchase funds come from the issuance of FWDI stock, and the company's institutional debt has risen to $167.5 million, with cash around $7.29 million.
So this is not simply a case of "the company crazily buying coins," but a model of capital market financing combined with SOL treasury expansion.
For SOL in the short term, I am more focused on two signals:
First, whether other SOL treasury companies will continue to follow suit;
Second, whether treasury accumulation can continue during SOL's price rise.
If SOL's price strengthens, and corporate treasuries continue to accumulate, combined with on-chain funds and ETF capital inflows, SOL's supply-demand structure will further improve.
Conversely, if SOL's rise mainly relies on sentiment but treasury accumulation slows down,UNI is paving the way, DOGE is waiting for the wind, OKB is watching the accounts
$UNI
Integrating Circle's Arc essentially extends the stablecoin exchange gateway to more scenarios. The $43 billion in Q2 indicates there is traffic, but to convert traffic into token value, it must pass through the fee capture stage. Current price 9.085U, 24h +2.24%. Rather than chasing the rally, more attention should be paid to DEX market share, LP retention, and the progress of fee toggle governance.
$DOGE
"It's about time" is emotional language, not financial language. Current price 0.09389U, 7d -3.62%, the trend has yet to strengthen. Meme coins can ignite with attention, but after the fire dies down, it depends on whether spot net inflows and contract positions take over. Without sustained buying, the hype is just noise.
$OKB
Current price around 121.5U, 24h +1.06%. As an X Layer fee asset, low Gas can attract interactions, but that doesn't mean the token is being continuously burned. The focus is on active addresses, contract deployments, and real on-chain consumption, not just daily positive candles. Applications remain, demand remains. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $NIGHT current price is 0.04439, up 12.12% in a single day, with nearly 140% increase in the past 30 days.
Many are discussing whether the speculative rally of ZEC has come to an end and funds have started rotating into this coin.
From the trend, it fell sharply from the previous high of 0.1197, consolidated at a long-term bottom, and recently funds have entered, driving a sustained rebound, representing a rotation after overselling.
Technically, it has short-term broken above all moving averages, indicators are at high levels, indicating a narrative driven by capital flow rather than a fundamental change.
The crypto market has limited funds; once a hotspot is played out, funds will rotate to low-level targets in the same sector. But it is important to distinguish that this is rotation speculation, not a value reversal.
Chasing highs carries great risk; rotation rallies come fast and the subsequent pullbacks are equally rapid. The big coin has completely confused me……
There are 3 hours left until tonight's Nonfarm Payroll.
I glanced at my positions, feeling both pricked like by needles and like I won the lottery.
I painstakingly set up short grids for $BTC /$ETH /$SOL, but today they all failed across the board. The ETH grid is down -13.8% overall, the price directly smashed through 3180, and the system popped up "Price out of range, strategy has paused trading." Big coin, oh big coin, you didn't even give me a chance to keep adding chips to the grid, you just threw me off the bus 😭.
The BTC and SOL grids are also unmatched losses, expanding all the way.
This really proves the old saying in the circle: mainstream coins are timid going long, altcoins strike with heavy punches.
Altcoins are really tasty, big coin teaches a lesson.
Tonight's Nonfarm, if ETH plunges further, my few mainstream grids really won't hold up.
Brothers, which altcoin are you ambushing? Share some strategies with me!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $LINK is one of the few infrastructure assets that can connect narrative with real usage. If cross-chain messaging and oracle demand continue to grow, the valuation is supported; however, token buying pressure may not necessarily align with the business. I am more optimistic about a structural breakout, provided the pullback does not break support. If it falls back into the range, then stop telling stories. Recently, the Meme sector has shown clear market divergence. Some new coins quickly ignite traffic upon launch, while the old Memes remain sluggish, with funds constantly switching back and forth between new projects.
Many people wonder what changes have occurred in Meme gameplay compared to two years ago. In the past, Memes relied more on community-driven spread and gradually built popularity through meme culture. Now, many projects depend on launch platforms for one-click token issuance, marketing immediately upon launch, resulting in rapid traffic but poor sustainability.
Many projects lack long-term operational plans and only pursue short-term price pumps, with no maintenance once the hype fades. The Meme ecosystems across different blockchains also vary greatly: Solana's ecosystem has the most concentrated traffic but intense competition; BSC chain has low gas fees but slower capital rotation, making it difficult to sustain a continuous market.
Many traders are torn between continuing to hold established Memes with mature communities or lightly speculating on newly launched projects with explosive traffic. Meme speculation carries extremely high risk, with the vast majority of projects eventually experiencing significant declines.
What do you think will happen next in the Meme sector? Will the established IPs reclaim the market, or will the newly launched short-term hits continue to dominate the market?
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC BTC Market Overview｜Current price 86405, 24H +3.12%
BTC volume breakout drives market sentiment recovery.
Logic: ETF funds flowing back provide support, US Treasury bonds and rate cut expectations are key variables, long-term chips are locked, but overhead trapped positions still exert pressure.
Price levels: Support at 85200, strong defense at 83300; resistance at 87500, breakout target 89200.
Short-term bulls dominate, contract competition intensifies, spikes and shakeouts likely on rallies. BTC stabilizes, altcoins will have rotation opportunities. ⚠️ Do not chase rapid gains, reduce leverage, and always use stop-loss.$NIGHT I'm 🌿, why do I only have these kinds of scam coins in my hands? Am I a reverse indicator or what?
Shorting, you just keep pumping, held for 5 days, still no drop, if it pumps more, it's going to explode!
10x short liquidation price 0.23! Market maker, have mercy, stop pumping, it's time for a correction, I surrender and take a loss!
If it drops 13%, I'll close all positions, orders placed!!!🔥 $SAND is up 43% and shorts are getting squeezed
Shorts still hold $3.73M vs $2.85M in longs, but they’re sitting on -$446K, while longs are up +$433K.
📈 62.7% of longs are profitable, compared with only 35.2% of shorts.
⚔️ Fresh flow is more cautious: $613K selling vs $408K buying in the last 30 minutes.
The squeeze has been brutal, but after a 43% pump and fresh selling picking up, profit-taking risk is getting much higher.The best approach when you don't understand the market is to stay out of positions. If you constantly feel the urge to trade every day, it means you have a strong gambling tendency inside. The best strategy is to wait for certainty to appear in your trading system. Following your trading system may not always make you money, but it will definitely minimize your risk.Today, the $BTC bullish candle is due to easing rate hike expectations combined with a short squeeze, not because the trend has been confirmed. BTC has reclaimed $86,000, currently around $86,100–$86,400, up about 2%–4% intraday.
Williams said rate hikes can wait until December, Jefferson also said it depends on the data, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped from 5.34% to around 5.22%.
Citi raised its 12-month target from $82,000 to $113,000. On October 1, spot ETF net inflows were $102.7 million, reversing the previous day's outflows. When breaking through $86,000, about $100 million in shorts were liquidated.
$85,000 was today's just-passed resistance; if it can't hold, it will turn back into resistance. $82,000 is the breakout platform from the end of September; if the daily close breaks below here, the correction is over. Above, first watch $86,900, then $87,400; only after surpassing $87,500 can $90,000 be clearly targeted.
Stay above $85,000 with a target of $87,400. Don't chase if it can't break $86,900. If it closes below $85,000, avoid going long.
If tonight's employment data is strong, this bullish candle won't hold!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Traveling to Japan, USDT can now be spent by scanning a QR code
The payment network has connected with local Japanese payees: just scan the PayPay QR code with a crypto wallet, enter the amount, and the payment is completed in about a dozen seconds.
The key is that you don’t need to exchange for yen first, nor open a Japanese bank account. The payment is directly deducted from the crypto balance in your account, with the system handling the exchange settlement in the middle. Merchants receive yen, and the official statement says no gas fees are charged.
Coverage is quite extensive, with millions of acceptance points at convenience stores, restaurants, supermarkets, and shopping malls. Currently, there is also a limited-time 10% instant discount.
The offline use case for stablecoins has taken another step forward.
$USDTThe market is now generally treating the National Day holiday as a "Seven Days of Red for National Day" trading period, with many bullish voices on the planet. The $BTC range of 82,500 to 80,500 is considered support, with the target being a second surge near 90,000.
October 1st is a domestic holiday with no corresponding relation to external markets. If the market makers are still waiting for this time window, the time left for them is running out. This round of rally is indeed very steep; things that rise sharply often fall quickly as well. The daily chart has already shown divergence, and the interest rate hike topic has been brought back into play. The impact after the September implementation is gradually emerging. Don't get carried away by this rally and think that rate hikes have become ineffective.
From the candlestick perspective, the daily level has actually broken down. Gold and the Nasdaq have already dropped first; Bitcoin is still holding here, acting as a support, with Ethereum following suit. The rest is up to time. From September 30 to October 30 this month, be cautious with long positions. Around the midterm elections in November, also watch out for black swan events. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Here’s the same $LAB trade rewritten in more detail: *$LAB is truly a garbage altcoin — almost got me liquidated.* At one point my position was so deep in loss that it was about to hit liquidation. Luckily it finally bounced back and I managed to escape. In the end, there was barely any profit left. Whatever little I made just went to pay for the funding/holding fees for more than half a month. Basically worked for free. lol 🤣The current order book is basically just an empty shell; the order book is as thin as paper, and any slightly larger order can easily skew the price. Many people are watching those multi-timeframe oversold indicators hoping for a rebound, but they don't even look at the trading volume—there isn't even a decent buy-side support. At this point, anyone who rushes in is just contributing liquidity to the order book. The main players are also inactive now; everyone is waiting for that volume-backed breakout or a volume-driven rally. At times like this, whoever moves first is at a disadvantage. I'll keep observing and wait until a real trend backed by solid money emerges before taking action.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI AVAX is strengthening with volatility today, with intraday lows rising, indicating some capital inflow into the public chain sector. The main highlights of Avalanche lie in RWA, institutional-grade on-chain applications, and subnet ecosystems. Recently, discussions around traditional finance and stablecoin settlements have heated up, bringing these infrastructure projects back into market focus. AVAX is currently not just driven by sentiment but supported by a certain narrative, though ecosystem data and new applications remain key to sustainability. The short-term structure has improved; if trading volume continues to expand, the market may further trade on expectations of its RWA and institutional cooperation. $AVAX BCH showed a strong rebound today, and after breaking through during the session, it did not quickly fall back, indicating that there is still willingness among investors to participate in the catch-up rally logic for this established payment coin. When BTC performance improves, BCH is often easily traded by the market as a highly elastic similar asset, especially during the phase when mainstream coin trends are spreading, making it more likely to attract capital attention. BCH's narrative itself is not complicated; payment, miner ecosystem, and historical recognition are its core tags. The current trend is relatively strong, but its sustainability depends more on the overall market and volume. If BTC continues to stabilize, BCH's catch-up sentiment may persist; otherwise, one should be cautious of increased volatility after a surge. $BCH"PCE Provides Some Oxygen, But Nonfarm Payrolls Are the Real Threshold"
PCE was slightly below expectations, giving some short-term support, but don’t get too optimistic yet. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hanging around 5.3%, and the interest pressure hasn’t eased, making it difficult for crypto to rally significantly.
$BTC is hovering near 84,000, touching 84,300 during the day but getting pushed back. There’s buying support at 83,000 and selling pressure above 85,500. The overall trend isn’t broken, but since rising from the 70,000s, the upward momentum has clearly weakened.
$ETH is fluctuating around 2,700, trapped between 2,600 and 2,800. Compared to BTC, it’s less elastic; money prefers to stay in Bitcoin. For Ethereum to strengthen independently, it needs to hold above 2,800 first.
$ZEC carries the highest risk. After nearly doubling earlier, it corrected about 6% on October 1 and dropped 13%–15% over the week. The upward channel has broken, and now it’s oscillating between 1,300 and 1,400. Volatility is high; avoid heavy positions.
Summary: Inflation data is slightly better, giving the market a breather, but interest rates haven’t dropped. Nonfarm payrolls are the key. Hold back before the data and wait for direction.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 XRP performed relatively well today, rising during the session and maintaining near the highs, indicating a renewed focus of capital on the payment narrative. Recently, Visa and banking institutions have advanced USDC cross-border settlement testing. Although this is not directly equivalent to positive news for XRP, it does strengthen the market's imagination about on-chain payments, clearing efficiency, and the integration of traditional finance on-chain. XRP is sensitive to news; once capital focuses on it, volatility tends to amplify. Currently, bullish sentiment dominates, but whether it can continue depends on whether trading volume can keep expanding and if there are new catalysts in the payment sector. $XRPSamsung stocks rush into the crypto space, XRP only rises 3.1%: the market is not over yet
$XRP is currently at 1.5384, up 3.1% in 24h. Tokenized stocks of Samsung and SK Hynix have landed on Coinstore, opening a zero-fee zone, with XRP listed as a directly exchangeable currency—traditional giants entering the crypto space is a significant positive, and I am outright bullish.
Some say the good news is fully priced in? Market evidence: after the event, $XRP moved from 1.5324 to 1.5389, only +0.42%, the market has not overextended. The daily RSI is 56.3, moderately strong but not overbought; short-term moving averages have been in a bullish alignment for 9 days; funding rate is neutral at 0.0001; long-short account ratio is 2.2873, bulls dominate but it’s not crowded.
The only warning is the daily MACD just formed a death cross above zero for 1 day, with expanding green bars—avoid chasing highs recklessly, scaling in is safer.
Resistance above: 1.542 (24h high), break through to watch 1.5443, 1.5464.
Support below: 1.538 (4h SAR), if broken retreat to 1.5191.
The market is in an offensive phase, the good news has only just started to show. Enter long at the current price 1.5384, stop loss just below 1.538, add positions after breaking 1.542, target 1.5443.
Whether $XRP breaks out or rallies, like and follow, I’ll alert you immediately.
$XRP $BTCThe dollar hasn't peaked yet, so risk assets are hard to truly relax.
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that before the dollar peaks and Treasury yields retreat from their highs, investors may continue to reduce leverage and reduce high-risk trades.
Now the logic is clear:
A stronger dollar → capital flows back into dollar assets→ US Treasury yields remain high→ funding costs rise → risk appetite declines, and → BTC and high-beta assets are under pressure.
Currently, the US dollar index has risen for the third consecutive week, with a weekly gain of about 0.9%, and at one point reached its highest level since April 2025. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remains at its highest level since 2002.
What's even more noteworthy is that if small-cap and bank stocks continue to weaken, the market's concern is not just valuation, but the possibility that economic growth expectations may begin to cool.
For BTC, the biggest contradiction now is also here:
On one hand, ETF funds are flowing back, offering spot buying opportunities;
On the other hand, the strengthening US dollar and high US Treasury yields are suppressing overall risk appetite.
So in the short term, I will focus on three variables:
Can the US dollar peak?
Whether U.S. Treasury yields can fall significantly;
Whether ETF funds can continue to flow in when BTC rises.
If the US dollar weakens, US Treasury yields fall, and ETFs continue to attract funds, the upward environment for BTC will improve significantly.
Conversely, if BTC surges but the dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, you need to guard against a pullback caused by tightening liquidity.
Today's nonfarm payrollsWhy did I only use a very small position this time, instead of going all in to bottom fish?
$ZEC dropped from 1494 to 1305 in this wave, and I admit I panicked a bit in between. Seeing my account's unrealized loss slightly widen, several times the thought "Maybe I should cut losses" flashed through my mind.
But in the end, I didn't act—not because I'm stubborn, but because I did the math for myself.
What I'm really doing is not betting on whether it will rebound.
I'm betting on one thing: that those with large positions will be washed out, while those with small positions can hold on until the reversal.
So I reduced my position to very small, so small that even if it drops another 20%, I can still hold and wait. The liquidation price was pulled up to over 400,
What does this mean? It means no matter how much the manipulative whales smash it, they can't hurt my foundation.
This is the real value of going long this time—not in correctly predicting the direction, but in position management that lets you stay at the table and not get kicked out.
The price has now bounced from 1305 to 1385, still not reaching my first target.
I won't shout "Charge!" or "All in!" or "Making a killing!".
I will only say: if you want to participate, don't rush to go heavy. First ask yourself how much drawdown you can endure, then decide how much position to take.
The market always has opportunities, but your principal only comes once.
$BTC $ETH
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 POL initially suppressed then stabilized today, overall showing a fluctuating recovery trend. The core focus of Polygon remains large-scale payments, enterprise cooperation, and Ethereum scaling ecosystem. Traditional financial institutions testing stablecoin settlements will also indirectly strengthen market attention on low-cost, high-efficiency on-chain infrastructure. However, POL still faces intense competition from legacy public chains and insufficient narrative updates. The short-term ability to hold the recovery after a pullback indicates that selling pressure has not further expanded; for a true strengthening, we need to see simultaneous improvements in ecosystem applications, on-chain activity, and capital flow. $POLUnder capital rotation, $SKHYNIX is slightly bullish in the short term but volume is dragging behind.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for 9 consecutive days, while ETH has turned to outflows, indicating that funds are re-evaluating mainstream coins. SKHYNIX, as a highly volatile asset, shows bullish sentiment, but rotation risks cannot be ignored.
Current price is 1318.9, up slightly 0.3% in 24 hours, with a turnover of only 87,000, and a quiet market. Funding rate is -0.0390%, shorts are paying, open interest is 33,000, short squeeze pressure is accumulating. The top 10 order book shows 329 buy orders and 163 sell orders, with a buy/sell ratio of 2.03, buyers have the upper hand.
The 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are upward, 3.56% and 7.11% above the low point respectively. Support at 1276.5, resistance at 1362.3. Slightly bullish in the short term, but chasing higher on low volume is risky.
Strategy: Try going long on a pullback near 1281.7, stop loss at 1264.2, target 1341.8; if it pushes up to 1355.6 and faces resistance, consider light short positions, stop loss at 1372.4, target 1298.3. Position size should not exceed 20%, exit decisively if stop loss is hit.
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.
$SKHYNIX #ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点