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🌊 Waves are back to talk about gold again!
Tonight the non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and gold is currently stuck around 4100. The market has entered a critical observation window, and once the data is out, volatility may significantly increase.
If the non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations, for example below 60,000, the market might reprice rate cut expectations, giving gold a chance to rebound to the 4185–4200 range.
Conversely, if employment data is exceptionally strong, exceeding 100,000, gold may come under pressure and break below 4100, with the 4000 area becoming a key focus for the market.
However, don’t just focus on gold’s candlestick chart. What’s more worth watching now are U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. If Treasury yields remain high and the dollar index continues to strengthen, the short-term pressure on the non-yielding asset gold will persist.
Of course, the long-term logic cannot be ignored: global central banks continue to increase gold reserves, and the de-dollarization trend is still developing. These factors remain important variables for gold’s long-term demand.
📌 In summary: control your pace before the non-farm data release, and watch the direction after the data comes out. Don’t chase gains or cut losses prematurely.
$XAU $ETH $SOL
#gold #nonfarm #USTreasuryYields #ratehikeexpectations #Crypto #dailyorbitUS nonfarm payroll data will be a short-term market focus, with an emphasis on the combination of new jobs + unemployment rate. 📊 Three possible scenarios: 🟢 Nonfarm <70K + rising unemployment rate * BTC: likely bullish reaction * ETH: bullish * DOGE: likely stronger performance * PEPE: likely stronger performance ⚪ Nonfarm 70K–110K * BTC: increased probability of volatility * ETH: oscillating * DOGE: oscillating * PEPE: oscillating 🔴 nonfarm >110K + declining unemployment rate * BTC: possibly facing downward pressure * ETH: possibly under pressure * DOGE: increased downside risk * PEPE: increased 📌 downside risk However, the market's final reaction depends not only on the nonfarm payroll figures but also on unemployment rate, wage growth, US Treasury yields, and Fed rate expectations. What is truly worth watching tonight is how the market repricing the October interest rate path after the data release. 👀 #BTC #ETH #DOGE #PEPE #NFP #Crypto #DailyOrbitToday's Market Snapshot: BTC and ETH both rise nearly 3%
🧡 BTC
Currently at $86,145, 24-hour increase +2.84%, breaking above the $86,000 mark during the day. The rise is mainly driven by two forces: first, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day inflow of about $196 million, with institutional funds continuously entering through compliant channels; second, escalating US-Iran tensions and ongoing navigation disputes in the Strait of Hormuz have led to marginal safe-haven inflows into BTC.
Key levels: Resistance above at $86,900, support below in the $85,000–$85,200 range.
💙 ETH
Currently at $2,753.97, 24-hour increase +2.82%, breaking through $2,750. The catalysts come from two aspects: the Glamsterdam upgrade is confirmed to launch on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, with the roadmap progress providing sentiment support; BitMine chairman Tom Lee publicly stated at Korea Blockchain Week that ETH could be "well above $10,000" in the next 12 months, sparking mid-to-long-term expectation discussions.
Key levels: Resistance above at $2,800, a breakout with volume could open up space; support below at $2,680–$2,657. Institutions are willing to engage with DOGE not because of community hype, but due to market structure: this chain provides a quiet entry channel for large funds.
A single million-dollar order directly hitting the order book would have its impact cost eat into profits first. The TWAP solution is to split the large order into dozens or hundreds of smaller orders, releasing them evenly over time, each order kept within the order book depth, so that as soon as it lands, it is absorbed without pushing the price up. DOGE’s depth on top exchanges can sustain this rhythm, which is the premise for controllable slippage.
The value of 1-minute block times lies elsewhere. On-chain transfers, deposit confirmations, and cross-exchange allocations have a waiting window an order of magnitude shorter than BTC’s 10 minutes. When institutions run TWAP, margin replenishment, hedge adjustments, and OTC settlements are all stuck waiting for on-chain confirmations; if the ammunition arrives 10 minutes late, the entire execution plan must be rearranged. DOGE compresses this friction to the minute level.
Depth determines impact cost, block speed determines capital turnover; combined, $DOGE’s large order execution efficiency holds up among mainstream assets. For institutions, only assets that can build positions without disturbing the market make it onto the long-term list.$MEGA short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet?
$MEGA +5.08% in 24 hours, current price 0.04838. On the surface, it's just a fluctuation, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is bearish, 4-hour is bullish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.04 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw a conclusion.
Set emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.05025621, currently bearish; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.04638075, currently bullish. Short timeframes reveal changes, long timeframes limit imagination. When both agree, watch out for overcrowding; when they conflict, watch out for reversals. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.$160, 50,000 $AAVE, 8 million USDC.
An address suspected to be from the Aave team has been slowly selling off like this over the past week.
What I admire is not how much they sold, but the way they sold it.
The coins obtained from vesting between 2020 and 2021 basically had negligible cost.
At this point, selling 50,000 per week at an average price of $160, without crashing the market, without hyping, quietly converting to cash.
The contrast is clear: previously they held coins as the team, now they are selling as ordinary counterparties.
There are still 30,000 left, worth $5.5 million, probably not in a hurry.
What really needs attention is not whether this batch is sold out, but whether the remaining 30,000 will also be slowly sold off like this.
Honestly, I’d rather encounter such counterparties less often.
They hold vested coins, while I hold real money; this game was never quite fair from the start.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $AAVE Just looking at the numbers is already exciting😂 🟠$BTC • Position: about 538 BTC • Position value: about $46.2 million • Leverage: 40x • Opening price: $84,620 • Current unrealized gain: about $92,000 (+7.95%) • Estimated forced trade-off: about $74,700 • Funding paid: about $18,500 With 40x leverage, even a few percentage points of price movement can significantly amplify the impact on your position. Next, it depends on whether BTC can hold the key price area and whether high-leverage positions will see new adjustments 👀📊 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbitMy friend really cracked me up. He went short at 2768, then it dropped to 2753, bounced back to 2763 and he ran, always wanting to short but then getting scared. Now he says he'll short at 2828 and hold all the way down to 2200. He says he just needs one chance and is determined to catch this pullback. It’s hilarious. I directly asked him if he’s trading short-term or long-term. I want to see if he’ll actually run if it really pulls back to 2500.Hello, buddies, I am Chao Ge 🤝
Q: 🚀 Just now, a buddy messaged me privately: Why is it that even when the direction is right, I am losing money while the market makers are making money?
➡️ Friends, it's very common to be right about the direction but still lose money.
You predict that Bitcoin will rise, open a 5x long position, and set your liquidation price at 82000. Then the market maker first pushes the price down to 81500 to trigger your liquidation, and after you are forced out, the price turns around and rallies to 86000. Your direction was right, right? But your chips are gone, and you can only watch helplessly.
👉 This is exactly how the market makers make money. They don't focus on the direction, but on liquidity. They clearly see where you set your stop loss and liquidation price. They first aggressively push the price in the opposite direction to wipe out all high-leverage and close-stop-loss positions, eating up the bloodied chips, then follow the main trend to pull the price back up.
👉 From a technical perspective, you can understand this by looking at open interest and liquidation heatmaps. Before every major market move, there is often a reverse spike to shake out retail traders. Also, consider funding rates: if you hold positions overnight, longs have to pay interest, and over time, the cost alone can wear you down.
🎈 So remember, being right about the direction is only the first step.
Controlling leverage, setting proper stop losses, and building positions in batches are ten thousand times more important than just guessing the right direction.
🎈 Right direction but wrong position sizing, and you can still die a painful death. Don't let the market makers use your liquidation orders as fuel.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
$BTC
$ETH $ONE Short-term Three Scenarios
1. Holding above 0.00211
Most likely to oscillate between 0.0021–0.00256, suitable for watching order books and event news, not suitable for heavy positions chasing.
2. Volume breakout above 0.00256
Short-term may test 0.00268 → 0.00289. But ONE's market cap is only about $30 million, with trading volume around $11–15 million, so small funds can cause large fluctuations; the breakout may not be reliable.
3. Breaking below 0.00211
Short-term tends to continue probing 0.0018–0.00182. If this area also fails, it may retest the historical low region near 0.000536.
Three triggers affecting short-term price movements
● ERC-20 migration progress: Once contract address, snapshot time, and exchange switch announcements are clear, it can easily trigger a pulse-like surge.
● Exchange deposit and withdrawal status: If a major exchange suspends deposits/withdrawals or delists the trading pair, short-term weakness will occur quickly.
● BTC/ETH trends: ONE's correlation with BTC is about 0.83; if BTC or ETH pull back, ONE usually falls more.
Operation reminder
ONE is not a typical trend coin in the short term but an event-driven + low liquidity game. Price quotes vary greatly across exchanges, order book depth is thin, prone to slippage and false breakouts. If participating short-term, smaller positions and right-side confirmation before action are more suitable; breaking below $0.0018 should be regarded as a risk signal. $BTC has been sideways for ten days after falling back from 87390. The market looks like a compressed spring, lacking buying momentum upward and lacking panic downward. Based on past experience with major consolidations, 15-day, 30-day, and 60-day periods are often important turning points. The 15-day mark is approaching now, coinciding with the end of the holiday. Funds are likely to remain cautious before the holiday, making the market more prone to range-bound tug-of-war rather than a smooth one-sided move.
At this stage, the biggest risk is mistaking consolidation for a trend. Frequent trades often get repeatedly shaken out by up-and-down spikes. Instead of guessing the direction early, it's better to wait for the window to materialize, observe volume, key levels, and cycle resonance, then follow the trend accordingly. If volume continues to shrink and the market grinds, it's best to watch more and trade less. Cycle patterns are historical statistics and do not guarantee outcomes.
$ETH $SNDK #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The biggest concern for $ADA is not the price fluctuations themselves, but that after a price move, participation hasn't kept up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.68 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends appearing strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 0.2564, about 5.23% above the 1-hour support at 0.243, and about 0.35% below the resistance at 0.2573. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 0.2573 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it falls below 0.243, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.2389. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.2573 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$BTC and $ETH have just undergone a clear round of high-leverage liquidations, with a large amount of over-positioned positions being forcibly cleared by the market, significantly reducing short-term leverage levels. ➤ $BTC: Liquidation amount exceeds $130 million ➤ $ETH: Liquidation amount exceeds $75 million ➤ Reduction in high-leverage positions ➤ Market position readjustment Although this rapid volatility makes the market more intense in the short term, it also clears some excess leverage, freeing up room for the next rally. Focus next: 📊 Will funds after liquidation re-enter the market 📈? Can BTC and ETH quickly reclaim key price zones ⚠️? And whether market volatility will further amplify after the release of US employment data #BTC #ETH #Crypto #USJobsDataToday #BTCETHETFOutflows #DailyOrbitBTC is overall bullish, but it is not recommended to open new positions before tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls.
The current price is close to the 86,200–88,000 supply zone; do not open new positions before tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls; only trade pullback longs in the swing, avoid chasing breakouts.
My basis for judgment:
▶️ Price has stabilized above 80,000, marking the third consecutive week of gains this week,
▶️ 24-hour short liquidations exceed $200 million, funding rates are roughly 8%–11% annualized, longs are not crowded.
▶️ This wave is mainly short squeezes and leverage, not continuous ETF buying; there has been about $150 million net outflow in recent days.
▶️ The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5.2%; Nonfarm Payrolls is a binary event with poor risk-reward for chasing longs or topping out.
Specific trading suggestions:
$BTC buy on pullback to 84,200–85,000,
stop loss if daily close falls below 82,800, target first 87,200–88,000, then 90,000.
If 4-hour closes above 88,000 and ETFs resume continuous net inflows, consider chasing longs with targets 90,000–92,000.
If daily close falls below 82,800 and yields rise again after Nonfarm Payrolls, switch to short, first target 80,800–81,500.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Mattel MAT surged about 19% in one day to around 15, with rumors that ABG's bid intention exceeds $20. I'm not chasing it yet.
Here's what I saw: Just closed this daily K-line, open about 12.6, high about 17.23, low about 12.4, close about 15.04, up about 18.8% from the previous close of about 12.66, with an intraday high touching about 17.2.
WSJ reported that Authentic Brands Group is privately discussing an acquisition, with a valuation intention exceeding $20 per share, about $6 billion; CNBC said negotiations are still very preliminary, and neither side has officially announced.
The day before, Mattel just announced that the CEO of Condé Nast will take over Mattel, and the stock price fell about 4% on Wednesday. Once the rumor broke, trading volume immediately surged.
Simply put: This is an emotional spike caused by "acquisition rumors + leadership change," not a toy order or profit doubling overnight.
I think short-term you shouldn't chase this long upper shadow; the high was about 17.23 but fell back to about 15. The official offer hasn't been revealed yet, and the rumor stage is most vulnerable to falsification and pullback.
My approach: just observe and don't chase, don't buy at the emotional peak.
If it fails, watch for a break below today's low of about 12.4 to continue down, or wait for a proper close above about 17.23 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for the official offer to act, or do you think the $20 narrative is strong enough to get in directly?
$MAT $DIS $HAS
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ADA This chart is a bit interesting, up 3.4%, but the volume is exactly the same as usual, not even doubled.
What does it mean? It means no new funds have come in. I've seen many volume-less rallies; most are short covering plus spontaneous moves, not someone building a position. If you chase in at 0.255, the next bearish candle could trap you halfway up the mountain.
What I really want to see is when it can break above 0.27 with increased volume—that would mean real money is coming in. What am I planning to do now? Nothing. It only rose 0.9% in 7 days, hasn't even chosen a direction, so why rush? $ADA #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 Bro, OpenAI's valuation is really hitting astronomical numbers every day
Latest news, it's raising a new round of funding with a target valuation of 1.4 trillion USD, planning to raise at least 30 billion USD. Note, this is still primary market financing after postponing the IPO. Annualized revenue is already approaching 70 billion, with growth over 70% since early Q3, and enterprise business revenue has doubled. This fundraising ability is indeed fierce
But what’s really worth savoring is another piece of information. Trump said in an interview that he might consider a government shareholding model for OpenAI and Anthropic similar to Intel's. Although there is no specific plan yet, the signal is explosive. The US government wants to directly become a shareholder, which shows AI is no longer just a business competition but has completely risen to a national strategy. Capital, policy, and technology are all tied together. $SNDK
What does this mean for our crypto circle? Two levels
First, liquidity is being severely drained. AI giants are crazily absorbing funds in the primary market, and global hot money is flowing there. This is also one of the fundamental reasons why US Treasury yields are capped at 5.27% and Bitcoin is consolidating around 83,000. Money is chasing AI’s super returns, so the crypto circle naturally gets less
Second, the emotional reflection. AI concept coins in the crypto circle will ride the hype, but such major events can’t bring direct buying pressure to crypto in the short term. Instead, it’s a reminder that the fiercer the capital expenditure in traditional fields, the easier risk assets fall into a zero-sum game🟢 If NFP is much weaker than expected
Example: 40K–60K, especially if unemployment rises to 4.2%+.
* BTC: Potentially bullish as markets may price less Fed tightening.
* ETH: Similar reaction; volatility could be larger.
* DOGE/PEPE: Higher-risk assets could react strongly if crypto moves into risk-on mode.
* Gold: Potentially bullish because weaker employment can reduce rate expectations and yields.If tonight's US nonfarm payroll data does not significantly exceed expectations, and the market further confirms that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October, then Bitcoin continuing to approach around $90,000 is not impossible. One of the key factors previously suppressing BTC's movement was the sudden rise in market rate hike expectations. But now the situation is changing: 📌 the latest PCE inflation data is below market expectations 📌, and the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped 📌 significantly from the previous high of nearly 70%. If the non-farm payrolls do not significantly beat expectations tonight, the market may further lower the pricing 📌 for rate hikes. If US Treasury yields fall simultaneously, macro pressure on risk assets may continue to ease. From this perspective, tonight's nonfarm payrolls seem more like an important "confirmation signal." If employment data is moderate + rate hike expectations continue to decline + US Treasury yields fall, then BTC's upside potential may reopen. 🎯 Next, focus on the breakout in the $86,000–$88,000 range. If market sentiment continues to improve, the $90,000 threshold may once again become the focus of bullish and bearish battles. ⚠️ The above is market information and personal opinion only, and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, so please manage your risks well. #BTC #Bitcoin #非农 #美联储 #PCE #加密货币 #DailyOrbitMany people are still asking
whether $CORE can still rise
But I think a more worthwhile question is
when the next wave of BTCFi truly explodes
can CORE become one of the value capture players
Core's current logic is no longer just
about building a Bitcoin ecosystem chain
but moving in a direction where
$BTC generates revenue
the ecosystem generates income
income drives CORE buybacks
combined with BTC Staking
LST
BTCFi
Neobank
RWA and other applications continuously landing
If this flywheel really starts running
CORE's valuation logic will also change
Previously, people might have valued it as
a public chain
In the future, the market might see it as
Bitcoin financial infrastructure + income + buybacks
Of course
there is still a long way to go
and in early September Core just completed an emergency hard fork to fix validator reward anomalies
In the short term, the focus is still on whether network stability and user confidence can recover.
But if I were to preemptively put a long-term watchlist
CORE still deserves a spot
not because of whether it rises now
but because I value $BICO more
When the next wave of Bitcoin liquidity truly starts seeking yield
whether CORE can catch that money
this might be CORE's biggest story in the next phase.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Several waves of misjudgments, impatience led to losing more than half 🫠, as expected, still need to calm down to make decisions$CT can only reach this level, this coin has increased sevenfold in three days, and the spot listing surged 500% in just fifteen minutes. It feels very easy to dump, brothers don't chase the high, especially on weekends #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
If the job market continues to weaken while rate hikes remain delayed, risk assets could face a very different macro setup.
A softer employment backdrop may increase expectations for more supportive monetary policy, potentially improving liquidity conditions.
For Bitcoin and crypto, the key will be whether jobs, wages, and broader economic data confirm that shift.
The macro picture is changing 📊👀
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #Bitcoin #CryptoTreasuryDivides$BTC 4-year cycle bottom, from October 1 to October 30,
I have basically completed the layout,
A Bitcoin position with one 2x contract and one 2x leveraged spot, cost price around 78k;
If it falls below 80k in October, I will add a small amount of MSTR,
But the Bitcoin position is already full,
Grasp the 4-year cycle, hold until 2029!
Target price 180k~200k! Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 8-hour rate -1%, price +0.25%, position volume +1.16%. The rise is accompanied by increased positions; holding shorts through settlement faces both adverse price movements and funding fee expenses.
$CT short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.1333%, price -0.92%, position volume +3.21%. The decline synchronizes with increased positions; holding shorts through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.🔥 The big surge in October is about to begin, the ultimate showdown between macro and cycles, will $BTC soar to 95,000+?
The crypto market is once again entering the historically famous "Uptober" bullish cycle. Facing the current complex market, will October's trend replicate the surge myth, or are there potential hidden risks?
Cycle evolution: The traditional "three years bull, one year bear" pattern has been profoundly changed by institutional funds. Although historical statistics favor bulls, with the rise of institutional ownership, the tug of macro liquidity on cycles is far more intense than a single historical pattern.
Macro linkage: Nasdaq's "double top" and "breakout"
The US stock market trend is the core variable affecting this round of market risk appetite:
Positive expectations: After nearly half a year of high-level consolidation, profit-taking and trapped positions in Nasdaq have been largely digested. Once the US stock market breaks through the previous high range, market risk appetite will fully rise, and overflow funds are expected to drive a new round of rallies in risk assets including $BTC.
Potential risks: If the US stock market is constrained by uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace or geopolitical economic data shocks, and turns downward at the current position, it is easy to form a daily-level "double top" pattern. A correction in the US stock market will inevitably drag the crypto market down, which is the extreme scenario to guard against this month.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Why does NFP matter for crypto? 👀
Core PCE came in softer than expected, while consumer spending remains resilient. Now the market is watching September NFP closely.
📈 Strong jobs → fewer Fed cuts priced in → liquidity could tighten.
📉 Weak jobs → more room for Fed easing → liquidity conditions could improve.
For $BTC, the real signal isn’t just the headline NFP number. Watch job growth + wages + unemployment together.
Mark the date. 📊
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTC #CryptoCORE Bull Market Forecast: BTCFi Independent Public Chain, 30x Is a Low Probability Scenario
⚠️ Investment research review, not investment advice. Current price $0.023, CoreDAO is an independent L1 public chain with Satoshi Plus consensus, historical high of $6.14, total supply capped at 2.1 billion tokens, released gradually over 81 years, currently about 1.5 billion tokens in circulation.
Conservative scenario: BTC mild bull market, BTCFi sector valuation recovery, target $0.07~0.10, 3~4x increase, relying on capped token model and sector scarcity to follow the market rebound.
Neutral scenario: BTC stabilizes at $120,000–150,000, BTCFi becomes the main bull market theme; SatPay and Mobilum cooperate and launch, obtain payment license, ecosystem revenue repurchases CORE, dual staking brings lock-up demand, target $0.22~0.30, 9~13x increase.
Optimistic extreme scenario: super bull market, SatPay large-scale commercial use, massive BTC assets access CORE ecosystem, target $0.6~0.8, 26~34x increase, low probability.
Key risks: only 21 validator nodes, high governance concentration; significant uncertainty over SatPay license; block rewards continuously released yearly, long-term selling pressure exists. As the I Ching says, perfection is hard to achieve; 3x depends on the market, 10x depends on SatPay launch, 30x requires super sector market resonance, avoid heavy bets.The Hang Seng dropped 2.7% today, the largest bearish candle since July.
The direct reason is clear: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.34% (the highest since 2002), with global bond selling, and the Hong Kong stock market, being a high-beta market, took the first hit.
But there's also a structural reason for such a sharp drop: the A-shares market is closed, and the Hong Kong stock market is the only Chinese market open during the holiday, so global funds can only express their views on China by selling it off.
Tonight at 20:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next referee: expected new jobs are 84,000-90,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Weak data → cooling rate hike expectations → relief for the long end; strong data → 5.34% might just be halfway up the mountain.I seriously wanted to try contracts
but in the end, I still lost to recklessness
I lost all 30,000 I earned through ZEC two weeks ago 😭
Now only 30,000 principal remains
What I'm more certain of is that I won't play contracts anymore and will start a boring dollar-cost averaging mode
And I will focus my attention and energy on the dancing and bone-setting work I originally liked 🦴🎶
Starting to dollar-cost average BTC /ETH /SOL
Goal is to cut everything off 🔪 The most "bullish" month for Bitcoin has arrived
Let's review it for everyone
From 2013 until now, Bitcoin has experienced 13 Octobers.
It closed up 10 times and down 3 times.
Win rate: 76.9%.
Average return: +18.52%.
Median return: +12.73%.
The largest gain occurred in October 2013 — +60.79%.
First, let's review the just-ended September.
Bitcoin closed September up +6.33%.
The second highest September return in history, only behind 7.29% in the same period of 2024.
Ethereum was even stronger in September, +8.77%, also the second highest in history, only behind 14.53% in September 2016.
Isn't September usually a "correction month"? How did it rise?
Because this year's script is different.
What happens in October after a positive September historically? This is the most worth pondering.
In the past 13 years, the years with positive September closes were: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024.
How did October perform after these years?
September 2015 +2.3% → October +33.5%
September 2016 +6.4% → October +14.7%
September 2017 -7.7% (exception)
September 2019 -13.5% (exception)
September 2021 -7.4% (exception) Signal fulfilled! Bitcoin ate through the 85,000 sell wall, directly surging violently 📈🚀
The 85,000 USD sell wall that suppressed the market for a week was absorbed by buy orders, and many sell orders above were simultaneously withdrawn, greatly reducing upward selling pressure.
Today the market responded directly, with BTC surging from 84,400 all the way up, reaching a high of 86,888, firmly standing above 86,500. Now is not the time to "blindly buy the dip," but it’s not that you can’t buy either—it depends on what you buy.
Currently, BTC is around $84,700, down 31% from the $126,000 peak, which looks like a dip; however, the fear and greed index is at 72 (greed), not the despair zone of just over 10 like in 2022—true bottoms usually occur when "no one dares to mention buying the dip," and the sentiment has already rebounded.
More critical macro headwinds: The Fed just raised rates by 25bp to 3.75–4.00% in September, the first hike in 2023, with 16/18 officials expecting more hikes this year. The valuation ceiling for interest-free assets is suppressed during a rate hike cycle. Meanwhile, BTC dominance is high at 56.8–59.5%, and the altcoin season index is only 43 (confirmation requires 75), indicating that funds have not flowed into altcoins at all.
Practical approach:
BTC/ETH—can be dollar-cost averaged in batches, don’t go all in, treat $80,000–82,000 as a defense line;
Altcoins (including CORE and ORDI you asked about earlier)—this is not a "bottom," but a rebound within a downtrend channel. No sector rotation, continuous unlocking, most have no cash flow, buying the dip equals catching a falling knife, so only small positions for speculation;
If you really want to wait for a good price, wait until the greed index falls below 30 or BTC breaks above $80,000 with volume before discussing further.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
On September 30, the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending a 9-day consecutive inflow; the ETH ETF also had a net outflow of $59.6 million on the same day. It's not a crash, but rather the "institutional buying leg" being held back by long-term interest rates and risk-off sentiment.
My interpretation:
• BTC: The 7-day trend may not have reversed yet, but the single-day outflow has eaten up much of the weekly inflow. Volume near 84,000 is insufficient; the breakout depends on ETF inflows.
• ETH: ETF inflows are persistently weaker than BTC, with staking unlocks and lack of DeFi hits, the ETH/BTC price ratio continues to be under pressure.
• Market: Funding rates hover near zero, fear and greed return to neutral, leverage is being reduced, a typical "waiting for macro to give direction."
Operational advice, don’t get carried away:
• Don’t treat a single-day net outflow as the end of the bull market, nor as a buy-the-dip signal.
• Until ETH reclaims key zones, avoid dreaming of "independent strength."
• Keep positions light, wait for ETFs to turn positive for 2–3 consecutive days before considering adding positions.
Cooling capital heat ≠ death sentence for the bull market; it’s more like institutions shifting from "rushing in" to "picking positions."
Are you waiting to catch a pullback, or sitting out to watch the show first? Think of BTC as the North Star, ETH as the market thermometer, and SOL as the accelerator. Individually, they tell different stories. Together, they reveal how capital sentiment is shifting. ₿ BTC sets the direction: Stability builds confidence, while weakness can cool market sentiment. Ξ ETH measures capital rotation: Strength in ETH may signal a shift from capital preservation toward greater risk appetite. ⚡ SOL reflects risk appetite: Strong momentum shows high-beta capital becoming more actiBitcoin stands above $85,000, discussing the factors supporting the rebound.
As of early morning Eastern Time on October 2, BTC once reached around $86,600, up about 3.1% in 24 hours.
From the end of September, it first fell below $83,000, then reclaimed above $85,000, and market sentiment clearly eased.
1) The initial support actually came from inflation.
US August PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%; core PCE was 3.0% year-on-year. The data is not low, but milder than the market feared, cooling expectations for further rate hikes in October.
2) On the other hand, ETF money is still flowing in.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $2.65 billion in September, one of the best months in nearly a year. On October 1, there was another net inflow of $102.7 million, indicating that this wave of institutional capital inflow did not stop immediately due to the quarter-end.
3) But now we cannot only look at the positives.
The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34% a few days ago, and the US dollar index rose to a 17-month high. High interest rates and a strong dollar are environments that BTC generally dislikes.
4) What really needs to be watched next is the US September nonfarm payrolls.
The market expects about 90,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. If employment does not overheat again, the pressure for rate hikes in October can continue to ease. Conversely, if the data is too strong and US bond yields rise again, BTC will face pressure around $87,000.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turn to outflows, cooling capital heat
Previously, BTC spot ETFs had a trend of continuous net inflows for several days, but now both BTC and ETH spot ETFs have turned to net outflows, with institutional funds redeeming simultaneously, indicating a significant cooling in institutional buying enthusiasm this round. It is no longer a shift of funds from ETH to BTC, but rather both mainstream crypto assets are facing institutional deleveraging at the same time.
Personal view
The simultaneous outflow is a signal that needs attention, representing an overall decline in risk appetite among traditional institutions, not just a simple sector rotation. The core reason behind this is the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields; in a high-interest-rate environment, institutions actively reduce crypto asset exposure to realize previously accumulated floating profits.
However, it is not necessary to directly conclude that the trend has completely reversed. ETF capital flows themselves fluctuate repeatedly, and short-term redemptions do not equal long-term institutional liquidation. The key is to observe whether the outflows are short-term portfolio adjustments or will form continuous multi-day sustained redemptions. If large sustained outflows continue, selling pressure on the market will keep increasing.
Currently, the market lacks incremental funds to take over, and the market is very likely entering a weak consolidation pattern. Do not blindly bottom-fish or go long on contracts; leverage must be reduced at high levels, and strict stop-losses set. Do not expect a single positive factor to reverse the capital flow; macro interest rates remain the biggest variable. Which on-chain casino is the hottest right now?
I normalized the daily DEX trading volume since the market started on August 19 to 100, comparing five chains: Solana, Robinhood Chain, Base, BSC, and Ethereum. The results are shown in the chart.
The most discussed Robinhood Chain surged from $0.55B on August 19 to $3.67B on September 4, but has now fallen back to $1.58B. Although it has the highest increase in trading volume since August 19, the actual daily trading volume has been halved.
Solana, despite decent price performance, has on-chain trading volume even worse than Robinhood, dropping from $3.06B on August 19 to only $1.48B now.
The most stable performer is surprisingly Base, with $1.26B on August 19 and $1.28B now, almost unchanged.
The decline in Robinhood Chain's daily trading volume has also put pressure on concept coins like $UNI, $LIT, and $ARB. Especially $LIT, which saw its price drop over 15% after Robinhood announced it would launch perpetual contract business in the US using Bitstamp as the backend. Many are panic selling, but I still believe there may be a short-term turnaround.$ETH finally couldn't hold back, just broke through the upper edge of the 2750 range, now the price is 2751, exactly stuck at the resistance level
This position is quite critical; if it holds steady, it's a new phase, if not, it's a false breakout
On the 1-hour chart, the range is very clear, oscillating between 2660 and 2750 for several days, today finally volume increased pushing upwards, MACD golden cross, DIF has crossed above zero, short-term momentum is present, but RSI6 has already surged to 73, a bit overbought, RSI12 is only 62, still room left
Key levels: Upper resistance: 2750 (needs confirmation), 2807 (previous high, strong resistance)
Lower support: 2660 to 2670 (upper edge of range turned support), 2600 to 2620 (strong support)
Looking at data again, open interest has risen from a low, indicating capital inflow, the long-short account ratio fell from 1.66 to 0.95, shorts increased, it's normal to shake out some shorts before a rally
If it pulls back near 2750 with reduced volume and stops falling, then stands back above 2760, try a small long position with stop loss below 2730, first target 2807, then 2850
If volume breaks through 2807, pullback doesn't break it, then add longs with stop loss below 2780, target 2850+
If it falls below 2750 and rebounds fail to hold, that's a false breakout, then watch for pullback to 2660-2670
Just focus on 2750; if it holds, watch 2807; if not, wait for pullback to 2660-2670, keep light positions in contracts, and set stop losses well
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ETH The market has time zones, and the $SOL price increase this month has almost entirely occurred after dark Beijing time.
Breaking down the 30-day candlesticks by time segment, the Asian session accounts for nearly 30% of the volume, but if you add up the gains and losses in this segment one by one, the total is zero—a flat line. The European and American sessions account for over 60%, and the direction this month has come entirely from these two sessions. The daytime sideways candlesticks look inactive, but the momentum accumulates at night.
In the last seven days, the pattern has shifted. The European session continues to push upward, while the American session gradually releases volume, one candlestick at a time. The gains from Europe exceed all the losses from America. The money hasn’t left; it just changed time zones.
This has two practical uses for those watching the market.
During the few hours of daytime, nothing can be gleaned; the Asian session is naturally flat, so don’t interpret daytime quietness as lack of interest. If you really want to see movement, open the software after 4 PM Beijing time; the directional cues are all in those later hours.
The other use is even more practical. Since the Asian session doesn’t move directionally, placing orders without chasing or fleeing allows for calm entry and exit. Real position adjustments should be made during the day, leaving only monitoring at night. When the market moves directionally, people are asleep, so it doesn’t interfere with work.
Now the baton is in the hands of the European session. Just watch its volume; volume changes lead price changes by half a step. Watch volume first, then trust the price.On-chain data anomalies are concentrated on the OKX side, with 502 bitcoins transferred from dormant wallets since 2019, and 1,200 bitcoins moved again from early miner wallets dating back to 2011. This scale won't directly dump $GTC, but it indicates that old coins are seeking an exit on exchanges, and buying pressure on small-cap tokens will be further drained. Just paused briefly while waiting for order dispatch and glanced at the $GTC order book; support orders around 0.1284 are thin, and buying hasn't caught up.
$GTC is currently rubbing against the 0.382 level at 0.1287. The candlestick has already broken below EMA8 and EMA21. After the MACD death cross, the green bars have not expanded, indicating a slow decline rather than a sharp drop. On the liquidation map, a large number of short orders are pressing between 0.135 and 0.14, but capital shows no desire to test upward. If the 0.1275 support breaks, it will sweep long order liquidity between 0.121 and 0.118.
Trading strategy is mainly short on rebounds. Entry range is set between 0.1305 and 0.1320, with stop loss at 0.1382. First take profit at 0.1230, second take profit at 0.1200. If it directly breaks below 0.1275 with volume, light short positions can be chased, stop loss at 0.1312, and take profit below 0.1200.
$GTC
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
@OKX星球 The market is "as steady as Mount Tai," but the experience of holding Hakimi feels not so good when trading solo. Let's take a look at the data!
Data changes of the top 40 Hakimi holding addresses on 2026.10.2:
alpha: 1 million coins outflow
gate1: 3.1 million coins inflow
New entries in top 40: 3 people total, 2 transferred in, 1 increased position then reduced it
Dropped out of top 40: 3 people total, 1 fully sold, 1 transferred out, 1 reduced position
Top 40 increased positions: 4 people total, 2 increased positions, 2 transferred in
Top 40 reduced positions: 2 people total
Daily key summary for $Hakimi:
Among the 3 new addresses entering the top 40, 2 are transfers in, and the other increased position but soon started reducing, possibly paper hands. Only 1 address fully sold when dropping out of the top 40; the rest made small reductions or transfers out. Few people increased or reduced positions in the top 40, and the amounts were small. One address transferred in a large amount from Binance. Data fluctuations on alpha and gate are minimal, overall market volatility is low with no obvious changes. It's been half a month since the last listing on alpha, and the market basically hasn't changed at all. We can only sigh that Hakimi is truly as steady as Mount Tai. Solo traders want to ask the market maker: at least let Hakimi have some volatility so solo traders have something to write about. Brothers, we'll meet again next time!! Currently, I personally lean bullish; both BTC and ETH are slowly climbing, and the trend looks healthy, but since the non-farm payrolls report hasn't come out tonight, I dare not make any rash moves.
In terms of positions, all short positions on BTC have been fully closed, leaving only one short position on ETH hanging for now, just observing.
The biggest pressure now isn't the ETF, but the high interest rates. The higher the yield, the more suppressed the valuation of risk assets. If non-farm payrolls are weak, the market might bet on a pause in rate hikes, which is bullish; if non-farm payrolls are strong, expectations for more hikes within the year will rise, which is bearish. I personally think the probability of warmer data is higher, after all, the PCE is right there.
But before the news is finalized, I don't plan to open new positions. There are too many uncertainties, so being cautious doesn't hurt. I'll wait for the data to come out, see the direction clearly, then make a move.
$BTC $ETH #NonFarm #RateHikeExpectations$SOON sold off
This is the real-time market trading situation, a review:
1. It took over 5000u to pull up from 0.501 to 0.511
2. It only took about 50U to dip from 0.511 to 0.508
3. Today's market trend is downward, with the deepest depth at 14 meters
Here are my personal views:
1. Based on the previous upper bullish candle peak above 5, it is highly likely that this time the whale will pull the price up to around 1.
2. Altcoins are high risk, chasing highs and selling lows incurs outrageously high fees, so swing trading is the first choice.
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 The 2029 quantum target is not about predicting disaster, but about reverse engineering migration time.
The Ethereum protocol team aims to have the execution, consensus, and data layers quantum-resistant by December 2029, assuming a somewhat aggressive scenario where sufficiently strong quantum threats may emerge by 2030. This does not mean quantum computing will break $ETH exactly in 2030, nor that today's private keys are already invalid. The real issue is that large networks need years to replace signature systems: new algorithms, client implementations, account migration paths, hardware support, and user education are required. Preparation cannot start only after attack capabilities are publicly proven. The importance of Frame transactions and programmable account verification lies here, as they provide a protocol entry point for future signature scheme replacements. To be bullish on $ETH long-term, one must accept that security investments often occur before risks materialize. If the threat arrives later than expected, early preparation still reduces passivity; if it comes earlier, delaying by a few years may be irreparable. Serious long-termism is not about predicting dates but about allowing sufficient migration time for irreversible risks.
This commitment must also undergo periodic review. Quantum hardware progress, signature performance, and standards will change; the roadmap can be adjusted, but preparation must not stop just because there is no short-term attack.Using creator earnings as principal → Challenge to reach 10,000U
Start time: October 2, 2026, 16:47
There is only one source of principal: earnings from the Planet creator.
Currently, 10U has been allocated as challenge principal, with a loss of 2.5U so far, and the current net benchmark value is 7.5U.
Current positions
$ETH Perpetual | 100x
0.05 $ETH
Opening average price: 2709.27U
Current unrealized profit: +2.21U
Margin: 1.38U
Liquidation price: 2639.10U
$AKE Perpetual | 10x
1500 $AKE
Opening average price: 0.03191U
Current unrealized loss: -0.81U
Margin: 4.71U
Liquidation price: 0.02760U
No top-ups, no adding positions to save, once lost all, it ends; if 10,000U is earned, the challenge is successful.
This is not to prove whether 10U can get rich quickly.
What I want to record more is:
Can an ordinary creator, relying on money earned from continuously producing content, gradually roll it up to 10,000U.
Day one: principal 10U.
Now: 7.5U.
Goal: 10,000U.
The challenge officially begins. Nonfarm Payrolls Hit Tonight｜Direct Impact on the Crypto Market
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US September Nonfarm Payroll data will be released, the most important data recently.
The market expects an increase of 84,000-85,000 jobs, a sharp drop compared to August's 162,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
Combined with previous PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, and the Fed Vice Chair's statement that more data is needed before deciding on rate adjustments, the market has already lowered the probability of a rate hike in October.
Here’s the simple logic:
✅ Nonfarm data stronger than expected: indicates a hot job market, rate hike expectations rise, the dollar strengthens, and Bitcoin is likely to face downward pressure
✅ Nonfarm data weaker than expected: cooling employment, rate hike expectations further cool, favorable for the crypto market to strengthen
BTC has already gained about 3% in advance, reflecting pre-data expectations.
⚠️ Key reminder: After expectations are priced in, regardless of data quality, a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reversal is likely. Don’t chase orders just because the data meets expectations.
Tonight, focus on two key points:
1. The actual new employment number versus the expected 84,000-85,000
2. Whether the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%
Markets change rapidly, and the nonfarm night is highly volatile. Be sure to control your position size, manage risk, and avoid heavy bets on direction.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BCH $ARB This ID's viewpoint
On the 30-minute level, ARB started from the low point of 0.19105 and entered a central oscillation repair phase. Currently, it is testing near the upper edge of the central zone, which is a structure waiting for a breakout. Entry: wait for a secondary-level pullback to stabilize and a bottom fractal signal before entering; Stop loss: placed below the central zone's lower boundary (ZD).
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box is the 30-minute core central zone, with ZG around 0.210 and ZD around 0.200. After the previous high of 0.23450 and the bottom at 0.19105, the market has been oscillating back and forth within this central zone. The current price is running close to the upper edge of the central zone. If it breaks above ZG with volume and holds, a third buy signal can form, aiming to challenge the previous high of 0.2345; if it falls back into the central zone, the market will continue to consolidate; if it breaks below the low of 0.19105, this upward repair structure will be invalidated.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
The rebound from the bottom at 0.19105 showed obvious volume increase, with good buying support. Then it entered the central zone where volume gradually contracted, and selling pressure continued to be consumed. The current test near the upper edge of the central zone shows weak volume and no strong demand, making this low-volume test prone to a rise and fall. For an effective breakout, volume expansion is necessary to confirm buying strength.
Core Observation
Focus on the breakout effect at the 0.210 upper edge of the central zone. If volume increases and it holds above the upper edge, the third buy will form, giving bulls room to rise; if it fails to break the upper edge multiple times, it will likely fall back to oscillate within the central zone.Core assets are not chosen, they are the ones that survive
Newcomers often ask how to pick coins in a bull market.
The answer is not in the whitepaper.
What is this number:
$BTC has no team, no roadmap.
Its hash power is piled up there, that's its foundation.
How is this number calculated:
$ETH has been challenged many times, but developers are still there.
$SOL retains on-chain activity through low fees and high throughput.
$OKB has a fixed total supply and is connected to X Layer.
It has transformed from a stake certificate into a layer-two gateway.
Keep one from each of the four tracks to control drawdowns.
Betting on just one rises fast but falls fast too.
Only those that remain after a full cycle count as core.
Everything else is just a story.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $BTC $ETH BTC has recently been oscillating within a narrow range.
Looking back at several true bear-to-bull transition phases in history, after BTC rose above the 365D SMA, it basically did not effectively break below this line again during subsequent bull market corrections. The most notable exception was the March 2020 COVID-19 black swan event, when it briefly broke below but then recovered.